Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[yrtrnc]

Time to buy!

[JimboToronto]

How about you, Fonzie?  What is your investment into BTC as compared with other assets?  What kinds of percentages do you have?  How do you consider your  BTC holdings, as compared with other kinds of assets that you hold or control?

Fonzie's assets?

Let me guess... 1 slingshot, 3 Pokemon cards, 1 yoyo, 2 GI Joe dolls, a Betsy Wetsy action figure and an iPhone.

Maybe his mommy also bought him a Schwinn.

 

[pjviitas]

Hopefully this is the double bottom everyone has been waiting for then...to the moon!

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

If someone would want to discredit BTC, then all he has to do, is to point out this thread.
The new elite! 

[JayJuanGee]

That's quite commendable of you JayJuanGee to actually try and have a conversation with Trollzie, instead of just telling him to fuck off.

hehehehe... I know I was a bit torn about whether to respond.      

[oda.krell]

My point is that the Chinese probably have about 10x more influence over Bitcoin than this auction as they still trump the entire 'west' in volume on EACH of their exchanges.

How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.

I'm guessing enough of it is real to be significant - perhaps 20-50%. Even at just 20% it is still equal to the west, which makes it highly significant. Also, there are frequently several 500-1000BTC walls moving around the order book - those can't be faked, meaning that there are in fact players with millions of dollars (worth of btc or yuan) playing on these exchanges, which leads to belief in at least some legitimacy in the volume.

I don't like the idea of thinking of it as "fake" volume, but I do believe it needs to be heavily "discounted" for purposes of volume analysis.

Based on some (admittedly rather crude, please don't ask) method I employ, today's calculation for example would look as follows:

4400 (stamp) + 3000 (btce) + 5400 (finex) = ~13k "Western USD volume"

43000/10 (ok) + 29000/5 (huo) + 3000 (btcchn) = ~13k "Chinese volume"

i.e. today I discount OKCoin volume by a factor of 10, and Huobi by factor 5. It's coincidence that today they add up to roughly the same value, btw.

Note that I don't buy the claim by finex that they really cut *all* ties with stamp, so some of the finex volume is likely to be a duplicate of stamp volume, so total western USD volume is possibly too high. On the other hand, it doesn't include EUR (and other currencies) volume yet.

In summary, on a day like today I consider, at least by volume, the "Chinese" influence about as big as the "Western" influence.

How did you arrive at those percentages that 90% of OKcoin's volume should be discounted and 80% of Huobi's? Seems kinda arbitrary to me. Why not 50% or 30%?

It might look arbitrary, but it's well defined. Sort of.

I'll say this much: I look at a daily metric across exchanges an "normalize" volume accordingly. Like I said, I'm not 100% convinced myself it's the right way to calculate it, but I recently had a preliminary idea how to test the method, and will do so if I have the time to calculate it through and run the test. I'll make a post once that happens.

[empowering]

[adamstgBit]

its hard to resist the urge to buy

[JayJuanGee]

How about you, Fonzie?  What is your investment into BTC as compared with other assets?  What kinds of percentages do you have?  How do you consider your  BTC holdings, as compared with other kinds of assets that you hold or control?

Fonzie's assets?

Let me guess... 1 slingshot, 3 Pokemon cards, 1 yoyo, 2 GI Joe dolls, a Betsy Wetsy action figure and an iPhone.

Maybe his mommy also bought him a Schwinn.

 

Yeah,... .he he he.. the reality of the situation.    

You did forget about the blow-up doll ("friend")        OH>>>> EDIT.... That must have been your reference to "Betsy Wetsy."   

[aminorex]

so do you guys think the auction will drag down the price before the next rally?  

if it does is it a good time to buy?
 

One thing I like about bears -- they're always looking forward to an opportunity to buy.
Unlike bulls, who are mostly looking for an opportunity to sell.

[elebit]

i.e. today I discount OKCoin volume by a factor of 10, and Huobi by factor 5. It's coincidence that today they add up to roughly the same value, btw.

Those factors seem to be completely arbitrary. I think the argument can be made that some of the exchanges fake their order book to inflate their apparent volume, in order to appear more liquid than they are, but that argument could be made for btc-e and a lot of the altcoin exchanges too.

The exchanges that run without fees should be expected to get a much larger volume of all trades, since you can dump large walls and buy back $1 later. So if you've arrived at the same volume for western and eastern exchanges, I think your discount factor is too big.

I'm sure someone more mathematically inclined could at least do a preliminary analysis of the order books so find out how much is "too" random, or if many trades have a common divisor, or other obivous methods. I doubt the cheating is very sophisticated. Has someone done this?

Note that I don't buy the claim by finex that they really cut *all* ties with stamp, so some of the finex volume is likely to be a duplicate of stamp volume, so total western USD volume is possibly too high.

I believe I read some representative from Finex somewhere saying "we will begin to slowly cut our ties to Stamp, so I think you are completely right there. They still push a lot of trades onto Stamp's order book. The question is how much.

In summary, on a day like today I consider, at least by volume, the "Chinese" influence about as big as the "Western" influence.

A bit arbitrary, don't you think?

[JimboToronto]

You did forget about the blow-up doll ("friend")        OH>>>> EDIT.... That must have been your reference to "Betsy Wetsy."   

I don't think they make inflatable GI Joes.  

[aminorex]

monkey says it goes up intraday $9 more.  he called the bottom nicely but i was busy so i couldn't report it.  sorry.
on the daily chart, he sees support at 444.

[oda.krell]

i.e. today I discount OKCoin volume by a factor of 10, and Huobi by factor 5. It's coincidence that today they add up to roughly the same value, btw.

Those factors seem to be completely arbitrary. I think the argument can be made that some of the exchanges fake their order book to inflate their apparent volume, in order to appear more liquid than they are, but that argument could be made for btc-e and a lot of the altcoin exchanges too.

The exchanges that run without fees should be expected to get a much larger volume of all trades, since you can dump large walls and buy back $1 later. So if you've arrived at the same volume for western and eastern exchanges, I think your discount factor is too big.

I'm sure someone more mathematically inclined could at least do a preliminary analysis of the order books so find out how much is "too" random, or if many trades have a common divisor, or other obivous methods. I doubt the cheating is very sophisticated. Has someone done this?

Note that I don't buy the claim by finex that they really cut *all* ties with stamp, so some of the finex volume is likely to be a duplicate of stamp volume, so total western USD volume is possibly too high.

I believe I read some representative from Finex somewhere saying "we will begin to slowly cut our ties to Stamp, so I think you are completely right there. They still push a lot of trades onto Stamp's order book. The question is how much.

In summary, on a day like today I consider, at least by volume, the "Chinese" influence about as big as the "Western" influence.

A bit arbitrary, don't you think?

See my response to miz4r.

The two assumptions of my method ("there is one exchange whose volume is the gold standard", "there is a metric that allows me to normalize other exchanges' volume to that standard") are arbitrary, or at least: debatable. The numbers that follow from the two assumptions are not.

[JimboToronto]

One thing I like about bears -- they're always looking forward to an opportunity to buy.
Unlike bulls, who are mostly looking for an opportunity to sell.

With all due respects, I think you have that backwards.

Bulls see a dip as an opportunity to buy more coins to hold, while bears see a rally as an opportunity to sell and take a profit in fiat.

Most people probably consider me to be a Bitcoin bull, and I have no intention of selling in the foreseeable future. The closest I come to selling is purchasing goods and services with bitcoins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Timmmaahh]

and it will go up again...

what a silly bear trap the people fall for =D

[JimboToronto]

what a silly bear trap the people fall for

Silly bears.

[adamstgBit]

fuck it i'm buyin

[keithers]

Looks like we are going through another lull in pricing.   I hope we aren't following the trend of when we somewhat recovered after our descent from over $1,000.   Remember that, when we came back and hit around $800, only to fall more after?

I think the market as a whole is a ton stronger now, but we will see...