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Author Topic: BTC/USD: Ready for "The Running of the Bears"?  (Read 19431 times)
bitcoinBull
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March 25, 2013, 05:59:08 AM
 #61

I started selling yesterday and finished today. But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity. And the fear of missing an opportunity has driven men beyond counting to ruin.  Wink

Good advice. But, buying again at $40 was a good trade only in retrospect. And was that not fear of missing an opportunity?

TA is uncertain and we will see false breakouts. Selling to "buy again" on a false breakout and not only did you miss an opportunity, you also lose money. That's why selling to buy dips, in an uptrend, is a losing strategy. You are very lucky to beat the market and if you keep playing, your gains will almost certainly (eventually) be less than the market.

I should know. I have only about 1/3 of the coins I had at $2.00, and I don't ever expect to recover them trading. This market is too bullish even for me. I could kick myself for trying to sell tops and buy dips ever since $2, even more than for not selling at $30 in '11 (doubled my coins rest of the way down). If one is going to trade, there will be good trades and bad ones. You don't get to look back and say "if only I had made only the good ones and none of the bad." You take the good with the bad.

So, I'm not saying that you should never take gains. But I am saying that if (like me) you can't help yourself from trading , an "all out/all in" strategy is extremely risky (due to false breakouts). If you want to pick tops, my advice (for whatever its worth) is to be patient and scale out in small portions through target ranges. Adjust your holding percentage to your degree of certainty.

There is much volatility ahead, and the less panic trading, the better (both individually and collectively).

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deathcode
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March 25, 2013, 06:00:33 AM
 #62

I'm not trying to get in the middle here but it sounds like he was layed up in the hospital or something-he got in a car accident. Kind of hard to bitinstant then head to 7/11 to use Moneygram.

How's that related to moving money? All you need is a computer and electricity, it's not like I have to go to a super market to get money or anything... The bank I used doesn't even have a branch in my state for crying out loud... I deposit the few checks I get using the iPhone app...
And if he's in school, I'm sure he has health insurance, and if he's not in school, and he doesn't work but he has made hundreds of thousands (not sure if we are talking about dollars here or Mardy Grass beads) then he has money to pay for his own health insurance, so having an accident, sure, pity, yet, that shouldn't be a factor here.
My contention here is that he wants an entry point lower than the current price.. But that's speculative, how whole analysis borders both ends.... He sold, but he's a bull long term... Ok I get it, he's a day trader, nothing wrong with that, yet, in his very elaborated analysis he forgot to mention what the intended audience was, I thought they teach that in college... Anyways, I'm not trying to be a troll, but those kinds of analysis just made me laugh when they fall apart, and then you still see these guys around with no shame trying to yet again, guess the future value of something and putting excuses for being totally wrong. It's ok, that a very common tale... We see that every day in the speculation board.

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March 25, 2013, 06:02:25 AM
 #63

I'm not trying to get in the middle here but it sounds like he was layed up in the hospital or something-he got in a car accident. Kind of hard to bitinstant then head to 7/11 to use Moneygram.

Correct, thank you. I didn't stay in the hospital (refused to). But it was no easier. I could've gotten a rental car or a "loaner" from the Mercedes-Benz dealership but I've been on too much pain meds to drive myself anywhere. And have more surgeries and appointments yet to come... sucks... Tongue

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deathcode
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March 25, 2013, 06:03:20 AM
 #64

I started selling yesterday and finished today. But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity. And the fear of missing an opportunity has driven men beyond counting to ruin.  Wink

Good advice. But, buying again at $40 was a good trade only in retrospect. And was that not fear of missing an opportunity?

TA is uncertain and we will see false breakouts. Selling to "buy again" on a false breakout and not only did you miss an opportunity, you also lose money. That's why selling to buy dips, in an uptrend, is a losing strategy. You are very lucky to beat the market and if you keep playing, your gains will almost certainly (eventually) be less than the market.

I should know. I have only about 1/3 of the coins I had at $2.00, and I don't ever expect to recover them trading. This market is too bullish even for me. I could kick myself for trying to sell tops and buy dips ever since $2, even more than for not selling at $30 in '11 (doubled my coins rest of the way down). If one is going to trade, there will be good trades and bad ones. You don't get to look back and say "if only I had made only the good ones and none of the bad." You take the good with the bad.

So, I'm not saying that you should never take gains. But I am saying that if (like me) you can't help yourself from trading , an "all out/all in" strategy is extremely risky (due to false breakouts). If you want to pick tops, my advice (for whatever its worth) is to be patient and scale out in small portions through target ranges. Adjust your holding percentage to your degree of certainty.

There is much volatility ahead, and the less panic trading, the better (both individually and collectively).

I agree if anything I'd keep fiat ready for dips, but I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins.

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March 25, 2013, 06:16:08 AM
 #65

I agree if anything I'd keep fiat ready for dips, but I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins.

Well, that's great. I hope that works out for you. You'll notice that I'm not angry about your decision to keep your coins or your bullish opinions... Yet you had to personally attack me and spend all that time to get to "I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins". Should've just said that in the first place and this thread would be much shorter...

P.S. -- Are you a college student?

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March 25, 2013, 06:23:10 AM
 #66

You are talking about fundamentals but you intantionally didn't mention some very important one. For example, besides the drugs/money landering, we have strong gambling industry evolving and other merchants are accepting bitcoins. Also among the new users we have big whales with strong hands, those are not little guys with couple of thpusand of dollars like most other users, even hedge funds are being created as we speak. Also if you look at the google trends indicator or number of wikipedia views for bitcoin, it is skyrocketing.
I believe this rally will end up badly when the money inflow stops but we are far from it now. It is questionable if we go above 100 ( that's a very strong psychological barrier), but I don't really expect any big crash at this time. The momentum is too strong.

Disclaimer: I've sold almost all of my coins last week  Grin I have less than 500 BTC now, part of it in SDICE shares. I wasn't confortable holding so much at these high prices, so I took the profit. But I still think the rally is far from over . And early adopters don't have enough BTC to crash the market anymore.
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March 25, 2013, 06:23:48 AM
 #67

I agree if anything I'd keep fiat ready for dips, but I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins.

Well, that's great. I hope that works out for you. You'll notice that I'm not angry about your decision to keep your coins or your bullish opinions... Yet you had to personally attack me and spend all that time to get to "I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins". Should've just said that in the first place and this thread would be much shorter...

P.S. -- Are you a college student?

Your analysis seems designed to encourage a sell off which obviously I understand the goal of it now.
Also, you are a college student or you were, and your analysis lacks an intended audience, lacks a clear conclusion and it shows duality of opinions and ambiguity or in other words you contradict yourself, like other user said, it lacks substance. Again you're free to write anything you want, but don't get mad if others disagree with you and clearly many do, even the market does.

And no I'm not a college student but I was many years ago...

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March 25, 2013, 06:34:51 AM
 #68

Your analysis seems designed to encourage a sell off which obviously I understand the goal of it now.

Absolutely not.

Also, you are a college student or you were, and your analysis lacks an intended audience, lacks a clear conclusion and it shows duality of opinions and ambiguity or in other words you contradict yourself, like other user said, it lacks substance.

I'm not a college student. That was many years ago. The intended audience was short-term traders, which is glaringly obvious from the very beginning. There is no duality of opinions. I believe a sell-off is coming, and coming soon. That is the conclusion. And I wanted to warn readers that if the price breaks the double-top formation and makes one last crazy move to the upside that they should be very cautious, because that is generally what happens at the end of a parabolic rally. So there was absolutely no contradiction; it was a net bearish post, and I stand by that opinion for better or for worse. No one is right 100% of the time and if I'm wrong it's a drop in the bucket because my money is safe.  Smiley

Again you're free to write anything you want, but don't get mad if others disagree with you and clearly many do, even the market does.

I was never angry at any point... the only thing I've taken issue with is your use of personal attacks. I'm still not angry, and won't hold any grudges. There are much better things to get angry about, like people who don't know how to drive!  Tongue

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March 25, 2013, 06:37:05 AM
 #69

Though I do not agree with your analysis, your TA was infinitely better than Lucif's who seemingly just slaps a bear chart and adds some jargon that laymen such as I cannot understand.

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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March 25, 2013, 06:41:45 AM
 #70

I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.

To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.
To newcomers: Me and ATC have been in bitcoin a lot longer than BitPriate

And I've been around a lot longer than the both of you.  I was there in the crash, watched it go down to $2 live on goxlive, and knew one of the people who sold below $2 in November '11 ($1.994 was hit momentarily).  The temptation to sell was strong.  I held all the way through and now I'm very glad for it.  This is not June '11, not by a long shot.  We have fundamentals this time.

Never forget the fall of 2011   Cry

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March 25, 2013, 06:48:49 AM
 #71

Your analysis seems designed to encourage a sell off which obviously I understand the goal of it now.

Absolutely not.

Also, you are a college student or you were, and your analysis lacks an intended audience, lacks a clear conclusion and it shows duality of opinions and ambiguity or in other words you contradict yourself, like other user said, it lacks substance.

I'm not a college student. That was many years ago. The intended audience was short-term traders, which is glaringly obvious from the very beginning. There is no duality of opinions. I believe a sell-off is coming, and coming soon. That is the conclusion. And I wanted to warn readers that if the price breaks the double-top formation and makes one last crazy move to the upside that they should be very cautious, because that is generally what happens at the end of a parabolic rally. So there was absolutely no contradiction; it was a net bearish post, and I stand by that opinion for better or for worse. No one is right 100% of the time and if I'm wrong it's a drop in the bucket because my money is safe.  Smiley

Again you're free to write anything you want, but don't get mad if others disagree with you and clearly many do, even the market does.

I was never angry at any point... the only thing I've taken issue with is your use of personal attacks. I'm still not angry, and won't hold any grudges. There are much better things to get angry about, like people who don't know how to drive!  Tongue
Well I'm glad it's settled, although I will keep my bullish approach and I respectfully disagree with your TA due to fundamentals that are stronger in my opinion than yours. Every rally needs a correction, and what I see in bitcoin that I don't see in stocks, gold, forex, silver, etc is that we are witnessing the very beginning of a world currency that has unique features and that people will eventually (when the digital divide and/or learning curve reaches the masses) adopt.
I pointed out your age, because you were 4 when mp3 started playing on 386DX computers and I witnessed what they did to the music industry, you were 10 when the edonkey network and gnutella changed the way people share files, a predecessor of the torrents, therefore, you have missed a lot of critical events that allow older people to recognize, maybe, a world changing platform/tool/currency. Time will prove or disprove my words.
Wsh you the best and hope you heal fully.

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March 25, 2013, 06:53:36 AM
 #72

I believe the price will reach stability after breaking $75, meeting resistence at $90, and settling at $86.40.

See what I mean?, people coming up not with a round number, but specifically $86.40 I can't but just laugh at this kinds of posts.
Question for you sir, can I borrow that crystal ball of yours so I can play the lotto? I'm sure if you can predict with such exactitude the price for BTC, then it shouldn't be any problem to get six integers for the powerball Smiley

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March 25, 2013, 07:09:41 AM
 #73

Hey guys,

As I promised some time ago I am back to do more in-depth technical analysis of the BTC/USD rate. I'd hoped to do this again much sooner, but unforeseen circumstances (e.g., nasty car accident, numerous doctors appointments) forced me to put it on hold. But it's time for my next analysis, which probably couldn't come at a more interesting time!  Cheesy

To begin, I'd let's go over a few things before we dig into the charts. Many of remember that not so long ago you could buy a bitcoin for $12 and some change. And how about today (3/24/13)? Try a whopping $71.50! ... say what?! Shocked

As with all things, we have to ask ourselves what fundamental changes have occurred in the market to drive prices to these unparalleled all-time highs. This "super-rally" took place in two distinct legs. The first leg-up of this massive super-rally took us from the $10-$12 level to the high 40s and low 50s. As I was at the time, I'm still skeptical that there was any strong fundamental factors behind that massive climb. What changed? Did we gain some new users? Yes, we did. But we did not quadruple (or even double) our user-base, so it cannot be explained by an influx of new users. So what was it? Dominos pizza? Several people told me that... but Dominos did NOT start accepting bitcoin (it's merely a third party service that orders a pizza for you if you pay them BTC). While that's definitely cool, and a small victory for Bitcoin, it's not the fundamental factor we're looking for. The most plausible explanation is that European financial woes and fear about the integrity of the banking system caused a lot more interest in bitcoin (which is true). However, it certainly wasn't enough to support a $50+ rate for our budding crypto-currency. The "math" simply doesn't work out... So it leaves us with one thing: speculation.

It seems that excitement and the general happy-go-lucky attitude of the bitcoin community is the missing "fundamental" factor we're looking for, and our big swing in price is the result of a massive influx of speculative money. These things are self-feeding... the price moves up a nice bit, you hear some good stuff in the news, you might even have gotten one of those Dominos pizzas (lol), and then you and your buddies putting your whole $350 in savings into bitcoin to join the speculative wave. That moves the price up a bit more, and people chase it -- adding more and more money into it. To an experienced day trader or a Wall Street shark, the average Bitcoin user is what we call "financially unsophisticated"... most of the market is made up of Silk Road-using teenagers, amateur speculators and amateur traders, computer geek college students and the likes... people who've never traded a share of stock, don't know what a "calender spread" or an "Iron Condor" is and have no clue how the futures market works (or in most cases what it even is). When such people see the price of something going up, they leap to the assumption that it will keep going up... perhaps forever? That's what happened in the DotCom bubble, as amateur day traders and novice speculators poured tons of money into budding tech stocks (only to be utterly destroyed). About a week ago, I asked a bitcoin trader what fundamental factors he thought was driving the market higher. His response: "Well... Bitcoin has been mentioned in the news a whole bunch lately!" And it seems he's not alone in his failure to distinguish a news headline from fundamentals...  Undecided

We have seen patterns such as this before... we saw it in the aforementioned "DotBomb"... we saw it before the real estate / MBS meltdown of 2008... and of course, we cannot forget the tulip mania of 17th century Holland. Anyone even moderately experienced with financial markets understands the concept of bubbles. And when I look at this I cannot help but notice the striking similarities between past bubbles and the precariously high price of Bitcoin. But it did not stop at $50. The crisis in Cyprus, news headlines and a myriad of rather trivial factors triggered yet another influx of speculative money driving the price yet another 50% higher. Not even the recent fork in the blockchain (which highlighted how delicate this thing can be) was enough to dissuade the crowd from dumping their savings into the mix. And when the pigs beg to be slaughtered, savvy traders are smart enough to capitalize upon the ignorance of the masses -- thus their money is added to the equation and drive prices even higher... Bubbles operate largely upon the "snowball effect" as greed rolls it up the hillside. In my last analysis I was hoping for a correction that would settle things down and give us time to catch our breath. But I still felt uncertain. I left myself room for the market blasting off like a rocket, and I'm glad I did. But this time I'm thrice as skeptical and have officially begun preparing for a big move to the downside. So let's have a look at those charts...



I've numbered my scribblings on the chart to provide some commentary...

1) Double-top Pattern (drawn in blue)

These things are always scary... Sometimes they fake us out, but a double-top is generally a very strong bearish indicator. A double-top tends to occur at the end of a large rally. The market becomes over-bought, and finally tips over as people begin selling. But just as the selling gets heated people decide to jump back in, hoping that the rally will continue. When it doesn't, and fails to break through the former resistance level, everyone begins jumping ship and it plummets. In my day trading experience I've found these things to be good indicators. The double-top pattern was what gave me the signal to sell all my gold and silver futures, mining stocks and physical bullion just under $50/oz for silver. And it has served me well on countless stocks and a myriad of smaller intra-day and swing trades.

2) Current resistance

The red line indicates the current resistance level. Lo and behold, we raced back towards that level and failed to punch through. For this rally to continue we will need to see a very strong break-out above the resistance level with heavy volume. And we're not seeing it. In fact, it looks like the rate is falling as I type.

3) Old support level

The green line is the old support level after the first leg-up of the rally. When major sell-offs occur you can usually expect some support to bunch up around the former support level, and I expect that if we see the market topple and plunge back toward the 50s. This line indicates nothing in and of itself, but I'm pointing it out so you will pay attention to it if/when the sell-off gets hot and heavy.

4) MACD

MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) is one of my favorite indicators. Right now, good ol' MACD is telling us that momentum is stalling. We failed (so far) to set a new high both in price and MACD. And I've highlighted the MACD resistance level with the red line. We've been over-extended and over-bought for quite some time, and in my own experience I've found that MACD wins the tug-of-war 9 times out of 10 (hence the reason I'm willing to risk my money on it). The shrinking of the green histogram also indicates stalling momentum, and our short-term MA is beginning to slope downward -- thus making the signal more bearish. I am currently watching for a cross in the MAs, and for both to fall below the signal line (zero).

5) Stochastics

Our stochastics are also pointing towards the over-bought condition. It's all been BUY BUY BUY for weeks on end, and this tells the tale of the weakening money-flow. If you take a look at how the stochastics correspond to previous rallies and sell-offs, you can see just how useful this indicator can be. And right now it's screaming "DONT BUY! DONT BUY! DONT BUY!".

------------------------------------------------------
CONCLUSION ::
------------------------------------------------------

Last time I was uncertain about what was to come... but this time I'm going to go out on a limb and make you a clear-cut suggestion: sell. I'm selling. We've all made a lot of money, and no one has ever been hurt taking a profit. Profit is money you didn't have before, and now you have it. So take it off the table and enjoy it. You can stay in the shark pool if you want, but do so at your own peril. It looks like the correction is indeed very close -- no one has infinite money to keep pushing the price to infinity, so a correction is going to happen. If you're patient and smart, you might be able to buy back your bitcoins in the $30s or $40s in another 7-14 days.... or at least in the 50s. So I think the smartest move you can make is to de-risk and go have some fun with your not-so-hard-earned money. :-)

However, there's another scenario which might take place. It might be that there's still enough money on the sidelines to drive this higher. If that is indeed the case, we're probably going to see the alternative crash scenario play out. The final "oomph!" before the blowout. Much like silver's huge over-night jump before the 2011 correction, we might see bitcoin tack on another +$25 and reach for the $100 mark (a key psychological level). If it plays out this way, the following crash will be much worse and longer-lasting than if it just goes ahead and corrects here. The reason is because a LOT more people will get burned a LOT worse and lose a LOT more money. So it will scare off a lot of newbies and people will be scared to re-enter the market for some time. So I hope it doesn't pan out this way.

In any case, I raise my cup to a bitcoin correction. I'm optimistic about the long-term future of bitcoin, but we're way over-extended (and way over-due) for a considerable correction. We need one to settle things down and give our great crypto-currency a chance to truly grow. So have fun, and good luck no matter what the outcome!

Regards,

--ATC--

NOTE ::

If you enjoyed my analysis, learned from it and/or want to see more please support my efforts by sending a small tip to:

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I give my sincerest thanks to those who have sent me (quite generous) tips for some of my past articles and analysis!  Smiley

even your red trendline was constructed wrongly. it was already broken when you drew it.



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March 25, 2013, 07:37:15 AM
 #74

even your red trendline was constructed wrongly. it was already broken when you drew it.

I did draw it crooked, but I just scribbled on the chart in a hurry to highlight the things I was talking about. Wasn't going for "perfection". Trend lines are purely conceptual and do not actually exist in the real world, so there's no right or wrong way to draw one. You simply draw them to help yourself understand a chart or demonstrate something to others.

There are lots of different opinions on how to trade, how to do TA, how to do FA, how to scale positions, how to manage risk, how to allocate assets, etc... Two money-managers with opposing views can often be successful in the same market (seen it many times). Someone like deathcode might be successful this year by merely holding his coins and adding to his position, whilst I might simultaneously be successful buying the dips and selling the rips.

EDIT ::

As a general rule of thumb, however, you only want to add to your positions during substantial dips, to keep your average unit cost low...

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March 25, 2013, 07:53:39 AM
 #75

You are talking about fundamentals but you intantionally didn't mention some very important one. For example, besides the drugs/money landering, we have strong gambling industry evolving and other merchants are accepting bitcoins. Also among the new users we have big whales with strong hands, those are not little guys with couple of thpusand of dollars like most other users, even hedge funds are being created as we speak. Also if you look at the google trends indicator or number of wikipedia views for bitcoin, it is skyrocketing.
I believe this rally will end up badly when the money inflow stops but we are far from it now. It is questionable if we go above 100 ( that's a very strong psychological barrier), but I don't really expect any big crash at this time. The momentum is too strong.

Disclaimer: I've sold almost all of my coins last week  Grin I have less than 500 BTC now, part of it in SDICE shares. I wasn't confortable holding so much at these high prices, so I took the profit. But I still think the rally is far from over . And early adopters don't have enough BTC to crash the market anymore.
I heard (emphasis on heard) that Bitcoin Gambling and Silk Road made up something like 80% of bitcoin transactions.
And you are right...*knock on wood* there is probably just more to come.
And as there continues to be no legislation regarding Bitcoins (might be wrong) its only a matter of time until organized crime gets into it to buy, sell, and launder. My only question is how have they not already?
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March 25, 2013, 08:33:05 AM
 #76

You are talking about fundamentals but you intantionally didn't mention some very important one. For example, besides the drugs/money landering, we have strong gambling industry evolving and other merchants are accepting bitcoins. Also among the new users we have big whales with strong hands, those are not little guys with couple of thpusand of dollars like most other users, even hedge funds are being created as we speak. Also if you look at the google trends indicator or number of wikipedia views for bitcoin, it is skyrocketing.
I believe this rally will end up badly when the money inflow stops but we are far from it now. It is questionable if we go above 100 ( that's a very strong psychological barrier), but I don't really expect any big crash at this time. The momentum is too strong.

Disclaimer: I've sold almost all of my coins last week  Grin I have less than 500 BTC now, part of it in SDICE shares. I wasn't confortable holding so much at these high prices, so I took the profit. But I still think the rally is far from over . And early adopters don't have enough BTC to crash the market anymore.
I heard (emphasis on heard) that Bitcoin Gambling and Silk Road made up something like 80% of bitcoin transactions.
And you are right...*knock on wood* there is probably just more to come.
And as there continues to be no legislation regarding Bitcoins (might be wrong) its only a matter of time until organized crime gets into it to buy, sell, and launder. My only question is how have they not already?

Money laundering was there since the beginning. There are transactions people do off exchanges. The higher the price (bitcoin market cap) and user base the more money can be laundered effectively.
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March 25, 2013, 08:45:26 AM
 #77

All I'll say is, this isn't a stock we're talking about, nor is it a traditional market.   Bitcoin is its own beast and typical trading rules, market analysis and TA (which I often have issues with at the best of times) simply do not apply. 

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March 25, 2013, 09:03:05 AM
 #78

All I'll say is, this isn't a stock we're talking about, nor is it a traditional market.   Bitcoin is its own beast and typical trading rules, market analysis and TA (which I often have issues with at the best of times) simply do not apply. 

You're not the first person to say this, and not the first person to be completely wrong about it. TA is about market psychology, and it works on anything that humans buy and sell; even tulips.  Wink

It bewilders me how people can think bitcoin has some property of "magical exemption"...  Cheesy

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March 25, 2013, 09:04:26 AM
 #79

Well, I completely disagree Smiley   That is what it is, carry on.
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March 25, 2013, 09:07:00 AM
 #80

Well, I completely disagree Smiley   That is what it is, carry on.

We can agree to disagree. But here's some food for thought: What moves the price of bitcoin? Does bitcoin move bitcoin, or do the humans (and the bots -- who use TA) buying and selling it move it?  Smiley

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