Reversal!

[arepo]

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

also, will you post these charts? i am interested in counterdata.

e.g. look at the mass index at 12 hours interval, it is below the blue line since 6 Feb and we had a non-stop rally.

i see this. the mass index sometimes gives false reversal signals. it has to be confirmed by actual price data. the crossover on the 9th was invalidated by a later breakout. it is just a volatility-triggered warning.

mass index just now touching threshold on the micro term, which should allow the noise from the movement to dissipate and the new trend to take shape. if prices continue to rise, that invalidates the reversal signal. if prices move within a range or down, that is a validation.

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[mccorvic]

As you are still bearish, we are far from the peak of bullish sentiment.  

i see what you did there

but the market exhibits frequency-dependent selection for individual profit. the first bears to wake up from hibernation win.

Well, so far they've been losing money so....maybe 16th to wake up win? I'm not sure.

[arepo]

we're seeing major consolidation on both the 2-HR and 6-HR scales... expect a big breakout soon which will either mark the beginning of a mid-term downtrend or invalidate the reversal signal.

[The Fool]

Guys, it's called the weekend.

[cedivad]

Guys, it's called the weekend.

Like last weekend, uh?

[Vandroiy]

mass index just now touching threshold on the micro term, which should allow the noise from the movement to dissipate and the new trend to take shape. if prices continue to rise, that invalidates the reversal signal. if prices move within a range or down, that is a validation.

also, a nice bearish divergence forming in the stochastic oscillator.

I always wonder... does it belong to a chart analyst's job to try count the other chart analysts in the market?

Though I understand TA should work if your opponents are mostly trend-followers, isn't it a dangerous game if there are too many people using TA? Everyone would compete who reacts first on any signal. (Isn't TA also vulnerable to manipulative trade activity if it's strongly represented?)

It's apparent that we have people following the trend and also people using chart signals, but what might the ratio between them be? With an excess of either type, we get different instabilities. An excess of trend following makes us unstable against classical bubbles, while an excess of Technical Analysis should make the market very erratic on e.g. a trend break. (The spike two days ago might be a possible indicator for such behavior. No normal market force causes a selling chain reaction and then snaps back to an earlier straight line.)

With just the right ratio, TA could be quite effective. This is the kind of situation it was made for after all. Oh well, I'm too much of a chicken to play it, but I'm cheering for anyone with a good tactic.

[goodlord666]

Stop.


Rewind.


We can do even better than this.

[Luno]

The spike Thursday was possible a test or an attempt to lessen the $30 hump. It also had the effect of making it less attracttive to make a real dump for the weekend?

It could also be an attempt to get out of a leveraged position?

twice the amount sold was bought the following hours!

[jojo69]

stillllllllllllll waiting

[arepo]

stillllllllllllll waiting

for what? prices have flattened out since the knife. sure, no reversal has materialized, but the rally has been stopped. the market is in consolidation mode right now and is busy making up its mind... soon we will know.

EDIT:

this is exciting:

-- 6-HR mass index finally into true reversal territory, coinciding with a
-- bearish MACD crossover, and a
-- clear double top on the DPO!

not looking good for silver parity

[jl2012]

stillllllllllllll waiting

for what? prices have flattened out since the knife. sure, no reversal has materialized, but the rally has been stopped. the market is in consolidation mode right now and is busy making up its mind... soon we will know.

EDIT:

this is exciting:

-- 6-HR mass index finally into true reversal territory, coinciding with a
-- bearish MACD crossover, and a
-- clear double top on the DPO!

not looking good for silver parity

There is a bid wall at $27 waiting for you. Have you sold everything? This is your last chance!

[notme]

There is a bid wall at $27 waiting for you. Have you sold everything? This is your last chance!

I'm not so sure:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoin%2C%20buy%20usd%2C%20buy%20cad%2C%20buy%20eur%2C%20buy%20gbp&date=1%2F2011%2026m&cmpt=q

[arepo]

There is a bid wall at $27 waiting for you. Have you sold everything? This is your last chance!

there is an ask wall at $27.50. have you any usd left? this is your last chance for sub-$50 coins!!!111!!

but of course you don't have usd left. no one does.

anyway, this is normal market depth for a deeply consolidating market after a large move. it's what keeps the price within such a tight range and builds pressure for a breakout.

[jl2012]

There is a bid wall at $27 waiting for you. Have you sold everything? This is your last chance!

there is an ask wall at $27.50. have you any usd left? this is your last chance for sub-$50 coins!!!111!!

but of course you don't have usd left. no one does.

anyway, this is normal market depth for a deeply consolidating market after a large move. it's what keeps the price within such a tight range and builds pressure for a breakout.

No, I'm not going to all-in. I'm dollar cost averaging.

The USD on bid side is at its all time high. There is plenty of USD but just don't want to buy @$27.5. Big wales like Mr. Loaded has bought too many cheap coins during last dip so they are not going to buy more, at least temporarily.

On the other hand, bears are not selling despite the bid walls at 27.15 and 27. $27 should give bears a decent profit no matter what price they bought. Instead, the bid wall at $27 is keep strengthening.

Conclusion: The bull has run for over a month and needs some rest. Plenty of USD on the bid wall waiting for the next knife (read: pig)

[arepo]

On the other hand, bears are not selling despite the bid walls at 27.15 and 27. $27 should give bears a decent profit no matter what price they bought. Instead, the bid wall at $27 is keep strengthening.

Conclusion: The bull has run for over a month and needs some rest. Plenty of USD on the bid wall waiting for the next knife (read: pig)

you can't rule out a downwards breakout just because it hasn't happened yet... the market depth isn't that asymmetrical. the market is still unsure. if it doesn't happen for a long enough time, the market depth will begin to reflect the support you mentioned above. it's still too soon to call.

[zby]

On the other hand, bears are not selling despite the bid walls at 27.15 and 27. $27 should give bears a decent profit no matter what price they bought. Instead, the bid wall at $27 is keep strengthening.

Conclusion: The bull has run for over a month and needs some rest. Plenty of USD on the bid wall waiting for the next knife (read: pig)

you can't rule out a downwards breakout just because it hasn't happened yet... the market depth isn't that asymmetrical. the market is still unsure. if it doesn't happen for a long enough time, the market depth will begin to reflect the support you mentioned above. it's still too soon to call.

I think you are mostly right that the optimists have run out of money - but there is too much bitcoin news - that means new money will come, not now - but it mobilizes bulls to wait a bit more.

[zby]

My prediction at this point is that the positive feedback got ignited and it will go up until there is some major bad news

[Luno]

The bidwaller must have some extra cash to throw in if this backfires...!

Without the wall there is a lot less on the buy side, you know.

[KTE]

you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

That's a silly and narrow minded argument to make regarding BTC. Zero-sum only applies to a closed market, and a closed marked would require a saturated market cap, which is quite obviously not the case with BTC.

Also, pyramidical hierarchies are unsustainable, sure, but there will always be an underlying pyramidical profit hierarchy in BTC adopters until we get closer to market cap saturation.

[arepo]

you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

That's a silly and narrow minded argument to make regarding BTC. Zero-sum only applies to a closed market, and a closed marked would require a saturated market cap, which is quite obviously not the case with BTC.

Also, pyramidical hierarchies are unsustainable, sure, but there will always be an underlying pyramidical profit hierarchy in BTC adopters until we get closer to market cap saturation.

both of these are very good points, and have been brought up elsewhere as well.

as for an update for this thread -- anyone seen the btc price lately? this is exactly what i was expecting. i want to wait for the candle to close before i post any more analysis though. have fun trading the swings and i hope someone out their heeded my call and made some money off of the latest knife!

as always, if you used my analysis to your benefit in any way, please contribute and i will continue to post publicly, free of charge. i do put a lot of effort into my work and subscription-only analysis leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

arepo
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