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Author Topic: BTC/USD: Ready for "The Running of the Bears"?  (Read 19422 times)
Gab1159
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March 27, 2013, 08:14:03 PM
 #161

well so far we have seen what we called a quadruple top... Smiley

You really should give it a rest... I'd hate to think that your reading comprehension skills are that poor... Roll Eyes

At no point did I ever point at any particular price and call it an exact top (that's virtually impossible to get right). Instead, I highlighted some potential areas of interest in the charts, explained what technical indicators can imply and offered potential scenarios for a price correction. And I disclosed the fact that I have sold and am currently on the sidelines watching this thing... You can disregard technicals if you like, but don't come crying to me when you buy into a massive head & shoulders and get taken to the woodshed (which might happen sooner than you think).

It's easy for everyone to think they're expert traders in roaring bull market, like so many did in the DotCom boom, but it will be interesting to see how many of you are left standing the first time we hit a bump in the road.  Wink

Regards,

--ATC--

And how many times were you explained why the Dotcom bubble and the bitcoin aren't comparable. Is it that you, too, have poor reading skills, or is it because you just won't accept the fact that your comparison is...well, inappropriate?

And no, this wouldn't be the first bump in the road....
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S3052
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March 27, 2013, 09:40:03 PM
 #162

I can't believe there are still bears who are holding Bitcoin at this price.

If there are they must be actually be short-term bulls.

Since there is no way to easily short-sell Bitcoins.

bitfinex.com is actually quite simple to use (I am not sure how secure the site is, but it works for short selling and long buying with margin)

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March 27, 2013, 09:43:19 PM
 #163

Might I ask what you guys are going to do if (or perhaps when) Bitcoin experiences its next crash?  Smiley

Well call me crazy, but I'm going to "hold", and who knows I may even go crazy and you know "buy". You see how that works?

It's a complex strategy, I know, I can see why you aren't getting it.

Its right up there with the other widely derided strategies such as dollar cost averaging. Another proven to be effective, but ignored by everyone because it doesn't show how much smarter they are than everyone else, strategy. Although of course you don't call it a strategy. Oh no, strategies have to be super clever...

Taking profits? I don't take profits. I hedge against catastrophic failure by converting small amounts of bitcoin to fiat at a set multiple. Formulaic, guaranteed income. A bit like dividends - theres another unfashionable ignored and hugely profitable aspect of investing. Oh I used the I(nvesting) word instead of the T(rading) word. Guess that reveals my dim wittedness.

Emotion will defeat you. Stick to the plan. Kiss.

One small point: You still never acknowledged the fact that one of your cornerstone points in your initial TA about there being no buyers after a sell off was a glaring and incompetent error, based on your ignorance of what actually happened.

hint: gox was shut after a hack.

anyone that simply held through it all, remained unaffected.

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March 27, 2013, 10:04:54 PM
 #164

+1



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T
....ANGEL TOKEN....


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Mjbmonetarymetals
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March 27, 2013, 10:18:56 PM
 #165

Not expecting a correction of some magnitude is to completely ignore the fact the Bitcoin has constantly gone from under valued to overvalued - as before once it becomes overvalued Bitcoin will take a haircut. Only those that got in late and sell low will be affected. Dreams of a $700 Bitcoin will put on the shelf for a few months until the next euphoric bull run.
Le Happy Merchant
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March 27, 2013, 10:20:08 PM
 #166

Might I ask what you guys are going to do if (or perhaps when) Bitcoin experiences its next crash?  Smiley

Well call me crazy, but I'm going to "hold", and who knows I may even go crazy and you know "buy". You see how that works?

It's a complex strategy, I know, I can see why you aren't getting it.

Its right up there with the other widely derided strategies such as dollar cost averaging. Another proven to be effective, but ignored by everyone because it doesn't show how much smarter they are than everyone else, strategy. Although of course you don't call it a strategy. Oh no, strategies have to be super clever...

Taking profits? I don't take profits. I hedge against catastrophic failure by converting small amounts of bitcoin to fiat at a set multiple. Formulaic, guaranteed income. A bit like dividends - theres another unfashionable ignored and hugely profitable aspect of investing. Oh I used the I(nvesting) word instead of the T(rading) word. Guess that reveals my dim wittedness.

Emotion will defeat you. Stick to the plan. Kiss.

One small point: You still never acknowledged the fact that one of your cornerstone points in your initial TA about there being no buyers after a sell off was a glaring and incompetent error, based on your ignorance of what actually happened.

hint: gox was shut after a hack.

anyone that simply held through it all, remained unaffected.

This guy. +1

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March 27, 2013, 10:23:21 PM
 #167

Not expecting a correction of some magnitude is to completely ignore the fact the Bitcoin has constantly gone from under valued to overvalued - as before once it becomes overvalued Bitcoin will take a haircut. Only those that got in late and sell low will be affected. Dreams of a $700 Bitcoin will put on the shelf for a few months until the next euphoric bull run.

But how can be know it is overvalued if the world still has no clue what a bitcoin is worth?  Price discovery is always a volatile process and only hindsight will determine what is over/under valued.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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sgbett
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March 27, 2013, 10:35:06 PM
 #168

Not expecting a correction of some magnitude is to completely ignore the fact the Bitcoin has constantly gone from under valued to overvalued - as before once it becomes overvalued Bitcoin will take a haircut. Only those that got in late and sell low will be affected. Dreams of a $700 Bitcoin will put on the shelf for a few months until the next euphoric bull run.

But how can be know it is overvalued if the world still has no clue what a bitcoin is worth?  Price discovery is always a volatile process and only hindsight will determine what is over/under valued.

Exactly right, volatility is to be expected. Be <a href ='http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com'>antifragile</a> with your strategy.

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March 28, 2013, 07:02:33 AM
 #169

Someone showed me this image earlier, which was not made for the sake of Bitcoin but to descibe bubbles in general:



When I saw it I LOL'd... you would think it was made to exactly describe today's "Bitcoin mania", but JP Rodrigue designed it in 2008 (before Bitcoin was even born) to describe the life-cycle of typical financial bubbles.  Cheesy

What was probably the most amusing is how he labeled the peak "New Paradigm"; ironically, people here are talking about the "new paradigm" and "reorganization of society" and other [excessively] premature characterizations of bitcoin.

Good luck, everyone!

 Grin Grin Grin

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March 28, 2013, 07:19:33 AM
 #170

Someone showed me this image earlier, which was not made for the sake of Bitcoin but to descibe bubbles in general:

When I saw it I LOL'd... you would think it was made to exactly describe today's "Bitcoin mania", but JP Rodrigue designed it in 2008 (before Bitcoin was even born) to describe the life-cycle of typical financial bubbles.  Cheesy

What was probably the most amusing is how he labeled the peak "New Paradigm"; ironically, people here are talking about the "new paradigm" and "reorganization of society" and other [excessively] premature characterizations of bitcoin.

Good luck, everyone!

 Grin Grin Grin

You can keep lolling, but the people on this forum were probably talking about the reorganisation of society when bitcoin was still <$1. 
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March 28, 2013, 07:47:56 AM
 #171

Someone showed me this image earlier, which was not made for the sake of Bitcoin but to descibe bubbles in general:

When I saw it I LOL'd... you would think it was made to exactly describe today's "Bitcoin mania", but JP Rodrigue designed it in 2008 (before Bitcoin was even born) to describe the life-cycle of typical financial bubbles.  Cheesy

What was probably the most amusing is how he labeled the peak "New Paradigm"; ironically, people here are talking about the "new paradigm" and "reorganization of society" and other [excessively] premature characterizations of bitcoin.

Good luck, everyone!

 Grin Grin Grin

You can keep lolling, but the people on this forum were probably talking about the reorganisation of society when bitcoin was still <$1. 

^ This. Go to the speculation forum and click on page 72. Look at the bear posts. Is anything new here?

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March 28, 2013, 07:51:28 AM
 #172

I just re-read the OP's post and rather than just say he's wrong outright let's use his own recommendations and timeline to ascertain conclusively whether he is right or wrong

To be fair to the OP, here's his conclusion

Quote
... but this time I'm going to go out on a limb and make you a clear-cut suggestion: sell. I'm selling. We've all made a lot of money, and no one has ever been hurt taking a profit. Profit is money you didn't have before, and now you have it. So take it off the table and enjoy it. You can stay in the shark pool if you want, but do so at your own peril. It looks like the correction is indeed very close -- no one has infinite money to keep pushing the price to infinity, so a correction is going to happen. If you're patient and smart, you might be able to buy back your bitcoins in the $30s or $40s in another 7-14 days.... or at least in the 50s

In summary, for him to be right (with an original post date at March 25th), bitcoin price needs to be below $60 no later than April 8th. If price enters $30-40 in the same timeframe, he gets top marks

He throws in a lot of mights, maybes, its possible, and even a caveat after the text I quoted above but theres no way to argue against the fact that he made a recommendation based on his TA and the quoted text is it

So let's see if he's right or wrong April 8th. In the meantime we can continue the debate.

BTW I'm long bitcoin but consider myself a neutral observer. He could be right. We'll know soon enough

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March 28, 2013, 11:46:18 AM
 #173

Someone showed me this image earlier, which was not made for the sake of Bitcoin but to descibe bubbles in general:



When I saw it I LOL'd... you would think it was made to exactly describe today's "Bitcoin mania", but JP Rodrigue designed it in 2008 (before Bitcoin was even born) to describe the life-cycle of typical financial bubbles.  Cheesy

What was probably the most amusing is how he labeled the peak "New Paradigm"; ironically, people here are talking about the "new paradigm" and "reorganization of society" and other [excessively] premature characterizations of bitcoin.

Good luck, everyone!

 Grin Grin Grin

I agree the chart applies, but you are nowhere near paradigm shift.

Do a spot survey of everyone you know IRL and come back with a percentage of people that know about bitcoin.

I could probably think of a few hundred people I know, and as far as I know *none* of them know about bitcoin, unless I told them. Any one of them, if they found out about BTC would almost definitely speak to me about it because they know I am the nerdy one.

Media Attention is just kicking in, I suspect insititutional investors might be taking it seriously. If anything the bubble to 32 was the first sell off.

Until you grasp the relative numbers involved 21million coins vs XX trillions of dollars (not billions) you are always going to come up short when you guess the end game exchange rate.


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March 28, 2013, 10:03:04 PM
 #174

Looks like ATC777 was right on the mark. I wonder if he will get any apologies from the people who said he was nuts
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March 28, 2013, 10:06:10 PM
 #175

Looks like ATC777 was right on the mark. I wonder if he will get any apologies from the people who said he was nuts
LOL, you're jumping the gun a little!!! hahah
He sold at 71...  how is that being right on the mark? he's off by a lot! this is just a correction and BTC changing hands...
It was at 95.70 this morning!!!! We'll see $90 again tomorrow!

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March 28, 2013, 10:06:50 PM
 #176

Looks like ATC777 was right on the mark. I wonder if he will get any apologies from the people who said he was nuts

Not at all.  It's a) a weekend and b) a long weekend.  Come Tuesday the price will no doubt rise again.
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March 28, 2013, 10:37:32 PM
 #177

Looks like ATC777 was right on the mark. I wonder if he will get any apologies from the people who said he was nuts

Not at all.  It's a) a weekend and b) a long weekend.  Come Tuesday the price will no doubt rise again.

87 already ... the fucker is going up faster than scuba diver's fart Cheesy a...tanku

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March 28, 2013, 10:50:13 PM
 #178

Looks like ATC777 was right on the mark. I wonder if he will get any apologies from the people who said he was nuts
LOL, you're jumping the gun a little!!! hahah
He sold at 71...  how is that being right on the mark? he's off by a lot! this is just a correction and BTC changing hands...
It was at 95.70 this morning!!!! We'll see $90 again tomorrow!


Frame my comment and hang it somewhere!

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March 28, 2013, 11:17:57 PM
 #179

Someone showed me this image earlier, which was not made for the sake of Bitcoin but to descibe bubbles in general:




If you look closely at the chart you will find that we are actually at the take off phase.
Why?
Because that is the section where the Institutional Investors come in,
and we have had exactly that recently with the first Bitcoin Hedge Fund and the relaunch of Tradehill.

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March 28, 2013, 11:42:56 PM
 #180

Heheh, the bull trap is now set it seems...  Cheesy

No guys, never called any particular number an exact top. Certainly not 75. 75 is where I decided it was time to start getting out and selling. In fact, I kept thinking in the back of my mind it just might reach 100... but idk about that now.

I said "I'm selling" and recommended others take their profits and enjoy them. But you never sell every bitcoin or every share of stock you own in one huge order -- you also don't buy in one huge order. You scale your way in and out, because no one can time these things perfectly. But I am finished selling now (perhaps was a bit premature), and looks like we got out just in time.  Smiley

Be careful here... always expect a "dead cat bounce" when these things start to fall apart, or a "bull trap" as some like to call them... Will be very interesting to see what happens next!  Grin

Good luck!

--ATC--


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