[Group Buy#1] Avalon ASICs CHIPS! Using JohnK as escrow! FINISHED!

[scotjam]

Scale doesn't matter. ROI is ROI is ROI. Doesn't matter if you bought 16 chips, or 16000 chips. Your return rate still remains exactly the same, relative to difficulty and the hash rate of each individual chip. Unless you're using somebody else's electricity, and using THAT as a way to effectively funnel money out of the electricity bill payer's pocket and into yours, there's no way that your scale affects profitability in any meaningful sense.

Absolutely. The only (probably marginal) exception to this is that if you're doing things in scale, your costs are lower per board (bulk buying etc) so you have less hashing to do to get a return.

When difficulty is going the way it is going though...

[flyG]

+1 for a refund, it's time to cut our losses
Got 32 chips from JahPowerBit

[scotjam]

It sounds like there is quite a lot of demand for a refund here. Who is organising this? ragingazn628 - will you be coordinating this? Will you liase with JohnK?

[darkjed]

182 chips here, I don't want to try for a refund.

[bigbeninlondon]

182 chips here, I don't want to try for a refund.

Then me either; anyone who doesn't want a refund shouldn't be forced into one.  I don't think Yifu is doing partial refunds for chips, so we should just see this through.

[erschiessen]

I don't understand why folks wouldn't want a full refund.

There are folks selling their chips at steep discounts, one could use refunded btc to greatly increase their chipcount.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=273887.0

[CoinHoarder]

100% refund.

Avalon cannot be trusted to deliver when they say they will, we need to get out while we still can. They only allowed 3 days for Avalon batch 3 Avalons. Get out now while we still can!!!!

Not to mention I still have a feeling raginazn might steal our chips anyways.

[scotjam]

100% refund.

Avalon cannot be trusted to deliver when they say they will, we need to get out while we still can. They only allowed 3 days for Avalon batch 3 Avalons. Get out now while we still can!!!!

Not to mention I still have a feeling raginazn might steal our chips anyways.

182 chips here, I don't want to try for a refund.

Then me either; anyone who doesn't want a refund shouldn't be forced into one.  I don't think Yifu is doing partial refunds for chips, so we should just see this through.

I'm also concerned that we have barely heard a peep from ragingazn628 on this stuff, and I'm worried that he won't be in a position to organise this. We also haven't seen much of JohnK lately. If there's one group buy that desperately needs to get a refund, it's this one, because (frankly) even when the chips are delivered, there were/are(?) still a lot of people in this group buy who are not 100% sure any more that the chips will be distributed (at least not in a reasonable time frame). A good lead indicator is the sample chips - anyone know what happened to them??

Also, it isn't really possible to make a significant return, even in the best case, unless the chips are delivered *now* and you pay nothing for assembly http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

JohnK/ragingazin628 - if you're reading this, please help!

[scotjam]

182 chips here, I don't want to try for a refund.

Then me either; anyone who doesn't want a refund shouldn't be forced into one.  I don't think Yifu is doing partial refunds for chips, so we should just see this through.

And if you do want chips, as erschiessen says, take the refund anyway. There are tons of them for sale at discounted prices from people who know they won't make any ROI. I know it's painful having waited so long for these to not get them, but it will be better in the long run to get hold of cheaper chips.

Avalon cannot be trusted to deliver when they say they will, we need to get out while we still can. They only allowed 3 days for Avalon batch 3 Avalons. Get out now while we still can!!!!

I hadn't realised that CH - we definitely need to act now.

[bigbeninlondon]

182 chips here, I don't want to try for a refund.

Then me either; anyone who doesn't want a refund shouldn't be forced into one.  I don't think Yifu is doing partial refunds for chips, so we should just see this through.

And if you do want chips, as erschiessen says, take the refund anyway. There are tons of them for sale at discounted prices from people who know they won't make any ROI. I know it's painful having waited so long for these to not get them, but it will be better in the long run to get hold of cheaper chips.

Avalon cannot be trusted to deliver when they say they will, we need to get out while we still can. They only allowed 3 days for Avalon batch 3 Avalons. Get out now while we still can!!!!

I hadn't realised that CH - we definitely need to act now.

Most chips being sold are in large lots.  I had 20 in this group buy... what am I supposed to do?  My refund won't cover the minimum for most of the resellers minimums.

[Doomsby]

I would like to put my vote towards getting a refund. It seems like it is still going to be awhile till we get the chips.

[Noitev]

I propose we do a vote and if 2/3 want a refund, we do that, otherwise we continue. If anyone wants to manage a spreadsheet for the votes, I'll pay a few bitcents...

[Noitev]

I think John K is mia cause he's on vacation.

Anyone interested in my offer? 42 btc for 592 anyone?

[prodigits7]

I think John K is mia cause he's on vacation.

Anyone interested in my offer? 42 btc for 592 anyone?

I just sent you a PM

[wrenchmonkey]

182 chips here, I don't want to try for a refund.

Then me either; anyone who doesn't want a refund shouldn't be forced into one.  I don't think Yifu is doing partial refunds for chips, so we should just see this through.

And anyone who does want a refund should be forced into not getting one? The contract is in breach, trust has been breached at EVERY LEVEL of this thing (except for JohnK, who still has his integrity intact). The whole thing was a clusterfuck even BEFORE Yifu went off the deep end: Customs issues (allegedly); Ragin is clearly mentally unstable, unreliable, and untrustworthy; we were already trying to figure out who was even going to take on responsibility for getting these things shipped to buyers, since Ragin can't be trusted to follow through.

Stick a fork in it. This thing is done. Time to accept it and move on. As I said before, the original contract that we all signed up for has been breached. The ONLY reasonable thing at this point is a full refund. If you still want to ride the roller coaster, there are still people who are selling their orders on other group buys at a discount. Get the full refund, and then buy MORE chips at a discount. Either way, refunds on THIS group buy are win/win at this point.

If people want to continue with a contract that is in breach (which creates NEW terms, and therefore a NEW agreement) then those people who want to continue with the new terms need to buy out those of us who bought into this thing in good faith that the terms of the contract would be met.

And a buyout means FULL purchase price too. So don't offer to buy my 85 chips for 2 BTC... I'll accept the 6.83077137 BTC I paid, or the highest bid OVER that amount. 

[bigbeninlondon]

182 chips here, I don't want to try for a refund.

Then me either; anyone who doesn't want a refund shouldn't be forced into one.  I don't think Yifu is doing partial refunds for chips, so we should just see this through.

And anyone who does want a refund should be forced into not getting one? The contract is in breach, trust has been breached at EVERY LEVEL of this thing (except for JohnK, who still has his integrity intact). The whole thing was a clusterfuck even BEFORE Yifu went off the deep end: Customs issues (allegedly); Ragin is clearly mentally unstable, unreliable, and untrustworthy; we were already trying to figure out who was even going to take on responsibility for getting these things shipped to buyers, since Ragin can't be trusted to follow through.

Stick a fork in it. This thing is done. Time to accept it and move on. As I said before, the original contract that we all signed up for has been breached. The ONLY reasonable thing at this point is a full refund. If you still want to ride the roller coaster, there are still people who are selling their orders on other group buys at a discount. Get the full refund, and then buy MORE chips at a discount. Either way, refunds on THIS group buy are win/win at this point.

If people want to continue with a contract that is in breach (which creates NEW terms, and therefore a NEW agreement) then those people who want to continue with the new terms need to buy out those of us who bought into this thing in good faith that the terms of the contract would be met.

And a buyout means FULL purchase price too. So don't offer to buy my 85 chips for 2 BTC... I'll accept the 6.83077137 BTC I paid, or the highest bid OVER that amount. 

We all entered into this knowing the state of Batch #3.  It was late.  Anyone who didn't expect this thing to be late didn't do their homework. 

At this point I'm betting our chips are already shipped.  What happens when the chips show up?  Still get a refund?  Send them back? 

[ecliptic]

Vote my 572 chips AGAINST refund.

[ecliptic]

What the fuck are you going to do with your refund?  Bitfury Oct won't make ROI.

Where the fuck do you think you can put it and have a better shot for mining?

AND THERE IS NO REFUND FOR ASSEMBLIES.  THAT'S HALF THE COST RIGHT THERE

Literally a 50% ROI is the same as a ""refund""

[scotjam]

AND THERE IS NO REFUND FOR ASSEMBLIES.  THAT'S HALF THE COST RIGHT THERE

Literally a 50% ROI is the same as a ""refund""

Depending on your assembler, there is normally a partial refund for assemblies (burnin will give >50% for example) which gets you up to 75% of your money. If you run the numbers, full refund for chips + partial refund for assemblies still gives you more coin (in most instances) than building and mining, given the surge in difficulty. I ran the numbers assuming the chips were a sunk cost, and found that at this stage, even the cost of assembly is more than my expected return (negative ROI on assembly cost alone).

And that analysis was ignoring the elephant in the room. I'm assuming you're 100% confident that bitsyncom and ragingazin628 will deliver and distribute in a timely fashion? Did you get your sample chips?

Please do let me know if I'm missing something - this certainly isn't a point of principle for me. I'm not trying to be facetious (just trying to get to the right outcome) and I don't think anyone is asking for a refund for the sake of it, so if there is a way to improve ROI by taking delivery, I think we're all ears... we just can't see one

What the fuck are you going to do with your refund?  Bitfury Oct won't make ROI.

Where the fuck do you think you can put it and have a better shot for mining?

Bitfury early Oct could make ROI. Personally, I don't plan to mine with my refund from this group buy (if I get one) - I plan to hold the coins. There's no point in mining with a negative ROI and I agree with you that there are no obviously good mining investments at the moment.

[ecliptic]

Sorry a bit on edge, coming back from 2 weeks of being too occupied to follow the market, things changed a lot.  I knew chips were late, but suddenly there's a massive influx of unanticipated hashrate, a shit ton more promised and enroute.

Trying to make sense of it all.

Even putting in 150m diff with 60% increase per month (30%/2 weeks seems to be the upper bound thus far) it still makes ROI in under 3 months.  I don't understand what calculations people are using that show negative ROI over 1-2 years