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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26392065 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
SAQ
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April 26, 2013, 02:00:38 PM
 #1801

4h EMA as seen on ClarkMoody is about to cross. That's bearish, right?
With that said, I really don't understand why people are selling; everything fundamental is growing stronger each day. When I look at the press and public awareness, I can only see bullish signals.

You joking right? Articles about bitcoins aren't fundamentals. Arguably, exchanges aren't either, but practically speaking they are and they have been dropping closing like flies.
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April 26, 2013, 02:02:15 PM
 #1802

What's interesting right now is that we are just beginning to enter a phase of institutional interest, and, I think, as luck would have it for larger investors, people were scared into putting lots of bitcoin back on MtGox.  The ask depth is looking very healthy, and that is exactly what is needed and wanted by people who want to invest $100k+.  I think in the next 2 years we could see the bid depth on MtGox reach around $50 million, and the price will need to adjust upward (and there will be a subsequent dramatic correction, no doubt).

Yeah, we are just starting to get the very first drops of the institutional money.

with paypal and google talking it up... man... the next 5 years should be epic.

Yup we haven't even gotten to the true "media attention" phase. That phase will get the public interest to invest...which shortly thereafter you may consider selling some coins.
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April 26, 2013, 02:06:38 PM
 #1803

What's interesting right now is that we are just beginning to enter a phase of institutional interest, and, I think, as luck would have it for larger investors, people were scared into putting lots of bitcoin back on MtGox.  The ask depth is looking very healthy, and that is exactly what is needed and wanted by people who want to invest $100k+.  I think in the next 2 years we could see the bid depth on MtGox reach around $50 million, and the price will need to adjust upward (and there will be a subsequent dramatic correction, no doubt).

I think that the bid depth can reach $50 million by June 1st 2013.

It doesn't take much interested to add up to $50 million waiting on the exchange to buy bitcoins.


Unless Mark Karpeles is lying, there's already much, much more than that waiting at Mt.Gox, off the book.

I believe he stated that MtGox was receiving $5M to $20M per day as of early April. (Reuters Interview)

They have more than 215 000 brand new customers Q1 2013 + the first half of April alone.

We're may have to start talking in terms of mBTC / μBTC much sooner than I would have expected only a few weeks/months ago.
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April 26, 2013, 02:07:57 PM
 #1804

I just feel more comfortable with fiat at the moment. If it goes up, I'll catch it up, I'll lose a bit but that's fine, just don't have a feeling the risk of staying behind is bigger than opposite.

This is the main problem with people in the bitcoin world. You trust fiat more? you certainly know that bitcoin can either go to $50 or go to $200 in a day, you just need to be patient and buy/sell at the right times. With fiat, well.. you have fiat, that's as fun as watching paint dry and by that I mean, slowly but surely that inflation is eating it up..


Yes, I trust fiat more at this moment. I've trusted bitcoins more for days before yesterday. I'm not investor, I'm trader and I'm not going to look my coins dipping to be worth 15/20/30 dollars less without selling and trying to buy more and have them more if I feel that's what I should do.

I don't care what anyone thinks about it, as long as volatility is as it is I'm not hoarding my coins, specially as I don't have enough of them to just wait to become rich Smiley at some time.

So, you do your stuff, I'll do mine. I'm not here to help your mined or cheaply bought coins being worth more, I know that's what early adopters want from people but I couldn't care less about their coins and what they want Smiley, I'm here to make what's best for me Smiley If I lose all I've invested in btc, I won't lose a sleep, I've never invested more than I can forget.

+1 THIS, jeje ...
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April 26, 2013, 02:08:06 PM
 #1805

I just feel more comfortable with fiat at the moment. If it goes up, I'll catch it up, I'll lose a bit but that's fine, just don't have a feeling the risk of staying behind is bigger than opposite.

This is the main problem with people in the bitcoin world. You trust fiat more? you certainly know that bitcoin can either go to $50 or go to $200 in a day, you just need to be patient and buy/sell at the right times. With fiat, well.. you have fiat, that's as fun as watching paint dry and by that I mean, slowly but surely that inflation is eating it up..


Yes, I trust fiat more at this moment. I've trusted bitcoins more for days before yesterday. I'm not investor, I'm trader and I'm not going to look my coins dipping to be worth 15/20/30 dollars less without selling and trying to buy more and have them more if I feel that's what I should do.

I don't care what anyone thinks about it, as long as volatility is as it is I'm not hoarding my coins, specially as I don't have enough of them to just wait to become rich Smiley at some time.

So, you do your stuff, I'll do mine. I'm not here to help your mined or cheaply bought coins being worth more, I know that's what early adopters want from people but I couldn't care less about their coins and what they want Smiley, I'm here to make what's best for me Smiley If I lose all I've invested in btc, I won't lose a sleep, I've never invested more than I can forget.

My point is it doesn't matter when you buy, you can buy BTC now at 135 and if it goes down, you might have to wait longer to sell, but eventually, you'll sell at a profit. Sure, you can wait and buy when it dips, then you will have to wait until it goes up again to sell, if it ever does go up... so it's a matter of timing, that's all
With fiat... you just have fiat... Tongue


Your point has serious problem - I was late yesterday to buy at 121 at first crash, if I had put my order 10-15 seconds before, I could make hundreds of dollars in 2 minutes. Then again do it 2-3 times til today in some longer periods. I did bought them in low 120s again and sold in 130s but I've missed 2 earlier opportunities - one because I was late, 2nd because I was not in the state to rationally try to analyze the market so I just decided to miss it.

Your point completely takes those possible profits out and suggests I should buy now at 136, eventually sleep through it's dipping to 120 and wait if it goes up above my entry point to make some profit. It's not only pretty nonsense system,  it's boring too, I'd rather sell socks on the street Smiley

I'm here to grow my small group of coins or lose them all. I don't care what price of btc would be in 5 years if I have them as many as I do now.
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April 26, 2013, 02:09:41 PM
 #1806

What's interesting right now is that we are just beginning to enter a phase of institutional interest, and, I think, as luck would have it for larger investors, people were scared into putting lots of bitcoin back on MtGox.  The ask depth is looking very healthy, and that is exactly what is needed and wanted by people who want to invest $100k+.  I think in the next 2 years we could see the bid depth on MtGox reach around $50 million, and the price will need to adjust upward (and there will be a subsequent dramatic correction, no doubt).

I think that the bid depth can reach $50 million by June 1st 2013.

It doesn't take much interested to add up to $50 million waiting on the exchange to buy bitcoins.


Unless Mark Karpeles is lying, there's already much, much more than that waiting at Mt.Gox, off the book.

I believe he stated that MtGox was receiving $5M to $20M per day as of early April. (Reuters Interview)

He could be lying and still it would be possible to hit that mark by then.

Fiat is much more abundant than some of us give credit to.

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April 26, 2013, 02:10:00 PM
 #1807

4h EMA as seen on ClarkMoody is about to cross. That's bearish, right?
With that said, I really don't understand why people are selling; everything fundamental is growing stronger each day. When I look at the press and public awareness, I can only see bullish signals.

You joking right? Articles about bitcoins aren't fundamentals. Arguably, exchanges aren't either, but practically speaking they are and they have been dropping closing like flies.

coinlab seems like it will open soon, down with the weak in with the stong

Any updates on the Coinlab integration? Their website is still stuck with the March 21 update.
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April 26, 2013, 02:16:03 PM
 #1808

4h EMA as seen on ClarkMoody is about to cross. That's bearish, right?
With that said, I really don't understand why people are selling; everything fundamental is growing stronger each day. When I look at the press and public awareness, I can only see bullish signals.

You joking right? Articles about bitcoins aren't fundamentals. Arguably, exchanges aren't either, but practically speaking they are and they have been dropping closing like flies.

Not joking, but then it seems you misread my post. Let me break it down for you:

1. Everything fundamental is growing stronger each day.
2. Even in the press, there is plenty of bullish signals.

I did not say that press = fundamentals. English is not my native language, since I am from Sweden after all. So forgive me if my first post was unclear.
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April 26, 2013, 02:17:46 PM
 #1809

Quote
Any updates on the Coinlab integration? Their website is still stuck with the March 21 update.

http://coinlab.com/transition

They updated it it May 6th awhile ago.
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April 26, 2013, 02:27:20 PM
 #1810

I just feel more comfortable with fiat at the moment. If it goes up, I'll catch it up, I'll lose a bit but that's fine, just don't have a feeling the risk of staying behind is bigger than opposite.

This is the main problem with people in the bitcoin world. You trust fiat more? you certainly know that bitcoin can either go to $50 or go to $200 in a day, you just need to be patient and buy/sell at the right times. With fiat, well.. you have fiat, that's as fun as watching paint dry and by that I mean, slowly but surely that inflation is eating it up..


Yes, I trust fiat more at this moment. I've trusted bitcoins more for days before yesterday. I'm not investor, I'm trader and I'm not going to look my coins dipping to be worth 15/20/30 dollars less without selling and trying to buy more and have them more if I feel that's what I should do.

I don't care what anyone thinks about it, as long as volatility is as it is I'm not hoarding my coins, specially as I don't have enough of them to just wait to become rich Smiley at some time.

So, you do your stuff, I'll do mine. I'm not here to help your mined or cheaply bought coins being worth more, I know that's what early adopters want from people but I couldn't care less about their coins and what they want Smiley, I'm here to make what's best for me Smiley If I lose all I've invested in btc, I won't lose a sleep, I've never invested more than I can forget.

My point is it doesn't matter when you buy, you can buy BTC now at 135 and if it goes down, you might have to wait longer to sell, but eventually, you'll sell at a profit. Sure, you can wait and buy when it dips, then you will have to wait until it goes up again to sell, if it ever does go up... so it's a matter of timing, that's all
With fiat... you just have fiat... Tongue


Your point has serious problem - I was late yesterday to buy at 121 at first crash, if I had put my order 10-15 seconds before, I could make hundreds of dollars in 2 minutes. Then again do it 2-3 times til today in some longer periods. I did bought them in low 120s again and sold in 130s but I've missed 2 earlier opportunities - one because I was late, 2nd because I was not in the state to rationally try to analyze the market so I just decided to miss it.

Your point completely takes those possible profits out and suggests I should buy now at 136, eventually sleep through it's dipping to 120 and wait if it goes up above my entry point to make some profit. It's not only pretty nonsense system,  it's boring too, I'd rather sell socks on the street Smiley

I'm here to grow my small group of coins or lose them all. I don't care what price of btc would be in 5 years if I have them as many as I do now.

My point is way more fun than holding fiat, that's for sure. Yesterday if you bought at 130 (I'm just calling the somewhat average for yesterday since it went to 122 and it was at 150 earlier on the day, you had plenty of chances to make money, if you didn't then you're not a good trader.
No one can call the absolute top or bottom, I sold at 147 and I bought at 135, yes, I could have bought at 122, but who knows how low is going or how high? no one really knows.
your strategy of holding fiat, sure, I respect it, it's just seem so dull and boring... I keep my amount of bitcoins consistent and I buy/sell on dips and I use the leftover fiat as winnings I don't buy more bitcoins because I already have the amount I want. But I keep my coins and I just use fiat to withdraw. Again, I'm not a trader, but when there are obvious opportunities to trade I'd do it.
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April 26, 2013, 02:32:09 PM
 #1811

Quote
My point is way more fun than holding fiat, that's for sure

Who said I'm holding my bloody fiat, lol. Have you read my posts at all?

I'm holding fiat when I, and I'll repeat it when I, think it's the best thing to do. I might and have been wrong many times but I'm taking full responsibility for that as it's my money, not anyone's else. And it's Me who is going to do things with it, not anyones else wishes. I'm perfectly ready to research stuff and take advice from people I believe are worthy of that but on the end it's Me who is making decisions, nobody else.

As soon as I feel, and I repeat when I feel, that it's better to hold coins, I hold them.

And neither of those tow means holding as putting it when sun doesn't shine, it can mean I'm holding any of them for hour, two, 5, day, two or 5 until I feel it's better to hold other one.
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April 26, 2013, 02:33:23 PM
 #1812

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My point is way more fun than holding fiat, that's for sure

Who said I'm holding my bloody fiat, lol. Have you read my posts at all?

I'm holding fiat when I, and I'll repeat it when I, think it's the best thing to do. I might and have been wrong many times but I'm taking full responsibility for that as it's my money, not anyone's else.

As soon as I feel, and I repeat when I feel, that it's better to hold coins, I hold them.

And neither of those tow means holding as putting it when sun doesn't shine, it can mean I'm holding any of them for hour, two, 5, day, two or 5 until I feel it's better to hold other one.

"My body is ready, because it told me it is ready"  Cheesy
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April 26, 2013, 02:40:48 PM
Last edit: April 26, 2013, 02:54:18 PM by SAQ
 #1813


1. Everything fundamental is growing stronger each day.


What exactly has happened to make the fundamentals stronger? People don't care about DDos as much as they used to anymore, but even then the last time Mt got Ddos'ed for more than an hour the price shot down - and then quickly up.

Exchanges are really weak at this point. 4 of them have been shut in one week because banks closed their accounts. What happens if mt's account is closed? We go from 137 to 5.

Until we get a robust exchange which is likely within a few months, I think the price is hugely overvalued. It might in the very short term go up to 160 again, but the trendline is down for a bit because it is just too risky to invest at 140 and those that might buy would be very jumpy.

Moreover, the press attention reaches a saturation point. Most people have herd about bitcoins now. Most certainly everyone that works in finance has herd about them but even your mom and dad has herd about them with bitcoins having been mentioned in the news all over. Whoever has wanted to buy has done so or will finish doing so this month or next.

Institutional investors might think of getting on board, but stocks give good returns, are certain to be worth at least half their price and are safe for the investment manager to invest in. On the other hand, bitcoins is of the highest risk, the price has no stability so the investment would need to be actively managed which is quite expensive and the market is quite small for big money so it is even more difficult to buy the thing which is quite a big consideration considering how difficult it is to buy even for the avarage joe.

For these reasons, unless we get some big good news, the bear has killed the cat.

That said though, we got this mini crash probably because of all the recent problems with Silk Road. By Monday we might be racing to 200 again.
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April 26, 2013, 02:47:36 PM
 #1814

Until we get a robust exchange which is likely within a few months, I think the price is hugely overvalued. It might in the very short term go up to 160 again, but the trendline is down for a bit because it is just too risky to invest at 140 and those that might buy would be very jumpy.

The outlook of a more robust and more professional exchange is exactly what makes bitcoins even now undervalued in my opinion. Everyone knows what will happen once these exchanges hit the market, so you better prepare now for it and not wait until the price shoots up drastically with some real investors joining the market.
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April 26, 2013, 02:49:04 PM
 #1815


1. Everything fundamental is growing stronger each day.


What exactly has happened to make the fundamentals stronger? People don't care about DDos as much as they used to anymore, but even then the last time Mt got Ddos'ed for more than an hour the price shot down - and then quickly up.

Exchanges are really weak at this point. 4 of them have been shut in one week because banks closed their accounts. What happens if mt's account is closed? We go from 137 to 5.

Until we get a robust exchange which is likely within a few months, I think the price is hugely overvalued. It might in the very short term go up to 160 again, but the trendline is down for a bit because it is just too risky to invest at 140 and those that might buy would be very jumpy.

Moreover, the press attention reaches a saturation point. Most people have herd about bitcoins now. Most certainly everyone that works in finance has herd about them but even your mom and dad has herd about them with bitcoins having been mentioned in the news all over. Whoever has wanted to buy has done so or will finish doing so this month or next.

Institutional investors might think of getting on board, but stocks give good returns, are certain to be worth at least half their price and are safe for the investment manager to invest in. On the other hand, bitcoins is of the highest risk, the price has no stability so the investment would need to be actively managed which is quite expensive and the market is quite small for big money so it is even more difficult to buy the thing which is quite a big consideration considering how difficult it is to buy even for the avarage joe.

For these reasons, unless we get some big good news, the bear has killed the cat.

What about all the merchants; isn't that one of the main goals for bitcoin? I've seen more new merchants accepting in the past week than ever.
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April 26, 2013, 02:59:14 PM
 #1816


1. Everything fundamental is growing stronger each day.


What exactly has happened to make the fundamentals stronger? People don't care about DDos as much as they used to anymore, but even then the last time Mt got Ddos'ed for more than an hour the price shot down - and then quickly up.

Exchanges are really weak at this point. 4 of them have been shut in one week because banks closed their accounts. What happens if mt's account is closed? We go from 137 to 5.

Until we get a robust exchange which is likely within a few months, I think the price is hugely overvalued. It might in the very short term go up to 160 again, but the trendline is down for a bit because it is just too risky to invest at 140 and those that might buy would be very jumpy.

Moreover, the press attention reaches a saturation point. Most people have herd about bitcoins now. Most certainly everyone that works in finance has herd about them but even your mom and dad has herd about them with bitcoins having been mentioned in the news all over. Whoever has wanted to buy has done so or will finish doing so this month or next.

Institutional investors might think of getting on board, but stocks give good returns, are certain to be worth at least half their price and are safe for the investment manager to invest in. On the other hand, bitcoins is of the highest risk, the price has no stability so the investment would need to be actively managed which is quite expensive and the market is quite small for big money so it is even more difficult to buy the thing which is quite a big consideration considering how difficult it is to buy even for the avarage joe.

For these reasons, unless we get some big good news, the bear has killed the cat.

There are many fundamental reasons why it's shooting up. It started with Reddit & Wordpress and most recently its the fact that China has taken the lead in bitcoin-qt downloads. http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/bitcoin-0.8.1/bitcoin-0.8.1-win32-setup.exe/stats/map?dates=2013-04-20+to+2013-04-26
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April 26, 2013, 03:00:20 PM
 #1817

There's more than 1500 coins in asks in 1 dollar range from current marketplace and nobody's biting for some time.
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April 26, 2013, 03:08:53 PM
 #1818

So, what are the expectations for the weekend guys? Based on past weekends I'd say that it will stay around $130-$140 without much happening at all. Weekends are kinda boring actually. Sad
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April 26, 2013, 03:11:47 PM
 #1819

So, what are the expectations for the weekend guys? Based on past weekends I'd say that it will stay around $130-$140 without much happening at all. Weekends are kinda boring actually. Sad

That's pretty much my guess. Most of the action will be in how the bids and asks fill in. Support at $120 is getting stronger each time I look
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April 26, 2013, 03:14:43 PM
 #1820


1. Everything fundamental is growing stronger each day.


What exactly has happened to make the fundamentals stronger? People don't care about DDos as much as they used to anymore, but even then the last time Mt got Ddos'ed for more than an hour the price shot down - and then quickly up.

Exchanges are really weak at this point. 4 of them have been shut in one week because banks closed their accounts. What happens if mt's account is closed? We go from 137 to 5.

Until we get a robust exchange which is likely within a few months, I think the price is hugely overvalued. It might in the very short term go up to 160 again, but the trendline is down for a bit because it is just too risky to invest at 140 and those that might buy would be very jumpy.

Moreover, the press attention reaches a saturation point. Most people have herd about bitcoins now. Most certainly everyone that works in finance has herd about them but even your mom and dad has herd about them with bitcoins having been mentioned in the news all over. Whoever has wanted to buy has done so or will finish doing so this month or next.

Institutional investors might think of getting on board, but stocks give good returns, are certain to be worth at least half their price and are safe for the investment manager to invest in. On the other hand, bitcoins is of the highest risk, the price has no stability so the investment would need to be actively managed which is quite expensive and the market is quite small for big money so it is even more difficult to buy the thing which is quite a big consideration considering how difficult it is to buy even for the avarage joe.

For these reasons, unless we get some big good news, the bear has killed the cat.

There are many fundamental reasons why it's shooting up. It started with Reddit & Wordpress and most recently its the fact that China has taken the lead in bitcoin-qt downloads. http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/bitcoin-0.8.1/bitcoin-0.8.1-win32-setup.exe/stats/map?dates=2013-04-20+to+2013-04-26

Is this only for 0.8.1 or does it take into account earlier versions too?
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