The team not having enough funding from the ICO is exactly what I'm worried about. At the moment there is no real incentive for existing investors not to take a refund as the plan is for the refunded tokens to go back to the developers. What if a few whales leave, does the house of cards collapse? Is there any way to see the investments to date.... I mean are most of the transfers large ones or have we safety in numbers with a high number of distributed transfers and early adopters?
I disagree there are many incentives to stay in. For one Lisk refunds really don't make sense. The avarage median price of the TECs duration is above 0.00022, that is much better than the current lisk price, and that's beside the additional Lisk bonuses. Simply put the ARK most people will get for their Lisk in ARK worth much more than the same amount of lisk currently does on the open market.
Even besides that there are other reasons to stay in. It's up to individuals to assess the risk/reward ratio, but this may very well be the cheapest opportunity to buy ARK. I know everyone always says that, but in this case it's more probable than in most others.
It's always possible to the price to crash after ARK gets to exchanges, but as it will have a low initial market cap it is much less likely than with other overbought projects. Every project that's price crashed hard after launch had either been a very big ICO success or other reasons contributed, like huge bounties. We were very carful to assign reasonable bonuties, so there will probably be much less effect from the bounty dumping crowed than with other projects.
Simply put, a large part of a team is experienced crpyto people with years in the sence and seen and participated in many ICOs, so we made our best effort to don't make mistakes seen in the past.
Of course there are always new mistakes to be made, so nothing is guranteed. Again, it will be up to individuals to decide to ask for refund or not.
If there are too much refund requests then we must have done something seriously wrong. Because if nothing else from an traders point of view it's worth the moderate risk of leaving funds where they are just so the project can have a succesful start and by that giving them the opportunity to see a new coin hit the exchanges.
There are many people and many motivations in crpyto scene, we'll see how things develop.