Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dnaleor]

Interesting things are happening on bitstamp. Price managed to deny every downwards trendline I am able to draw.

Bull market, here we are again!

whats more, is those trend lines are turning into support.

If you can't see that this is a breakout, you are blind:

[TERA]

Almost there. But this is where black swan usually appears and causes failure on high volume.

[JorgeStolfi]

A theory why the price went up these last 2-3 days, but only by a little:
The less sophisticated traders at the Chinese exchanges were losing interest because they could not compete with the high-frequency traders. Little by little they were selling their coins and cashing out.  Now that the exchanges have promised to charge fees for HFT (and stopped leveraged trading since yesterday), some of those simple traders, who were already selling their coins but had not withdrawn the money yet, decided to get back in the game to see whether their luck would improve.  So the bought back some coins, got excited when the price went up a bit, bought some more, etc..  But there weren't many such traders, and the trading did not get much easier, so the rally soon stalled.

[alexanderrrr]

Within a few days we'll be over 520.00  New highs on the mid term horizon.

PLEASE tell why you think so before even throwing out a number like that. Just as much as "5k next year" is stupid.

[TERA]

A theory why the price went up these last 2-3 days, but only by a little:
The less sophisticated traders at the Chinese exchanges were losing interest because they could not compete with the high-frequency traders. Little by little they were selling their coins and cashing out.  Now that the exchanges have promised to charge fees for HFT (and stopped leveraged trading since yesterday), some of those simple traders, who were already selling their coins but had not withdrawn the money yet, decided to get back in the game to see whether their luck would improve.  So the bought back some coins, got excited when the price went up a bit, bought some more, etc..  But there weren't many such traders, and the trading did not get much easier, so the rally soon stalled.

I thought the going theory was that the shorts had to close their positions before leverage was removed.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cech4204a]

Interesting things are happening on bitstamp. Price managed to deny every downwards trendline I am able to draw.

Bull market, here we are again!

whats more, is those trend lines are turning into support.

If you can't see that this is a breakout, you are blind:

I like this graph, might be true, but i would maybe be carefull with it, but path is clear, up

[TERA]

If we were actually breaking out, I don't think we would see this type of failure-formation in the short term candles. When we are actually breaking out, it'll probably be some different formation, like a high volume vertical blast right through the trendline.

I think the yellow formation is caused by some type of dynamic about how huobi trades. I'll call it the 'Chinese slumber'

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday May 11

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-05-11, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2823 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 456 USD





[ Plot legend ]

The data point for today May/10 was very good (S = 0.0018, W = 0.939) but again way off the assumed trend.  We must abandon the previous trend, and assume a new straight-line trend fitted by weighted least squares to the last three points (the second one, May/09, having nearly zero weight).  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/08, A = 2743.57, B = +26.48.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.19 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.17 today (May/10), and 6.21, 6.21, 6.16, 6.23, 6.18 on the previous good sample times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Satuday 2014-05-10, 03:24 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Satuday 2014-05-10, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

Foiled again again by the treacherous Chinese:

Huobi's predicted price: 2739 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2796 CNY
Error: 57 CNY (~9 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 441 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 453 USD
Error: 12 USD
 
NOTE: Evaluation of the Chinese Slumber Method coming soon. Prepare to laugh.

[aminorex]

I had no idea that the SEC had filed a case against Trendon Shavers back in July.

I try to track bitcoin news, but I guess I'm over my head, if that one slipped by me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday May 11

See - wtf is that? What is that thing? You guys need to focus on this because this is your real problem here. Someone needs to call an exterminator or something.

[aminorex]

he has come for your rubber tree plant

[JorgeStolfi]

See - wtf is that? What is that thing? You guys need to focus on this because this is your real problem here. Someone needs to call an exterminator or something.

Myrmecia gulosa (Latin for "greedy ant", sort of) is known as the "giant bull ant".  A tiny giant bull though. Well,a large tiny giant bull. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myrmecia_gulosa

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[silverfuture]

Within a few days we'll be over 520.00  New highs on the mid term horizon.

PLEASE tell why you think so before even throwing out a number like that. Just as much as "5k next year" is stupid.

It's just my best guess. Call it intuition. It is just a stupid prediction based on pattern recognition and no where near as sophisticated as most of the TA guys here (although likely just as accurate). Don't trade based on my predictions please.

[mah87]

http://moneyandtech.com/chris-larsen-ripple/?lang=fr

[cAPSLOCK]

http://moneyandtech.com/chris-larsen-ripple/?lang=fr

Dear lord.  The BTC market is trying it's best to be interesting after long periods of yawnliness and you post a nearly half year old video about ripple?

Ripple is meaningless in this thread.  It doesn't matter here... doesn't fit in here.  And people who understand what it actually is also understand it is not even a competitor to bitcoin.  It's a currency agnostic trading system at it's core, and discussion of it doesn't really belong here.

Yet you never shut up about it.

I suppose you can do:
troll: 1
cAPS: 0

congrats.