Reversal!

[arepo]

10-DAY 2-HOUR MICRO-TERM analysis

1. MACD (moving-averages)
shows double top pattern, representing the recent 'flattening' of prices.

2. Mass Index (volatility-based reversal signal)
reversal [short-term downtrend] will commence when the volatility calms back under the red/blue band

3. MFI (volume-based)
shows bearish divergence against the quick price recovery, partly due to decreasing volume slope

4. Chaikin Money Flow (also volume-based)
bearish divergence approaching a crossover signal



i rest my case.

[1714691697]

1714691697

[ElectricMucus]

gonna squeeze a couple of more cents out.

[jojo69]

at this point I don't dare hope

[arepo]

the mass index is the most important signal here. generally, the reversal doesn't take trend until the volatility at least peaks, and often not until it reaches back below the marked threshold. this is why i'm not surprised we're continuing slowly up. i just hope the top doesn't bubble up...

[arepo]

the mass index is the most important signal here. generally, the reversal doesn't take trend until the volatility at least peaks, and often not until it reaches back below the marked threshold. this is why i'm not surprised we're continuing slowly up. i just hope the top doesn't bubble up...

mass index just now touching threshold on the micro term, which should allow the noise from the movement to dissipate and the new trend to take shape. if prices continue to rise, that invalidates the reversal signal. if prices move within a range or down, that is a validation.

also, a nice bearish divergence forming in the stochastic oscillator.

[arepo]

1-MONTH 6-HOUR SHORT-TERM



mass index giving a reversal signal on the slightly longer term scale as well, although still has yet to settle.

[jl2012]

1-MONTH 6-HOUR SHORT-TERM

http://s8.postimage.org/6xxlhl7tx/winterbullrun_Vreversal.png

mass index giving a reversal signal on the slightly longer term scale as well, although still has yet to settle.

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

[arepo]

1-MONTH 6-HOUR SHORT-TERM

http://s8.postimage.org/6xxlhl7tx/winterbullrun_Vreversal.png

mass index giving a reversal signal on the slightly longer term scale as well, although still has yet to settle.

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

4-MONTH DAILY MID-TERM



other timescales indicate reversal territory as well. so no, not cherry-picking.

[mccorvic]

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS: BEARS WILL CONTINUE TO POST TERRIBLE THREADS IN HOPES THAT SOME HOW THERE POSTS WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT THE MARKET.

News at 11.

[arepo]

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS: BEARS WILL CONTINUE TO POST TERRIBLE THREADS IN HOPES THAT SOME HOW THERE POSTS WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT THE MARKET.

News at 11.

the market always tops during the peak of bullish sentiment. hope you like holding bags.

[jl2012]

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS: BEARS WILL CONTINUE TO POST TERRIBLE THREADS IN HOPES THAT SOME HOW THERE POSTS WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT THE MARKET.

News at 11.

the market always tops during the peak of bullish sentiment. hope you like holding bags.

As you are still bearish, we are far from the peak of bullish sentiment. 

[arepo]

As you are still bearish, we are far from the peak of bullish sentiment.  

i see what you did there

but the market exhibits frequency-dependent selection for individual profit. the first bears to wake up from hibernation win.

[zby]

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS: BEARS WILL CONTINUE TO POST TERRIBLE THREADS IN HOPES THAT SOME HOW THERE POSTS WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT THE MARKET.

News at 11.

the market always tops during the peak of bullish sentiment. hope you like holding bags.

That is true - but with that amount of media attention that we get recently there is a huge chance that there will be new money in the market.

[arepo]

That is true - but with that amount of media attention that we get recently there is a huge chance that there will be new money in the market.

markets are also anti-inductive. if everyone expects one behavior, it will do the opposite so as to minimize profits.

you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

[zby]

That is true - but with that amount of media attention that we get recently there is a huge chance that there will be new money in the market.

markets are also anti-inductive. if everyone expects one behavior, it will do the opposite so as to minimize profits.

you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

I kind of agree - but the point here is that there is a global scale.  I now expect something like the first bubble - and we are still in the run up to it.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

in two words: zero-sum

Yes, zero-sum game between currencies.  They are connected tanks.
Bitcoin monetary base in USD is 300M, fed monetary base is 2800 B .  I am not saying it's gonna shift in one clear go, but it is obvious that there is still quite some potential left 

[jl2012]

That is true - but with that amount of media attention that we get recently there is a huge chance that there will be new money in the market.

markets are also anti-inductive. if everyone expects one behavior, it will do the opposite so as to minimize profits.

you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

Look at the weekly chart in log scale, it's nothing comparable with the 2011 bubble, and we are still 18% below the top. By the way, most of the weekly candle are green simply because we are still at the take-off stage.

Zero-sum? Yesterday about 1M of USD was spent to pull it back from $21 to $26, and now we still have 3.4M of USD in the bid wall (AFAIK this is the all-time-high). There is lots of new money here.

[zby]

in two words: zero-sum

Yes, zero-sum game between currencies.  They are connected tanks.
Bitcoin monetary base in USD is 300M, fed monetary base is 2800 B .  I am not saying it's gonna shift in one clear go, but it is obvious that there is still quite some potential left 

There will be competing virtual currencies, now they are weak, because BitCoin has not yet reached any real barrier to grow - but there will be some.  That was the plan from the beginning (read Satoshi) - and it will happen at some point.

[arepo]

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

also, will you post these charts? i am interested in counterdata.

[jl2012]

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

also, will you post these charts? i am interested in counterdata.

e.g. look at the mass index at 12 hours interval, it is below the blue line since 6 Feb and we had a non-stop rally.

[arepo]

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

also, will you post these charts? i am interested in counterdata.

e.g. look at the mass index at 12 hours interval, it is below the blue line since 6 Feb and we had a non-stop rally.

i see this. the mass index sometimes gives false reversal signals. it has to be confirmed by actual price data. the crossover on the 9th was invalidated by a later breakout. it is just a volatility-triggered warning.

mass index just now touching threshold on the micro term, which should allow the noise from the movement to dissipate and the new trend to take shape. if prices continue to rise, that invalidates the reversal signal. if prices move within a range or down, that is a validation.

[mccorvic]

As you are still bearish, we are far from the peak of bullish sentiment.  

i see what you did there

but the market exhibits frequency-dependent selection for individual profit. the first bears to wake up from hibernation win.

Well, so far they've been losing money so....maybe 16th to wake up win? I'm not sure.

[arepo]

we're seeing major consolidation on both the 2-HR and 6-HR scales... expect a big breakout soon which will either mark the beginning of a mid-term downtrend or invalidate the reversal signal.

[The Fool]

Guys, it's called the weekend.

[cedivad]

Guys, it's called the weekend.

Like last weekend, uh?

[Vandroiy]

mass index just now touching threshold on the micro term, which should allow the noise from the movement to dissipate and the new trend to take shape. if prices continue to rise, that invalidates the reversal signal. if prices move within a range or down, that is a validation.

also, a nice bearish divergence forming in the stochastic oscillator.

I always wonder... does it belong to a chart analyst's job to try count the other chart analysts in the market?

Though I understand TA should work if your opponents are mostly trend-followers, isn't it a dangerous game if there are too many people using TA? Everyone would compete who reacts first on any signal. (Isn't TA also vulnerable to manipulative trade activity if it's strongly represented?)

It's apparent that we have people following the trend and also people using chart signals, but what might the ratio between them be? With an excess of either type, we get different instabilities. An excess of trend following makes us unstable against classical bubbles, while an excess of Technical Analysis should make the market very erratic on e.g. a trend break. (The spike two days ago might be a possible indicator for such behavior. No normal market force causes a selling chain reaction and then snaps back to an earlier straight line.)

With just the right ratio, TA could be quite effective. This is the kind of situation it was made for after all. Oh well, I'm too much of a chicken to play it, but I'm cheering for anyone with a good tactic.

[goodlord666]

Stop.


Rewind.


We can do even better than this.

[Luno]

The spike Thursday was possible a test or an attempt to lessen the $30 hump. It also had the effect of making it less attracttive to make a real dump for the weekend?

It could also be an attempt to get out of a leveraged position?

twice the amount sold was bought the following hours!

[jojo69]

stillllllllllllll waiting

[arepo]

stillllllllllllll waiting

for what? prices have flattened out since the knife. sure, no reversal has materialized, but the rally has been stopped. the market is in consolidation mode right now and is busy making up its mind... soon we will know.

EDIT:

this is exciting:

-- 6-HR mass index finally into true reversal territory, coinciding with a
-- bearish MACD crossover, and a
-- clear double top on the DPO!

not looking good for silver parity

[jl2012]

stillllllllllllll waiting

for what? prices have flattened out since the knife. sure, no reversal has materialized, but the rally has been stopped. the market is in consolidation mode right now and is busy making up its mind... soon we will know.

EDIT:

this is exciting:

-- 6-HR mass index finally into true reversal territory, coinciding with a
-- bearish MACD crossover, and a
-- clear double top on the DPO!

not looking good for silver parity

There is a bid wall at $27 waiting for you. Have you sold everything? This is your last chance!

[notme]

There is a bid wall at $27 waiting for you. Have you sold everything? This is your last chance!

I'm not so sure:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoin%2C%20buy%20usd%2C%20buy%20cad%2C%20buy%20eur%2C%20buy%20gbp&date=1%2F2011%2026m&cmpt=q

[arepo]

There is a bid wall at $27 waiting for you. Have you sold everything? This is your last chance!

there is an ask wall at $27.50. have you any usd left? this is your last chance for sub-$50 coins!!!111!!

but of course you don't have usd left. no one does.

anyway, this is normal market depth for a deeply consolidating market after a large move. it's what keeps the price within such a tight range and builds pressure for a breakout.

[jl2012]

There is a bid wall at $27 waiting for you. Have you sold everything? This is your last chance!

there is an ask wall at $27.50. have you any usd left? this is your last chance for sub-$50 coins!!!111!!

but of course you don't have usd left. no one does.

anyway, this is normal market depth for a deeply consolidating market after a large move. it's what keeps the price within such a tight range and builds pressure for a breakout.

No, I'm not going to all-in. I'm dollar cost averaging.

The USD on bid side is at its all time high. There is plenty of USD but just don't want to buy @$27.5. Big wales like Mr. Loaded has bought too many cheap coins during last dip so they are not going to buy more, at least temporarily.

On the other hand, bears are not selling despite the bid walls at 27.15 and 27. $27 should give bears a decent profit no matter what price they bought. Instead, the bid wall at $27 is keep strengthening.

Conclusion: The bull has run for over a month and needs some rest. Plenty of USD on the bid wall waiting for the next knife (read: pig)

[arepo]

On the other hand, bears are not selling despite the bid walls at 27.15 and 27. $27 should give bears a decent profit no matter what price they bought. Instead, the bid wall at $27 is keep strengthening.

Conclusion: The bull has run for over a month and needs some rest. Plenty of USD on the bid wall waiting for the next knife (read: pig)

you can't rule out a downwards breakout just because it hasn't happened yet... the market depth isn't that asymmetrical. the market is still unsure. if it doesn't happen for a long enough time, the market depth will begin to reflect the support you mentioned above. it's still too soon to call.

[zby]

On the other hand, bears are not selling despite the bid walls at 27.15 and 27. $27 should give bears a decent profit no matter what price they bought. Instead, the bid wall at $27 is keep strengthening.

Conclusion: The bull has run for over a month and needs some rest. Plenty of USD on the bid wall waiting for the next knife (read: pig)

you can't rule out a downwards breakout just because it hasn't happened yet... the market depth isn't that asymmetrical. the market is still unsure. if it doesn't happen for a long enough time, the market depth will begin to reflect the support you mentioned above. it's still too soon to call.

I think you are mostly right that the optimists have run out of money - but there is too much bitcoin news - that means new money will come, not now - but it mobilizes bulls to wait a bit more.

[zby]

My prediction at this point is that the positive feedback got ignited and it will go up until there is some major bad news

[Luno]

The bidwaller must have some extra cash to throw in if this backfires...!

Without the wall there is a lot less on the buy side, you know.

[KTE]

you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

That's a silly and narrow minded argument to make regarding BTC. Zero-sum only applies to a closed market, and a closed marked would require a saturated market cap, which is quite obviously not the case with BTC.

Also, pyramidical hierarchies are unsustainable, sure, but there will always be an underlying pyramidical profit hierarchy in BTC adopters until we get closer to market cap saturation.

[arepo]

you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

That's a silly and narrow minded argument to make regarding BTC. Zero-sum only applies to a closed market, and a closed marked would require a saturated market cap, which is quite obviously not the case with BTC.

Also, pyramidical hierarchies are unsustainable, sure, but there will always be an underlying pyramidical profit hierarchy in BTC adopters until we get closer to market cap saturation.

both of these are very good points, and have been brought up elsewhere as well.

as for an update for this thread -- anyone seen the btc price lately? this is exactly what i was expecting. i want to wait for the candle to close before i post any more analysis though. have fun trading the swings and i hope someone out their heeded my call and made some money off of the latest knife!

as always, if you used my analysis to your benefit in any way, please contribute and i will continue to post publicly, free of charge. i do put a lot of effort into my work and subscription-only analysis leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

arepo
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz

[gmiwenht]

[deleted]

[arepo]

as always, if you used my analysis to your benefit in any way, please contribute and i will continue to post publicly, free of charge. i do put a lot of effort into my work and subscription-only analysis leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

link ?

... to what? i post the conclusions of my analysis here. if you have any questions or special requests i'll be more than happy to elaborate.

[jojo69]

this thing really is starting to look like it might roll over

[arepo]

this thing really is starting to look like it might roll over

still too much noise to say. the bear signals on the daily chart are not strong enough, and we're still within strong support/resistance trendlines.

-===-



-===-

if you notice, the same triangle pattern with bearish breakout happened around the first of February and yet we continued the uptrend thereafter. still could just be a consolidating bull market letting off some steam. nothing conclusive yet...

status: correction

reversal risk: medium

-arepo
if you profit from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz

[arepo]

checkmate, bulls!

DAILY scale:

-===-

-===-

the mass index is the most important signal here. generally, the reversal doesn't take trend until the volatility at least peaks, and often not until it reaches back below the marked threshold.

market status: consolidating bull trend

reversal risk: high

a completed MACD crossover should confirm:

-===-

-===-

-arepo
if you profit from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz

[rpietila]

checkmate, bulls!

Looks convincing. How low do you think we'll go? How much do you think I should deposit to Mt.Gox to profit the most?

I have been waiting for so long to finally buy my first coins, and it is not only me - there are dozens in the same situation that I know, thousands in the city, and millions in the world. We want correction, and we want it now.

[Odalv]

checkmate, bulls!

Looks convincing. How low do you think we'll go? How much do you think I should deposit to Mt.Gox to profit the most?

I have been waiting for so long to finally buy my first coins, and it is not only me - there are dozens in the same situation that I know, thousands in the city, and millions in the world. We want correction, and we want it now.

lol, mayby correction to $60 will be soon :-)

[lebing]

I have been waiting for so long to finally buy my first coins, and it is not only me - there are dozens in the same situation that I know, thousands in the city, and millions in the world. We want correction, and we want it now.

Its exactly this reason that its not going to go down. Buy tonight or kiss your opportunity to buy under 30 goodbye. Once it crosses 32, its not going back under.

[bitcoinBull]

checkmate, bulls!

the mass index is the most important signal here. generally, the reversal doesn't take trend until the volatility at least peaks, and often not until it reaches back below the marked threshold.

I don't think you are using mass index correctly here. You were using them correctly on the 6-hour and 2-hour charts, because on those scales the bulges corresponded to counter-trend, downward volatility bursts.

But the reason the MACD and the Slow Stochastic don't seem to be confirming is because they are oscillators. They work when the system is closed, but go out of whack if new money is entering the system (or leaving).

That's why the non-oscillating indicators (OBV and Accumulation/Distribution) work better for evaluating the medium/long-term trends, IMHO (see below).

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

also, will you post these charts? i am interested in counterdata.

e.g. look at the mass index at 12 hours interval, it is below the blue line since 6 Feb and we had a non-stop rally.

If OBV were unchanged on an upward burst, you could expect a reversal/retrace to follow. But here the trend is up and strong. This should relieve some fear of reversal. As long as we haven't gone exponential and bid depth stays strong, I don't see reason to expect it unless there's some bad news which triggers a big downward burst (one visible on the 12-hour or daily chart).

[arepo]

+1 for the good chart. very good analysis there. i think it may be time to let this thread die, finally.

[bitcoinBull]

+1 for the good chart. very good analysis there. i think it may be time to let this thread die, finally.

Thanks. You, good sir, are a scholar and a gentleman. I learned a lot analyzing your charts, the result you see above.

until the reversal
Cheers!

[oakpacific]

Arepo is a good guy, he doesn't talk trash, just a bit easily overexcited sometimes. Besides, long term he is a bull, don't be mistaken.

I think we should welcome any bearish input as long as it's not trolling or devised to incite fears.

[jwzguy]

Arepo is a good guy, he doesn't talk trash, just a bit easily overexcited sometimes. Besides, long term he is a bull, don't be mistaken.

I think we should welcome any bearish input as long as it's not trolling or devised to incite fears.

He doesn't talk trash? "Checkmate, bulls?" 

Glad we're all on the same side in the end.

[oakpacific]

Arepo is a good guy, he doesn't talk trash, just a bit easily overexcited sometimes. Besides, long term he is a bull, don't be mistaken.

I think we should welcome any bearish input as long as it's not trolling or devised to incite fears.

He doesn't talk trash? "Checkmate, bulls?" 

Glad we're all on the same side in the end.

That's what I would call overexcitement, trash is when you say something which you don't even care to back up.

Yup, as we all know, bitcoin is a Go game, there is no such thing as a "checkmate" even if the downtrend were confirmed.

[bitcoinBull]

For anyone curious, arepo posed some good questions in a thread I started back in April at $5 about OBV.

Thanks for the on-going healthy and articulate skepticism.

[arepo]

For anyone curious, arepo posed some good questions in a thread I started back in April at $5 about OBV.

Thanks for the on-going healthy and articulate skepticism.

thanks for the backup, and you too, oak.

although i was pretty pretentious in that thread

Yup, as we all know, bitcoin is a Go game, there is no such thing as a "checkmate" even if the downtrend were confirmed.

and i see what you did there hah