Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Pumpkin head I do wonder why you bother trolling a bitcoin forum about altcoins.

You come across as a very negative elitist fool with that comment about taxi drivers and clerks. Hilarious really that you can be so wide of the mark whilst trying to sound superior. Or have I missed the numerous giant silicon valley firms integrating altcoins as payment in the last six months?

The demographics of bitcoin, explain the situation that bitcoin is in. It's just as elitist, as to point out, that maybe an adult basketball team isn't very good because the average length of it's players is 160cm. I don't feel superior to anyone, I haven't met many people who aren't better then me in something. Most of the people here just aren't very good with investments. I'm sure that they're good at something else.

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[wachtwoord]

People voting <60% & >140% suck pretty hard.

Yeah, I voted 120% but 110% is just as likely.

so is 90 or 80 who knows

90 is possible, but far less likely.

What makes a <100% offer more likely then when I voted is that I learned that bidders cannot see each others bids and cannot bid twice. The FBI is retarded.

[aminorex]

I don't understand the thinking that there is rivarly between alts and bitcoin. Why does there have to be?

Money is a natural monopoly within a given market.  Barriers to liquidity define the boundaries of a market.

I hold that there is a single market for transparent global instant liquidity, and it is dominated by bitcoin.  The best predictor of the winner of the contest for monopoly, ceteris paribus, is the current leading provider of liquidity, in this case, Bitcoin.

I hold that there is a single market for dark global instant liquidity, and it is dominated by darkcoin.  Darkcoin is fatally flawed, and doomed.   The leading candidate which does not suffer from these critical flaws is Monero.

I hold that 2.0 functions are not properly implemented by a currency.  There are other, better, more honest ways to fund a blockchain.  The winners in this space will not be currencies traded on exchange, because that aspect detracts from their function, and makes it less efficient.  The winners in the race for marginal value will be 2.0 apps which integrate with the liquidity functions of bitcoin and/or monero.

So far I haven't seen anything which changes this picture.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

bidders cannot see each others bids and cannot bid twice. The FBI is retarded.

hey, FBI agent children need to go to Princeton too.  Open bidding would remove the vig.

[wachtwoord]

bidders cannot see each others bids and cannot bid twice. The FBI is retarded.

hey, FBI agent children need to go to Princeton too.  Open bidding would remove the vig.

Since when doesn't America like free markets? Oh wait, since quite a while but the rest of the world hasn't caught on on this yet (everyone still gives USA as the example of unregulated markets. Sure .....)

[Raystonn]

Regarding the poll, define "current".  Current at what time/date?

[bangersdad]

Most of the people here just aren't very good with investments. I'm sure that they're good at something else.

you do like making some sweeping assumptions dont you? is your head the size of an actual pumpkin? explains a lot..you have obviously been bullied alot as a child.

[CoinHamster]

a lot of late evening action at huobi...
seems that they try to cash out before the chinese will go to sleep???
looks like bitstamp is not affected

It is not consistent, but I believe so.  I believe that many Chinese traders tend to change their mood between 21 pm and 02 am local time, which is 15:00 to 18:00 UTC.  Probably moving to a "safer" position, which depends on what they think may happen while they sleep.  That would be more CNY if they fear a drop, more BTC if they smell a rise.

Indeed Bitstamp has been quite insensitive to the ups and down in China.  Perhaps these have been too small to activate arbitrage, or arbitrage has broken down for some reason?

this action triggered all SAR up to 4h at huobi
miners should be more careful and cash out using a larger time frame
 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Wow, Im pretty sure that anywhere in the world you go and ask a cab driver what bitcoin is, they never heard of it.

I ask about 2 cab drivers a week in New York, and have done since 2013.  I have met exactly one who admitted they had heard of bitcoin.  This is extremely bullish in the long-term, and very disappointing in the short term.  These people should be primary users of bitcoin.  Almost all of them are recent immigrants who support families in Asia or Africa via remittances.

Waiting for confirmations makes usage of Bitcoin problematic for taxi driving anyway. Not that it couldn't be done but there need to be other kinds of infrastructure in place for that to work (effectively a Bitcoin credit card or preloaded escrow)

[aminorex]

Waiting for confirmations makes usage of Bitcoin problematic for taxi driving anyway. Not that it couldn't be done but there need to be other kinds of infrastructure in place for that to work (effectively a Bitcoin credit card or preloaded escrow)

Firstly, I don't think taxi fares are a primary use case.  It is the remittances to offshore families which are the primary use case.

Secondly, I don't think that any confirmations are remotely justifiable for cab fares.  The 60 seconds of demurrage saved by an automated payment mechanism, relative to a card swipe and signature, would more than offset any fraud losses, which would be incredibly rare.  Anyone who can execute such a fraud has far better uses for their time, which are vastly more lucrative.  Actually, card chargebacks are probably several orders of magnitude worse than risks of accepting unconfirmed payments, in this case -- and compounded by merchant clearing fees.

[oda.krell]

Waiting for confirmations makes usage of Bitcoin problematic for taxi driving anyway. Not that it couldn't be done but there need to be other kinds of infrastructure in place for that to work (effectively a Bitcoin credit card or preloaded escrow)

Firstly, I don't think taxi fares are a primary use case.  It is the remittances to offshore families which are the primary use case.

Secondly, I don't think that any confirmations are remotely justifiable for cab fares.  The 60 seconds of demurrage saved by an automated payment mechanism, relative to a card swipe and signature, would more than offset any fraud losses, which would be incredibly rare.  Anyone who can execute such a fraud has far better uses for their time, which are vastly more lucrative.  Actually, card chargebacks are probably several orders of magnitude worse than risks of accepting unconfirmed payments, in this case -- and compounded by merchant clearing fees.

I think it is far from a consensus view that 0 conf transactions will become widely accepted for amounts larger than micropayments. Luckily, that's not a problem, since there are payment providers (bitpay, coinbase) that will take that risk, for a premium that minimal compared to that of traditional payment providers.

[JorgeStolfi]

bidders cannot see each others bids and cannot bid twice. The FBI is retarded.

Actually, AFAIK, who defines the method of auction is the law and/or the USMS.  The FBI just hands the coins over to the USMS, once cleared for auction; they have no authority over the auction process, and don't care about it (except for barring DPR from the auction).

You must think with their logic to understand why they are doing it that way.  It is not part of their job's mission to make money for the government.  That is the job of the IRS and other tax collectors.  Seized property is public property, and therefore the government is required to use it for the public good.  The official purpose of those auctions is to exchange public property of various odd types, originating from seizures, for a roughly equivalent amount of dollars, which are easier to employ in the public interest than rolls-royces, mansions, or bitcoins.  The main concern of the USMS auction staff is to avoid breaking the relevant laws, in particular making sure that the final buyer does not get unfair advantage over other citizens (such as he would get if he bought through a private deal, or at a small fraction of market price).

The main advantage of an open English or Dutch auction (with repeated bidding) is that the final price is probably higher than one would get with sealed bids.   But the USMS does not care much for that.  One big disadvantage is that the bidders must assemble to bid in person. (An open auction via internet would require a lot more work to set up than a sealed-bid one, and, among other things, it could create legal headaches for the USMS if some bidder were to be put at disadvantage by network problems at the USMS end.)

Sealed-bid auction (which is the norm for awarding government contracts, at least here in Brazil) is less work for everybody, safer, and as fair to all bidders as it could be.

[aminorex]

An open auction via internet would require a lot more work to set up than a sealed-bid one, and, among other things, it could create legal headaches for the USMS if some bidder were to be put at disadvantage by network problems at the USMS end.

EBay works pretty well.

[JorgeStolfi]

An open auction via internet would require a lot more work to set up than a sealed-bid one, and, among other things, it could create legal headaches for the USMS if some bidder were to be put at disadvantage by network problems at the USMS end.

EBay works pretty well.

Yes, it is obviously viable, for a company that has sufficient infrastructure and volume to do the work and absorb the risks.  I should have emphasized the "minimum work" aspect. 

[StoraGottes]

Hi, greetings from the vast newbie/lurker community.

Would anyone care to speculate or provide a link as to the ramifications of $1 billion being dropped on the market as a long-term buy/hold. I suppose this probably won't happen until Wall Street or some other regulated exchange is able to be used. Just a random, large number I picked, but I'm new to all this and am curious as to how people will react the when/if the next round of big money shows up.

Thanks for your thoughts, ideas, and pictures.

[Gingermod]

We rally now?

[FNG]

Hi, greetings from the vast newbie/lurker community.

Would anyone care to speculate or provide a link as to the ramifications of $1 billion being dropped on the market as a long-term buy/hold. I suppose this probably won't happen until Wall Street or some other regulated exchange is able to be used. Just a random, large number I picked, but I'm new to all this and am curious as to how people will react the when/if the next round of big money shows up.

Thanks for your thoughts, ideas, and pictures.

[aminorex]

An open auction via internet would require a lot more work to set up than a sealed-bid one, and, among other things, it could create legal headaches for the USMS if some bidder were to be put at disadvantage by network problems at the USMS end.

EBay works pretty well.

Yes, it is obviously viable, for a company that has sufficient infrastructure and volume to do the work and absorb the risks.  I should have emphasized the "minimum work" aspect.  

So why don't they just sell them on ebay?  All of those costs have already been paid, by someone else.