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Author Topic: BTC/USD: Ready for "The Running of the Bears"?  (Read 19425 times)
ATC777
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March 27, 2013, 12:43:11 AM
 #141

well so far we have seen what we called a quadruple top... Smiley

You really should give it a rest... I'd hate to think that your reading comprehension skills are that poor... Roll Eyes

At no point did I ever point at any particular price and call it an exact top (that's virtually impossible to get right). Instead, I highlighted some potential areas of interest in the charts, explained what technical indicators can imply and offered potential scenarios for a price correction. And I disclosed the fact that I have sold and am currently on the sidelines watching this thing... You can disregard technicals if you like, but don't come crying to me when you buy into a massive head & shoulders and get taken to the woodshed (which might happen sooner than you think).

It's easy for everyone to think they're expert traders in roaring bull market, like so many did in the DotCom boom, but it will be interesting to see how many of you are left standing the first time we hit a bump in the road.  Wink

Regards,

--ATC--

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Zangelbert Bingledack
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March 27, 2013, 01:15:54 AM
 #142

No, the whole point is you don't need to risk short-term trading in a bull market, and shouldn't risk short-term trading in a meteoric bull market or else you risk - yes, risk - losing all or part of your position. For it to be worth it, the exceptionalness of your trading skill has to be larger than the exponent of Bitcoin's exponential growth. That's a tall order.

We are going to (apparently already did) take your position away from you and you'll likely have to pay dearly to get part of it back.

You may be smart enough to be a successful trader, but it seems you're not discerning enough to know when that intelligence is irrelevant. Dumb people who just know to buy and hold will continue to shrink your position in this massive bull run until you gain that wisdom.
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March 27, 2013, 01:26:11 AM
 #143

well so far we have seen what we called a quadruple top... Smiley

You really should give it a rest... I'd hate to think that your reading comprehension skills are that poor... Roll Eyes

At no point did I ever point at any particular price and call it an exact top (that's virtually impossible to get right). Instead, I highlighted some potential areas of interest in the charts, explained what technical indicators can imply and offered potential scenarios for a price correction. And I disclosed the fact that I have sold and am currently on the sidelines watching this thing... You can disregard technicals if you like, but don't come crying to me when you buy into a massive head & shoulders and get taken to the woodshed (which might happen sooner than you think).

It's easy for everyone to think they're expert traders in roaring bull market, like so many did in the DotCom boom, but it will be interesting to see how many of you are left standing the first time we hit a bump in the road.  Wink

Regards,

--ATC--

That's not my point my point.
If I were you,I'd stop recommending anything... Smiley
even more... you should "tip" the people that follow your poor advice since you ask for tips when giving advice... seems only fair... since your TA doesn't have a disclaimer that says that people should seek guidance with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No, it's easy to think you know anything when in fact, it's been proven that your analysis does not apply to bitcoin, your advise, so far has been incorrect, and you lost money, or as you like to call it, you lost an opportunity.

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March 27, 2013, 01:53:07 AM
 #144

That's not my point my point.

So much LOL here I probably shouldn't even touch it... but I'm not sure what is your point your point... Did you make a point a point?  Roll Eyes

I thought I'd succeeded in making peace with you several pages back, but I'm beginning to think you're simply determined to be an arrogant douchebag who has nothing better to do than insult other people in vain attempts to make yourself look good (which unfortunately has failed  Undecided). I'm a pretty easy-going guy, and I don't like to hold grudges... but I must admit I've rarely encountered anyone with such an abrasive personality.

If I were you,I'd stop recommending anything... Smiley

If I were you I would stop being such a ______________ ... <-- I'll leave that to your imagination.  Smiley

even more... you should "tip" the people that follow your poor advice since you ask for tips when giving advice... seems only fair...

Give me your wallet address... the day you go broke I will be kind enough to help you out. Ramen noodles don't come cheap!

since your TA doesn't have a disclaimer that says that people should seek guidance with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

This is a speculation forum, and people are going to have different opinions on how to speculate. This is normal. I see people with opinions different from mine all over the internet, but I've never managed to get my panties tied in knots like you have. And I respect the readers here enough so as not to assume they are complete idiots... If anyone here is naive enough to take out a second mortgage and follow the recommendations of a guy on the internet with their entire life's savings then they had no business in the speculation business...

No, it's easy to think you know anything when in fact, it's been proven that your analysis does not apply to bitcoin, your advise, so far has been incorrect [...]

Oh, it's been "proven" now, has it? Dude, c'mon... I'm not sure if I should give you the "Troll of the Year" award or pray for you... Roll Eyes

[...] and you lost money, or as you like to call it, you lost an opportunity.

LOLOLOL... Last time I checked I still had exactly the same amount of money as when I sold my coins. Taking a profit has never hurt anyone. You have this ass-backwards. You would be right if bitcoin was our national currency or if the majority of the world's population accepted bitcoin, but at this point in time bitcoin is still a very small, niche currency. You can't go into Walmart and buy groceries with bitcoins. Where I am from, the US dollar is still the base currency. Either you are incredibly confused or you have the most distorted perception of financial risk I've ever heard tell of...

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March 27, 2013, 03:21:45 AM
 #145

Give the guy (ATC) a break. This is, after all, the Speculation thread, not the This is Exactly What is Going to Happen thread. He obviously put a lot of time and thought into his analysis, and I enjoyed reviewing it. Would you rather he just didn't post it? Should we burn all the threads that prove not to be 100% accurate?
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March 27, 2013, 04:15:40 AM
 #146

Give the guy (ATC) a break. This is, after all, the Speculation thread, not the This is Exactly What is Going to Happen thread. He obviously put a lot of time and thought into his analysis, and I enjoyed reviewing it. Would you rather he just didn't post it? Should we burn all the threads that prove not to be 100% accurate?

Nah, I'm done giving him crap... it's just fun to see how these kind of guys think they can throw a few big words into a TA and they  will sound smart, and then when they are wrong they try to minimize their mistakes.
I hope he learned a lesson from this. I won't comment on this thread anymore. I'll let him and his hundreds of thousands of dollars leave in peace!
Plus, he's the one that started again with his comments, I didn't post any comments directed to him anymore, so I'll be the bigger person here and I'll be quiet now.

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March 27, 2013, 06:19:15 AM
 #147

Nah, I'm done giving him crap... it's just fun to see how these kind of guys think they can throw a few big words into a TA and they  will sound smart, and then when they are wrong they try to minimize their mistakes.
I hope he learned a lesson from this. I won't comment on this thread anymore. I'll let him and his hundreds of thousands of dollars leave in peace!
Plus, he's the one that started again with his comments, I didn't post any comments directed to him anymore, so I'll be the bigger person here and I'll be quiet now.

I don't see why we don't just discuss Bitcoin without getting personal... you say "I'm done giving him crap" but then you make another smart-ass comment or two (e.g., "I'll let him and his hundreds of thousands of dollars leave in peace!"). You know as well as I do that I did not say I'm holding multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars, but that TA has brought me several hundred thousand in trading profits (meaning over the course of years). You've spent a lot of your time trying your best to attack me on everything you perceive as a chink in my armor, and working hard to distort what I've said to suit your trolling endeavor... time you could've used reading a good book, learning a new skill or perhaps discussing Bitcoin in a civilized fashion. Your behavior is the problem, not me or my thread... And it's your behavior (not your opinions on the price of Bitcoin) that I take issue with.

Give the guy (ATC) a break. This is, after all, the Speculation thread, not the This is Exactly What is Going to Happen thread. He obviously put a lot of time and thought into his analysis, and I enjoyed reviewing it. Would you rather he just didn't post it? Should we burn all the threads that prove not to be 100% accurate?

I appreciate the looking out, but I'm sure he will try to attack again. But we can hope not, and we can also hope that we can just discuss bitcoin and trading...  Undecided

And you are right, this wasn't a this is exactly what's going to happen at the exact price of $XX.xx thread. I'm still unsure what's being called "inaccurate" though because nothing has yet happened that is out of line with my expectation. The point of my thread is that I feel we are very near the end of a parabolic surge in price and a correction is coming soon. And reaching at or near $100 was not off the table. A lot of people want the price to go to 100 and believe it will go to 100, and it just might. And it's my thinking that if we do stretch up to 100 it will most likely be a very long, rapid move -- the situation will then deteriorate into panic selling. Not unless we punch through $100 and stabilize there will I be surprised...

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March 27, 2013, 06:21:10 AM
 #148

Give the guy (ATC) a break. This is, after all, the Speculation thread, not the This is Exactly What is Going to Happen thread. He obviously put a lot of time and thought into his analysis, and I enjoyed reviewing it. Would you rather he just didn't post it? Should we burn all the threads that prove not to be 100% accurate?
yes  Cheesy

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March 27, 2013, 06:28:48 AM
 #149

A little teddy bear walked out to the street and here is this shit going on



Who the hell could have expected that!

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March 27, 2013, 06:30:45 AM
 #150

I don't see why we don't just discuss Bitcoin without getting personal...

Welcome to Bitcointalk.  Cheesy

One off NP-Hard.
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March 27, 2013, 07:20:32 AM
 #151

A little teddy bear walked out to the street and here is this shit going on



Who the hell could have expected that!


Looks like fun.   Cheesy

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March 27, 2013, 07:25:27 AM
 #152

...Even gold and silver markets are rigged...

Remember the famous MtGox account with 500,000BTC in it? That's a large pile of play money in a relatively small market.

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March 27, 2013, 07:26:04 AM
 #153

If you read this post, please never share the info with anyone, it is too valuable.
Promise or don't read anymore.   Cheesy

...shouldn't risk short-term trading in a meteoric bull market or else...

Is it a a meteoric bull market?
Yes obviously.

You shouldn't risk short-term trading?
Fact: Every time the market corrects 5% to 35% your buy and hold dogma (temporarily) loses the entire 5% to 35%.
Solution: Edit: ____ as a ____, totally separate from your precious buy and hold stash, and...
Make frequent trades through _____ and _____ the market. Important! you need to know ___ _____ .
<joke>
Tip me and I'll fill in the blanks
</joke?>


More facts: Since March 3rd BTC is up almost exactly $50
Buy and hold = +$50

We have had brief down turns of at least
$16
$10
$4+
$12
$5.5+
and from ~74.90 to low $52 was a huge
$22.50+
and several others of at least $3.

Adding up only the ones above the last line, we get down/back up moves of $70+


Current Stats:
Buy and hold = +$50
down/back up moves of $70+ (Note: This number is really much higher, the estimate is conservative)

Does everyone/anyone know how to make low risk money off of those facts?
I'm *not* suggesting hitting the exact top bottom every time (small moves equal small fast profits, big moves equal bigger fast profits), but am saying the opportunities are amazing.

Please do not tell anyone else, let's just keep this between you and me.

BTCBTCBTC
ps. I had to spend most of my fun money on helping a family member with medical emergencies/bills, please send a generous tip here:
BTC
15DYJpWJe9H1YofsNQbP9JEWWNn7XPZgbS  |  LTC:  LTgZUWRqFf9DVADQTbPVEW3BxQUku5uF99


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March 27, 2013, 07:31:53 AM
 #154

I'm sorry, my friend, but it's you who does not understand... and don't feel bad, because you're not alone in having no clue what technical analysis is, how/why it's used and how it works. So I will, again, try to be helpful and explain this in a very simple, easy-to-get fashion not only for your benefit but for the benefit of the community...

Technical analysis does not concern itself with the underlying asset, but instead focuses on the behavior of the human beings buying and selling that asset (and nowadays the bots as well -- which are coded to use TA of all things). It can be anything; a stock, commodities, currency, tulips, real estate, interest rates, money (e.g., gold or silver) and even non-financial sets of data. In fact, I know a doctor who analyzes candlestick charts of his patient's blood-sugar levels and is able to accurately forecast how each patient will respond to different types of food and medication (one of the coolest forms of TA I've ever seen). Interestingly enough, he is also a successful investor. Bitcoin has all of the necessary elements required to use traditional (financial) technical analysis: 1) price 2) it is bought and sold 3) past market data and information.

Technical analysis is sort of a study of "mass psychology"; the psychology of "the crowd". Human beings can behave in very predictable patterns, and often repeat the same behaviors over and over. We are still the same creatures we were 50 years ago, 100 years ago and beyond. And it is unlikely we will change anytime soon. And it is also unlikely that our key "money emotions" (e.g., greed and fear) will be changing anytime soon. Our innate greed pushes us to buy something we believe will bring us pleasure or increase our wealth, and our fear of losing money drives us to sell things before the value decreases causing a material or financial loss.

Where does Bitcoin derive its value? From scarcity? No... there are plenty of things that are unique and scarce which aren't worth anything. I can pick a booger out of my nose that is unlike any other booger ever picked, but I doubt people will be lining up to buy it for thousands of dollars (or even a penny). So if it's not scarcity, what is it? Bitcoin, like all other things, derives its value from our belief in its value. In fact, the concepts of "money" and "value" are abstract concepts our species has invented for the benefit (or as some would argue, to the detriment) of our own society. If you throw a handful of $100 bills into the air in a nightclub people will push, shove and fight to get them... toss a handful of $100 bills into a cage full of cats and they will not be aroused (in fact they might end up urinating on the cash lol). While I share a similar philosophy to jubalix about the evils of central banks, fractional reserve banking and the merits of bitcoin, this absolutely does not exempt bitcoin from the basic social and economic forces that push and pull all things financial; those very things technical analysts care about.

You can look at any bitcoin price chart priced in any currency on any time-frame and you will see a plethora of well-known technical patterns which behaved exactly the same way they have in the past with other financial assets. A BTC/USD chart, for example, is full of patterns like double/triple tops, double/triple bottoms, tombstones, cup & handles, head & shoulders (and inverted h&s), you name it. We can also see the exact same indicators we use on stocks, futures and other assets behaving the same way with Bitcoin as they do with other assets. In fact, the bots trading on MtGox and BTC-E (some of which are making loads of money) are using TA to trigger trades and manage risk.

Technical analysis can work with anything, my friends. Sometimes (in fact, quite often) the analyst is wrong. He/she misses something important, draws the wrong conclusion from the data or makes a bad call... sometimes a major market-moving event occurs that totally changes everything and overrides the factors that were previously in play... But TA is not purely about "right vs wrong". It's about looking for hints, ideas and opportunity... it's about making forecasts and educated guesses rather than making "predictions"... black and white logic does not work here. The great thing about using technical analysis with a good risk management strategy is that you can be wrong more often that you're right and still be highly profitable. TA is a tool, not a religion. And you're a hell of a lot better off with a good toolset than you are blindly stumbling about in the dark and making trading decisions based on philosophical rhetoric or political ideology.

That will be all, for now...  Smiley

Regards,

--ATC--

simple maths proves you wrong if TA could return you even 0.5% then each day you could make this, which gives over 10 years
P(t) = P(1.005)^3650 = 80,561,104.4.

No one has invested $1 and returned 80 Million with TA over a 10 year period.

Plenty of people and institutions have been trading using TA for 10 - 30 years

over 30 years it is 5.22849E+23, that's more money that there is in the universe

so keep sucking it up while the hard maths shows you up.

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March 27, 2013, 08:01:47 AM
 #155

@ jubalix: No offense to you, personally, but that is the silliest thing I've heard anyone say about TA yet!  Grin

Bit_Happy makes a very good point, except I wouldn't even call "buy and hold" a real "strategy"... I heard a couple people mention holding their coins through the 2011 spike and crash, and still holding those same coins. That's not really something to be proud of, imho, and wasn't a wise financial decision. Imagine how much better those people would've done if they'd sold their coins for $30 (shit, even in the $20 or even $15) and then bought bitcoin again when it was near its lows. That would be a lot of money, especially if they had a good bit of coin to begin with.

Many people had thousands of coins they mined on their CPUs. And only a few of those people are actually "rich" from their bitcoin endeavors. Just imagine starting in the early days of bitcoin and mining 1,000 BTC on your CPU. Then you made the wise decision to sell near the 2011 peak (let's say $22.50) and walked away with $22,500 USD. Then you used that $22.5k to re-create your position for $5/BTC. You'd have been able to purchase 4,500 BTC, which today would have a net value of over $360,000. Not bad eh?

But what did most people do? They kept on buying BTC as the price climbed towards the peak, then panicked and sold everything into the crash and now many of those same people are probably chasing this parabola all the way to the top -- repeating the same self-destructive behavior once again... Great strategy... Roll Eyes

"Buy and hold" is one of the worst ways anyone could possibly try to manage their money... It might've been a good idea for your grandparents' generation investing in stocks to plan for retirement, but not in the internet age where information instantly spreads around the world and money can be moved electronically.

Might I ask what you guys are going to do if (or perhaps when) Bitcoin experiences its next crash?  Smiley

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March 27, 2013, 08:16:53 AM
 #156

....
Might I ask what you guys are going to do if (or perhaps when) Bitcoin experiences its next crash?  Smiley

Good question:
Right now when it goes (for example) from 74.9 / 52.3 / 73 pause..pause ..  everyone expects to break the previous high, just like so many times before.
Using the newer numbers, what if we do 85.33 / ~63 / 84.5 pause. , then it goes back down to ~62 will you sell there, or will a bounce to ~79 restore confidence? Now, if it goes below $59 (for example) after the initial recovery and no new high, are you getting nervous?

Back up to $67 Rally!
Oh no $49...$34.. $21.... $19 (for example)... Stop selling you should be buying now not panicking.

Question for anyone: Even if you never panic sell, how do you decide when to take profits?

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March 27, 2013, 04:39:49 PM
 #157

I'm *not* suggesting hitting the exact top bottom every time (small moves equal small fast profits, big moves equal bigger fast profits), but am saying the opportunities are amazing.

No shit, Sherlock. No one is debating that it's possible to make more money by short-term trading. The question is whether anyone can consistently outperform the market to a degree that exceeds the exponential factor of BTC price growth. You have made absolutely no argument.
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March 27, 2013, 04:46:29 PM
 #158

Bit_Happy makes a very good point, except I wouldn't even call "buy and hold" a real "strategy"... I heard a couple people mention holding their coins through the 2011 spike and crash, and still holding those same coins. That's not really something to be proud of, imho, and wasn't a wise financial decision. Imagine how much better those people would've done if they'd sold their coins for $30 (shit, even in the $20 or even $15) and then bought bitcoin again when it was near its lows. That would be a lot of money, especially if they had a good bit of coin to begin with.

Many people had thousands of coins they mined on their CPUs. And only a few of those people are actually "rich" from their bitcoin endeavors. Just imagine starting in the early days of bitcoin and mining 1,000 BTC on your CPU. Then you made the wise decision to sell near the 2011 peak (let's say $22.50) and walked away with $22,500 USD. Then you used that $22.5k to re-create your position for $5/BTC. You'd have been able to purchase 4,500 BTC, which today would have a net value of over $360,000. Not bad eh?

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Hindsight is 20/20.

But what did most people do? They kept on buying BTC as the price climbed towards the peak, then panicked and sold everything into the crash and now many of those same people are probably chasing this parabola all the way to the top -- repeating the same self-destructive behavior once again... Great strategy... Roll Eyes

Sorry to be Captain Obvious, but it's not "buy and hold" if you panic sell midway through Roll Eyes

And when do people take profits? When they need money or want to up their standard of living. Simple really.
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March 27, 2013, 05:07:23 PM
 #159

I can't believe there are still bears who are holding Bitcoin at this price.

If there are they must be actually be short-term bulls.

Since there is no way to easily short-sell Bitcoins.

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March 27, 2013, 05:17:45 PM
 #160

[...] and you lost money, or as you like to call it, you lost an opportunity.

LOLOLOL... Last time I checked I still had exactly the same amount of money as when I sold my coins. Taking a profit has never hurt anyone.

"Taking a profit" is a loose term, and you're using that looseness to hide your errors from yourself. A more precise phrasing is "moving your assets from Bitcoin to fiat."

With the more accurate terminology there is no vagueness to hide in; if Bitcoin outperforms fiat, you will be forced to look back and say, "I hurt myself by giving up a more valuable asset for a less valuable one. I do not have the same amount of buying power as when I sold my coins, even though I have the same amount of fiat money."
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