Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

next week or this weekend we will be testing resistance higher up, a key level to watch/support is 640. it is imperative we POWN the 640 mark with gr8 force. make it happen poeple. I have been / will continue to buy so long as we are below 640. ( i will probably be buying higher too, i can not help it, i must buy, i am very bullish ) buy Buy BUY!

[edwardspitz]

next week or this weekend we will be testing resistance higher up, a key level to watch/support is 640. it is imperative we POWN the 640 mark with gr8 force. make it happen poeple. I have been / will continue to buy so long as we are below 640. ( i will probably be buying higher too, i can not help it, i must buy, i am very bullish ) buy Buy BUY!

I also think that $640 is key. Going past $640 and we will be halfway to the moon!

[adamstgBit]

now is the time to buy, once the resistance is overcome, we will be heading higher, and we will experience a shortage of coins as demand ramps up, buy now while the seemingly endless supply with mediocre demand lasts. pretty soon, its gonna get wild!

[JorgeStolfi]

The regulations are bad news? I have to disgree....

Well, Erik Vorhees did not like them: http://moneyandstate.com/reflections-right-privacy-response-nydfs-bitcoin-proposal/

[criptix]

buying at this time (or the last 6-7 weeks) seems to be the best time for any doubtful investor or a new adopter, although I don't see or believe any bubble will be forming soon. I see enough stability and support to trade in the 600s for some time (couple of months maybe).

some would ask why the price is stable with all these good news ? well I think Bitcoin was overpriced for a long time and the infrastructure is just catching up, once the infrastructure will have much more to offer the price will follow and the same thing will repeat, I am just thankful that with all the bad PR (Mtgox, malleability, hacks, china....)  we had this year, Bitcoin is still doing well.


the biggest scenario that everyone  seems to ignore is that Bitcoin is going mainstream, this could mean simply no more bubbles but a strait and slow growth over the years, today the audience is bigger and financially mature, so I don't believe neither expect a 10x price jump in a couple of month. (these were the old days).

I dont agree i think we will see what you describe when bitcoin marketcap will go beyond 100 billion.
Right now bitcoin has just a marketcap of a medium to big company

@adam

Are you high? 

[edwardspitz]

Quirky shit on Huobi again and stamp depth screwed up on bitcoinity. Me thinky someone screwing around with da interwebs, that kind of thing could cause bots to do crazy things. Who could screw around with data feeds though? I doubt a basement dwelling script kiddie could do it but ISP's and anyone with access to them could.

EDIT:

What's with that glitch on Huobi displayed by bitcoinwisdom? Volatility with very little volume?

Idk, 40 coins somehow went through 1200 coins worth of depth :/

I did a screenshot of it shortly after it happened. It does not make any sense, but it could have something to do with fake data or trades. I highly doubt that Bitcoinwisdom is manipulating the data 

0.099 coins ^^ Its a weird one, the last time I saw this weird stuff bitcoinity was also screwed up too. It would be nice to have some info from somewhere, maybe its just the chart sites but if its coming from the exchanges then its a bit to serious to go unexplained.

Lol at the blonds on the bus

A little recap on this from yesterday.... According to this feed: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/huobi/btc-trade-result-history/master/2014_07/2014_07_18_with_id.csv the trades really did take place.  These are the  interesting lines from the feed:

Code:

1405670753,2,0.4430,3930.2500,16867089
1405670767,2,1.9629,3930.5100,16867108
1405670835,1,0.0990,3736.6100,16867127

Format:

Code:

[timestamp, {sell=2 buy=1}, volume, price, id?]

So the first number is a timestamp and it matches the trades on the Bitconwisdom chart:
1405670753 = 2014-07-18 10:05:53
1405670767 = 2014-07-18 10:06:07
1405670835 = 2014-07-18 10:07:15

The CSV-data is from this Github account: https://github.com/huobi - I have not verified that this Github account belongs to Huobi, but it appears that way.

Unless Huobi has some kind of wierd trading features that allow this kind of orders this is very dodgy imo.

[keithers]

Seems like the resistance that we are facing is at the $630 level. Let's break it!

[hdbuck]

next week or this weekend we will be testing resistance higher up, a key level to watch/support is 640. it is imperative we POWN the 640 mark with gr8 force. make it happen poeple. I have been / will continue to buy so long as we are below 640. ( i will probably be buying higher too, i can not help it, i must buy, i am very bullish ) buy Buy BUY!

I also think that $640 is key. Going past $640 and we will be halfway to the moon!

i disagree, 666 is the key.

[JorgeStolfi]

merchants would not convert btc>fiat using public exchanges anyway.

Is that correct?  AFAIK, only some merchants (like Overstock) opt to receive bitcoins directly.  Usually, when you buy "with bitcoin" through services like BitPay, they give dollars to the merchant and sell your coins at some exchange.  Didn't BitPay say that they used Bitstamp, specifically, some time ago?  Isn't Dell using such a service?

AFAIK the price on exchanges is the reference used for off-exchange deals, too.  Large amounts may be transacted somewhat above or below that price, depending on which side is more eager to make the deal, but not very far from it.  And, conversely, off-echange deals will "spill over" to the exchanges to some extent. (If you need 10'000 BTC and find someone eager to sell 12'000 at 10% below market, why not but them all and sell the extra 2'000 on exchanges?  Even if it will cause the market price to fall 5%, you will make a nice quick profit there.  Ditto if vice-versa.)

[molecular]

next week or this weekend we will be testing resistance higher up, a key level to watch/support is 640. it is imperative we POWN the 640 mark with gr8 force. make it happen poeple. I have been / will continue to buy so long as we are below 640. ( i will probably be buying higher too, i can not help it, i must buy, i am very bullish ) buy Buy BUY!

I also think that $640 is key. Going past $640 and we will be halfway to the moon!

i disagree, 666 is the key.

685

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

(there is around 2 to 3 millions BTC out of 13million total on public exchanges).

I very much doubt it's even close to your figure. Post MtGox, probably less than a million BTC, and I think even 500k are on the exchanges.

It may be; seems hard to tell.  (I would think that day traders (should we call them "minute traders" in the case of bitcoin?) will want to keep all their speculation budget in the exchange, in spite of the risk, since they may need it without prior warning and their revenue is proportional to the amount traded.)

A more important number is how much bitcoin is held by speculators who operate on the scale of days or weeks, rather than minutes.  Those traders probably keep their coins and money off-exchange, but will move them in if the price changes significantly.  Thus the walls at 800$ or 400$ may be a lot taller than what shows in the order books.

[Tzupy]

...............................
Unless Huobi has some kind of wierd trading features that allow this kind of orders this is very dodgy imo.

Maybe Huobi is trying to implement a Chinese version of Willy the bot? 

[JorgeStolfi]

Unless Huobi has some kind of wierd trading features that allow this kind of orders this is very dodgy imo.

Well, those COULD be trades injected by hand to correct recent mistakes -- not necessarily software bugs, but things like fees charged to the wrong account, trades that were mangled by the API going offline, whatever.  For example, say that the management reviewed a client's complaint and agreed that he SHOULD have had his 1.9629 BTC bought or sold at 3930.51 CNY on July 6.  So they entered that trade by hand now, jumping over the order book, since it would be the cleanest way to satisfy the client without breaking all their other accounting and auditing software.

(Did I tell you this story of a friend of mine? Back in the 1960s or 1970s, when people here paid their utility bills at the bank, his parents got an astronomical water bill due to a faulty water meter.  The water company readily admitted the mistake, but gave them an astronomical cashiers's check that they could use only to pay that astronomical bill at the bank --- because "the computer system did not allow fixing the error in any other way".)

[techman]

When will be 700$ ? before new year? What do you think?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Erdogan]

When will be 700$ ? before new year? What do you think?

In stead of asking, form your own opinion, say it here with the reasoning behind it.

Here is an example: Based on the number of people just asking what the price will be and when, knowing that there are different opinions and at best they will get all possible answers, I can say that the prospected rise of bitcoin due to the network effect is severely hyped up, and will lead to not a steady rise but bubbles, burns, crashes, euphoria, suffering, despair. When? At all times.

[edwardspitz]

Unless Huobi has some kind of wierd trading features that allow this kind of orders this is very dodgy imo.

Well, those COULD be trades injected by hand to correct recent mistakes -- not necessarily software bugs, but things like fees charged to the wrong account, trades that were mangled by the API going offline, whatever.  For example, say that the management reviewed a client's complaint and agreed that he SHOULD have had his 1.9629 BTC bought or sold at 3930.51 CNY on July 6.  So they entered that trade by hand now, jumping over the order book, since it would be the cleanest way to satisfy the client without breaking all their other accounting and auditing software.

(Did I tell you this story of a friend of mine? Back in the 1960s or 1970s, when people here paid their utility bills at the bank, his parents got an astronomical water bill due to a faulty water meter.  The water company readily admitted the mistake, but gave them an astronomical cashiers's check that they could use only to pay that astronomical bill at the bank --- because "the computer system did not allow fixing the error in any other way".)

Good point and funny story   This day and age you would think they could come up with a more clever solution. Especially since it raises questions about their platform and f*cks with the charts  

I'm have been doing a little digging in the trade data from Huobi. There were 69.300 trades yesterday. It turns out that roughly half the trades where 0.01 BTC or below. 69.5% of all trades were below 0.1 BTC! Trades with small volume like this must come from bots... so lots of bot activity which is no surprise.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Good point and funny story   This day and age you would think they could come up with a more clever solution.

Well, for example, if they fixed the account balances without entering the fix as a trade, any auditing program that tried to validade the balances against the trade log would have to read a separate file of hand fixes and merge them with the trades. 

In accounting it is standard practice to correct past mistakes on an active ledger by entering a new transaction at the date of the fix, rather than going back and trying to modify the wrong entries.  The latter could cause unbounded trouble and waste of time if anyone got a copy of that ledger, or copied any data from it (such as day totals), before it was modified.

I'm have been doing a little digging in the trade data from Huobi. There were 69.300 trades yesterday. It turns out that roughly half the trades where 0.01 BTC or below. 69.5% of all trades were below 0.1 BTC! Trades with small volume like this must come from bots... so lots of bot activity which is no surprise.

indeed.  And the order book activity is even worse.  I have noticed that, immediately after a "real" sale that lowers the bottom of the spread, some robot immediately sprays a bunch of tiny orders into that gap, most of them spaced 0.01 CNY apart; and soon afterwards it sucks up half of those orders and posts a few more above them.  Ditto after a "real" buy, at the other end of the spread.

At MtGOX, sometimes one could see a robot (not "Willy") making a tiny trade every minute or less, alternating between the two ends of spread.  At OKCoin instead there used to be lots of tiny trades at random prices within the actual spread.