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Question: Sept. 21 Closing Price:
$0 - 3 (2.9%)
<$8,000 - 5 (4.9%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 1 (1%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 2 (1.9%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 5 (4.9%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 6 (5.8%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 22 (21.4%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 20 (19.4%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 19 (18.4%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 6 (5.8%)
>$12,000 - 8 (7.8%)
>$20,000 - 6 (5.8%)
Total Voters: 103

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21374265 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (106 posts by 21 users deleted.)
phoenix1
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June 08, 2013, 09:25:55 AM
 #14221


EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?


I keep thinking about plasters. I don't like it, but I know that sucker's gotta come off.

The longer it stays inflated, the greater the long term hurt. IMHO.

Also, why let the whales cash out at your expense?


Well, we could crash to 50 then have another long slow slide. For BTC to be an attractive large investment, the future price target must be high above the current level. If those investors aren't buying in now, nothing says they will buy in at $50. And if you're looking for increased mass adoption, a dump to $50 at s time when it is difficult for them to transfer in money, will NOT have the punters queuing up to buy.



Agreed ... no guarantee of the bounce if we crashed as there would still likely be this 'overhang'. And it would likely put many people off.
Re investors, the biggest problem IMO is not price, it is liquidity. There is no out ... thats why we are experiencing what is happening now.
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June 08, 2013, 09:33:29 AM
 #14222


EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?


I keep thinking about plasters. I don't like it, but I know that sucker's gotta come off.

The longer it stays inflated, the greater the long term hurt. IMHO.

Also, why let the whales cash out at your expense?


Well, we could crash to 50 then have another long slow slide. For BTC to be an attractive large investment, the future price target must be high above the current level. If those investors aren't buying in now, nothing says they will buy in at $50. And if you're looking for increased mass adoption, a dump to $50 at s time when it is difficult for them to transfer in money, will NOT have the punters queuing up to buy.



Agreed ... no guarantee of the bounce if we crashed as there would still likely be this 'overhang'. And it would likely put many people off.
Re investors, the biggest problem IMO is not price, it is liquidity. There is no out ... thats why we are experiencing what is happening now.

Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!

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June 08, 2013, 09:37:37 AM
Last edit: June 08, 2013, 09:49:33 AM by gizmoh
 #14223

The case for a trend reversal

Everyone is a bear now, who is left to sell?

100 is an important psychological barrier, it could be the point where the trend reverses

Whales will buy back when they give up hope of seeing double digits, once buying pressure starts to build up it will be the signal they need to buy back in which will bring in more whales

Trend of higher lows since the crash: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103 - 105?

Maybe you are not aware of the  number of coins mined: 11,259,425 v/s the 20,000 of that 105-106 wall
 
True 100 is psychological barrier , but it doesn't imply it can hold if there is not enough buyers/Fiat able to hold that price.

Whales lead the way, not the small fish,they give the signal not the way around. Remember all crashes were stopped by massive buy back which is nonexistent now. If there is no buying pressure, you'll get your signal.
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June 08, 2013, 09:39:52 AM
 #14224



Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!


I tend to agree with you that we are in the now in long slow slide phase of bubble deflation (slow in Bitcoin terms could mean anything!)

Glad you apologised for the chart ... I have put my compass away  Grin
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June 08, 2013, 09:56:18 AM
 #14225



Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!


I tend to agree with you that we are in the now in long slow slide phase of bubble deflation (slow in Bitcoin terms could mean anything!)

Glad you apologised for the chart ... I have put my compass away  Grin

I know seeing it is painful for some folk.  Cry
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June 08, 2013, 09:57:43 AM
 #14226

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.
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June 08, 2013, 10:01:16 AM
 #14227

phoenix1
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June 08, 2013, 10:05:11 AM
 #14228

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

I challenge you to do that ! People talk about Bitcoins connection to drugs (yawn) ... the real drug is the Bitcoin price

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June 08, 2013, 10:05:37 AM
 #14229

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

As I remember people saying when the price was skyrocketing but other were still denying it was a bubble:

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, ...

free yourself!
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June 08, 2013, 10:07:08 AM
 #14230

Two possible bearish targets:

(the lower pink line is a parallel to the one connecting the tops)

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June 08, 2013, 10:09:52 AM
 #14231

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

If you are interested only in BTC going up up up, it may be the smartest thing indeed.

I find funny how all the ones singing the "BTC is only useful for Silk Road" song are noobs that probably came into BTC because it was going to the freaking moon, and they wanted fiat profit. Then, the BTC bubble bursted and entered the slow deflation, so they are bitter and sound butthurt, and keep saying that the only use of BTC are drugs and speculation, and unfortunately (for them) they were late in order to tenfold their investment speculating.

Really man, all this is so 2011. Exactly the same arguments.

If you are in this for profit, zoom out and think that the price was $0.07 in 2010. And $2 in November 2011. And $10ish just 6 months ago.

If you are in this because it's more than fiat profits, think that freedom is much more important than convenience. Screw micropayments. Bitcoin is here to help you to be free.
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June 08, 2013, 10:11:16 AM
 #14232

Two possible bearish targets:

(the lower pink line is a parallel to the one connecting the tops)


FUCK ME ! And I thought I was bearish ...
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June 08, 2013, 10:11:35 AM
 #14233

This is what I think I know  :

1) The blockchain essentially a decentralised, encrypted ledger

[...]

How am I doing so far ?

Not so well.  Try again
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June 08, 2013, 10:11:43 AM
 #14234

Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!



You do realize even this chart, although used to explain the bear case, with it's extremely low assumptions (it calculates the FV of Bitcoin on $25.30) predicts a price of >$10,000 per Bitcoin in 500 days?

I'll just leave this here*

Code:
Day 500  ==> 0.5
Day 1000 ==> 1.42

500 day increase 1.42/0.5=2.84

So in the 500 days: 1.42*2.84 = 4.0328

log(10783.5) = 4.0328

So Bitcoin price in 500 days: $10782.5

* I'm not advocating this model
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June 08, 2013, 10:17:29 AM
 #14235

 
Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!



You do realize even this chart, although used to explain the bear case, with it's extremely low assumptions (it calculates the FV of Bitcoin on $25.30) predicts a price of >$10,000 per Bitcoin in 500 days?

I'll just leave this here*

Code:
Day 500  ==> 0.5
Day 1000 ==> 1.42

500 day increase 1.42/0.5=2.84

So in the 500 days: 1.42*2.84 = 4.0328

log(10783.5) = 4.0328

So Bitcoin price in 500 days: $10782.5

* I'm not advocating this model

oops, you might want to check your math

bitcoin price (logged+1) = -0.0635+0.0013791*days since the start

in 500 days = $100.2

edit : I don't advocate this model either. Roll Eyes
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June 08, 2013, 10:20:39 AM
 #14236

I just woke up so I might have made a mistake. Did I misunderstand the chart?

log(25.3+1) = 1.42 (currently for $25.3 and 1.42 scores)
log(10782.5+1) = 4.0328 (in 500 days)

My math seems to work out, so the other option is I completely misunderstood the chart  Cheesy

Note; the 4.0328 figure comes from extrapolating the growth between 500 and 1000 days linearly
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June 08, 2013, 10:22:31 AM
 #14237

I just woke up so I might have made a mistake. Did I misunderstand the chart?

log(25.3+1) = 1.42 (currently for $25.3 and 1.42 scores)
log(10782.5+1) = 4.0328 (in 500 days)

My math seems to work out, so the other option is I completely misunderstood the chart  Cheesy

wipe those bleary eyes and have a coffee. Smiley
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June 08, 2013, 10:26:15 AM
 #14238

The case for continuing downtrend:

The whales are not buying back. There is no buying pressure.

The price is hovering around 110 with low volume just like previous support at 120.

Another big dump comes in at 105 and all hell break loose.

Hello 100 and double digits..


I will welcome them with open arms  Grin

Ofcourse. What could better than Bitcoin going down! I can't think of anything.
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June 08, 2013, 10:30:37 AM
 #14239

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

As I remember people saying when the price was skyrocketing but other were still denying it was a bubble:

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, ...

free yourself!

Yes I free myself by buying bitcoins thanks. Cheesy

If it looks like FUD, smells like FUD, ...
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June 08, 2013, 10:32:26 AM
Last edit: June 08, 2013, 12:23:02 PM by phoenix1
 #14240

This is what I think I know  :

1) The blockchain essentially a decentralised, encrypted ledger

[...]

How am I doing so far ?

Not so well.  Try again

If I remove the decentralised bit does it sound better ?  Wink
Clearly the blockchain is the blockchain ... saying it was decentralised was dumb. I intended to refer to the decentralised nature of the network supporting and processing it.

EDIT: I've just been advised that it is not encrypted either ... bit of a fail there ... more homework
Thanks zebedee ...
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