Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Bassica]

More supply again (MtGox 200K BTC + 2nd SR auction):

Down

It always amazes me that there are panic dumps whenever an article mentions a chunk of coins being manhandled in some way.  Oh no, 50,000BTC are going to be privately auctioned in a month, I better dump!  Hell, with the Mt. Gox coins we don't even know if they'll be sold off or returned, and when.  It certainly isn't going to be tomorrow or the next day.  

It's almost as if people forget that there are millions of BTC out there where even a marginal percentage could just show up on an exchange at any given time.

Market is more wise than any individual, it is the perfect voting system.

Whether you wanna admit it or not is your problem.

The fact is that we have confirmed increase in supply:

50k this month + 94k from SR auction.
200k from MtGox  
8k from Australian police

Show me evidence for increased demand (the reason I said 'Down' is because I still see buying pressure only from the usual suspects: speculators and funds, masses are not interested at all).

I don't have any official source or reliable stats to prove my statement, but I'm seeing more and more people around me getting interested in buying 'a afew of those bitcoins'. They all more or less come to me for advice since they know i've been following/speculuting (on) it for a while now.

In the last month I had 2 family members (seperately), 2 friends, a colleague and an aquintance contacting me about how/where to buy, whether it's a good time etc. Of those 6, 4 started buying recently (recommended them dollar averaging). The other 2 will probably follow soon. I'm aware that this is in no way reliable info, but it could implicate a reversal of the caring of the masses.

Then for official numbers; look at the buys of the BIT (bitcoin investment trust), the stats of local bitcoins and the growing activity on chinese exchanges. You could make the case for some momentum being build slowly. I believe the ground is fertile for another (maybe smallish) rally into the 5/6 hundies.

IMO/my guts says the rocket is slowly getting filled with fuel again, we now need something which ignites it. COIN / cyprus style situation (russia/china currency controls) / some other random bullish event for btc and things could start happening really fast.

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[jonoiv]

Chillax! It is not my fault you got your manhood broken by your mom and your sister.

Sorry, did I say I was a man?

[JorgeStolfi]

Statement by MtGOX's bankruptcy trustee about the agreement with Payward (Kraken's Japanese susidiary):
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20141126_announcement.pdf
(Dated 2014-11-27; English translation at the end.)

The role of Kraken will be substantially more modest than what the first news claimed.  No decision yet on whether the coins are to be distributed as coins, and whether Kraken will handle the distribution if they are.

[hdbuck]

Statement by MtGOX's bankruptcy trustee about the agreement with Payward (Kraken's Japanese susidiary):
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20141126_announcement.pdf
(Dated 2014-11-27; English translation at the end.)

The role of Kraken will be substantially more modest than what the first news claimed.  No decision yet on whether the coins are to be distributed as coins, and whether Kraken will handle the distribution if they are.

wow such shocker.. ^^

you are better of studying Chinese exchanges.

[Tzupy]

bulls are praying that tim draper buys them all again.

He is joining a syndicate this time.  So, probably, he does not intend to buy even a whole lot of 10'000 BTC.

He is probably not buying, but uses this for damage control. If he would stay out of the auction at currently much lower prices, he'd send a bearish signal.

[justusranvier]

I see you understand. Thankfully you understand all too well that the main point of all of this is that by suggesting a more civil tone towards any potential woman who may frequent this forum, it is you who are the victim. I just hope every woman who reads our little discussion understands that they should either post pictures of themselves in bikinis in the forum or pretend to be a guy, so that your fragile manhood stays intact.

I have a difficult time reconciling your apparent strong concern for civility and avoiding offense with your choice of name.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

A progress report by the MtGOX trustee on his actions since the previous meeting:
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20141126_document.pdf
(Dated 2014-11-26, translation at the end.)

Some highlights: Mark Karpelès and his other companies took over 10 million dollars in loans from MtGOX, the trustee is trying to get them to pay the loans.  The law says refund must be in yen but he is looking whether it is possible to return the bitcoins as bitcoins.  There are inconsistencies in the MtGOX records, which are being investigated.  He has control of ~202 kBTC so far.

[Omikifuse]

they never hacked into his computers, and whether or not they can follow them on the blockchain is irrelevant.

Perhaps I am mis-remembering about the hacking.  But, from day 0, the police can buy stuff on the site, pay in bitcoins, and follow them on the blockchain.  That tracing could reveal if there were other wallets beyond those that that they seized (~30'000 on the server and ~150'000 on his laptop). 

They can use mixers to avoid the tracking

[gotmilk_]

bulls are praying that tim draper buys them all again.

He is joining a syndicate this time.  So, probably, he does not intend to buy even a whole lot of 10'000 BTC.

Source?

[jonoiv]

Here's some nice flowers and kittens. For the ladies

Sexist Pig!!!

[Tzupy]

Here's some nice flowers and kittens. For the ladies

Not only for the ladies, they are adorable, thank you!

[Fatman3001]

I see you understand. Thankfully you understand all too well that the main point of all of this is that by suggesting a more civil tone towards any potential woman who may frequent this forum, it is you who are the victim. I just hope every woman who reads our little discussion understands that they should either post pictures of themselves in bikinis in the forum or pretend to be a guy, so that your fragile manhood stays intact.

I have a difficult time reconciling your apparent strong concern for civility and avoiding offense with your choice of name.

I am not extremely concerned with civility, but when it intentionally or unintentionally harms specific groups that already have a though enough time in society I would suggest that we stop and think. Not just jump on the defensive immediately to torpedo whoever raises concern about it.

Regarding the nick. It was my nick back when I was part of an Amiga Demo group in the early 90s. And although some japanese may take offense, I would advice them not to try taking over the world and slaughter over 20 million chinese and koreans. It was also a cartoon character and a game for the Amiga.

[NotLambchop]

A sexism thread?  Really?



Good morning gentlemen.  Haz we very stage 2 ignition?

[JorgeStolfi]

[Tim Draper] is joining a syndicate this time.  So, probably, he does not intend to buy even a whole lot of 10'000 BTC.

Source?

I thought that I posted it yesterday:
https://medium.com/@MirrorHQ/mirror-creates-syndicate-for-the-december-2014-usms-bitcoin-auction-45870def4f91

[JimboToronto]

[MrPiggles]

they never hacked into his computers, and whether or not they can follow them on the blockchain is irrelevant.

Perhaps I am mis-remembering about the hacking.  But, from day 0, the police can buy stuff on the site, pay in bitcoins, and follow them on the blockchain.  That tracing could reveal if there were other wallets beyond those that that they seized (~30'000 on the server and ~150'000 on his laptop). 

It's a good thing for law enforcement that no one ever invented a tumbler, or any other method to hide bitcoins eh

you fuckin spastic

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

they never hacked into his computers, and whether or not they can follow them on the blockchain is irrelevant.

Perhaps I am mis-remembering about the hacking.  But, from day 0, the police can buy stuff on the site, pay in bitcoins, and follow them on the blockchain.  That tracing could reveal if there were other wallets beyond those that that they seized (~30'000 on the server and ~150'000 on his laptop). 

It's a good thing for law enforcement that no one ever invented a tumbler, or any other method to hide bitcoins eh

If the cops had any brains they would set up a dozen fake tumbling services, with unbeatable fees and spiffy interfaces; and quietly close or co-opt the legitimate ones.  But fortunately they are nowhere as smart as the typical users of such services.

[oda.krell]

they never hacked into his computers, and whether or not they can follow them on the blockchain is irrelevant.

Perhaps I am mis-remembering about the hacking.  But, from day 0, the police can buy stuff on the site, pay in bitcoins, and follow them on the blockchain.  That tracing could reveal if there were other wallets beyond those that that they seized (~30'000 on the server and ~150'000 on his laptop). 

It's a good thing for law enforcement that no one ever invented a tumbler, or any other method to hide bitcoins eh

If the cops had any brains they would set up a dozen fake tumbling services, with unbeatable fees and spiffy interfaces; and quietly close or co-opt the legitimate ones.  But fortunately they are nowhere as smart as the typical users of such services.

There's ways to tumble that are, by social insights, unlikely to be honey pots. Yes, you read that right: places that an informed member of the community has reasons to trust are not set up s.t. that they are likely to allow tracking of a trail of coins. Use two or three of those in sequence, and you have pretty likely achieved the result you want: LE won't be able to track those coins back to you.*

The point is, coin tracking is the least of the concerns for LE. They have an entire database of customer names and addresses, in half of the cases, probably not encrypted, or in those cases where the data is encrypted, an arrangement can be made to present the key. I hope nobody trusts that anonymous drug dealer X is willing to spend an extra 2 years in jail to fulfill his libertarian duty of sticking it to the man.




* Yes, no need to tell me that this is ironic, because it goes completely against the idea of an algorithmic trustless solution.