Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

You seem to think it is somehow not 'hard science' to study dynamic nonlinear systems, and that no good can come of such study. [ ... ]You answer does not address whether it is possible that there might exist a hard science of economics, as opposed to a mere philosophy, which was the original point.  Characterizing economics as a dynamic nonlinear system (which it certainly is), does not invalidate it as a subject of hard science.

The problem is not that the economy is non-linear, the problem is that the system is too big and complex, and it has so many unpredictable external inputs, that we cannot build a useful scientifically sound model for it.  To have any hope of being predictive, the model would have to include corporations and consumers of all size, governments, religions, the media, greedy dishonest bankers, etc. etc.  One cannot predict predict its behavior with a few simple equations of three or four variables whose values have to be guessed.  That is not science, it is pseudo-science.

It depends on what you are trying to predict and to what degree you are comfortable with simplifying the model. You don't need to model every fiber in the CO2 scrubber to send a rocket to the moon.

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[NotLambchop]

You seem to think it is somehow not 'hard science' to study dynamic nonlinear systems, and that no good can come of such study. [ ... ]You answer does not address whether it is possible that there might exist a hard science of economics, as opposed to a mere philosophy, which was the original point.  Characterizing economics as a dynamic nonlinear system (which it certainly is), does not invalidate it as a subject of hard science.

The problem is not that the economy is non-linear, the problem is that the system is too big and complex, and it has so many unpredictable external inputs, that we cannot build a useful scientifically sound model for it.  To have any hope of being predictive, the model would have to include corporations and consumers of all size, governments, religions, the media, greedy dishonest bankers, etc. etc.  One cannot predict predict its behavior with a few simple equations of three or four variables whose values have to be guessed.  That is not science, it is pseudo-science.

Science isn't about making models that perfectly replicate the systems they model (that would be duplicating a system).
It's about making models that work within relevant constraints, with sufficient descriptive and prescriptive power.  For instance, if I want to predict where a billiard ball goes, I can use Newtonian physics, without worrying about the quantum states of each particle that composes it.  I'm concerned with the macro system--getting a ball into the pocket, and the Newtonian model does the trick.
Or worry about modeling the interactions of gazillions of water molecules that flow past the blades of a hydro turbine to make the thing work.
Would you call that pseudo-science?  Am I missing your point?

[adamstgBit]

in other news

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/12/us-usa-bitcoin-cftc-idUSKBN0H71FU20140912?feedType=RSS&feedName=technologyNews

this is pretty big news

and points to extreme price stability if you ask me.

Well, as long as it is a 45 degree slope pointing to the moon it's okay.

ya that might take a while

i'd settle for 1/2 degree slope pointing to the moon

baby steps.

[Chuckee]

I thought Wall Street was back from their beach vacations now. Everyone told me the price would rocket after they came home.

Did they extend their vacations? What gives?

[findftp]

which maybe it would be a good idea for you to refrain from such controversial topics in the event that you are NOT capable of adequately describing your thoughts. 

I quit reading after this sentence. Too many words.
You seem to enjoy showing your english superiority.
Congratulations, shall we continue in the dutch sub forum?
I really don't understand why you put so much effort into me.
Do you want a kiss?

[adamstgBit]

I thought Wall Street was back from their beach vacations now. Everyone told me the price would rocket after they came home.

Did they extend their vacations? What gives?

they're not stupid

they wait for everyone to sell.

which is what i should have done... oh well.

[JorgeStolfi]

You are describing dynamic nonlinear (chaotic) systems:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamical_system#Nonlinear_dynamical_systems_and_chaos

No, the economy is not just a "chaotic system".  That is a system with a very few parameters and simple deterministic rule that nonetheless has a very complicated and practically unpredictable behavior.  Even so, one can study such systems mathematically and prove rigorously statements about them (I even have a paper on them.)

The economy is MUCH worse, one cannot even start describing it mathematically.

(In case it is not obvious, I have an extremely low opinion of economists.  I don't think that it was a coincidence that the president of Brazil who was absolutely best for the economy was a mechanics worker without college education.  Dilma unfortunately has a degree in Economics, and picked an Economists as her chief of staff; even though she is politically committed to keep the country going in the right direction, she is visibly hampered by that handicap.)

 

[JayJuanGee]

Who are you to decide what I should or shouldn't be showing?

Of course, this is an English language thread, and therefore you should expect to exchange ideas in English - if you are participating in such a thread.

Like I already said in my earlier post, I was merely responding to some ideas that you already expressed in your earlier post, which seemed to be a blanket suggestion to get rid of government, which maybe it would be a good idea for you to refrain from such controversial topics in the event that you are NOT capable of adequately describing your thoughts. 


I do NOT consider describing thoughts as an intellectual conversation, but instead just basic communications.   On the other hand, since you seem to NOT like to be told or advised what to do, then you can do whatever the fuck you want in regards to whether you attempt to engage yourself in potentially controversial topics.

I doubt that your ideas would be better in dutch than they are in English... surely, you would be able to express yourself more eloquently, but that does NOT take away the fact that your earlier statement was way too broad and made a claim without any attempt at supporting such claim.. which seems to be more of a lack of logic rather than a lack of English language skills.  

In any event, I will just accept that you did NOT really mean what you said in your earlier post, and you and I need NOT further pursue this topic... at least, NOT for now.

BTC to the Moon... CCMF!!!

What is your point, exactly? None at all.
I think I'm starting to get you. For the last month I through you were a passive-aggressive asshole. Only now I realize my mistake! You are the grand diva of drama-queen country. All hail to the grand diva! Let her reign be long and prosperous, lets celebrate her glorious daily menstruation.

You seem to be attempting to be quite the shit-stirrer, here... by seeming to come to FindFTP's rescue through your diversionary tactics and also seeming to engage in a form of gratuitous name calling... Congratulations.....     

OK... I will bite.... .. in order to better understand the contents of my above post, you may need to look through the earlier posts (there are more than 5 earlier posts) within this thread that relate to that post.. and you could accomplish such attempt at better understand the post by just clicking on the links within the post, if you were so inclined to understand the context of the post.

I would NOT claim that my above post is in any way self-contained b/c it refers to an evolving subject, but it would likely make more sense to you and to others by reading the earlier posts that were connected with it.  You still may NOT agree with whatever I am saying but at least the contents of the earlier posts are referenced in my earlier posts.

[hdbuck]

READ EVERY POSTS BEFORE TALKING TO JAYJUANGEE

^^

[JayJuanGee]

which maybe it would be a good idea for you to refrain from such controversial topics in the event that you are NOT capable of adequately describing your thoughts. 

I quit reading after this sentence. Too many words.
You seem to enjoy showing your english superiority.
Congratulations, shall we continue in the dutch sub forum?
I really don't understand why you put so much effort into me.
Do you want a kiss?

Sounds like you are feeling sorry for yourself, and there is NO need to devolve into personal attacks - merely because you are having troubles understanding the concepts contained within the sentences or the words used.  Good luck with working on your English.   

[findftp]

READ EVERY POSTS BEFORE TALKING TO JAYJUANGEE

^^

Damn it, he made 3055 posts!

[JayJuanGee]

READ EVERY POSTS BEFORE TALKING TO JAYJUANGEE

^^

Hi HdBuck...

Nice to talk with you again.  

You must have once again taken me off of ignore, unless I am winning you over and you are warming up to my ways a little bit???  

[criptix]

economics will become hard science when mankind will be able to simulate the human brain 1:1

the fh jülich has the most powerful supercomputer in europe and has the goal to build a simulation of the human brain until 2016/17 i think

[boumalo]

I thought Wall Street was back from their beach vacations now. Everyone told me the price would rocket after they came home.

Did they extend their vacations? What gives?

they're not stupid

they wait for everyone to sell.

which is what i should have done... oh well.

The price was 100$ a year ago and 10$ two years ago so chill!

[JayJuanGee]

READ EVERY POSTS BEFORE TALKING TO JAYJUANGEE

^^

Damn it, he made 3055 posts!

I'm trying to catch up with Adam.   

[findftp]

which maybe it would be a good idea for you to refrain from such controversial topics in the event that you are NOT capable of adequately describing your thoughts. 

I quit reading after this sentence. Too many words.
You seem to enjoy showing your english superiority.
Congratulations, shall we continue in the dutch sub forum?
I really don't understand why you put so much effort into me.
Do you want a kiss?

Sounds like you are feeling sorry for yourself, and there is NO need to devolve into personal attacks - merely because you are having troubles understanding the concepts contained within the sentences or the words used.  Good luck with working on your English.   

Here you are, you really need some love.

[JayJuanGee]

which maybe it would be a good idea for you to refrain from such controversial topics in the event that you are NOT capable of adequately describing your thoughts. 

I quit reading after this sentence. Too many words.
You seem to enjoy showing your english superiority.
Congratulations, shall we continue in the dutch sub forum?
I really don't understand why you put so much effort into me.
Do you want a kiss?

Sounds like you are feeling sorry for yourself, and there is NO need to devolve into personal attacks - merely because you are having troubles understanding the concepts contained within the sentences or the words used.  Good luck with working on your English.   

Here you are, you really need some love.

The mods may NOT like us to go down this road, so probably we would need to pursue such lines of conversation via PM, if we were to expand upon this.          

[xyzzy099]

You are describing dynamic nonlinear (chaotic) systems:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamical_system#Nonlinear_dynamical_systems_and_chaos

No, the economy is not just a "chaotic system".  That is a system with a very few parameters and simple deterministic rule that nonetheless has a very complicated and practically unpredictable behavior.  Even so, one can study such systems mathematically and prove rigorously statements about them (I even have a paper on them.)

The economy is MUCH worse, one cannot even start describing it mathematically.

(In case it is not obvious, I have an extremely low opinion of economists.  I don't think that it was a coincidence that the president of Brazil who was absolutely best for the economy was a mechanics worker without college education.  Dilma unfortunately has a degree in Economics, and picked an Economists as her chief of staff; even though she is politically committed to keep the country going in the right direction, she is visibly hampered by that handicap.)

 

It looks to me like you are redefining the definition of all chaotic systems as the definiton of the simplest such system - but, the definition of chaotic systems, again, is not why I originally responded to you.

Your contention that a system that is complex is a priori utterly resistant to scientific method seems absolutely silly

Honestly, NotLambChop made my point in a post above better than I was making it.

FWIW, I share your disdain for "economists" in general, as I perceive most of them to be philosophers or politicians, rather than scientists.  I would not, however, paint them all with that brush.

[molecular]

am I seeing correctly a 3,500 BTC ask wall on bitfinex?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation