Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

You're more of a bear than my cute avatar

My bear-masked estimates are

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

For some reason, I missed this post/prediction until it was required by Richy_T.

In sum, the prediction within this post is fucking ridiculous and potentially based on some fantasy land version of the world and bitcoins place in the world.

Largely, my somewhat subtle irritation with the prediction stems from the 99% or more likelihood that Jorge knows better. NOT only is he sloppy with his description of his prediction, his predictive numbers are restarted.


In essence, Jorge's prediction is in lala land bc it seems quite unlikely, less than 30% chance, absent some catastrophic event, that bitcoin prices are going below $500 in the remainder of 2014.

Further, seems that it is more likely than not (more than 50% chance) that BTC prices will go above $750 during the remainder of 2014.

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[mmitech]

you want to know how they will regulate Bitcoin in NY state ? http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2aycxs/hi_this_is_ben_lawsky_at_nydfs_here_are_the/cizyqyz

Entities are considered dealing in virtual currencies if:
They transfer Bitcoins on behalf of one person. This includes Bitcoin tipping (/u/changetip), mixers, Blockchain.info Send Shared, CoinJoin, Dark Wallet (200.2n1)
They hold or have control over Bitcoins for their users. This includes Mining pools, Coinbase, Circle, Greenaddress.it, all exchanges. (200.2n2)
They buy or sell Bitcoins as a business activity. This includes Local Bitcoins sellers, #bitcoin-otc. FinCEN statements includes selling physical coinage (including casascius coins) also regulated. (200.2n3)
They create a virtual currency, even if it is decentralized. This includes creating altcoins. In fact, Satoshi would have commited a crime creating Bitcoin without registration. (200.2n5)
They trade any virtual currency, even for another virtual currency. This includes alt coin exchanges. Mintpal, Cryptsy, BTER, etc (200.2n4)
.. to any resident in New York. Web services, even those incorporated overseas, must either comply or block access for NY users. (200.2n)
Entities 'dealing in virtual currency' must:
Perform AML and collect identities, including verification of government issued Photo ID and proof of address, and retain these information for 10 years. (200.15a)
Retain all transaction logs for 10 years, including real name & physical addresses of ALL parties of a transaction - yes, including whoever you are sending to. (200.12a1)
Report all transactions over the USD value of $3000, and file Suspicious Activity Reports. (200.15g4)
Maintain collateral in the form of USD, including collateral for Bitcoin balances. The % as collateral is unspecified.
Retained earnings and profits of in invested in US dollars. They may not keep any profit in Bitcoin. (200.8b)
Forfeit Bitcoins that are inactive for over 5 years to the State of New York - (200.12c)
Not obfuscate any transactions - Bitcoin mixing would be illegal. (200.15f)



Interesting: now these people who creates altcoin would be committing a crime, even satoshi committed a crime following this logic. and NY wants to take your coins, so you wont be able to use your coins as a saving method ? yea so bad news for hodlers.


this is the whole document if you want to read it http://www.dfs.ny.gov/about/press2014/pr1407171-vc.pdf

[hdbuck]

you want to know how they will regulate Bitcoin in NY state ? http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2aycxs/hi_this_is_ben_lawsky_at_nydfs_here_are_the/cizyqyz

Entities are considered dealing in virtual currencies if:
They transfer Bitcoins on behalf of one person. This includes Bitcoin tipping (/u/changetip), mixers, Blockchain.info Send Shared, CoinJoin, Dark Wallet (200.2n1)
They hold or have control over Bitcoins for their users. This includes Mining pools, Coinbase, Circle, Greenaddress.it, all exchanges. (200.2n2)
They buy or sell Bitcoins as a business activity. This includes Local Bitcoins sellers, #bitcoin-otc. FinCEN statements includes selling physical coinage (including casascius coins) also regulated. (200.2n3)
They create a virtual currency, even if it is decentralized. This includes creating altcoins. In fact, Satoshi would have commited a crime creating Bitcoin without registration. (200.2n5)
They trade any virtual currency, even for another virtual currency. This includes alt coin exchanges. Mintpal, Cryptsy, BTER, etc (200.2n4)
.. to any resident in New York. Web services, even those incorporated overseas, must either comply or block access for NY users. (200.2n)
Entities 'dealing in virtual currency' must:
Perform AML and collect identities, including verification of government issued Photo ID and proof of address, and retain these information for 10 years. (200.15a)
Retain all transaction logs for 10 years, including real name & physical addresses of ALL parties of a transaction - yes, including whoever you are sending to. (200.12a1)
Report all transactions over the USD value of $3000, and file Suspicious Activity Reports. (200.15g4)
Maintain collateral in the form of USD, including collateral for Bitcoin balances. The % as collateral is unspecified.
Retained earnings and profits of in invested in US dollars. They may not keep any profit in Bitcoin. (200.8b)
Forfeit Bitcoins that are inactive for over 5 years to the State of New York - (200.12c)
Not obfuscate any transactions - Bitcoin mixing would be illegal. (200.15f)



Interesting: now these people who creates altcoin would be committing a crime, even satoshi committed a crime following this logic.

its outrageous such inability to face novelty. its not about implementing old mechanisms to somethign new. its about creating a totally different, new frame.
keep trying fools. this will end up as bad as P2P file sharing for the record/movie industry

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[An old pal]

"200-8 (b)Each Licensee shall be permitted to invest its retained earnings and profits in only the following high-
quality, investment-grade permissible investments with maturities of up to one year and denominated in United
States dollars:
(1)certificates of deposit issued by financial institutions that are regulated by a United States federal or
state regulatory agency;
(2) money market funds;
(3) state or municipal bonds;
(4) United States government securities; or
(5) United States government agency securities."

This means "no holding onto excess liquitdity (profits) in BTC". You will have to denominate all business profits in fiat, pay the man his cut for doing business in his state, and then do with your remaining fiat as you like. But the state of NY seems to say you can't just pocket the BTC like it is property (what the IRS thinks it is) and walk away to pay the taxes another day. Bad news there....

[justusranvier]

This means "no holding onto excess liquitdity (profits) in BTC". You will have to denominate all business profits in fiat, pay the man his cut for doing business in his state, and then do with your remaining fiat as you like. But the state of NY seems to say you can't just pocket the BTC like it is property (what the IRS thinks it is) and walk away to pay the taxes another day. Bad news there....

Easily bypassed, with only a slight amount of imagination required.

[jl2012]

They create a virtual currency, even if it is decentralized. This includes creating altcoins. In fact, Satoshi would have commited a crime creating Bitcoin without registration. (200.2n5)

I don't agree with this interpretation.

200.2m: Virtual Currency means any type of digital unit that is used as a medium of exchange or a form of digitally stored value or that is incorporated into payment system technology.

200.2n5: controlling, administering, or issuing a Virtual Currency.

So, by their definition, VC is the currency, not the protocol. Satoshi has published Bitcoin the protocol, but he has never "issued" Bitcoin the currency.

Mastercoin and Ripple could be in trouble, though.

 

[SirChiko]

Atleast we are back to 630 and it didn't take big volume.

And what does this tell you?

That there is low volume and yep we don't have enought buyers.

[wachtwoord]

Atleast we are back to 630 and it didn't take big volume.

And what does this tell you?

That there is low volume and yep we don't have enought buyers.

Wrong. It tells us very few people are willing to sell at these prices.

[Dragonkiller]

Atleast we are back to 630 and it didn't take big volume.

And what does this tell you?

That there is low volume and yep we don't have enought buyers.

Wrong. It tells us very few people are willing to sell at these prices.

Just one motherfucker dumping 1000s a couple of times each day.

[wachtwoord]

Atleast we are back to 630 and it didn't take big volume.

And what does this tell you?

That there is low volume and yep we don't have enought buyers.

Wrong. It tells us very few people are willing to sell at these prices.

Just one motherfucker dumping 1000s a couple of times each day.

One gentlemen wishing to divest at these levels for some reason. He is free to do so

[SirChiko]

Atleast we are back to 630 and it didn't take big volume.

And what does this tell you?

That there is low volume and yep we don't have enought buyers.

Wrong. It tells us very few people are willing to sell at these prices.

Well but we don't have big buy walls either

[Dragonkiller]

Atleast we are back to 630 and it didn't take big volume.

And what does this tell you?

That there is low volume and yep we don't have enought buyers.

Wrong. It tells us very few people are willing to sell at these prices.

Just one motherfucker dumping 1000s a couple of times each day.

One gentlemen wishing to divest at these levels for some reason. He is free to do so

That's what I meant 

[BTCfan1]

seems like the price is just begging to break out

[dgarcia]

Atleast we are back to 630 and it didn't take big volume.

And what does this tell you?

That there is low volume and yep we don't have enought buyers.

Wrong. It tells us very few people are willing to sell at these prices.

Bullish and bearish view on a sidewards movement. Magnificent.

[Erdogan]

Atleast we are back to 630 and it didn't take big volume.

And what does this tell you?

That there is low volume and yep we don't have enought buyers.

Wrong. It tells us very few people are willing to sell at these prices.

Bullish and bearish view on a sidewards movement. Magnificent.

It tells us that a specific volume is not needed to change the price, because it is the considerations of the individuals, both potensial buyers and potensial sellers that counts. So if everybody think they are more valueable, they are. Small trades needed only to show this fact to the market.

[wachtwoord]

They create a virtual currency, even if it is decentralized. This includes creating altcoins. In fact, Satoshi would have commited a crime creating Bitcoin without registration. (200.2n5)

I don't agree with this interpretation.

200.2m: Virtual Currency means any type of digital unit that is used as a medium of exchange or a form of digitally stored value or that is incorporated into payment system technology.

200.2n5: controlling, administering, or issuing a Virtual Currency.

So, by their definition, VC is the currency, not the protocol. Satoshi has published Bitcoin the protocol, but he has never "issued" Bitcoin the currency.

Mastercoin and Ripple could be in trouble, though.

 

Satoshi mined so he did "issue" Bitcoins.

[manfred]

The July 24th date is 234 days after the previous bubble, which was 234 days after the previous bubble, etc.  There is a guy on Reddit who spent months telling everyone we were going to the moon on exactly that date, not one day earlier, not one day later.

When he started getting laughed at, he made his own subreddit, and moved there.  The last that I read, he turned from superbull to superbear because his prediction was wrong which he thinks proves that the bitcoin bubble trend is dead.

I am expecting the price to jump a few percent on the 23rd or early 24th because he publicized it so much, for so long.

If he said July 24th, how come the prediction was wrong?

Because Christine Lagarde said it would be the 20th or 27th
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYmViPTndxw

Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, Boeing 777 gets shot down on the 17.7 and then you have this wicked speech from earlier of the year from Christine Lagarde, managing director of IMF
 

[Dragonkiller]

That speech is just bizarre.