Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Schickeria]

Where did you found this chart buddy?
I'm new..
I bought 50btc today.

Buy the whole book on kraken! It's not that large!  

[1714658601]

1714658601

[1714658601]

1714658601

[adamstgBit]

Resuming our conversation about one does not simple buy the whole book.

What The Fuck O_o

[adamstgBit]

nice little 150BTC wall on the front lines of bitfinex.

[adamstgBit]

holy moly shorts are DOWN nearly 50%

i guess the wall coming down was shorts covering.

[solex]

holy moly shorts are DOWN nearly 50%

i guess the wall coming down was shorts covering.

For the first time in a while on Stamp, the ask sum is less than the bid sum at +/-$30 from the touch.  Sentiment is changing!

[JorgeStolfi]

This exactly is the problem, dumping earns a lot of people a lot of money. Start with 1000 BTC, dump them @ $480. When panic sell starts (and it always start) buy back at $465.

Is this sort of pure buy/sell manipulation actually profitable?  Does it actually occur, in bitcoin or any other market? I would think that such manoeurvers are effective only if combined with suitable advertising or rumors.   

I would guess that, in a pure "dump & slurp" manoeuver (as described above) there is a hight probability that the asks will not drop far enough after the dump, so that the average price paid by the trader on the "slurp" phase will be higher than the average price he got in the "dump" phase.  Also, during the "slurp" he will be competing with other traders, who will eat away some of his expected gains.

The same question, mutatis mutandis, applies to the reverse "pump & dump"  manoeuver.

[Eindbaas69]

holy moly shorts are DOWN nearly 50%

i guess the wall coming down was shorts covering.

Is this good r bad ? lolz

[adamstgBit]

holy moly shorts are DOWN nearly 50%

i guess the wall coming down was shorts covering.

Is this good r bad ? lolz

meaningless data.

[itod]

This exactly is the problem, dumping earns a lot of people a lot of money. Start with 1000 BTC, dump them @ $480. When panic sell starts (and it always start) buy back at $465.

Is this sort of pure buy/sell manipulation actually profitable?  Does it actually occur, in bitcoin or any other market? I would think that such manoeurvers are effective only if combined with suitable advertising or rumors.  

I would guess that, in a pure "dump & slurp" manoeuver (as described above) there is a hight probability that the asks will not drop far enough after the dump, so that the average price paid by the trader on the "slurp" phase will be higher than the average price he got in the "dump" phase.  Also, during the "slurp" he will be competing with other traders, who will eat away some of his expected gains.

It's not the game of probabilities, the dumpers don't throw dice, they use technical analysis. Of course they will sometimes miss the right selling/buying points, but by actually studying the market you can get that miss percentage far below 50%, i think it's actually closer to 70%:30% in favor of profitable dump/by back cycles. The main danger is not that percentage of successful trades falls under 50%, it's sudden big jump of price while they are exposed in fiat. To maneuver they use "stop loss" bots which quickly buy back into BTC in rare cases they got caught in price spike. Eventual one time loss is already covered by numerous previous successful cycles.

[grappa_barricata]

holy moly shorts are DOWN nearly 50%

i guess the wall coming down was shorts covering.

Ya must be that. The time coincide, the amount too.

[adamstgBit]

holy moly shorts are DOWN nearly 50%

i guess the wall coming down was shorts covering.

Ya must be that, the time coincide.

i guess that means we won't get to see 10K in shorts squeezed into forced liquidation buying up the hole order book and beyond, but, given the rough patch we have been experiencing, it makes sense shorts wouldn't have a very hard time covering.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[grappa_barricata]

holy moly shorts are DOWN nearly 50%

i guess the wall coming down was shorts covering.

Ya must be that, the time coincide.

i guess that means we won't get to see 10K in shorts squeezed into forced liquidation buying up the hole order book and beyond, but, given the rough patch we have been experiencing, it makes sense shorts wouldn't have a very hard time covering.

Indeed, those shorts may have been useful as fuel. Too bad.
Even if it there is a positive black swan about to happen, i'm starting to think that we are headed down in the immediate term. Gut-feeling.

[adamstgBit]

holy moly shorts are DOWN nearly 50%

i guess the wall coming down was shorts covering.

Ya must be that, the time coincide.

i guess that means we won't get to see 10K in shorts squeezed into forced liquidation buying up the hole order book and beyond, but, given the rough patch we have been experiencing, it makes sense shorts wouldn't have a very hard time covering.

Indeed, those shorts may have been useful as fuel. Too bad.
Even if it there is a positive black swan about to happen, i'm starting to think that we are headed down in the immediate term. Gut-feeling.

no way.

why do you think this?

ETF is days away now, i can feeeel it.

i think the ETF could easily grow into the biggest market bitcoin has ever seen in a matter of days.

[grappa_barricata]

holy moly shorts are DOWN nearly 50%

i guess the wall coming down was shorts covering.

Ya must be that, the time coincide.

i guess that means we won't get to see 10K in shorts squeezed into forced liquidation buying up the hole order book and beyond, but, given the rough patch we have been experiencing, it makes sense shorts wouldn't have a very hard time covering.

Indeed, those shorts may have been useful as fuel. Too bad.
Even if it there is a positive black swan about to happen, i'm starting to think that we are headed down in the immediate term. Gut-feeling.

no way.

why do you think this?

ETF is days away now, i can feeeel it.

Because i through that those walls were brought by the same individual that placed them (a form of 'manipulation'), but if those shorts have been closed this mean that buyer and seller where different individuals.
Now, if you had the power to place a 3k+ sell wall (and at 475$ !!!), and place it, then you know that price is gonna be lower in a little while.
Knowing in this sentence being equivalent to 'make it happen yourself'. (eg: an insider is equivalent to a 'manipulator', in the academic sense trading is information).
I hope it is clear, i'm kind of high  

I agree about ETF.

[Newbie1022]

holy moly shorts are DOWN nearly 50%

i guess the wall coming down was shorts covering.

Is this good r bad ? lolz

If the guys behind the shorts are trading straight up on their expectation for the market then this would be a reflection that the price would not go any lower or at least much lower. The evidence in justification of this is that we are no longer seeing panic selling whenever there is a dump. The countervailing evidence to this is the fact that they are "manipulators" so we wouldn't expect them to trade straight up and although there isn't panic with a dump there also isn't exuberance with a pump (there is almost no volume outside of the whales, period).

The alternative is that they are just letting the price drip upwards into the high 480s/low 490s and then they are going to drop the elbows again, bring the price down to about 460 and then close out their shorts that have an average value of about $480 at a bid with an average price of $465 to $470. Even without the panic by traders, it's pretty obvious that such a strategy would be profitable in the short-term.

That said, how long are the big boys like Draper going to allow this s--- to go on before they intervene and trade within the market rather than off the market to pump the price and preserve the brand. You don't need regulation if you have opposing manipulators because it works out in the wash, but lately we've only had one side of the equation and, looking at the volume after the pumps, it's done considerable damage to general sentiment and risk appetites.


This is me not being hyperbolic or ornery. Wait a few days... I'll be irritating again in no time.

[adamstgBit]

holy moly shorts are DOWN nearly 50%

i guess the wall coming down was shorts covering.

Ya must be that, the time coincide.

i guess that means we won't get to see 10K in shorts squeezed into forced liquidation buying up the hole order book and beyond, but, given the rough patch we have been experiencing, it makes sense shorts wouldn't have a very hard time covering.

Indeed, those shorts may have been useful as fuel. Too bad.
Even if it there is a positive black swan about to happen, i'm starting to think that we are headed down in the immediate term. Gut-feeling.

no way.

why do you think this?

ETF is days away now, i can feeeel it.

Because i through that those walls were brought by the same individual that placed them (a form of 'manipulation'), but if those shorts have been closed this mean that buyer and seller where different individuals.
Now, if you had the power to place a 3k+ sell wall (and at 475$ !!!), and place it, then you know that price is gonna be lower in a little while.
Knowing in this sentence being equivalent to 'make it happen yourself'. (eg: an insider is equivalent to a 'manipulator', in the academic sense trading is information).
I hope it is clear, i'm kind of high  

I agree about ETF.

I hear ya.
but!
say the shorts that covered was the manipulator ( same manipulator that has been driving down prices, trying to force capitulation ) he just changed teams... and he's a hell of a player.
put that in your pipe and smoke it!

[grappa_barricata]

I hear ya.
but!
say the shorts that covered was the manipulator ( same manipulator that has been driving down prices, trying to force capitulation ) he just changed teams... and he's a hell of a player.
put that in your pipe and smoke it!

LOL
That too is possible. In my opinion is less likely because these kind of godzilla traders usually don't use margin. I can imagine they even manipulate the money-market (the swaps...). For example, remember how USD swap rates increased at the end of may? Sure people were going long, but the rate was sustained by big fat multi-million dollar swap bids... from august on instead the situation is the exact contrary, including big fat USD swap asks. Oh god, this is so fucking complex. aaaaah

EDIT: Watch this, it is fun

[Schickeria]

I hear ya.
but!
say the shorts that covered was the manipulator ( same manipulator that has been driving down prices, trying to force capitulation ) he just changed teams... and he's a hell of a player.
put that in your pipe and smoke it!

For me it's totally uninteresting if there's acually some strange kind of bear raid ongoing, but people with that amount of wealth trading are normally not that dumb. Smart players know that they have to hide their shorts from the market, so if any question is valid you should better ask why someone is shorting so obviously? Is he trying to direct the market into a trap to the opposite position?

But I will not deepen such thinking cause ultimately we will get no answer. I stay with what I see: An overall very bearish picture. I admit that this could change quickly but at least for first small bullish signs that could occur we have to wait for the end of this consolidation what once again makes a rather bearish impression.

[adamstgBit]

gr8, now we can wank and bitcoin at the same fucking time!