Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

The daily cash flow diagram of BTC economy is as follows (always totalling zero):

+ the purchases of existing holders
+ the purchases of new holders
- the sales of existing holders
- the value of new mining
-----------------------------------------
0.

When the price rises, the value of new mining goes up, giving possibility for more new money to come in. When it rises really high, also the existing holders sell in increasing quantities, absorbing all the new money and eventually forcing the price down. (BUBBLE PHASE).

When the price falls, the value of new mining goes down, but is still there. New money is sluggish to enter because price is in a downtrend. The existing holders largely need to absorb the mining, leading to further decline. (DOWNTREND).

When even the existing holders in large quantities throw in the towel and want to cash out, the price quickly falls until it meets a floor due to rising interest from new holders (and their fiat also buys much more coins, also mining value is very low). (CAPITULATION, SEEDS OF A NEW RISE)


Now, if the ecosystem would eventually die, we assume that new holders would not ever be coming and the existing holders would one at a time throw in the towel. Then the only ones to buy both the coins from the defectors + the newly mined coins, would be the other existing holders. In this case the price would go down (similar to DOWNTREND above) but even sharp falls would not ignite a new lasting uptrend.

This pattern has happened to many, if not the majority, of altcoins. The difference that sheds light to Bitcoin's situation is that no altcoin that eventually died or is in a terminal decline, has made successive booms before that. It has always been the tulip mania -style one bubble and then bust and die. Bitcoin has made several bubbles and survived as many busts, making the chances of survival from this one also, much higher.


Bitcoin is much more usable now than 12 months ago when the price was 4 times higher. Unless the actual ecosystem goes into decline, I would not worry of Bitcoin dying. IF the ecosystem goes into decline, though, the price is already likely in a trash, because markets tend to forecast such events. Considering the price, I have no reason to remove the STRONG BUY from Bitcoin though. Just make sure you operate with funds that you are comfortable with.

The ecosystem will evolve into supporting a much wider range of cryptocurrencies, with many of them having far superior technical attributes then bitcoin. In the longer perspective, bitcoin will only be valued through history books.

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[Gws24]

It is more usable but there is no adoption by the general public yet! Face it, the hype is over for the moment and all the air is going out of the bubble.

[podyx]

I think the fear has reached an extreme far higher than anything in 2014 yet. People (including me) are talking about getting back to work, putting castles for sale, and the price reaching $100-$200 in a matter of weeks.

Typically, extreme fear is associated with prices that in nearly all timeframes provide far above-average returns. Unlike most extreme fear situations, the one in Bitcoin now is very easy to capitalize on, because bitcoins can easily be bought 24/7.

Even if buying more is not a realistic option due to the portfolio already being heavy in BTC, selling is generally not warranted unless you want to be one of those taken advantage of.

Risto I'm curious, I assume your opinion is that this is just temporary noise but if bitcoin were to EVER die out, how would you expect it to unfold and at what time?

WAYYYY too much new adoption, and, importantly, WAYYY too much new infrastructure and VC participation for this to be any kind of swan song.  We're still REALLY early in this story, not really late.

Right but how can you be so sure??
I mean, even though with all these good news and hype, there just seems to be no buying pressure and we barely had any bulltrap at all.

It doesn't make sense to me

Now, if the ecosystem would eventually die, we assume that new holders would not ever be coming and the existing holders would one at a time throw in the towel. Then the only ones to buy both the coins from the defectors + the newly mined coins, would be the other existing holders. In this case the price would go down (similar to DOWNTREND above) but even sharp falls would not ignite a new lasting uptrend.

This pattern has happened to many, if not the majority, of altcoins. The difference that sheds light to Bitcoin's situation is that no altcoin that eventually died or is in a terminal decline, has made successive booms before that. It has always been the tulip mania -style one bubble and then bust and die. Bitcoin has made several bubbles and survived as many busts, making the chances of survival from this one also, much higher.

Yea but one eventually one of the bubbles has to be the last bubble (if it were to fail that is)

Bitcoin is much more usable now than 12 months ago when the price was 4 times higher. Unless the actual ecosystem goes into decline, I would not worry of Bitcoin dying. IF the ecosystem goes into decline, though, the price is already likely in a trash, because markets tend to forecast such events. Considering the price, I have no reason to remove the STRONG BUY from Bitcoin though. Just make sure you operate with funds that you are comfortable with.

So perhaps the ecosystem is about to decline soon?
Thanks for response btw!

[Erdogan]

The big wall - it must be an angel, playing with your mind....

[inca]

Just got back from a family bash without phone reception.

Seems to have dipped on good volume and reversed. Is this a dead at bounce before the fireworks or have I missed the display?

What us this about 30k whales manipulating the market?

Also, too early to buy?

[roslinpl]

It is more usable but there is no adoption by the general public yet! Face it, the hype is over for the moment and all the air is going out of the bubble.

What bubble?

Did I missed something again?

I am so happy price is so so low it is almost so low that maybe I will be able to buy WHOLE Bitcoin very soon

God damn I am lucky! xD

[TheBearWhale]

This is not over - tread lightly 

[cbeast]

I'm wondering how many complaints there will be when the next run up has folks complaining that there are no coins to buy or their orders got cancelled?

[touhonoob]

cheap coins 
https://i.imgur.com/JvwNNtN.png

[finlon]

Just got back from a family bash without phone reception.

Seems to have dipped on good volume and reversed. Is this a dead at bounce before the fireworks or have I missed the display?

What us this about 30k whales manipulating the market?

Also, too early to buy?

Too Early to buy?
No one knows. But it seems a safe price to buy in. I doubt the price will drop much more.

[zakalwe]

This is not over - tread lightly 

Killer bear lol

[blade87]

cheap coins  

Ok Bill Gates. You can buy up the entire BTC cap with a fraction of your wealth. Please save us from Russian oppression!

[UnDerDoG81]

Holy shit, if this boat sinks, that was my last big investment in my life because I will lose 70% of all I ever had   What gives, fuck it...

[N12]

Cheap Coins MotherFucker

[prophetx]

You guys don't know when to spot a capitulation, do you?

not yet

Have you looked at daily volume? Sentiment?

it might go to about 320 before getting dumped on again

where ever it settles it will need to build a wide base

there will be plenty of time to buy in me thinks

[blade87]

2014 should become known as "Year of the Cheap Ass Coin".

[NotLambchop]

...Also, too early to buy?

Don't miss the boat!



Choo?

[vuduchyld]

podyx, I don't think you could find even one possible example that would indicate infrastructure is in decline.

Overstock, Dell, Priceline
GABI/SMBT
possible ETF
Paypal
Draper/VC money

[mmitech]

cheap coins 

For a brief moment I started thinking " ok maybe this is the bottom" but then I went  to twitter and saw the fucking cultist shitting their pants, I visit the main sub and I see early adopters crying on this forum, and for this exact reason I am not buying yet.

[sbrzol]

please flash crash again at least to $278  , i want to buy back some hundred
thanks in advance