Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[pjviitas]

The real weak hands are those who fantasize about some imminent 10k bubble looking at retarded exp log chart trendlines and then dump when inevitably it becomes blatantly obvious that their inflated expectations were wrong.

So are traders who try to time bubbles to sell top and buy back lower considered average strength hands? And holders strong?   Trying to figure out where I fit.

Weak hands are people like MatTheCat, fonzie, and some others who are scared to hold coins for long and when the tree starts shakin' they don't know how fast to dump their coins again. Also people like the ones Blitz referred to who buy some coins to ride the imminent bubble and when they don't see a bubble within 2 weeks they will sell their coins again disappointed. Faalhaas is a perfect example of this.

Then we get to the Veronicas who think they are a strong hand at first, but then get really scared when they see the price drop hard and eventually give in and dump their coins at the bottom or close to it. This is also a weak hand, but one pretending to be strong until tested and these people will naturally suffer the most.

Then we have the day traders who use TA and stuff to try and buy low sell high. They are also weak hands but a small percentage of them are actually good enough to make money from the market. Most of them will miss the biggest profits during the big Bitcoin bull rides though, but they're at least trying to manage their risks.

Then we get to the long term investors who are generally long on Bitcoin, but take profits out during big rallies and they also may buy more when they see dips. These I regard as strong hands with a decent sense of risk management. In terms of time investment and profitability I think this is the most efficient form of trading/investing in Bitcoin and I personally try to stick mostly to this strategy. I admit I do tend to also be a part of the last group, the true superstrong hands who are called the HODLERS of course. Being a HODLER has many advantages like no need to submit yourself to exchange risks and no need to wreck your brain and invest time into deciding when to sell and when to buy back. The disadvantage however is that you may spend a lot of time underwater or lose your entire investment one day if Bitcoin fails. But these people don't care as it's either all or nothing for them, and that's also a perfectly valid strategy if you ask me.

You can probably sum this up with "Don't play with money you can't lose"

[smiley123]

I heard that there has been a lot of crackdown on the mafia in recent years, but because of it's highly distributed nature it will likely prove impossible to stamp out completely.

Hmm tell that to the people of Naples - the mafia are still in charge there, the pile of rubbish is one of many physical manifestations easy enough to see- talking of which careful where your mozzarella comes from.

Though you may be right there has been a crackdown- the Italians are on the brink, the mafia have more money and a closer network ... than the Italian government.....  I think you are also right that is will be impossible to stamp out completely or even meaningfully for quite some time.

 
 

I totally agree.  Naples is really bad, apparently waste management is big business in Italy.  I haven't been to Italy very often so I'm not the best source of information, but there is an eye opening movie made from a book that kind of sums it up called "Gomorrah".

[empowering]

I totally agree.  Naples is really bad, apparently waste management is big business in Italy.  I haven't been to Italy very often so I'm not the best source of information, but there is an eye opening movie made from a book that kind of sums it up called "Gomorrah".

thanks will check that out.

[oda.krell]

Weak hands are people like MatTheCat, fonzie, and some others who are scared to hold coins for long and when the tree starts shakin' they don't know how fast to dump their coins again. Also people like the ones Blitz referred to who buy some coins to ride the imminent bubble and when they don't see a bubble within 2 weeks they will sell their coins again disappointed. Faalhaas is a perfect example of this.

Then we get to the Veronicas who think they are a strong hand at first, but then get really scared when they see the price drop hard and eventually give in and dump their coins at the bottom or close to it. This is also a weak hand, but one pretending to be strong until tested and these people will naturally suffer the most.

Then we have the day traders who use TA and stuff to try and buy low sell high. They are also weak hands but a small percentage of them are actually good enough to make money from the market. Most of them will miss the biggest profits during the big Bitcoin bull rides though, but they're at least trying to manage their risks.

Then we get to the long term investors who are generally long on Bitcoin, but take profits out during big rallies and they also may buy more when they see dips. These I regard as strong hands with a decent sense of risk management. In terms of time investment and profitability I think this is the most efficient form of trading/investing in Bitcoin and I personally try to stick mostly to this strategy. I admit I do tend to also be a part of the last group, the true superstrong hands who are called the HODLERS of course. Being a HODLER has many advantages like no need to submit yourself to exchange risks and no need to wreck your brain and invest time into deciding when to sell and when to buy back. The disadvantage however is that you may spend a lot of time underwater or lose your entire investment one day if Bitcoin fails. But these people don't care as it's either all or nothing for them, and that's also a perfectly valid strategy if you ask me.

Quoted, for future reference.

Pretty much the best high-level summary of our diverse little group in here I've read so far.

[JayJuanGee]

I think the blockchain.info bitcoin days destroyed chart is looking interesting. There was a spike up when the SR coin auction was announced, plenty of old coins got cashed out to raise money for bidding in the auction I guess. But as of yesterday the 7 day average has moved all the way down to a low point where it was in mid-May prior to that big rally move starting.

Of course I can't give any advice, I can only say what I think, and I have a large probability of being wrong, but I'll take this opportunity to spew out some nonsense anyways  

I think this window might be the last chance at cheap coins.

once the auction is over, I suspect that those auctioned coins are not going to be re-sold any time soon.

I also get the feeling that any entity that is participating in the auction and does not win their desired amount of coins, will add to the buying pressure (I'm sure they won't immediately buy and spike the price, but I think they should be buying dips at the very least...)

I think that many coins might have been sold in the previous and coming weeks in the interest of both keeping the price low, and also securing enough USD to place a bid.

it's a risky situation, but that's what these people (the kind of entities that would be bidding for blocks of 3K coins) do for a living.

always remember to actively monitor and consider your risk exposure.

I agree with you; however, we could get another chance at cheap coins if the US Govt were to announce another auction.. such as the 144K coins before the next bubble... though that possibility seems less likely..though NOT impossible.

[Gimmelfarb]

i think it could be quite some time before that case is dealt with, and before those coins could be auctioned. surely, the 144K will appear quite large, but hopefully by then, there will be lots of players waiting to get in off-exchange, slippage-free.

[justusranvier]

Being a HODLER has many advantages like no need to submit yourself to exchange risks and no need to wreck your brain and invest time into deciding when to sell and when to buy back. The disadvantage however is that you may spend a lot of time underwater or lose your entire investment one day if Bitcoin fails. But these people don't care as it's either all or nothing for them, and that's also a perfectly valid strategy if you ask me.

There's an implied advantage that you've hinted at here without bringing up specifically. If one does not need to devote time daytrading, then that time can be used for other things.

Regardless of whether Bitcoin succeeds or fails the entire investment is not lost, because the investment consists of Bitcoins plus whatever else was done with the time that was not used for daytrading.

[RandomPedestrianN9]

Lets just keep agreeing on infinite rise and saying how everyone is clever and good. Much adoption, such future, many volume, no bubble because we all experts.

[empowering]

Lets just keep agreeing on infinite rise and saying how everyone is clever and good. Much adoption, such future, many volume, no bubble because we all experts.

Lets just keep saying that we are all stupid and the price is going to zero, that we do not believe in bitcoin and think it will fail and that the adoption going on by more and more entities is not really happening and pretend we know fuck all.

oh and continue to frequent Bitcoin forums of course - makes a lot of sense

[oda.krell]

Being a HODLER has many advantages like no need to submit yourself to exchange risks and no need to wreck your brain and invest time into deciding when to sell and when to buy back. The disadvantage however is that you may spend a lot of time underwater or lose your entire investment one day if Bitcoin fails. But these people don't care as it's either all or nothing for them, and that's also a perfectly valid strategy if you ask me.

There's an implied advantage that you've hinted at here without bringing up specifically. If one does not need to devote time daytrading, then that time can be used for other things.

Regardless of whether Bitcoin succeeds or fails the entire investment is not lost, because the investment consists of Bitcoins plus whatever else was done with the time that was not used for daytrading.

Valid point, but there's this recurring theme on this forum that you're either a "holder", or daytrader.

There's obvious a huge spectrum in between those two sides, both in number of trades on average, and time commitment.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

i think it could be quite some time before that case is dealt with, and before those coins could be auctioned. surely, the 144K will appear quite large, but hopefully by then, there will be lots of players waiting to get in off-exchange, slippage-free.

You seem to be assuming that the 144k auction is going to take place after the next bubble.  Generally, I agree with the probability of that assumption being quite high, but in either case, the  auctioning of the 144k btc will likely have a considerable affect on the price of bitcoin... and likely cause the availability of cheap coins.  On the other hand, going through this auction of 30K BTC once, is likely going to make less uncertainty when the 144K auction comes.

[nrd525]

Bitfinex USD swap demand up to $8.5 million (at 0.19-0.2%/day), and there is another $5 million at 0.1% - 0.18% day.

[empowering]

You guys seen this ? https://www.betmoose.com/bet/silkroad-coins-will-be-sold-above-market-value

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Anyone have an ideas on why bitcoin is so polarizing?  Either you love it or you hate it, not many are in between.

Well, either it will "go to the Moon" (i.e. its price will get much higher than now, and keep rising at least 5-10% 500-1000% per year) or it will collapse to 0.  There is no viable long-term scenario between those two.  So, one's attitude towards bitcoin depends on which scenario one believes in.

fixed that for you  

I wrote "at least"  

Of course there is somewhere between the two extremes.

I think that Erik Vorhees himself said that bitcoin was an all-or-nothing thing to Bloomberg; I recall that from a video on YouTube.  The argument being, I suppose, that if the price (purchasing power, more precisely) stops increasing, or the increase slows down to less than 5-10% per year, investors will dump their bitcoin holdings to invest in more profitable items, like stock or real estate.   Then there will be massive devaluation and volatility, etc., and eventually loss of utility as a payment medium.  Since it pays no dividends and has no backing assets, an ever-increasing purchasing power is necessary to keep bitcoin attractive to long-term investors.  

[blatchcorn]

You guys seen this ? https://www.betmoose.com/bet/silkroad-coins-will-be-sold-above-market-value

I said this sell off had bear trap written all over it!

[wachtwoord]

Anyone have an ideas on why bitcoin is so polarizing?  Either you love it or you hate it, not many are in between.

Well, either it will "go to the Moon" (i.e. its price will get much higher than now, and keep rising at least 5-10% 500-1000% per year) or it will collapse to 0.  There is no viable long-term scenario between those two.  So, one's attitude towards bitcoin depends on which scenario one believes in.

fixed that for you  

I wrote "at least"  

Of course there is somewhere between the two extremes.

I think that Erik Vorhees himself said that bitcoin was an all-or-nothing thing to Bloomberg; I recall that from a video on YouTube.  The argument being, I suppose, that if the price (purchasing power, more precisely) stops increasing, or the increase slows down to less than 5-10% per year, investors will dump their bitcoin holdings to invest in more profitable items, like stock or real estate.   Then there will be massive devaluation and volatility, etc., and eventually loss of utility as a payment medium.  Since it pays no dividends and has no backing assets, an ever-increasing purchasing power is necessary to keep bitcoin attractive to long-term investors.  

It could just cater to a niche instead of the entire global payment system (yes I think it;s way more likely world wide adoption occurs).

[empowering]

You guys seen this ? https://www.betmoose.com/bet/silkroad-coins-will-be-sold-above-market-value

I said this sell off had bear trap written all over it!

Also... if you think the answer is no, you could double your BTC or triple your btc if it turns out you are correct, but then that would mean that none of the class A blocks sells over market price on the day. Hardly any volume on the bet either but still at 0.01 BTC you get 287.5% ROI! put a whole coin down and you would double it.. so for those of you certain that all the blocks will go under market- a good bet!

[JorgeStolfi]

You guys seen this ? https://www.betmoose.com/bet/silkroad-coins-will-be-sold-above-market-value

I wonder how that bet will be settled.  The USMS will not publish the outcome of the auctions, and other people (winners,  losers, and those who choose not to bid) may have strong motivation to lie about it, in any sense.