Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[SkyValeey]

Just $15 dollars up and people acting like we are back to 600


meh

 

[BitChick]

If you don't have enough liquid cash reserves or income that you are forced to sell a "coin or two" every now and then, you are doing it wrong.

I would have to agree with you.  I was of the mindset to keep more cash in reserve but my husband figured Bitcoin had a better "return" than the crazy low interest rate the bank offers so we decided, albeit foolishly, to go ahead and keep our reserves in Bitcoin and pull from there when needed.  Seemed a brilliant plan until we have had months of downward movement.  On the upswings it is amazing though.  

The only comfort is that we never really had much cash on reserve until we began investing in BTC, so really, it isn't that big of a deal.  It is just that our BTC value isn't the same as it was a year ago.  

[Totscha]

If you don't have enough liquid cash reserves or income that you are forced to sell a "coin or two" every now and then, you are doing it wrong.

I would have to agree with you.  I was of the mindset to keep more cash in reserve but my husband figured Bitcoin had a better "return" than the crazy low interest rate the bank offers so we decided, albeit foolishly, to go ahead and keep our reserves in Bitcoin and pull from there when needed.  Seemed a brilliant plan until we have had months of downward movement.  On the upswings it is amazing though.  

The only comfort is that we never really had much cash on reserve until we began investing in BTC, so really, it isn't that big of a deal.  It is just that our BTC value isn't the same as it was a year ago.  

It was @ $240 exactly one year ago But it's true that we were in a strong up trend back then...

[Sitting Bull]

Cheer up, hodlers!  The moon people are already planning your welcome home party!*

http://s28.postimg.org/qlnkzsnbx/almost.jpg

*You lunatics

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxxahnBMlG1r2gru0o1_500.gif

[NotLambchop]

If you don't have enough liquid cash reserves or income that you are forced to sell a "coin or two" every now and then, you are doing it wrong.

I would have to agree with you.  I was of the mindset to keep more cash in reserve but my husband figured Bitcoin had a better "return" than the crazy low interest rate the bank offers so we decided, albeit foolishly, to go ahead and keep our reserves in Bitcoin and pull from there when needed.  Seemed a brilliant plan until we have had months of downward movement.  On the upswings it is amazing though.  

The only comfort is that we never really had much cash on reserve until we began investing in BTC, so really, it isn't that big of a deal.  It is just that our BTC value isn't the same as it was a year ago.  

Look at it this way:  Whatever happens, you OWN your double-wide

[rebuilder]

Keep doubting the 5th of October. Keep doubting and supply the fuel!

Again: I'm not dissing traders, am doing so myself. But it is interesting nonetheless. At least in terminology, the 'holder' mentality seems to decline in importance somewhat, while the 'trader' mentality is on the rise. I suspect a twofold reason: the long bear market (rewarding thinking in terms of USD profits), and an increasing professionalization of the market.

There are times when many people HODL. That's when it is best to be a trader because the signals will be crisp clear. Other times, many people get into "trading", and that's when it is best to be an investor, because that's when the signals begin to get muddled.

So, I don't think this is "professionalization". It's the same as always, fools thinking they're clever and going short after 11-12 months of bear market.

I think the demographic has simply shifted.

Remember when you could come to Bitcointalk and read about how the mainstream media would never mention Bitcoin because the Banksters don't want people to find out, and anyway the Illuminati would have anyone remotely connected with Bitcoin assassinated soon enough if it keeps growing? (Slight exaggeration here.)

The further back you go, the more likely anyone who's bought BTC was mainly interested in the tech and/or political implications, and less in making a profit. Sure, people talked about how the price must go up if adoption grows, but it was much more pie-in-the sky before the first bubbles. Furthermore, anyone still holding from back has likely recouped their -probably modest - original investment many, many times over and is not terribly emotionally attached to the price now.

When the big headlines came, it was the price the media talked about. That draws a different crowd, one more interested in profits, and more likely to invest personally significant sums. Also, it would draw people already into trading e.g. Forex markets. So you'd expect the focus to shift from holding to trading and price anxiety.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[N12]

I think the demographic has simply shifted.

Remember when you could come to Bitcointalk and read about how the mainstream media would never mention Bitcoin because the Banksters don't want people to find out, and anyway the Illuminati would have anyone remotely connected with Bitcoin assassinated soon enough if it keeps growing? (Slight exaggeration here.)

The further back you go, the more likely anyone who's bought BTC was mainly interested in the tech and/or political implications, and less in making a profit. Sure, people talked about how the price must go up if adoption grows, but it was much more pie-in-the sky before the first bubbles. Furthermore, anyone still holding from back has likely recouped their -probably modest - original investment many, many times over and is not terribly emotionally attached to the price now.

When the big headlines came, it was the price the media talked about. That draws a different crowd, one more interested in profits, and more likely to invest personally significant sums. Also, it would draw people already into trading e.g. Forex markets. So you'd expect the focus to shift from holding to trading and price anxiety.

I think you have a bit of an idealized view of the early people. Here, Hal Finney, 10th of January, 2009:

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

And this was at Bitcoin's inception.

[NotLambchop]

...
I think the demographic has simply shifted.

Remember when you could come to Bitcointalk and read about how the mainstream media would never mention Bitcoin because the Banksters don't want people to find out, and anyway the Illuminati would have anyone remotely connected with Bitcoin assassinated soon enough if it keeps growing? (Slight exaggeration here.)

The further back you go, the more likely anyone who's bought BTC was mainly interested in the tech and/or political implications, and less in making a profit. Sure, people talked about how the price must go up if adoption grows, but it was much more pie-in-the sky before the first bubbles. Furthermore, anyone still holding from back has likely recouped their -probably modest - original investment many, many times over and is not terribly emotionally attached to the price now.

When the big headlines came, it was the price the media talked about. That draws a different crowd, one more interested in profits, and more likely to invest personally significant sums. Also, it would draw people already into trading e.g. Forex markets. So you'd expect the focus to shift from holding to trading and price anxiety.

^That.  Which doesn't negate "professionalization."  Bigger market cap has attracted bigger, smarter fish.

[JorgeStolfi]

2014-06-05: 660 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-04-05:

2012-11-05:   10 USD/BTC
2013-11-05: 244 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-11-05:      

 

Should we fit a parabola through those three points, and see what it predicts? 

I'd like to see a parabola fit through these 3 points, my brain says it can't be done with a parabola.
More likely to fit a Gaussian distribution.

A gaussian is just a parabola in log scale.  So, here is the result, in linear and log scale:


 

(Seriously now: these are NOT my predictions.  The point of these plots is only to show that the choice of the mathematica model (straight line or parabola, linear or log scale, ...) determines the conclusion about future prices, even before the fitting.  In particular, by choosing a straight line, one will necessarily conclude that there "must" be another huge bubble "soon".)

[noobtrader]

Hey guys sorry if this is off topic but does anyone know, are you no longer allowed to change your leverage rate on bitfinex?

I thought they allowed up to 2.5x leverage, but I'm not seeing anywhere to adjust leverage settings.

so..

what happend ?
short squezzed

afaik, you set your leverage rate when you register

[Kupsi]

Hey guys sorry if this is off topic but does anyone know, are you no longer allowed to change your leverage rate on bitfinex?

I thought they allowed up to 2.5x leverage, but I'm not seeing anywhere to adjust leverage settings.

so..

what happend ?
short squezzed

afaik, you set your leverage rate when you register

I do recall setting my leverage settings when I registered. Odd that they don't allow you to adjust it later.

I suppose I will just have to make a new account if I want to change my leverage settings then  

They have one leverage setting for all users now.

[Cheeseonastick]

Hey guys sorry if this is off topic but does anyone know, are you no longer allowed to change your leverage rate on bitfinex?

I thought they allowed up to 2.5x leverage, but I'm not seeing anywhere to adjust leverage settings.

so..

what happend ?
short squezzed

afaik, you set your leverage rate when you register

I do recall setting my leverage settings when I registered. Odd that they don't allow you to adjust it later.

I suppose I will just have to make a new account if I want to change my leverage settings then 

They have one leverage settings for all users now.

Interesting, thanks for the info. When did they change this?

I assume it's 1:1 for everyone?

[Kupsi]

In our ongoing effort to deliver the very best in crytocurrency trading, Bitfinex is pleased to announce several changes and enhancements to our margin system that will pave the way for better risk management, product-based margin requirements, and future trading products. We have also decided to streamline some of the associated margin features, updating and harmonizing margin terminology

1. We have decided to eliminate the “Choose your leverage” feature, i.e., 1:1, 2:1 & 2.5:1. Instead of this, we are implementing a “per-pair” leverage allowance. This will allow us to tailor the exposure based on the assets volatility. Virtually all users maximize this value, and since it is self-selected anyway, we have chosen to simplify our product by eliminating it.

2. We are also changing the way that we calculate “Tradeable Balance”. Currently, we do not consider the nature of a traders collateral when trading swaps, but that has lead to a loophole that allows a trader to effectively achieve 3.5:1 leverage by using BTC as collateral for a long BTC swap (most common example). While we are not particularly concerned about the effective leverage per se (see #3 below), we do, nonetheless want to harmonize risk management by considering any other collateral besides the one indicated by the pair (USD in the case of BTCUSD) as part of the allowing leverage for that position.

3. While we understand that #2 may impact some traders used to the “extra” leverage, we are counteracting its effects by increasing initial allowable leverage to 3.33:1. We are making this change in the context of making the following changes the margin terminology and parameters.
          1. We will be changing any mention of “Leverage” to “Initial Margin” and representing it as a percentage instead of a ratio, which means that leverage of 2.5:1 would be represented as 40%. The new leverage of 3.33:1 will be shown as an Initial Margin of 30%.
          2. Maintenance Margin will be increased slightly to 15% and will be fixed to be always be half of the Initial Margin for any giving swaps product.
          3. These changes will allow us to easily adjust the margin parameters for a given swap pair to reflect marketplace realities as well as give us the ability to introduce future products that, for example, may be substantially less volatile, requiring less margin to trade. For the time being, 30%/15% margin parameters will be the same for all swap products.

The net effect of trader behavior and existing positions will be negligible and we look forward to delivering on the possibilities and new opportunities created by these changes. These changes will go into effect on Monday, August 18, 2014 at 00:00 UTC.

[davidorentol]

next gox

[oda.krell]

Keep doubting the 5th of October. Keep doubting and supply the fuel!

Again: I'm not dissing traders, am doing so myself. But it is interesting nonetheless. At least in terminology, the 'holder' mentality seems to decline in importance somewhat, while the 'trader' mentality is on the rise. I suspect a twofold reason: the long bear market (rewarding thinking in terms of USD profits), and an increasing professionalization of the market.

There are times when many people HODL. That's when it is best to be a trader because the signals will be crisp clear. Other times, many people get into "trading", and that's when it is best to be an investor, because that's when the signals begin to get muddled.

So, I don't think this is "professionalization". It's the same as always, fools thinking they're clever and going short after 11-12 months of bear market.

I think the demographic has simply shifted.

Remember when you could come to Bitcointalk and read about how the mainstream media would never mention Bitcoin because the Banksters don't want people to find out, and anyway the Illuminati would have anyone remotely connected with Bitcoin assassinated soon enough if it keeps growing? (Slight exaggeration here.)

The further back you go, the more likely anyone who's bought BTC was mainly interested in the tech and/or political implications, and less in making a profit. Sure, people talked about how the price must go up if adoption grows, but it was much more pie-in-the sky before the first bubbles. Furthermore, anyone still holding from back has likely recouped their -probably modest - original investment many, many times over and is not terribly emotionally attached to the price now.

When the big headlines came, it was the price the media talked about. That draws a different crowd, one more interested in profits, and more likely to invest personally significant sums. Also, it would draw people already into trading e.g. Forex markets. So you'd expect the focus to shift from holding to trading and price anxiety.

Tend to agree. At the very least, there's now a significant number of "sort of professional amateurs" that usually run their strategies on forex or stocks, that are now using it on Bitcoin. Nothing wrong with that, imo, just changes the perspective a bit.

[derpinheimer]

Yeah... That looks very organic to me. Is this data for real?

No. This is a glitch in bitstamp.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[N12]

I disagree with you guys, I don't think percentage wise that anything much has changed in the political vs. trading camps. Look how many deluded (let's say non-pragmatic) people there are on r/bitcoin and bitcointalk too. I've known speculators from 2010, 2011, and some of them top notch, having had experience from other markets. As an example, I believe Bitcoin was mentioned in Prechter's newsletter in 2010 and that drew some chartists.

Also, there's often a large overlap between the two camps, it really isn't clear cut. You also need to keep in mind that some people with dollar signs in front of their eyes will talk the feel good (blah blah the unbanked) rhetoric but that's only to shill.

What I would agree with though is that, inevitably, it's gone downhill with the quality of discourse as the price rose and the Bitcoin cult grew over the years, whether this be speculative (just look at the retards on r/bitcoinmarkets, at least what they've become today) or political/economical. A small price to pay.

[biggus dickus]

Yeah... That looks very organic to me. Is this data for real?

No. This is a glitch in bitstamp.

I noticed a similar thing earlier today, but I also think it's a glitch because it looks OK now.