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Author Topic: BTC/USD: Ready for "The Running of the Bears"?  (Read 19419 times)
ATC777
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March 25, 2013, 03:49:04 AM
 #21

I just see a lot of words by 24 year-olds extrapolating irrelevant past events to the current market. The way he wrote about MACD tries to make him sound like a market veteran. It's not only misleading (you've seen this "nine times out of ten"? What an illustrious career you must have had!); This is pseudo-technical mumbo-jumbo.

I hope that people reading this advice will do their own due diligence and realise what you two are trying to do here. The shakedown already happened this weekend. You're late to the party. As usual, another week comes and brings new liquidity and buying pressure with it.

That's not what I see...

What I see is people getting upset by any opinion other than their own, and using "age elitism" to try to condescend.  Roll Eyes

If you don't agree with my analysis or my opinion, so what? Whatever. Vote with your money. No need to get hostile. And you won't be taking my money, because my money is safely on the sidelines now. It's all of your money that's up for grabs, and perhaps I might be taking it from you in another week or two.  Wink

I've been in this position before... one of my favorites was when I made a very bearish call on the S&P 500 years ago, and I was ridiculed and insulted up, down, right and left for it. And lots of forum assholes were insulting me because I was just 20 or 21 years old at the time, so I was just a "stupid kid". They said I was going to lose all my money and I should just stop trading and go kill myself. You know what happened? 4 days later, the S&P 500 plunged 55pts at the opening. My small options position I'd put $4000 into swelled to a net value of over $17,500 instantly. Then the same bullies who'd ridiculed me made a public apology thread and paid homage, which was quite amusing. The moral of this story is not that I'm the world's greatest trader (of course I'm not), but you should never call someone an idiot or mock them because of an opposing view on the market... because it might be YOU who loses all their money the next day.  Wink

I've been wrong before, and I'm prepared to be wrong again. I know how to manage my risk. And it this point my risk is 0%... you're the ones with risk, and I wish you all well.  Smiley

Regards,

--ATC--

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March 25, 2013, 03:53:31 AM
 #22

ATC I want my 6 minutes of life back that I lost reading all that bull crap!


Chill my friend.  He's just posting his analysis.

Takes courage to speak what you see when everyone else is against you.

And for what it's worth, in the top of every bubble everyone is going to be against the bears.

For what it's worth from me (you can check my other posts for calling the market):

Yes, we are definitely in an overbought situation.  Current events are fueling that frenzy.  But the fundamentals are still very strong.

The question is when is the tension strong enough from the overbought price to pull it back (like a rubber band).  Calling that exact price is pretty tough to do.

When it does get pulled back it's another great buying opportunity.  The fundamentals are just too strong to do otherwise.  And are only getting stronger.
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March 25, 2013, 03:54:12 AM
 #23

I just see a lot of words by 24 year-olds extrapolating irrelevant past events to the current market. The way he wrote about MACD tries to make him sound like a market veteran. It's not only misleading (you've seen this "nine times out of ten"? What an illustrious career you must have had!); This is pseudo-technical mumbo-jumbo.

I hope that people reading this advice will do their own due diligence and realise what you two are trying to do here. The shakedown already happened this weekend. You're late to the party. As usual, another week comes and brings new liquidity and buying pressure with it.

That's not what I see...

What I see is people getting upset by any opinion other than their own, and using "age elitism" to try to condescend.  Roll Eyes

If you don't agree with my analysis or my opinion, so what? Whatever. Vote with your money. No need to get hostile. And you won't be taking my money, because my money is safely on the sidelines now. It's all of your money that's up for grabs, and perhaps I might be taking it from you in another week or two.  Wink

I've been in this position before... one of my favorites was when I made a very bearish call on the S&P 500 years ago, and I was ridiculed and insulted up, down, right and left for it. And lots of forum assholes were insulting me because I was just 20 or 21 years old at the time, so I was just a "stupid kid". They said I was going to lose all my money and I should just stop trading and go kill myself. You know what happened? 4 days later, the S&P 500 plunged 55pts at the opening. My small options position I'd put $4000 into swelled to a net value of over $17,500 instantly. Then the same bullies who'd ridiculed me made a public apology thread and paid homage, which was quite amusing. The moral of this story is not that I'm the world's greatest trader (of course I'm not), but you should never call someone an idiot or mock them because of an opposing view on the market... because it might be YOU who loses all their money the next day.  Wink

I've been wrong before, and I'm prepared to be wrong again. I know how to manage my risk. And it this point my risk is 0%... you're the ones with risk, and I wish you all well.  Smiley

Regards,

--ATC--

Yes, and what most people who disagree with you are trying to say is just that: you cannot compare S&P 500 with bitcoins. They are entirely different beasts.
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March 25, 2013, 03:56:05 AM
 #24

Markets often tend to get overbought and stay overbought for long time until they stop. The "overbought" term is so overused by TA charlatans that it has became completely and utterly pointless.


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ATC777
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March 25, 2013, 03:56:55 AM
 #25

Yes, and what most people who disagree with you are trying to say is just that: you cannot compare S&P 500 with bitcoins. They are entirely different beasts.

And that's a totally incorrect assumption. Human psychology hasn't changed since the tulip mania of the 17th century. ;-)

P.S. -- If you have Netflix you should all watch the documentary called "Mind Over Money"...

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March 25, 2013, 04:03:34 AM
 #26

@ Sage :

Thank you for a very eloquent and reasonable post, and for expressing your differing view with great civility.  Smiley

And for what it's worth, in the top of every bubble everyone is going to be against the bears.

That is absolutely correct. Just when everyone thinks they're safe:



 Grin Grin Grin

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March 25, 2013, 04:07:36 AM
 #27

Markets often tend to get overbought and stay overbought for long time until they stop. The "overbought" term is so overused by TA charlatans that it has became completely and utterly pointless.



Every market is going to have a price / value ratio.  The value of Bitcoins is increasing.  The question is is the price increasing faster then the value?

Because you have 2 moving variables, the price, and the value.  And one is very hard to define, overbought can best be signaled by current momentum compared to past momentum.

If the momentum slows (as we are seeing), long enough the "tension" between the value and the price loosens, making room for another run on the breakout of that slowed momentum.

The question right now, is do we have enough of a slowing in momentum long enough to ease that tension?  I'm watching this current consolidation closely.

No market, Bitcoin or otherwise, can see increasing momentum forever.
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March 25, 2013, 04:08:43 AM
 #28

I will give you my analysis that is way shorter and more accurate:

Don't bet against bitcoin.

Bitcoin is deflationary, it's designed that way therefore if no external factors such as security flaws affect the coin, then it'll grow as people adopt it, either users, speculators, hoarders, you name it.
If you look at bitcoin in the next 4 years, you have the concept wrong unless you really want to profit in the short term and that's ok, but the real money will be made in 5-10 years from now.
Easy example:
May 21 2010    laszlo first to buy pizza with Bitcoins agreeing upon paying 10,000 BTC for ~$25 worth of pizza courtesy of jercos

Source: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/History#2008

That pizza is worth 700,000 today!

We are talking about an event that occurred less than 3 years ago!
All your analysis is fundamentally flawed from the very first word.
Trying to analyze bitcoin the way analyst analyze stocks is erroneous as well.
But that's ok, I'm not here to educate bears, I love bears, they give me the opportunity to make even more money!

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March 25, 2013, 04:13:03 AM
 #29

ATC I want my 6 minutes of life back that I lost reading all that bull crap!


Chill my friend.  He's just posting his analysis.


Out of the goodness of his heart?

Or in order to precipitate a sell-off and shake down some weak hands?

He's shorted BTC; he's on the sidelines. The way this analysis was worded was intentionally to have the biggest beneficial impact to himself.

I think he's mis-called this one; Friday was the day to do that.

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March 25, 2013, 04:19:24 AM
 #30

ATC I want my 6 minutes of life back that I lost reading all that bull crap!


Chill my friend.  He's just posting his analysis.


Out of the goodness of his heart?

Or in order to precipitate a sell-off and shake down some weak hands?

He's shorted BTC; he's on the sidelines. The way this analysis was worded was intentionally to have the biggest beneficial impact to himself.

I think he's mis-called this one; Friday was the day to do that.

Hmmm.... What do I say here?

You're suggesting quite a powerful hand he holds for one thread he starts to move the market.

Wow, who is this kid with that kind of power?  Or is it Jedi Mind tricks Wink
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March 25, 2013, 04:21:23 AM
 #31

Point taken -- if the market is that jittery, then that would mean we were near a top anyway.

But when there are a bunch of new hands, probably directly inbound from Reddit trying to chase the train, I wouldn't underestimate the power of this speculation forum.

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March 25, 2013, 04:21:56 AM
 #32

Don't bet against bitcoin.

No one suggested betting against Bitcoin. I love Bitcoin. I suggested people take their profits, enjoy them and relax.  Smiley

Bitcoin is deflationary, it's designed that way therefore if no external factors such as security flaws affect the coin, then it'll grow as people adopt it, either users, speculators, hoarders, you name it.

So the price of bitcoin never goes down? Have you ever even seen a chart before? Nothing moves in straight lines when humans are buying and selling it, my friend.

If you look at bitcoin in the next 4 years, you have the concept wrong unless you really want to profit in the short term and that's ok, but the real money will be made in 5-10 years from now.

I agree. I'm bullish on BTC/USD long-term. Evidently you didn't understand a word of my post or the implications of the analysis.  Wink

That pizza is worth 700,000 today!

Yummy...

All your analysis is fundamentally flawed from the very first word.
Trying to analyze bitcoin the way analyst analyze stocks is erroneous as well.
But that's ok, I'm not here to educate bears, I love bears, they give me the opportunity to make even more money!

I don't think you understand what technical analysis is... TA can be used on ANYTHING people buy and sell. The way a stock analyst analyzes stocks is by the fundamentals (EPS, Price-to-Earnings Ratio, etc). I'm glad this "bear" was able to educate you. You're welcome!  Wink

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March 25, 2013, 04:25:14 AM
 #33

Yes, and what most people who disagree with you are trying to say is just that: you cannot compare S&P 500 with bitcoins. They are entirely different beasts.

And that's a totally incorrect assumption. Human psychology hasn't changed since the tulip mania of the 17th century. ;-)

P.S. -- If you have Netflix you should all watch the documentary called "Mind Over Money"...

This^
Bitcoin is no different than any other financial market on Earth.  When dealing with money, and the gain and loss thereof, there are the EXACT same psychological effects as other markets. This same psychology is the basis to Elliot Wave Theory, and the number one reason why you get panic in either direction.
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March 25, 2013, 04:26:37 AM
 #34

Out of the goodness of his heart?

Or in order to precipitate a sell-off and shake down some weak hands?

He's shorted BTC; he's on the sidelines. The way this analysis was worded was intentionally to have the biggest beneficial impact to himself.

I think he's mis-called this one; Friday was the day to do that.

It is absolutely out of the goodness of my heart (and hopefully some tips from those who enjoy learning about TA). And just as others have, you can disagree with my conclusion and learn from the analysis. Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options. I only hope to help people and offer advice and insight, and I hope someone out there will be inspired by my chart-work and analysis and make themselves a lot of money too.  Smiley

Regards,

--ATC--

EDIT:

Unfortunately, Sage has exposed me... Yes, I confess it... I am a jedi, and this has all been reverse-reverse-reverse reverse psychology to trick everyone into first selling, then buying, then selling again, and then buying and then selling. Damn, caught me!  Grin

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March 25, 2013, 04:36:34 AM
 #35


Unfortunately, Sage has exposed me... Yes, I confess it... I am a jedi, and this has all been reverse-reverse-reverse reverse psychology to trick everyone into first selling, then buying, then selling again, and then buying and then selling. Damn, caught me!  Grin
I must admit I got higly confused on this part trying to keep track of what your goal was in the end lol Tongue
I figured it out tho
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March 25, 2013, 04:44:15 AM
 #36

LOL!

1. See a double top at 20ish
2. Sell your bitcoin
3. Buy back at 40ish
4.  Huh
5. Profit

As I'm planning to make some large purchases of BTC, I decided to perform an in-depth price analysis as I would before taking any significant position in any market. I come from a background in equities, futures and FOREX and I'm still learning the ins and outs of the Bitcoin exchange market and "Bitconomy", but technical analysis abstracts away most of the underlying fundamentals and allows a trader to focus on the market action / data itself. It amounts to a form of "mass psychology", allowing the analyst to make "forecasts" on asset prices. So what I've done here is spent a little time analyzing the BTC/USD rate and attempting to decipher the ebb and flow of the market from the charts and data. Some people swear by the technicals, and some hate it... But it's made me several small fortunes over the years, and that's enough for me.  Cool

Here we go... The overall picture I have of the BTC/USD rate is one with a very bullish long-term future; but due for a short-term correction. The resistance we have seen in the $22.00 neighborhood has proven much stronger than most would've thought, and there it seems that sell orders are stacking up. There are also a lot of traders on OTC trying to liquidate their holdings of several hundred BTC. I think we're simply over-extended at these levels, and need a healthy correction. Lots of speculative $ are stacked up in the BTC and trigger fingers are itchy... Let's look at the chart-work:

First we need to take a look at a 3-month chart, to get an idea of what's been happening over a wider time-frame:



It seems apparent we've been on a major tear, and the bulls haven't been able to keep running. That is one big divergence in our moving averages, and the MACD is indicating a big drop in momentum. I think it won't be long before we have a cross in the MACD and the rolling correction (if we get one) begins. As of right now we're merely hovering just beneath resistance and just above the EMA-14. Volume has sloped off as well. A little bit of selling pressure can trigger a much bigger move.

Now we'll take a look at what has happened in the last 10 days:



I have added numbers on this chart to comment on each thing...

1) The most troubling bearish signal I see here is the classic double-top pattern. This is a bearish pattern in which the market reaches a high point, falls back, attempts to reach a new high but fails -- followed by a correction or sell-off.

2) This shorter time-frame gives us a snapshot of MACD as it is approaching the signal line for a cross. Falling below the signal line typically indicates a high potential for downward momentum which will carry on for a while. There is also a growing negative divergence, which is evident by looking at the expanse of the histogram.

3) The #3 points to the tightest resistance line, found around $21.50. We have tested this resistance line twice, and have failed both times. This strongly suggests we're not ready to take out this conceptual barrier just yet -- we've already had a tremendous move.

4) Both of our exponential moving averages (EMAs) are beginning to take a negative attitude and are rapidly converging. We should watch for a cross in the EMA-14 and EMA-60 and interpret it as a signal the correction may be beginning.

5) Volume, volume, volume!!! Where has all the buying volume gone off to? I can tell you: people are feeling iffy about this current price level after this huge move up. This has a very bearish echo, in my opinion, as it suggests new buyers/speculators are not pumping the $ into BTC at this level. People (by which I mean regular users) are complaining about Bitcoins being "expensive" to buy, and that means a slowdown for Bitcoin sellers. A slowdown for sellers means less buy orders on the exchanges, and we all know what that means. They say "price is king", but volume can speak volumes.  Smiley

I'd like to say a few things to conclude my analysis and break-down... By looking at the EMA-60 on the 3mo chart (the first picture), we can estimate that support will fall around the $16 level. Prices tend to stick to longer-term moving averages in corrections, and that's the one I've got my eye on. I think it's best we take some profits here and now and let this thing cool off. It's not good to stretch too far too fast -- you create big bubbles that can bust a whole economy. So don't view a correction as a bad thing but rather a very good thing. It will give us all the opportunity to make an intelligent and thoughtful re-entry into the BTC market and enjoy the next leg-up. But keep in mind that technical analysis is NOT about "predicting" markets -- none of this is set in stone. Technical analysis is a never-ending quest to become a master of data and chart interpretation and make better risk management and trading decisions.

Personally, I'm planning to buy a large amount of BTC right away. But I'm actually going to transfer it all to my new MtGox and exchange accounts to sell and hold in the form of fiat, giving the correction some room to run. As the price falls I will be buying BTC in increments, in a pyramid-shaped fashion -- this "dollar cost averaging" will allow me to progressively improve my entry point into the market and actually lower my average unit cost. Of course, I'm also accumulating a lot of gold and silver. In dollar terms, gold and silver are a bargain -- and we have another round of QE underway. The good thing about holding gold and silver during a BTC/USD correction is I get a lot more bang for my buck when I sell my bullion and move back to cheaper BTC.  Cool

Regards,

--ATC--

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March 25, 2013, 04:56:11 AM
 #37

Don't bet against bitcoin.

No one suggested betting against Bitcoin. I love Bitcoin. I suggested people take their profits, enjoy them and relax.  Smiley

Bitcoin is deflationary, it's designed that way therefore if no external factors such as security flaws affect the coin, then it'll grow as people adopt it, either users, speculators, hoarders, you name it.

So the price of bitcoin never goes down? Have you ever even seen a chart before? Nothing moves in straight lines when humans are buying and selling it, my friend.

Yes, but look why it goes down. And no, in the long term the price of bitcoin will go up. You are too young, too excited about an analysis that is based on your newly learn "skill" just because you read the economist, the WSJ doesn't mean you know what's going on. I'm lad you're able to analyze bitcoin from a technical level, but that analysis doesn't show anything new nor contributes to make an informed decision.

If you look at bitcoin in the next 4 years, you have the concept wrong unless you really want to profit in the short term and that's ok, but the real money will be made in 5-10 years from now.

I agree. I'm bullish on BTC/USD long-term. Evidently you didn't understand a word of my post or the implications of the analysis.  Wink

Ok, you asked for it, let me rip your analysis apart:
"Last time I was uncertain about what was to come... but this time I'm going to go out on a limb and make you a clear-cut suggestion: sell. I'm selling. We've all made a lot of money, and no one has ever been hurt taking a profit"

Don't sell, sell and you'll regret it in 2-3 years, this kid thinks that because he knows a few technical concepts he can analyze and predict that bitcoing will go down, yet he states above: "I'm bullish on BTC/USD long-term".
You're already making at least 200-300% if you got in at 20-30, the risk of selling your coins and risking not making way more money is way more than keeping them and losing all the profit or investment.
What's the reasoning behind a sell? Make up your mind, if you're bullish on the long term, why risking selling your coins? To be able to rebuy at cheaper prices? Maybe buying 10% more on a dip?  Is that worth the risk knowing bitcoin will most likely to up over time?

"no one has infinite money to keep pushing the price to infinity"
Inciting money? Do you realize that bitcoin market is less then 1 billion? We are talking about a world currency! One billion is a drop in the ocean! The adoption potential is so high that it is beyond anything you can possibly understand. A 5th grader can probably understand that better than you and your analysis can.

"If you're patient and smart, you might be able to buy back your bitcoins in the $30s or $40s in another 7-14 days.... or at least in the 50s"
And if you're wrong, then you will be able to get back in with 10-20% less bitcoins that you will never have again or you will have a hard time to recover... In a market that lacks offers and is full of bids.

"However, there's another scenario which might take place. It might be that there's still enough money on the sidelines to drive this higher. If that is indeed the case, we're probably going to see the alternative crash scenario play out. The final "oomph!" before the blowout. Much like silver's huge over-night jump before the 2011 correction, we might see bitcoin tack on another +$25 and reach for the $100 mark (a key psychological level)"

So what kind of conclusion is this? A "I cover my ass just in case im wrong conclusion?" Why is $100 a key psychological level? 32 wasn't a big deal psychologically speaking, $50 wasn't either, where is the psycho-logical explanation for the $100 level? Is it because it has two zeros? Not sure i understand please explain further.

"If it plays out this way, the following crash will be much worse and longer-lasting than if it just goes ahead and corrects here"
Why the crash will be much worse? Because its more money? You need to think percentages, 2% of 100 is way more than 2% of 30, and the more adoption in the coin will without a doubt impact how bitcoin fluctuates bitcoin is way too young and way too exposed to pump and dumps, once we surpass a few billion dollars in market cap, then the coin will be much harder to move, at least at the same levels of fluctuations that we have nowadays.

"In any case, I raise my cup to a bitcoin correction. I'm optimistic about the long-term future of bitcoin"

Why on earth would you recommend selling if you are optimistic about the future of bitcoin? Why would anyone risk and I state this again selling a few bitcoins if the long term is optimistic? What's your correction price? 40-50? That correction happened and it went up again. The coin can fluctuate as much, you won't see 20's again that's for sure, yo u most likely see $100 before seeing 20's again, so you're selling? I'm buying, I'm buying at 60, at 70, and at 80...
In 2015 ill be the guy that didn't buy that pizza for 0.5BTC and who knows, maybe 0.5 might be worth $700,000

So please, do sell!

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March 25, 2013, 04:56:39 AM
 #38

LOL!

1. See a double top at 20ish
2. Sell your bitcoin
3. Buy back at 40ish
4.  Huh
5. Profit

Erm, no... You either did not actually read or failed to understand. Last time I was watching/hoping for a correction, and I bought BTC. Finger was on the trigger, but never pulled it because it set a new high and kept going. So I held my coins. Just like Keynes said "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

I started selling yesterday and finished today. But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity. And the fear of missing an opportunity has driven men beyond counting to ruin.  Wink

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March 25, 2013, 05:03:31 AM
 #39


I started selling yesterday and finished today. But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity. And the fear of missing an opportunity has driven men beyond counting to ruin.  Wink

For a long-term bitcoin believer, selling at 20 and buying back at 40 is losing 50% of bitcoin

Good luck with your double top call. This pattern has happened many times in the past 2 months.

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March 25, 2013, 05:07:01 AM
 #40

A pattern like this has happened many times in the last few months allowing me to buy back in at 64 57 and even 36.8.
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