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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26404511 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
nioc
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April 21, 2014, 12:57:43 AM

Looks like we may be headed downward soon. Huobi is slowly inching down.

Has Huobi ever inched slowly down before?
ChartBuddy
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


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April 21, 2014, 01:00:23 AM


Explanation
chessnut
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April 21, 2014, 01:14:03 AM

next 12 hours.... here it comes  Grin



significant reaction to EW analysts.
KFR
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April 21, 2014, 01:17:37 AM

Ummm ....

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/okcoin/ltccny

Edit:  Seems to have lifted off there a couple of minutes before Huobi et al.  Didn't analyse it - just an impression fwiw.

solex
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April 21, 2014, 01:20:36 AM

Looks like we may be headed downward soon. Huobi is slowly inching down.

I think you are looking at the price chart upside-down.
chessnut
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April 21, 2014, 01:21:40 AM

BTC is doing pretty well too....   Tongue
KFR
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April 21, 2014, 01:24:55 AM

Yup - I was watching a few charts and it looked like LTC at OKCoin actually started to move with purpose just before BTC at Huobi.

The order book at the former keeps threatening to run dry.  Cool
mah87
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April 21, 2014, 01:26:52 AM

...
Only a few more weeks until Dogecoin overtakes Ripple.
http://coinmarketcap.com/


yeah, talking about marketcap with crypto is quiet meaningless to me. Real question about Ripple don't you think you may be wrong about it ? I mean well known economist are part of the team now https://ripple.com/blog/welcome-susan-athey-to-ripple-labs/
and they are still hiring and working hard on the protocol.

Bad trolling appart , what do you think ?

Yes. Saw that item about Athey, and agree that the value of XRP is not massively important. I remain unconvinced about the trust model, and the utility of its gateways. It works, but does it have the potential of even NXT or Etherium, let alone Bitcoin?  I will watch longer before investing in XRP.


I think they are far beyond ethereum in term of software dev. but they are moving quietly. In terms of speculation nothing to expect before some real utility/traction but it could arrive within 6months I think and looking at the low volume + only 75k account the price could rise dramatycally eventually.
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April 21, 2014, 01:32:29 AM

I alluded to a bear trap while we we're falling from 545 and was hoping it wouldn't break the 500 resistance but it did...I still believe most of what has played out to be a bear trap...it is Easter most people have family shit to arrange the Greeks got lambs to spitfire roast...I went golfing...my friend worked a shift where he got paid 2.5x his regular hours for Friday shift...All in all manipulation works best on lower volume and at times people can't wire money as quickly to the exchanges. Not to mention 330-470 buyers could profit take all they liked..and start re buying on the local bottom if the saw fit.

This is all pure OPINION


edit: as for my 3d MACD cross the dump kept it just shy...but now I am thinking it was planned so we could have a 3d cross on Monday the 21st 20:00UTC
        It's tin foil hat commentary but it seems likely to me that there would be a bigger panic sell before and if we have a small rally or two maybe late Sunday to ensure
         a ripe Panic buy on the 3d macd cross.


well suh.. If I do say so myself suh...it would appear to be primed for a panic buy on Monday suh....

oh its 9:30am, Monday in China you say? lol
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April 21, 2014, 01:33:33 AM

I dont trade H&S, but we dont need proudhon to confirm this one  Tongue
still expecting 580+ coming days.
ShroomsKit
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April 21, 2014, 01:36:43 AM

Another China pump and dump is my guess. It will suddenly stop and go down again. This happened how many times now already?
chessnut
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April 21, 2014, 01:41:05 AM

Another China pump and dump is my guess. It will suddenly stop and go down again. This happened how many times now already?

They have very little Ammo left. One day it's going up, and it's not going to come back. Are you ever going to buy?
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April 21, 2014, 01:43:12 AM

I alluded to a bear trap while we we're falling from 545 and was hoping it wouldn't break the 500 resistance but it did...I still believe most of what has played out to be a bear trap...it is Easter most people have family shit to arrange the Greeks got lambs to spitfire roast...I went golfing...my friend worked a shift where he got paid 2.5x his regular hours for Friday shift...All in all manipulation works best on lower volume and at times people can't wire money as quickly to the exchanges. Not to mention 330-470 buyers could profit take all they liked..and start re buying on the local bottom if the saw fit.

This is all pure OPINION


edit: as for my 3d MACD cross the dump kept it just shy...but now I am thinking it was planned so we could have a 3d cross on Monday the 21st 20:00UTC
        It's tin foil hat commentary but it seems likely to me that there would be a bigger panic sell before and if we have a small rally or two maybe late Sunday to ensure
         a ripe Panic buy on the 3d macd cross.


well suh.. If I do say so myself suh...it would appear to be primed for a panic buy on Monday suh....

oh its 9:30am, Monday in China you say? lol
nice one Davy  Wink
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April 21, 2014, 01:45:58 AM

Looks like we may be headed downward soon. Huobi is slowly inching down.

I think you are looking at the price chart upside-down.


I was wrong. Time to buy and get in on this.
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April 21, 2014, 01:46:07 AM



about 20 hours ago I think.
ShroomsKit
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April 21, 2014, 01:48:31 AM

Another China pump and dump is my guess. It will suddenly stop and go down again. This happened how many times now already?

They have very little Ammo left. One day it's going up, and it's not going to come back. Are you ever going to buy?

I bought a few coins at 400 to try and trade but haven't done so. Before that the last time i bought was over a year ago. I don't plan on buying any more atm. Why?
Davyd05
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April 21, 2014, 01:50:28 AM
Last edit: April 21, 2014, 02:06:23 AM by Davyd05

Yeah the manipulators are going to manipulate in both directions...I'm still patient..I Know that like me people just wake up or re evaluate situations. Some times incentives like in my case and if I had started that miner $2500 miner in 2010' or understood speculation in 2010. Incentives like these really kick you in the pants.
chessnut
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April 21, 2014, 01:51:16 AM

Another China pump and dump is my guess. It will suddenly stop and go down again. This happened how many times now already?

They have very little Ammo left. One day it's going up, and it's not going to come back. Are you ever going to buy?

I bought a few coins at 400 to try and trade but haven't done so. Before that the last time i bought was over a year ago. I don't plan on buying any more atm. Why?

it was a rhetoric question. well done buying at 400.

.... just that if you attribute every rise to a false chinese pump, you will never have a buying opportunity. although, since you are here you are likely interested in buying. kinda a paradox.
JorgeStolfi
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April 21, 2014, 01:58:57 AM

(1) there are many ways to steal bitcoins, (2) stealing bitcoins is easier, "safer", and more effective in many ways than stealing credit cards or bank keys, and (3) bitcoin theft is still a common occurrence in bitcoin businesses, which are supposedly run by computer-savy people.
1) There are indeed.  There are many more ways to steal fiat.

There are many other ways to steal through credit cards and from bank accounts (which is the "competition" being considered).  Whether they are more or less than the ways of stealing bitcoins, in any sense, it is not clear.

2) Flat out bullshit.  Not even gonna bother.

Item (3) is concrete evidence that item (2) is not bullshit.  AFAIK, for (digital) bitcoin theft, the ROGTJ (Risk of Going To Jail) is basically 0%, and the average HMYKFWYS (How Much You Keep from What You Steal) rate is close to 100%.  And the ratio of bitcoins stolen to bitcoins used in commerce is much larger than the similar ratio for credit cards (0.3%) , even if we leave out MtGOX and a few other cases that may be actually embezzlement rather than hacking.

[Credit cards] are still less secure than Bitcoin though - because credit card details are all that's required to fully authorise a payment and they are necessarily transmitted.  Private keys can be kept confidential - credit card details can't.
Yes, I am aware that the private keys are supposed to be confidential.  But in practice they can be stolen, or used to sign transfers to the thief's wallet.  These risks must be included when comparing the safety of bitcoin vs. competition.

3) It's new.  People are getting better at it.  
OK, so can we agree that bitcoins may be one day safer than credit cards and bank deposits -- but are not quite there yet?

Security is always relative to threat model.  [ ... ] As my threat model is biased towards seizure under color of law - overtly or covertly [ ... ], I naturally regard btc as advantaged.

OK. 

However, I don't think that bitcoins will be much protection against seizure by government, either.   For that purpose, storing your money in bitcoin is like burying cash in some desert location.  If the government knows that you have the money hidden somewhere, and wants to get it, it will order you to turn it in or suffer the consequences.   If you refuse, and are lucky to have a government that mostly respect human rights, they may just send you to jail for some years.   Even in that case, most people would rather lose a few million dollars than some years of their life.  Then they might as well leave their money in the bank, and let the government help itself to it.

In some aspects, hiding money as bitcoin is worse than burying cash in the desert for this purpose, because the blockchain is public and can be used as proof in court that you have that money, and that so-and-so gave it to you.  All they need is to connect the bitcoin addresses to the people in question -- which we khew that they are quite capable of, even before Snowden.

Even without NSA-level hackery, they can just wait for you to spend some of those coins.  Indeed, it is much easier for the police to monitor thousands of blockchain addresses and TCP/IP connections 24/7 for years, than to physically stalk one guy whom they suspect of having a cash hoard hidden somewhere.

robbery during transport or transmission, and theft from storage

Considering that card transactions can be cancelled and bank accounts are insured, these risks are so small for credit card payments and bank deposits that people usually do not worry much about them.  For long-term storage, in fact, people generally put their money in some fund or savings account that pays small but guaranteed interest above inflation.  That still seems to me a lot safer and more attractive than bitcoin.

And, needless to say, one cannot consider bitcoin a safe long-term wealth storage medium until its price stabilizes and its long-term survival is reasonably assured.

As people become better educated regarding the security characteristics of btc, they will increasingly use it appropriately and losses due to silliness like flashing a private key QR code on broadcast TV will approach zero. [ ... ]  If your threat model includes exploits of your ignorance and you know that you are ignorant, it makes sense to be on high alert.  But ignorance is curable.

Well, even the smartest computer genius has his moments of academic professorship.  Wink

Credit cards are rather "stupidity tolerant" because their transactions can be cancelled.  Bitcoins seem to be much more "stupidity- sensitive".

JorgeStolfi
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April 21, 2014, 01:59:13 AM

[some weaknesses of bitcoin] (like the irrevocability of thefts and the near impossibility of identifying the thief) do not seem to have a solution even in theory.
you should at least be able to explain why such things cannot be ultimately resolved.  [...] There are trade-offs with security and while a trade-off may impact things in negative way A, they may impact things in positive way B.

Like most risks, they presumably will never be totally resolved; they will only be made less likely and/or their consequencs will be mitigated. 

The irrevocability of transactions is considered a design feature of bitcoin.  Therefore, once the thief has transferred the victim's bitcoins to an address of his own, they cannot be taken from him nor returned to the victim, unless the thief is caught and somehow convinced to undo the transfer.

The anonimity of bitcoin accounts and operations  makes it very difficult to catch the thief.  The theft can be done by malicious software in the victim's computer, without communication with the thief, in which case he cannot be tracked down at that time.  Once the theft is detected, he may not be able to spend those coins openly in some countries, but may still spend them in the "criminal" segment of the bitcoin economy.  And he may be able to "wash" themin a tumbler, or in some other way.

I know that some people are trying to track the coins stolen in MtGOX and some other cases.  Have any of those attempts succeeded?

I have yet to see how those two problems could be fixed without a fundamental change of design. 
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