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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26383016 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
seldon
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May 10, 2014, 11:35:03 PM

What's taking so long for the latest doomsday PR to come out and stop the breakout attempt?

What we need now is a new deadline.. for DOOOM (again)
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Dalmar
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May 10, 2014, 11:38:20 PM

What's taking so long for the latest doomsday PR to come out and stop the breakout attempt?

The PBOC never releases FUD on weekends.
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May 10, 2014, 11:39:02 PM

Quote from: TheBitcoinTimes
  The new world order government has declared that bitcoin is doomed. The deadline for dooming is Jun 14. All bitcoins are to be disposed of in fire under a brimstone.
JayJuanGee
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May 11, 2014, 12:00:13 AM
Last edit: May 11, 2014, 12:10:21 AM by JayJuanGee

Some of you are seriously cheering for a necro of mtgox?

Just know that you'll deserve any and all of the abuse you're going to get if that piece of shit exchange gets a second chance.



Yep, just why I don't get. Just take your 20% and let it die. Open a criminal investigation and find out what actually happened and close the case.

You are living in a dreamspark (oh wait?) if you believe that there is going to be any meaningful criminal investigation.

Didn't say it would happen, just that is clearly exactly what should be happening, even if it doesn't its still the course of action that should be being taken.

I agree with you, but I just could NOT resist making the statement.  Wink   Cheesy
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May 11, 2014, 12:00:53 AM


Explanation
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May 11, 2014, 12:20:39 AM


Interesting things are happening on bitstamp. Price managed to deny every downwards trendline I am able to draw.

Bull market, here we are again!

whats more, is those trend lines are turning into support.

If you can't see that this is a breakout, you are blind:
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May 11, 2014, 12:27:05 AM



Almost there. But this is where black swan usually appears and causes failure on high volume.
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May 11, 2014, 12:33:59 AM

A theory why the price went up these last 2-3 days, but only by a little:
The less sophisticated traders at the Chinese exchanges were losing interest because they could not compete with the high-frequency traders. Little by little they were selling their coins and cashing out.  Now that the exchanges have promised to charge fees for HFT (and stopped leveraged trading since yesterday), some of those simple traders, who were already selling their coins but had not withdrawn the money yet, decided to get back in the game to see whether their luck would improve.  So the bought back some coins, got excited when the price went up a bit, bought some more, etc..  But there weren't many such traders, and the trading did not get much easier, so the rally soon stalled.
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May 11, 2014, 12:37:38 AM

Within a few days we'll be over 520.00  New highs on the mid term horizon.

PLEASE tell why you think so before even throwing out a number like that. Just as much as "5k next year" is stupid.
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May 11, 2014, 12:38:52 AM

A theory why the price went up these last 2-3 days, but only by a little:
The less sophisticated traders at the Chinese exchanges were losing interest because they could not compete with the high-frequency traders. Little by little they were selling their coins and cashing out.  Now that the exchanges have promised to charge fees for HFT (and stopped leveraged trading since yesterday), some of those simple traders, who were already selling their coins but had not withdrawn the money yet, decided to get back in the game to see whether their luck would improve.  So the bought back some coins, got excited when the price went up a bit, bought some more, etc..  But there weren't many such traders, and the trading did not get much easier, so the rally soon stalled.
I thought the going theory was that the shorts had to close their positions before leverage was removed.
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May 11, 2014, 01:00:54 AM


Explanation
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May 11, 2014, 01:21:04 AM


Interesting things are happening on bitstamp. Price managed to deny every downwards trendline I am able to draw.

Bull market, here we are again!

whats more, is those trend lines are turning into support.

If you can't see that this is a breakout, you are blind:



I like this graph, might be true, but i would maybe be carefull with it, but path is clear, up
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May 11, 2014, 01:41:06 AM



If we were actually breaking out, I don't think we would see this type of failure-formation in the short term candles. When we are actually breaking out, it'll probably be some different formation, like a high volume vertical blast right through the trendline.

I think the yellow formation is caused by some type of dynamic about how huobi trades. I'll call it the 'Chinese slumber'
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May 11, 2014, 02:00:54 AM


Explanation
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May 11, 2014, 02:04:26 AM

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday May 11

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-05-11, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2823 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 456 USD





[ Plot legend ]

The data point for today May/10 was very good (S = 0.0018, W = 0.939) but again way off the assumed trend.  We must abandon the previous trend, and assume a new straight-line trend fitted by weighted least squares to the last three points (the second one, May/09, having nearly zero weight).  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/08, A = 2743.57, B = +26.48.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.19 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.17 today (May/10), and 6.21, 6.21, 6.16, 6.23, 6.18 on the previous good sample times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Satuday 2014-05-10, 03:24 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Satuday 2014-05-10, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

Foiled again again by the treacherous Chinese:

Huobi's predicted price: 2739 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2796 CNY
Error: 57 CNY (~9 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 441 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 453 USD
Error: 12 USD
 
NOTE: Evaluation of the Chinese Slumber Method coming soon. Prepare to laugh.
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May 11, 2014, 02:48:50 AM

I had no idea that the SEC had filed a case against Trendon Shavers back in July.

I try to track bitcoin news, but I guess I'm over my head, if that one slipped by me.

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May 11, 2014, 03:00:54 AM


Explanation
TERA
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May 11, 2014, 03:10:54 AM

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday May 11

See - wtf is that? What is that thing? You guys need to focus on this because this is your real problem here. Someone needs to call an exterminator or something.
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May 11, 2014, 03:14:23 AM

he has come for your rubber tree plant
JorgeStolfi
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May 11, 2014, 03:31:21 AM

See - wtf is that? What is that thing? You guys need to focus on this because this is your real problem here. Someone needs to call an exterminator or something.
Myrmecia gulosa (Latin for "greedy ant", sort of) is known as the "giant bull ant".  A tiny giant bull though. Well,a large tiny giant bull.  Cheesy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myrmecia_gulosa
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