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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21331453 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (104 posts by 20 users deleted.)
Rampion
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June 05, 2013, 01:24:25 PM
 #13301

I have to say that after the April, 10th crash I placed big bids around $30. Without much analysis, I strongly believed that the post-crash bottom was going to be around $30, which is the 2011 bubble top.

For that to happen I was expecting a 2011 situation in terms of negative news coverage, "this is a ponzi" screaming, etc.

After we rebounded at $50 with two consecutives all time highs in terms of daily volume, I changed my mind. I realized there are many differences compared to 2011. After the last bubble, people thought Bitcoin was dead. News coverage was extremely negative. There were posts on these forums saying Bitcoin was a huge ponzi, with Satoshi as its very own Maddoff.

Things are very different now. I really believe we won't go below $50 unless there are some very bad news. Thus, even if $25-$30 coins didn't seem crazy to me after April, 10th, I now believe it's only a wet dream of those willing to increase their BTC stash - regardless of what TA says.
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June 05, 2013, 01:25:32 PM
 #13302

not when it's logged. try it with numbers above and below 1.
No. Add parenthesis just to be sure. Your graph is wrong, the one at bitcoincharts is correct.
sarc
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June 05, 2013, 01:27:57 PM
 #13303

not when it's logged. try it with numbers above and below 1.
No. Add parenthesis just to be sure. Your graph is wrong, the one at bitcoincharts is correct.

why do I feel like that will be your conclusion whatever I say? What does bitcoinchart predict?

edit: just realised I misread you - Log (x+1) is what I did, log (x+1) was what I meant to do. It linearizes it like I said, which is one of the main reasons for logging charts.
oda.krell
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June 05, 2013, 01:28:26 PM
 #13304

Hey guys
Would you mind 'snipping' your posts ... no problem with chit chat - as you say, there is nothing going on, but my scroll finger is getting tired  Tongue
Glad you settled you differences  Smiley

EDIT: I see a new dispute has arisen ... have fun   Grin

Yes, sorry, completely forgot about that :/
ElectricMucus
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June 05, 2013, 01:31:27 PM
 #13305

not when it's logged. try it with numbers above and below 1.
No. Add parenthesis just to be sure. Your graph is wrong, the one at bitcoincharts is correct.

oh boy
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June 05, 2013, 01:32:59 PM
 #13306

not when it's logged. try it with numbers above and below 1.
No. Add parenthesis just to be sure. Your graph is wrong, the one at bitcoincharts is correct.

Have to agree with sarc on this one. Whether you use log n or log (n+1) for graphing, as long as you use it consistently it won't matter for the purpose this graph is used for: drawing a straight line to represent an exponential growth function. Depending on the log value you chose, that line (of best fit) will rise more or less sharply, but the actual *function* it depicts stays the same, since the line (of best fit) is based on the data plotted on the same log value.

EDIT: spelling
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June 05, 2013, 01:36:04 PM
 #13307

not when it's logged. try it with numbers above and below 1.
No. Add parenthesis just to be sure. Your graph is wrong, the one at bitcoincharts is correct.

oh boy


yeah, it's not linear. You'd have to fit a curve to that, which would predict the price would be about...ooooohhhh, say... 30ish.
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June 05, 2013, 01:47:46 PM
 #13308

To linearize things (make them 'straight' for analysis) that have points below and above 1, you add 1 to your log (i.e. log x+1).

"
No you dont!

You might have accidentally done log(x+1)
because log(x) +1 would not matter, it would only shift the entire graph up on the y axis while your log(x+1) totally distorts it.

You could produce even more funny meaningless curves by using log(x+42) or log(x+23) or whatever arbitrary constant you add to the price before logging.
"


Actually, you could, and it still wouldn't make a difference when you reverse the transformation for prediction.

By the way, best not to keep editing posts when things have moved on.
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June 05, 2013, 01:48:23 PM
 #13309

edit: just realised I misread you - Log (x+1) is what I did, log (x+1) was what I meant to do.
Why?

It linearizes it like I said, which is one of the main reasons for logging charts.

It noes not "linearize" it, it distorts it until it fits what you want to see.

Reality (this is what happened):
(a) The price increased 900% from 0.1 to 1
(b) The price increased 900% from 10 to 100

if you add your $1 to all prices to distort the chart then it would seem like it
(a) increased 10% from 1.1 to 11
(b) increased 900% from 11 to 101

So the gains during early period (a) are played down heavily while the gains at later period (b) remain as big as they were. This is neither a linear chart nor a log chart, its something completely meaningless (adding this $1 to all prices does not model any underlying concept or effect from reality, the $1 does not make any sense at all!) You applying dirty tricks to distort reality, to bend the curve until it matches your line, there is no reason to add the arbitrary amount of $1 to all prices before logging, you are manipulating other people with your made-up nonsense charts!
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June 05, 2013, 01:51:58 PM
 #13310

edit: just realised I misread you - Log (x+1) is what I did, log (x+1) was what I meant to do.
Why?

It linearizes it like I said, which is one of the main reasons for logging charts.

It noes not "linearize" it, it distorts it until it fits what you want to see.

Reality (this is what happened):
(a) The price increased 900% from 0.01 to 0.1
(b) The price increased 900% from 10 to 100

if you add your 1 to distort price movements then it would seem like it
(a) increased 10% from 1.01 to 1.10
(b) increased 900% from 11 to 101

So the gains during early period (a) are played down heavily while the gains at later period (b) remain as big as they were. This is neither a linear chart nor a log chart, its something completely meaningless (adding this $1 to all prices does not model any underlying concept or effect from reality, the $1 does not make any sense at all!) You applying dirty tricks to distort reality, to bend the curve until it matches your line, there is no reason to add the arbitrary amount of $1 to all prices before logging, you are manipulating other people with your made-up nonsense charts!

Produce a chart to show us. then sell all your bitcoins....

edit: can I take that back, I don't want to see your chart.

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June 05, 2013, 01:53:27 PM
 #13311

Produce a chart to show us. then sell all your bitcoins....
I have posted one. There are even more at bitcoincharts.com and many other places. All of them plot prices as they are and dont add arbitrary dollar amounts to the price before plotting them.
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June 05, 2013, 01:55:44 PM
 #13312

To linearize things (make them 'straight' for analysis) that have points below and above 1, you add 1 to your log (i.e. log x+1).

No you dont!

You might have accidentally done log(x+1)
because log(x) +1 would not matter, it would only shift the entire graph up on the y axis while your log(x+1) totally distorts it.

not when it's logged. try it with numbers above and below 1.

I'm afraid I'm seeing prof7bit's side of things here.
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June 05, 2013, 01:58:16 PM
 #13313

To linearize things (make them 'straight' for analysis) that have points below and above 1, you add 1 to your log (i.e. log x+1).

No you dont!

You might have accidentally done log(x+1)
because log(x) +1 would not matter, it would only shift the entire graph up on the y axis while your log(x+1) totally distorts it.

not when it's logged. try it with numbers above and below 1.

I'm afraid I'm seeing prof7bit's side of things here.

Don't take my word for it, go grab your GCSE (or whatever) maths book.
prof7bit
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June 05, 2013, 02:02:01 PM
 #13314

Don't take my word for it, go grab your GCSE (or whatever) maths book.
Yes, you should grab yourselfs a maths book and read it before you start posting nonsense plots of made up nonsense series agan. Good idea. Do it.
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June 05, 2013, 02:02:32 PM
 #13315

sarc
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June 05, 2013, 02:03:43 PM
 #13316

Don't take my word for it, go grab your GCSE (or whatever) maths book.
Yes, you should grab yourselfs a maths book and read it before you start posting nonsense plots of made up nonsense series agan. Good idea. Do it.

and then sell your bitcoins.
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June 05, 2013, 02:11:29 PM
 #13317

only that math cannot predict the bitcoin price of the future...
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June 05, 2013, 02:11:44 PM
 #13318

To linearize things (make them 'straight' for analysis) that have points below and above 1, you add 1 to your log (i.e. log x+1).

No you dont!

You might have accidentally done log(x+1)
because log(x) +1 would not matter, it would only shift the entire graph up on the y axis while your log(x+1) totally distorts it.

not when it's logged. try it with numbers above and below 1.

I'm afraid I'm seeing prof7bit's side of things here.

Don't take my word for it, go grab your GCSE (or whatever) maths book.

y=exp(x)

x=log(y)
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June 05, 2013, 02:11:51 PM
 #13319

and then sell your bitcoins.
My bitcoins are none of your business. But you are free to do whatever you want with yours.
You can even plot log(2 pi cos(price + $42)) or whatever else you want and also make sure to try different values of 42 (maybe 42 Yen or 42 EUR) until the chart looks like you want it to look and then base your trading decisions on it.
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June 05, 2013, 02:19:01 PM
 #13320

and then sell your bitcoins.
My bitcoins are none of your business. But you are free to do whatever you want with yours.
You can even plot log(2 pi cos(price + $42)) or whatever else you want and also make sure to try different values of 42 (maybe 42 Yen or 42 EUR) until the chart looks like you want it to look and then base your trading decisions on it.

god, you're such a nerd.
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