Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[CoinHamster]

early prediction:

down to $580
 

[TERA]

I dont know if anyone has noticed but Huobi now has 2 green bars on the 1W MACD and bitfinex has 3. I'm not sure if this is skewed by a shorter history or not.

[CoolStoryBro]

I don't think the people bidding on this auction are the type who want to get involved in market manipulation, or not at least for this tiny amount of money. Also I don't think the amounts involved are big enough to warrant market manipulation. It might not even be profitable let alone worth the risk of committing a crime.

Since when bitcoin market manipulation considered as crime? (and by whom? )

[tronic1704]

How should the notice also someone when everything is concentrated on that stupid auction of the FBI Coins? 

[TERA]

I don't think the people bidding on this auction are the type who want to get involved in market manipulation, or not at least for this tiny amount of money. Also I don't think the amounts involved are big enough to warrant market manipulation. It might not even be profitable let alone worth the risk of committing a crime.

Since when bitcoin market manipulation considered as crime? (and by whom? )

typically manipulation of any market is a crime. Even if it is not yet in bitcoin, these particular players probably wouldn't want to risk it. Even if it is just something that looks bad later they wouldn't want it. They have bigger things to worry about than saving $100,000 or whatever on their bitcoin purchase.

[JayJuanGee]

I read the auction's terms: you cant place multiple bids (!) and the bids are sealed.

So nobody can place ten bids hoping to get all the lots?

Multiple bids on one lot is different from one bit on each lot.  In other words, I believe that one person could bid 10 times and win all ten lots, so long as his/her bid is the highest one on each lot.  And, if that bidder only bid on one lot, then the most that bidder could win would be one lot.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

i'm thinking FBI coins about 10% above market value.  

whales can't accumulate bitcoins on the exchanges without a substantial price movement.  10% above market could be a bargain.

most bidders will put at 110%, but those who will win the auction will bid at 120% or more if they really want to win

I don't think anybody is going to pay a 20% premium on those coins. Even if you were so simple as to move that money into Bitstamp to buy your coins, you could buy 3,000 coins with slippage only going to less than $645. That's about a 7% premium IF you assumed all of the coins were bought at $645, but realistically, it would probably average out to about a 3.5% premium. You then have the added benefit of contributing to a bull market. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go for 100%, but much more than that is probably unrealistic.

You do NOT seem to be thinking this through sufficiently.  As others have posted, here, there is likely an incentive to manipulate the price of BTCs down over the next couple of weeks, yet if you already hold 10k or more BTC, then you may be more than willing to bid and/pay a premium on the BTC in order to contribute to the creation of a post auction BTC buzz.  Who knows the exact strategy(ies) of the various bidders, and possibly they are trying to figure out various strategies as well... and monitoring BTC prices leading up to the event (b/c they may adjust their strategy based on the market behavior immediately preceding the bid placements).  In this regard, there may be some questions among the bidders whether they should low ball or high ball or stagger their bids.  Yes, it seems quite conceivable that some of the bidders are going to employ a bid strategy that includes bidding on each of the ten lots, and they may be fairly neutral about whether they win the bid or NOT while resting assured that anyone who bids on such BTC and wins such BTC are going to have to bid more than they do on each of the lots.. in this regard, the BTC are easily going to go above 100% of the then market price (and likely the price will fluctuate during that day based on various bid rumors, so sophisticated bidders will likely wait until near the last hour to place their bids).

[JayJuanGee]

you don't get to see other peoples bids.

exactly why they'll offer 110%, but the winner will be the one that offers 120%

(I can't believe that I am adding to this numerology crap..... )

or 111.111%

[BTCfan1]

so if the SR coins don't touch the exchanges, they won't affect the price? or if the selling price is made public in the news, will that become new selling price?

[JayJuanGee]

okay, lets say one of you guys really wanted the coins. would you put a sealed bid at market price (hoping no one else wants to pay retail). or would you pay 10-20% more or less?

If I had a sufficient quantity of money available for BTC purchases, then I would bid on all ten lots and stagger my bids hoping to win some, if NOT all of the lots.  Potentially, I would place bids as low as 80% and as high as 135%.  I would expect that having some lots go for premium prices would cause BTC prices to rise, and even my investment at 135% would be profitable in the short run and in the long run. 

This current calculation is assuming that 6/26 BTC prices are around $590.  If BTC prices are lower than $590, then I may bid a higher percentages across the spread, and if BTC prices are higher,  then I may bid lower percentages across the spread.

[JayJuanGee]

Do please tell us Mat, what is the going market rate for bitcoins which are certified by the U.S. government to be free of legal encumbrances?

What, can't find any?

Hmm.  Perhaps they are, should we say, rare?

Where do I start?

Erm.....I acknowledge that you are not alone in this belief, but do you realise the lunacy of what you are saying?

Only on this forum, would you find a consensus that thinks there is a difference between Bitcoins seized and sold by a Government and those bought and sold on an exchange or in OTC trades. Do you think that one day we will have YouTube auctions selling 'government sanctioned' BTC at a premium over spot? Will they come with little certificates of authenticity? Will they be sold in little virtual display cases?

I usually agree with nearly anything that Aminorex writes, and I thought that MatTheCat was a troll; however, here, MatTheCat communicates reason.  Well done MTC!!!       

There seems to be little premium for legitimacy to the BTC themselves; however, there seems to be considerable legitimacy given to BTC as a whole by the mere fact that the government is going through this auction process (even though the government stole the coins from SR customers based on some bullshit assertions that SR was violating some kind of law that is probably ill conceived and ambiguous and overly broad). 

[JayJuanGee]

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I agree. Typical wall street slang. They will soon come. You will notice it also on the price.

You really think it'll be like that? Maybe later, but definitely not when they start. Expect surprises.

It can be argued all ways.

This is all Mumbo Jumbo to me, and I do NOT understand what I supposedly said.          

I thought so too, but some comments half way persuaded me it was legit. This is absurd!

Yes, and I am glad that you seem to be having some fun, Erdogan, since you seemed to have started this mumbo jumbo.   I'm NOT really sure why, but what the heck.. adding a few posts to this thread will probably NOT hurt BTC prices.         

[blatchcorn]

so if the SR coins don't touch the exchanges, they won't affect the price? or if the selling price is made public in the news, will that become new selling price?

If it does not touch the exchanges, it won't have any more influence on the price than your typical 'x company accepts bitcoin' news story.

[manfred]

so if the SR coins don't touch the exchanges, they won't affect the price? or if the selling price is made public in the news, will that become new selling price?

If it does not touch the exchanges, it won't have any more influence on the price than your typical 'x company accepts bitcoin' news story.

That kind of sale will influence the price, not touching any exchange does not matter.

[JayJuanGee]

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet [... ]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorem_ipsum

OK.. that makes sense...  Erdogan was attempting to send a message... and maybe have some fun... ... Thanks for shedding some light on this previously puzzling matter, Jorge...  

[Davyd05]

so if the SR coins don't touch the exchanges, they won't affect the price? or if the selling price is made public in the news, will that become new selling price?

If it does not touch the exchanges, it won't have any more influence on the price than your typical 'x company accepts bitcoin' news story.

That kind of sale will influence the price, not touching any exchange does not matter.

in the negative way? Perhaps the price of sale will give us a bit of a demand indicator.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Cassius]

[Stuff here]

I usually agree with nearly anything that Aminorex writes, and I thought that MatTheCat was a troll; however, here, MatTheCat communicates reason.  Well done MTC!!!       

[Some other stuff]

Yes, well done Mat, you clever sausage. Have some more condescension.