[Group Buy#1] Avalon ASICs CHIPS! Using JohnK as escrow! FINISHED!

[bigbeninlondon]

If not seeking a refund is so awesome, feel free to purchase my 51 chips.
BTC4

That's more than they cost originally: BTC4 / 51 = .078

If you said, BTC2.5 I might be interested. 

I'm going to stick it out with my chips for now because if enough people seek refunds, the chips that do get put to mining will make more money.

It was always a gamble.  I want to see it through.

[erschiessen]

If not seeking a refund is so awesome, feel free to purchase my 51 chips.
BTC4

That's more than they cost originally: BTC4 / 51 = .078

If you said, BTC2.5 I might be interested. 

I'm going to stick it out with my chips for now because if enough people seek refunds, the chips that do get put to mining will make more money.

It was always a gamble.  I want to see it through.

4 < 4.135

One can look on raging's spreadsheet and see what was paid and for what quantity.

[bigbeninlondon]

Ok, so it's "almost exactly" what they originally cost.  Still way too high considering the risk that has been introduced with all of this delays

[Egon]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=177827.msg3035535#msg3035535

FYI for everyone in this buy, from my other order in the zefir buy.

Yifu it seems is open to refunds.  I know a lot of the group has NREs in pcbs and the like, but I would be open to a BTC refund especially considering the headache that has occurred here.  This has the added bonus that the coins will return to John K since it was his address that paid.

John K, if you can contact Yifu / BitSyncom, can you explore the feasibility of this as an option?  I for one would prefer the refund of BTC.  Those with pcb orders, based on what I read the 55nm process chip "coming soon" from avalon will be the same form factor and can probably operate on existing designed boards (with some modifications of other components).

[AMuppInTime]

I'm fine with a refund, hell I pretty much gave up on this a long time ago and this would be a nice surprise (69 chips).

[bigbeninlondon]

If we can get a refund I'm all for it; I haven't paid for assembly yet for this buy.  However it'd have to be unanimous; some people may want to stick it out and I don't want to force anyone to take a refund if they still want their chips.

[Noitev]

+1 for refund if possible.

[wrenchmonkey]

Ditto to getting a refund at this point. Odds of break-even are pretty dismal at this point, let alone an ROI. I say we get refunds, and consider doing another order if/when 2gen chips become available.

Between ragin's blatant pissing away of his trustworthiness/reliability, Avalon's failings, customs issues (and potential for even bigger issues when the big day comes), etc, etc.

I say we get out while the gettin's good, before Yifu takes another page from the BFL book, and revokes his offer for refunds.

[redphlegm]

Ditto to getting a refund at this point. Odds of break-even are pretty dismal at this point, let alone an ROI. I say we get refunds, and consider doing another order if/when 2gen chips become available.

Between ragin's blatant pissing away of his trustworthiness/reliability, Avalon's failings, customs issues (and potential for even bigger issues when the big day comes), etc, etc.

I say we get out while the gettin's good, before Yifu takes another page from the BFL book, and revokes his offer for refunds.

What about the NRE costs that people like ryepdx incurred and we paid? I'm not opposed to a refund necessarily but (and maybe I'm being too soft here) I don't want the people who stepped up to make all this happen to get screwed. It will only serve as a disincentive to step up for the next deal. It should be something like half of what we spent on this as credit toward next-gen; or simply refund half and still allow us to keep the chips.

[bigbeninlondon]

If even one person wants to stick it out, we should.  We all signed up for this knowing batch #3 avalons were already delayed.  We knew the possibility of this falling through.  Also, we're one of the earlier batches.  I'd almost rather just stick it out.  If everyone votes refund, I'll vote refund too; but if one person votes no, I'll vote no with them.

Anyone else go with Steamboat for assembly from this group buy?

[Noitev]

I don't wanna shoot myself in the foot just because its an early order, even the earliest orders are losing money if they dont take a refund...

[Noitev]

I will sell my 592 chips (and any refund rights) from this group buy for just 42 BTC. This is less than 0.071 per chip with the potential to get more back if they process a refund. I need funds asap

[wrenchmonkey]

Ditto to getting a refund at this point. Odds of break-even are pretty dismal at this point, let alone an ROI. I say we get refunds, and consider doing another order if/when 2gen chips become available.

Between ragin's blatant pissing away of his trustworthiness/reliability, Avalon's failings, customs issues (and potential for even bigger issues when the big day comes), etc, etc.

I say we get out while the gettin's good, before Yifu takes another page from the BFL book, and revokes his offer for refunds.

What about the NRE costs that people like ryepdx incurred and we paid? I'm not opposed to a refund necessarily but (and maybe I'm being too soft here) I don't want the people who stepped up to make all this happen to get screwed. It will only serve as a disincentive to step up for the next deal. It should be something like half of what we spent on this as credit toward next-gen; or simply refund half and still allow us to keep the chips.

Yifu has made it clear he's not interested in working any deals. Especially not with credit toward next gen.

Take the refund, or get screwed seem to be the options on the table.

We're never going to break even on this. The hardware we've paid for should still theoretically work for 2gen chips when they come available. Regardless, that money is already lost anyway, because these chips aren't going to break even. Cut your losses and hope that 2gen chips can work with the same hardware.

It sucks for assemblers who might have pre-ordered parts, but I have no financial obligation to make their own personal investments profitable. Like I said, hopefully there's still an opportunity for that to happen for them when 2gen comes available, but the only smart move at this point is to take the refund for now, and then re-evaluate when there's some more clear info on 2gen chips.

The way I see it, the entire deal is in breach, six ways to Sunday. I want out, and selling our chips at a loss (or riding the thing to the ground) is not the smart way to get out; especially when we've just been handed a perfectly good parachute in the form of a 100% refund.

[bassclef]

I'm still in but I have over 900 chips in this group buy and the rest in Steamboat batch one (just chips). ROI still looks good but only because I'm planning over 500GH. In light of recent events though, I don't blame the smaller orders for wanting a refund.

I have parts ordered and ready to build 100 K16s locally, I even have extra of some of the hard-to-find parts, so maybe if steamboat offers a refund I will be able to pick up more chips here. No guarantees though.

The whole situation is really unfortunate and I'm trying hard to stay positive and make the most of it. Steamboat, Zefir, Chris (Bkkcoins) and others have put so much work into this, it would be a shame if nobody put these Klondikes to work.

[scotjam]

Ok, so it's "almost exactly" what they originally cost.  Still way too high considering the risk that has been introduced with all of this delays

If you think so, you should seek a refund too - you'll get more back per chip than the price mentioned above (which you judge to be "way too high")

[bigbeninlondon]

Ok, so it's "almost exactly" what they originally cost.  Still way too high considering the risk that has been introduced with all of this delays

If you think so, you should seek a refund too - you'll get more back per chip than the price mentioned above (which you judge to be "way too high")

Already stated I'm ok with a refund; at this point I could tip either way.  At 4 btc, that is too high to risk ADDITIONAL money on something in which I've already put everything I care to lose.  Why would I risk additional money at the same price point for something I may be already looking to get a refund for?  If I could get it for significantly less considering the information we have now that we didn't have then, it may be more prudent.

[wrenchmonkey]

I'm still in but I have over 900 chips in this group buy and the rest in Steamboat batch one (just chips). ROI still looks good but only because I'm planning over 500GH. In light of recent events though, I don't blame the smaller orders for wanting a refund.

I have parts ordered and ready to build 100 K16s locally, I even have extra of some of the hard-to-find parts, so maybe if steamboat offers a refund I will be able to pick up more chips here. No guarantees though.

The whole situation is really unfortunate and I'm trying hard to stay positive and make the most of it. Steamboat, Zefir, Chris (Bkkcoins) and others have put so much work into this, it would be a shame if nobody put these Klondikes to work.

ROI only looks good if you assume that your chips are the only ones that get put on line... I have every belief that Avalon will deliver on the chips. It's the timeline that matters. So you have to assume all of those chips going on line, and base your assessment off of that. Anything else is a pipe dream.

I too hope to see the Klondikes working. I donated some funds and bought a digital microscope for BKKCoins.

As I said before, my hope and belief is that the hardware that has been developed already will still work with minimal reworking with the gen2 chip (and since it uses the same packaging, etc, that's HIGHLY likely).

[scotjam]

Ok, so it's "almost exactly" what they originally cost.  Still way too high considering the risk that has been introduced with all of this delays

If you think so, you should seek a refund too - you'll get more back per chip than the price mentioned above (which you judge to be "way too high")

Already stated I'm ok with a refund; at this point I could tip either way.  At 4 btc, that is too high to risk ADDITIONAL money on something in which I've already put everything I care to lose.  Why would I risk additional money at the same price point for something I may be already looking to get a refund for?  If I could get it for significantly less considering the information we have now that we didn't have then, it may be more prudent.

Yeah - doubling down isn't necessarily the best strategy at this stage. As per noitev's post though, there is alternatively the opportunity to buy, then seek a refund; some people need their coins faster...

Someone could make about 5BTC on his chips if they had 42BTC sitting around gathering dust, and were confident that a refund could be achieved. Probably a better risk/reward profile than buying mining equipment (but maybe not as much fun).

[bassclef]

ROI only looks good if you assume that your chips are the only ones that get put on line...

If the difficulty levels off somewhat, 500GH will still be profitable for me. It's simply not sustainable for difficulty to continue rising 75% per month. That puts it at 600 million in December. Obviously I'm betting against that. Also, buying the parts myself I've saved a considerable amount on assembly costs.

As I said before, my hope and belief is that the hardware that has been developed already will still work with minimal reworking with the gen2 chip (and since it uses the same packaging, etc, that's HIGHLY likely).

I like this idea, but it's just too much of a gamble given Avalon's recent track record (will they deliver gen2 chips on time?) and the fact that Bkkcoins already stated he would be hesitant to work on updating his board design for them.

[wrenchmonkey]

ROI only looks good if you assume that your chips are the only ones that get put on line...

If the difficulty levels off somewhat, 500GH will still be profitable for me. It's simply not sustainable for difficulty to continue rising 75% per month. That puts it at 600 million in December. Obviously I'm betting against that. Also, buying the parts myself I've saved a considerable amount on assembly costs.

I'm not really sure what you expect a million chips going on line all around the same (from ONE supplier) time to do, but if you actually believe that they will deliver eventually (and I do), you cannot ignore the fact that difficulty will be AT LEAST a couple hundred million by the end of the year. Scale doesn't matter. ROI is ROI is ROI. Doesn't matter if you bought 16 chips, or 16000 chips. Your return rate still remains exactly the same, relative to difficulty and the hash rate of each individual chip. Unless you're using somebody else's electricity, and using THAT as a way to effectively funnel money out of the electricity bill payer's pocket and into yours, there's no way that your scale affects profitability in any meaningful sense.

As I said before, my hope and belief is that the hardware that has been developed already will still work with minimal reworking with the gen2 chip (and since it uses the same packaging, etc, that's HIGHLY likely).

I like this idea, but it's just too much of a gamble given Avalon's recent track record (will they deliver gen2 chips on time?) and the fact that Bkkcoins already stated he would be hesitant to work on updating his board design for them.

I hope he has a change of heart, as much for his own sake as anybody else's. There's still a LOT of potential with 2gen chips.

If they come to fruition (which they likely will) he'd be a fool not to. I doubt anybody's going to develop anything for 2gen chips until they already have some IN HAND to work with, which should be enough to reassure them that their efforts are worthwhile.

There are, of course, no guarantees when it comes to 2gen chips. But that's why I said we should reevaluate 2gen chips when/if they do come through.

The only sure thing right now is that we've already lost on gen1. That ship has sailed, and is now crashing and burning. We've just been offered a lifeboat in the form of a refund. Some people, it would seem, are hell bent on getting their 'Caribbean Cruise,' even if it means going down with the ship and drowning.

It's not a gamble at all to say "Let's take the lifeboat back to shore, get the refund for our cruise ticket, and see if we can book another cruise. Worst case scenario, you're no worse off than you were before the ship started going down. "But, but, but! There will still be the chance I might not get my cruise!"

YOU AREN'T GETTING YOUR CRUISE AT ALL, IF YOU STAY ON THIS BOAT! You MIGHT get your cruise if you come, you might not. The only SURE way to lose is to stay on the boat. If you take the lifeboat, worst case scenario, you are back where you started, with a bundle of bitcoin in your pocket.

The gamble is staying on board, in spite of all evidence that it's going down, based on the delusional belief that since YOU have a FIRST CLASS ticket, YOU are sure to get the carribean cruise you paid for... (But you can 'totally understand why the 'coach' passengers might want to take the lifeboat back to shore)...