Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday April 21Prediction valid for: Monday 2014-04-20, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3097 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 496 USD
Plot legendToday's data point was fair, (S = 0.0 035 W = 0.782) and, like the previous one, totally off the trend of Apr/16--18. Whatever external causes sustained that trend must have ceased, so it is appropriate to start a new trend, the straight line defined by the last two points. Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/19, A = 3153 and B = -28.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.24 CNY/USD. It was 6.25, 6.26, 6.18, 6.21, 6.23 at the last five Slumber Times.
Checking the previous predictionPrediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-19, 23:37 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-04-20, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19 hours later)
Punished for my stubborness:
Huobi's predicted price: 2788 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3125 CNY
Error: 337 CNY (~54 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 450 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 500 USD
Error: 50 USD
NOTE:
"On two occasions I have been asked, 'Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you
put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?'"