Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[samsonn25]

so does anybody know what may be causing this price decline?

The price decline.

yes.


People are not buying because they fear the price will fall even more, and cause of this prices keep falling or don't rise. It is a vicious circle hard to break

Is the purpose of bitcoin to buy and hope price goes up to make profit or as the founder envisioned it as a new currency and value medium to be able to exchange products and services.

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[Omikifuse]

Bitfinix touching 300 again. okcoin & lakebtc already back over 300.

beartrapped... i hope only few bear was trapped

bitfinix now 305. They got tired of waiting for bitstamp.

Chinese are sleeping atm.

Wait until they wake up and panic sell everything

[vuduchyld]

You guys don't know when to spot a capitulation, do you?

I hope this is it, but I'm not putting my life savings on the line for it or anything.  Almost seems like this was too short for a real capitulation.  Still too many confident people (like me!)

[Erdogan]

The mind of an average bitcoiner is intriguing.
If someone buys a lot, then that someone is obviously bullish to acquire those coins.
If someone sells a lot, then that someone is also obviously bullish, trying to manipulate others to sell, so he could buy more.
There isn't a possibility in the universe that someone just doesn't believe in the long-term success of bitcoin. It can't be so! It can't!

So much similarities with religious folks.
Anyway, this drop is far from over. So, enjoy and remember that it's only money.

The majority does not believe. That is the point. The minority knows that bitcoin have the properties to advance organically, and since there is no stopper, moon is where we go.

Edit: The minority have for a hundred years argued for sound money. The majority do not want to keep their freedom, because of credit card points! Ref http://www.forbes.com/sites/learnvest/2013/07/01/i-fund-everything-in-my-life-with-credit-card-points/

So someone invented a better form of sound money, that people actually want to use, proof: the usage growth. There is no religion here.

[ShroomsKit]

I think the fear has reached an extreme far higher than anything in 2014 yet. People (including me) are talking about getting back to work, putting castles for sale, and the price reaching $100-$200 in a matter of weeks.

Typically, extreme fear is associated with prices that in nearly all timeframes provide far above-average returns. Unlike most extreme fear situations, the one in Bitcoin now is very easy to capitalize on, because bitcoins can easily be bought 24/7.

Even if buying more is not a realistic option due to the portfolio already being heavy in BTC, selling is generally not warranted unless you want to be one of those taken advantage of.

Didn't you call the bottom a few weeks ago?

He's full of shit. Like the rest of us. I always wonder why some people think he knows more than the next person.

[RAJSALLIN]

I think the fear has reached an extreme far higher than anything in 2014 yet. People (including me) are talking about getting back to work, putting castles for sale, and the price reaching $100-$200 in a matter of weeks.

Typically, extreme fear is associated with prices that in nearly all timeframes provide far above-average returns. Unlike most extreme fear situations, the one in Bitcoin now is very easy to capitalize on, because bitcoins can easily be bought 24/7.

Even if buying more is not a realistic option due to the portfolio already being heavy in BTC, selling is generally not warranted unless you want to be one of those taken advantage of.

When you think about it, Bitcoin is a real threat for economy in a given society, when the value goes up that fast ( as you claim it will) many people will be leaving their daily productive jobs.... and when thinking about mass adoption I start thinking about a bunch of greedy lazy bastards.... this surely will result to the collapse of that society.


Thankfully, after being home for 7 months now, I started looking for a job.

Very much the opposite. The falling global economy will create massive unemployment so a few new millionaires won't have an affect. If anything they will make things better since they won't end up being welfare cases and they might even create some new jobs (Risto already has).

[gizmoh]

You guys don't know when to spot a capitulation, do you?

The candle wick and price above $266 
Much damage has been done, lets see how far can it bounce.

[noobtrader]

Bitfinix touching 300 again. okcoin & lakebtc already back over 300.

beartrapped... i hope only few bear was trapped

bitfinix now 305. They got tired of waiting for bitstamp.

Chinese are sleeping atm.

Wait until they wake up and panic sell everything

or panic buy

[N12]

I don't know if it is THE capitulation, but it's something we haven't had since February, that's for sure.

[prophetx]

You guys don't know when to spot a capitulation, do you?

not yet

[ShroomsKit]

Take a deep breath its coming back. Bottom reached. lol

Until the next dump.

[rpietila]

I think the fear has reached an extreme far higher than anything in 2014 yet. People (including me) are talking about getting back to work, putting castles for sale, and the price reaching $100-$200 in a matter of weeks.

Typically, extreme fear is associated with prices that in nearly all timeframes provide far above-average returns. Unlike most extreme fear situations, the one in Bitcoin now is very easy to capitalize on, because bitcoins can easily be bought 24/7.

Even if buying more is not a realistic option due to the portfolio already being heavy in BTC, selling is generally not warranted unless you want to be one of those taken advantage of.

Risto I'm curious, I assume your opinion is that this is just temporary noise but if bitcoin were to EVER die out, how would you expect it to unfold and at what time?

WAYYYY too much new adoption, and, importantly, WAYYY too much new infrastructure and VC participation for this to be any kind of swan song.  We're still REALLY early in this story, not really late.

Right but how can you be so sure??
I mean, even though with all these good news and hype, there just seems to be no buying pressure and we barely had any bulltrap at all.

It doesn't make sense to me

The daily cash flow diagram of BTC economy is as follows (always totalling zero):

+ the purchases of existing holders
+ the purchases of new holders
- the sales of existing holders
- the value of new mining
-----------------------------------------
0.

When the price rises, the value of new mining goes up, giving possibility for more new money to come in. When it rises really high, also the existing holders sell in increasing quantities, absorbing all the new money and eventually forcing the price down. (BUBBLE PHASE).

When the price falls, the value of new mining goes down, but is still there. New money is sluggish to enter because price is in a downtrend. The existing holders largely need to absorb the mining, leading to further decline. (DOWNTREND).

When even the existing holders in large quantities throw in the towel and want to cash out, the price quickly falls until it meets a floor due to rising interest from new holders (and their fiat also buys much more coins, also mining value is very low). (CAPITULATION, SEEDS OF A NEW RISE)


Now, if the ecosystem would eventually die, we assume that new holders would not ever be coming and the existing holders would one at a time throw in the towel. Then the only ones to buy both the coins from the defectors + the newly mined coins, would be the other existing holders. In this case the price would go down (similar to DOWNTREND above) but even sharp falls would not ignite a new lasting uptrend.

This pattern has happened to many, if not the majority, of altcoins. The difference that sheds light to Bitcoin's situation is that no altcoin that eventually died or is in a terminal decline, has made successive booms before that. It has always been the tulip mania -style one bubble and then bust and die. Bitcoin has made several bubbles and survived as many busts, making the chances of survival from this one also, much higher.


Bitcoin is much more usable now than 12 months ago when the price was 4 times higher. Unless the actual ecosystem goes into decline, I would not worry of Bitcoin dying. IF the ecosystem goes into decline, though, the price is already likely in a trash, because markets tend to forecast such events. Considering the price, I have no reason to remove the STRONG BUY from Bitcoin though. Just make sure you operate with funds that you are comfortable with.

[N12]

You guys don't know when to spot a capitulation, do you?

not yet

Have you looked at daily volume? Sentiment?

[shmadz]

If price drop to "X" usd,  I will buy ALL  

Igorrrrrr is back!

Bullish!

 

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I don't know if it is THE capitulation, but it's something we haven't had since February, that's for sure.

 

[myworkaccount]

just saying...

the book of wolong: http://pastebin.com/cqM71kes

Position Building
There are multiple ways to build a position. This is the stage where we will
require a significant amount of market share to do pumps. The most
common method will be micro buys. Through placing of buy order in
relatively small amounts, it avoids driving up prices and also masked our
existence. Some alternate coins, however, has really low amount of volume,
and it will take ages to build up our position through mThe Book of WolongThe Book of Wolongicro buys. In such
cases, we will be force to do a pump up, to encourage sellers. Pump waves
will be gradually decreasing, smaller and smaller, forcing out all sellers so that
we can have what we want - market share. This has happened many times
infact to date, such as Doge/BTC, UNO/BTC, Dev/BTC and GLC/BTC.
 
Suppressing prices
Contradicting isn't it? That we are willing to pump altcoins up a few times of
it's value worth before driving down it prices. And yes, like I have stated
earlier on, prices does not matter to us as long we can sell higher. However,
like every other business on the industry, everyone would want their costs to
be as low as possible. In this very stage, we will pile up whatever we have
bought, to suppress prices as much as possible through sell walls so that we
are able to do our buying cheap. Our sell walls are usually just enough to
appear as though as it's the invisble hands of the market, minor supply over
demand.
 
.........
........
 Whales hate weak hands, they do not act as any form of
support for us during a pump, and we will are always determine to get rid of
them in the early stages, no matter how long it takes.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TheKoziTwo]

His investment just went down by $20,000,000 and this is what he has got to say?

LOL  

How early adopters feel about price swings:
https://i.imgur.com/3yGgoPh.gif

[podyx]

His investment just went down by $20,000,000 and this is what he has got to say?

LOL  

How early adopters feel about price swings:
https://i.imgur.com/3yGgoPh.gif

LMAO!

[vuduchyld]

Bitcoin is much more usable now than 12 months ago when the price was 4 times higher. Unless the actual ecosystem goes into decline, I would not worry of Bitcoin dying. IF the ecosystem goes into decline, though, the price is already likely in a trash, because markets tend to forecast such events.

That is it, in a nutshell.

Markets are sometimes irrational.  Use that irrationality as a buying opportunity.