BTC/USD: Ready for "The Running of the Bears"?

[deathcode]

LOL!

1. See a double top at 20ish
2. Sell your bitcoin
3. Buy back at 40ish
4. 
5. Profit

Erm, no... You either did not actually read or failed to understand. Last time I was watching/hoping for a correction, and I bought BTC. Finger was on the trigger, but never pulled it because it set a new high and kept going. So I held my coins. Just like Keynes said "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

I started selling yesterday and finished today. But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity. And the fear of missing an opportunity has driven men beyond counting to ruin.  

"But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity"

You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig... If you sold at $20 and you bought again at $40 then you lost money. You can call it an "opportunity" all you want. I call it losing money. I'm sure you sold low and bought high at some point or many times and I'm sure it fell like you lost money, not "opportunity"

[1526945251]

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[1526945251]

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[smoothie]

I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.

To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.

To newcomers: Me and ATC have been in bitcoin a lot longer than BitPriate

Hey noob,

Being on the forum for 3 months doesn't get you out of the "newcomers" sandbox.

Go play with the kiddie toys and let the adults who have been around here for much much longer than you discuss the important things.

FYI: I've been around the forums since June 2011. 

[ATC777]

Ok, you asked for it, let me rip your analysis apart:

Unfortunately, the text that followed totally failed to deliver that... 

BTW: Please learn to use the quote feature....

Don't sell, sell and you'll regret it in 2-3 years, this kid thinks that because he knows a few technical concepts he can analyze and predict that bitcoing will go down, yet he states above: "I'm bullish on BTC/USD long-term".

Another $200 amateur trader exhibiting a total lack of market-sense and calling me "kid"... how amusing... 

Stop acting like a condescending douche bag and trying to insult me, and show respect to other people when you speak to them (and they might take you seriously). Did you not learn that as a child? If not, there's your basic life lesson for the day. If you want to have a civilized discussion about this I will be most happy to continue. But I'm tempted to use my Ignore button if not... Sorry if I give offense, but just being blunt... Ad hominem gets old fast...

What's the reasoning behind a sell? Make up your mind, if you're bullish on the long term, why risking selling your coins? To be able to rebuy at cheaper prices? Maybe buying 10% more on a dip?  Is that worth the risk knowing bitcoin will most likely to up over time?

Are you unable to understand that different traders have different objectives, risk profiles, time horizons, etc? If your coins are intended as a long-term investment over the next 5-10 years then of course YOU should not sell, because you're not a trader (you're an investor). Traders, on the other hand, care about what's going to happen here and now and in the near future.

"no one has infinite money to keep pushing the price to infinity"
Inciting money? Do you realize that bitcoin market is less then 1 billion? We are talking about a world currency! One billion is a drop in the ocean! The adoption potential is so high that it is beyond anything you can possibly understand. A 5th grader can probably understand that better than you and your analysis can.

This really made me LOL... 

And if you're wrong, then you will be able to get back in with 10-20% less bitcoins that you will never have again or you will have a hard time to recover... In a market that lacks offers and is full of bids.

Again. If you sold today, you've completely eliminated your risk to zero. If you don't buy a stock today and it goes up $10 tomorrow, did you lose any money? No. You're the one asking people to take risks and continue buying regardless of price -- I am not.

So what kind of conclusion is this? A "I cover my ass just in case im wrong conclusion?"

No, those are the two ways sell-offs tend to precipitate after a parabolic move.

Why is $100 a key psychological level? 32 wasn't a big deal psychologically speaking, $50 wasn't either, where is the psycho-logical explanation for the $100 level? Is it because it has two zeros? Not sure i understand please explain further.

If I offered to give you $100 today or $105 two months from now, which one would you choose?

Why the crash will be much worse? Because its more money? You need to think percentages, 2% of 100 is way more than 2% of 30, and the more adoption in the coin will without a doubt impact how bitcoin fluctuates bitcoin is way too young and way too exposed to pump and dumps, once we surpass a few billion dollars in market cap, then the coin will be much harder to move, at least at the same levels of fluctuations that we have nowadays.

I'm unable to discern anything from this other than opinionated ramblings of a perma-bull...

Why on earth would you recommend selling if you are optimistic about the future of bitcoin? Why would anyone risk and I state this again selling a few bitcoins if the long term is optimistic? What's your correction price? 40-50? That correction happened and it went up again. The coin can fluctuate as much, you won't see 20's again that's for sure, yo u most likely see $100 before seeing 20's again, so you're selling? I'm buying, I'm buying at 60, at 70, and at 80...
In 2015 ill be the guy that didn't buy that pizza for 0.5BTC and who knows, maybe 0.5 might be worth $700,000

Sigh...

So please, do sell!

Done. Enjoy. 

[ATC777]

A pattern like this has happened many times in the last few months allowing me to buy back in at 64 57 and even 36.8.

Yup... I think many of these are the fools who dumped all their coin during the "Night of the Long Forks" who we made thousands of $ off of by selling them back their own coin when the error was rectified. 

[Vladimir]

Relax guys. The point is not about silly TA. Bitcoin now is all about exponential growth which will continue until the pool of potential participants is exhausted.

ATC, Analyse this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ .

[smoothie]

Relax guys. The point is not about silly TA. Bitcoin now is all about exponential growth which will continue until the pool of potential participants is exhausted.

ATC, Analyse this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ .

SO Vladimir, at what point are we at in the video right now in terms of bitcoin? lol

[myself]

P.S. -- If you have Netflix you should all watch the documentary called "Mind Over Money"...

not bad http://youtu.be/fYXD-_AMstQ

[Vladimir]

lol, I'd say considering that we have like 7 billion people on this rock.... nahh bad idea..

It is the second guy running over the lawn to join up, while being dragged down by mtgox and his 5500 verification backlog.

[ATC777]

Relax guys. The point is not about silly TA. Bitcoin now is all about exponential growth which will continue until the pool of potential participants is exhausted.

ATC, Analyse this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ .

Perhaps you could learn something from that video... Do you think those people are still all dancing together in that group since they started in 2010? Or did they finally get tired, quit and go home (perhaps to dance again another day)?  

And I'm not sure using a video of a guy doing something stupid and other people following him into doing the same stupid thing was a good way to make your argument!  heheh

[johnniewalker]

Did anyone else notice the graph in the OP went back about a week and a half ago?
I found this graph somewhere else in the Speculations thread (not taking credit for it)

Is it just me, or do you see several "Double Top" Patterns in this longer-term analysis of the market? I'm not trying to be a smart ass or stir up any controversy or anything, but I would like to know what OP has to say about this.

[ATC777]

@ Johnniewalker ::

Boy does that look familiar... parabola? Check... Double-top? Check... Sell-off? 

[deathcode]

"Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options"

Yet, you were asking for a 3-5 BTC loan... Sure, your TA has suddenly become way more clear...
I guess I'd recommend a financial planner since all those hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone...


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154814.msg1641108#msg1641108

Anyways, let me save you the trouble of hitting the ignore button... Although you are indeed a funny guy.

[johnniewalker]

@ Johnniewalker ::

Boy does that look familiar... parabola? Check... Double-top? Check... Sell-off?  

What if in a panic I had sold in June of '09? Does your model and your encouragement to sell consider those who are in this for the "long haul"? Again, just trying to learn here.
**between Jan and June of '09

[ATC777]

"Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options"

Yet, you were asking for a 3-5 BTC loan... Sure, your TA has suddenly become way more clear...
I guess I'd recommend a financial planner since all those hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone...


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154814.msg1641108#msg1641108

Anyways, let me save you the trouble of hitting the ignore button... Although you are indeed a funny guy.

I borrowed some coin because I had no way to buy any more and wanted to do something with them. I was just in a car accident, so all the formerly open venues of purchasing bitcoin whenever I want are currently closed. And btw, I succeeded in what I wanted to do (multiplied the 6.00 BTC I borrowed several times, bought some new mining equipment and sold the rest).  

@ johnniewalker:

If you're in it for the long-haul, as in several years, then just ignore all of this short-term volatility. You're playing a totally different ball-game.

[johnniewalker]

"Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options"

Yet, you were asking for a 3-5 BTC loan... Sure, your TA has suddenly become way more clear...
I guess I'd recommend a financial planner since all those hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone...


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154814.msg1641108#msg1641108

Anyways, let me save you the trouble of hitting the ignore button... Although you are indeed a funny guy.

I borrowed some coin because I had no way to buy any more and wanted to do something with them. I was just in a car accident, so all the formerly open venues of purchasing bitcoin whenever I want are currently closed. And btw, I succeeded in what I wanted to do (multiplied the 6.00 BTC I borrowed several times, bought some new mining equipment and sold the rest).  

@ johnniewalker:

If you're in it for the long-haul, as in several years, then just ignore all of this short-term volatility. You're playing a totally different ball-game.

I was going to say, in defense of OP you mentioned being in a car accident at the beginning of this post, I didn't see anything contradictory in that post. From time to time I check the speculation thread, just for kicks. The truth of the matter is, as Bitcoin is deflationary, the only thing I (someone in for long haul) has to worry about is some government action against Bitcoin, public interest dissipating (seems unlikely at this point), or god forbid some other, unforseen big event.

[Gab1159]

"Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options"

Yet, you were asking for a 3-5 BTC loan... Sure, your TA has suddenly become way more clear...
I guess I'd recommend a financial planner since all those hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone...


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154814.msg1641108#msg1641108

Anyways, let me save you the trouble of hitting the ignore button... Although you are indeed a funny guy.

I borrowed some coin because I had no way to buy any more and wanted to do something with them. I was just in a car accident, so all the formerly open venues of purchasing bitcoin whenever I want are currently closed. And btw, I succeeded in what I wanted to do (multiplied the 6.00 BTC I borrowed several times, bought some new mining equipment and sold the rest).  

@ johnniewalker:

If you're in it for the long-haul, as in several years, then just ignore all of this short-term volatility. You're playing a totally different ball-game.

Yeah sure...

I never agreed on your analysis but still was giving you credibility. Now the further this thread goes, the smaller your credibility gets. 3-5 btc should be very easy to obtain for any trader. Seriously...If you make "hundreds of thousands of dollars, and can't buy your own bitcoins...

[deathcode]

"Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options"

Yet, you were asking for a 3-5 BTC loan... Sure, your TA has suddenly become way more clear...
I guess I'd recommend a financial planner since all those hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone...


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154814.msg1641108#msg1641108

Anyways, let me save you the trouble of hitting the ignore button... Although you are indeed a funny guy.

I borrowed some coin because I had no way to buy any more and wanted to do something with them. I was just in a car accident, so all the formerly open venues of purchasing bitcoin whenever I want are currently closed. And btw, I succeeded in what I wanted to do (multiplied the 6.00 BTC I borrowed several times, bought some new mining equipment and sold the rest).  

@ johnniewalker:

If you're in it for the long-haul, as in several years, then just ignore all of this short-term volatility. You're playing a totally different ball-game.

I was going to say, in defense of OP you mentioned being in a car accident at the beginning of this post, I didn't see anything contradictory in that post. From time to time I check the speculation thread, just for kicks. The truth of the matter is, as Bitcoin is deflationary, the only thing I (someone in for long haul) has to worry about is some government action against Bitcoin, public interest dissipating (seems unlikely at this point), or god forbid some other, unforseen big event.

Hey johnniewalker, I made hundreds of thousands of dollars but I need a 5 BTC loan... Thanks ill send you my address in pvt MSG.

[ATC777]

Yeah sure...

I never agreed on your analysis but still was giving you credibility. Now the further this thread goes, the smaller your credibility gets. 3-5 btc should be very easy to obtain for any trader. Seriously...If you make "hundreds of thousands of dollars, and can't buy your own bitcoins...

Yeah sure what? I got pretty seriously injured. I couldn't even get out of bed. I'm just now able to walk short distances, and my car is totaled. I just wanted a few coins for my bot which I just finished coding, and it really WASN'T worth all the pain and trouble of going to town to buy a MoneyPak or deposit money in another trader's account (I generally trade on OTC).

So no, it's most certainly NOT very easy to obtain bitcoin when you're confined to your bedroom... 

[johnniewalker]

I'm not trying to get in the middle here but it sounds like he was layed up in the hospital or something-he got in a car accident. Kind of hard to bitinstant then head to 7/11 to use Moneygram.

[BitPirate]

I think the problem is you talk too big a game. I looked at some of your other posts... "small conglomerate startup"? Indeed.

I apologise for the ad-hominem, and pointing out your age -- but I felt I had to. Persona and ambition is all well and good... and you are numerate and literate, which is good. Unfortunately your post lacked substance.

Good luck for the future.