[Group Buy#1] Avalon ASICs CHIPS! Using JohnK as escrow! FINISHED!

[ecliptic]

76%/month is not possible to sustain.

the absolute MAX is 6-7 petahash/sec at the end of the year

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820

What difficulty is that.. ~1 billion at the end of 2013 diff

2 billion at the end of 2014 diff.

Hash rate will be a sigmoid curve.  it's not exponential except for a short window.  I have not found a calculator that correctly does this, all do an exponential curve.

Let me try a few things

1 Million diff / 2 million diff still exceed electricity costs.  It's extremely doubtful any ASIC will ever fall below electricity cost unless BTC/$ plummets.  the $/hash is simply too massive, especially for anyone who doesn't directly buy chips from the fab themselves.

Not possible to sustain, for HOW long? If your chips showed up assembled and hashing TODAY, you might break even and make a little money, but we're WELL past the anticipated delivery time with ZERO progress since the order date. What makes you think that the chips will deliver any time soon?

You guys are clinging to a false hope at this point. As others have pointed out and demonstrated, either way we're going to take a loss. You can either take a loss that also involved giving the assholes who screwed us a ton of money, and just bending over for them, or you can take the option of telling companies that this won't be tolerated, and work on finding another viable investment.

Honestly, anybody who chooses option A is a fool, and Yifu's bitch.

*WHAT* OTHER VIABLE INVESTMENT?

there is NOT A SINGLE ONE THAT LOOKS ANYWHERE NEAR AS GOOD AS THIS ONE FUCKING DID.  BEST CASE ROI WAS UNDER A MONTH

Obviously that was super-optimistic, but that was best case.  Expected case was supposed to be a few months for ROI.  Now it's never?

Run the numbers of anything else, your BEST CASE ROI is on the order of half a year,  what happens when THAT gets fucked over?  Do you think you won't get screwed over by another company, group, or person?

You run the numbers on a "refund", and stop doing shitty wrong calculations with never-ending hashrates being added (again, it's a fucking sigma curve not an exponential, all hardware is paid for.  Do you see people spending money on new hardware anymore?)

Something like 50,000,000$ was sent to BFL

Then 8,000,000$ was sent to Avalon chips.

The guys coming in later?  Less than that.

The money  invested is an inverse-sigmoid curve.  The hashrate is a sigmoid curve

I'm not your investment advisor, or your broker. Figure it out yourself. If you're going to myopically focus ONLY on bitcoin mining equipment as be the only "viable investment" then I'm afraid you're in for a rough ride, friend. Some people have enough sense to be able to spot other viable investments, even if they don't look identical to what YOU apparently consider to be the only definition of a viable investment.

Putting it in a low-yield savings account, or spending it on hookers and blow would be more viable investments than this is, at this point.  

You know, you can just admit "You are right, there are no BITCOIN MINING ALTERNATIVES" to <BITCOIN MINING ALTERNATIVE>

You don't get have to get butthurt and defensive and say "B-BUT EVERY OTHER INVESTMENT EVER!"


THIS JUST IN!  People who bought Tesla stock instead of BFL made more money than people who bought BFL stop the fucking presses!!!!

[bigbeninlondon]

I'm with ecliptic here.  The money I invested here was earmarked for mining.  If I have to I'll find somewhere else to park it, but like you said wrenchmonkey, I don't think anyone here asked for investment advice.

[erschiessen]

I'm with ecliptic here.  The money I invested here was earmarked for mining.  If I have to I'll find somewhere else to park it, but like you said wrenchmonkey, I don't think anyone here asked for investment advice.

A refund now could be used to net one a rather substantial increase in hashrate.

I would sooner take the refund monies and group-buy a variety of 28 nm miners.

I know that some offer hosting services.

We could let some of the more trustworthy folks in this buy be administrators, and receive a small percentage as recompense.

[wrenchmonkey]

You know, you can just admit "You are right, there are no BITCOIN MINING ALTERNATIVES" to <BITCOIN MINING ALTERNATIVE>

You don't get have to get butthurt and defensive and say "B-BUT EVERY OTHER INVESTMENT EVER!"


THIS JUST IN!  People who bought Tesla stock instead of BFL made more money than people who bought BFL stop the fucking presses!!!!

I already said, if you're myopically only capable of focusing on bitcoin mining, you're going to have a bad time. There are PLENTY of mining equipment alternatives. The fact that they might all end up sucking too isn't a good reason to ride this one to the bottom, when the writing is on the wall.

Once again, if you're unwilling to abandon a ship that's going down, because the lifeboat isn't headed directly to another cruise ship, then I feel bad for you, son. I'm guessing bitcoin mining is your first attempt at making money work for you, instead of the other way around. I see a bumpy ride in your future...

Sometimes the best "Investment" is to stop your losses by pulling out, and then reevaluate when you're not being driven by emotion and stress. The sunk cost fallacy is a powerful one though, and if you're a n00b to the money game, it's a lesson some people will just have to learn the hard way...

[erschiessen]

Yifu has opened up refunds for chips.

What are we waiting for?

[ecliptic]

You know, you can just admit "You are right, there are no BITCOIN MINING ALTERNATIVES" to <BITCOIN MINING ALTERNATIVE>

You don't get have to get butthurt and defensive and say "B-BUT EVERY OTHER INVESTMENT EVER!"


THIS JUST IN!  People who bought Tesla stock instead of BFL made more money than people who bought BFL stop the fucking presses!!!!

I already said, if you're myopically only capable of focusing on bitcoin mining, you're going to have a bad time. There are PLENTY of mining equipment alternatives. The fact that they might all end up sucking too isn't a good reason to ride this one to the bottom, when the writing is on the wall.

Once again, if you're unwilling to abandon a ship that's going down, because the lifeboat isn't headed directly to another cruise ship, then I feel bad for you, son. I'm guessing bitcoin mining is your first attempt at making money work for you, instead of the other way around. I see a bumpy ride in your future...

Sometimes the best "Investment" is to stop your losses by pulling out, and then reevaluate when you're not being driven by emotion and stress. The sunk cost fallacy is a powerful one though, and if you're a n00b to the money game, it's a lesson some people will just have to learn the hard way...

You do realize that the "refund" is a guaranteed 50% loss, right?

PCB assembly costs were higher than the chips.

break even ROI is 50%, not 100%.

--

And this is the Group buys subfourm, of the hardware subforum, of the mining subforum, of the bitcoin forum, on a website dedicated to bitcoins.  The scope of discussions here is, in theory, limited to custom hardware for mining bitcoins and directly related topics.

There are many, many investments that paid back more than any given bitcoin mining investment.  To start including these in every single discussion, comparison and thread about bitcoin mining would be absurd.  It would become "Economics and Investing : General" and quickly "Offtopic general".  

The issue at hand is that Avalon chips had by far the most margin between "Best Case Scenario" and "Cannot even break even".  Best case was absurd, on the order of 1000% ROI.

all the other alternatives?  "Best case scenario" is maybe 200% ROI or similar.  So what happens when something goes wrong for THEM?

I would argue there does not appear to be an investment in mining hardware with enough possible reward to be worth the risk -- in this regard, you're right, it probably makes sense to not buy anything and get out of the game.  But the way people calculate hashing rate projections (exponential growth that never ends, as opposed to a sigmoid function which is approaching its inflection point) is fundamentally wrong and flawed, and the fact that you already have a 50% loss for assembly costs means that your break even is lower.   Admittedly it looks very dim as it increases, but people need to run calculations for the tail end of the curve, where you WILL be beating electricity costs, but the rate it makes money will also be very low. 

All of this notwithstanding a raise or fall in $/BTC, which affects all profit on all hardware equally.

[ecliptic]

What is the current chip count for refund, and has JohnK/ragingazn made any statements about it? (i.e. 51% to refund)

For reasons unrelated to economics/ROI, and should be obvious for anyone who's been paying even remote attention to this buy, I'm starting to learn towards refund.  Counter-party risk and all that

[scotjam]

What is the current chip count for refund, and has JohnK/ragingazn made any statements about it? (i.e. 51% to refund)

For reasons unrelated to economics/ROI, and should be obvious for anyone who's been paying even remote attention to this buy, I'm starting to learn towards refund.  Counter-party risk and all that

ecliptic - I fully agree with your assessment regarding refund.

No statements from anyone; I'm waiting for a reply to my PM from JohnK, but according to his profile he was away this weekend, so will have a lot of catching up to do over the next couple of days.

[wrenchmonkey]

You know, you can just admit "You are right, there are no BITCOIN MINING ALTERNATIVES" to <BITCOIN MINING ALTERNATIVE>

You don't get have to get butthurt and defensive and say "B-BUT EVERY OTHER INVESTMENT EVER!"


THIS JUST IN!  People who bought Tesla stock instead of BFL made more money than people who bought BFL stop the fucking presses!!!!

I already said, if you're myopically only capable of focusing on bitcoin mining, you're going to have a bad time. There are PLENTY of mining equipment alternatives. The fact that they might all end up sucking too isn't a good reason to ride this one to the bottom, when the writing is on the wall.

Once again, if you're unwilling to abandon a ship that's going down, because the lifeboat isn't headed directly to another cruise ship, then I feel bad for you, son. I'm guessing bitcoin mining is your first attempt at making money work for you, instead of the other way around. I see a bumpy ride in your future...

Sometimes the best "Investment" is to stop your losses by pulling out, and then reevaluate when you're not being driven by emotion and stress. The sunk cost fallacy is a powerful one though, and if you're a n00b to the money game, it's a lesson some people will just have to learn the hard way...

You do realize that the "refund" is a guaranteed 50% loss, right?

No it's not. 100% of chip cost, and AT LEAST 50% refund for assembly costs is what you're guaranteed. If you've pre-paid for assembly, you need to get a refund of the labor side of things, and then take delivery of the parts, which you can in turn sell, or use, however you see fit. The labor was 66% of the price most assemblers charged, so you're eligible for that much, since the labor wasn't performed. The parts were $30 per 16 chips, whereas chips were roughly $11 each. Making parts cost only $1.87 per chip, in hardware costs.

The PCB will probably not be useful for much, but it is what it is. All of the components should still be in sellable condition, so you should be able to recover MOST of your costs except for the cost of the PCB...

Face it. Your losses are going to be bigger if you don't take the refund. The only reason to refuse a refund is your emotional investment (ie; sunk cost fallacy).

[bigbeninlondon]

Hey wrenchmonkey; I agree that some of the investment may be emotional, but it could be hobbyist as well, and there's value in that too.

Bitsyncom mentioned some other kinds of compensation.  It may be nice to hear what's on the table.

[Noitev]

Since this has turned into bickering, let's please do a vote. pm me your chip amount and vote for a refund or not. I'll post a google doc later with the votes.

[Noitev]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgUjqeXz2DTUdHRLZ3NkdHZBa21yeWppOWlCakszOUE&usp=sharing

PM ME TO VOTE

[Noitev]

I updated the votes from in thread votes (or tried to) please pm me if something is wrong or I didn't get your vote. thanks.

[scotjam]

I updated the votes from in thread votes (or tried to) please pm me if something is wrong or I didn't get your vote. thanks.

Noitev - this is awesome

I think ecliptic is certainly a "yes to refund" at this stage - ecliptic, please confirm

I'm a "yes to refund" - 40 chips

EDIT - PMing you this so that you're not trawling the thread any more...

[Noitev]

I updated the votes from in thread votes (or tried to) please pm me if something is wrong or I didn't get your vote. thanks.

Noitev - this is awesome

I think ecliptic is certainly a "yes to refund" at this stage - ecliptic, please confirm

I'm a "yes to refund" - 40 chips

EDIT - PMing you this so that you're not trawling the thread any more...

updated.

I'll pm the top 10 buyers who haven't answered...

[wrenchmonkey]

It should be clear where I stand already.  85 chips. Hell yes to refund.

P.S. Both of your vote results indicate "yea" votes. Freudian slip? 

[Noitev]

It should be clear where I stand already.  85 chips. Hell yes to refund.

P.S. Both of your vote results indicate "yea" votes. Freudian slip? 

no, they are just different statistics. unless I'm missing what you're saying. of course you know my vote

[mutex]

I vote for refund. I think, guys who want to wait for shipment would be better off taking refund and buying Avalon chips at a discount, better chances at ROI that way.

[wrenchmonkey]

It should be clear where I stand already.   85 chips. Hell yes to refund.

P.S. Both of your vote results indicate "yea" votes. Freudian slip?  

no, they are just different statistics. unless I'm missing what you're saying. of course you know my vote

Ahh, gotcha. I was reading that as tallying results of total votes, not tallying votes against the total order. Makes sense now. My mistake.

[bigbeninlondon]

I vote for refund. I think, guys who want to wait for shipment would be better off taking refund and buying Avalon chips at a discount, better chances at ROI that way.

If there were Avalon chips available for a discount I'd be all for it.  I just haven't seen that option aside from one or two offers from group buyers.  That's why I said earlier that it would be nice to see what compensation options Yifu mentioned might be available.