Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[empowering]

Awesome, best use of Hitler yet

 

Zee Germans are coming   

[1714868402]

1714868402

[1714868402]

1714868402

[JorgeStolfi]

that is strong evidence that the Chinese exchanges were leading the Nov/2013 bubble, and quite probably also the Apr/2013 one. (Which, of course, has many unpleasant implications for the future price and the solidity of bitcoin funds.)

1) Plot based on meaningless volume from china based exchanges

No, those are PRICE ratios. Can't help if you can't understand them.  And the price of bitcoin may be vaguely on-topic here, I suppose.

Or this plot



that shows that the number of deposits per day into BitPay's receiving wallet was quite flat through most of 2014, and increased by a factor of ~3 since mid-2013; whereas this plot



shows that the bitcoin volume of those deposits has been constant at ~1000 BTC/day since Jan/2013.  (Explaining these numbers is not trivial, but they definitely contradict the claims of "booming adoption", and are consistent with may other indications that usage for e-payments is stagnant at best.)

2) Bitpay is the only company in the world dealing with bitcoin or did the inclusion of other data not yield the same output as desired by you?

Bitpay is still supposed to be the largest bitcoin payment processor, with over half of the total number of merchants that "accept bitcoin", including some of the biggest names like Dell.  If you know where I can get similar data for Coinbase, I (and other serious students of bitcoin out there) would like to know about it.  And, again, "increasing adoption" is claimed HERE all the time as one of the main reasons why the PRICE should start going up "any time now".

[empowering]

Fidor UK current status

"Send money = In development"

"Receive money = In development"

They just gave me a fiver though which is nice 

[dakota neat]

Jorge Stolfi, this is not how science works. You have to try to falsify your assumption that bitcoin will fail. So please focus on finding pro arguments why bitcoin is here to stay. Thanks.

[Fatman3001]

An amateurs glance at the chartists seems to indicate that this weekend will be exciting

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

No, those are PRICE ratios. Can't help if you can't understand them.  And the price of bitcoin may be vaguely on-topic here, I suppose.

While bitcoin is being boring very little here is on topic.

Regarding those charts I see they are from this blog post :
http://www.ofnumbers.com/2014/12/19/are-there-changes-in-the-volume-of-retail-transactions-through-bitpay-this-past-year/

You should probably also include this paragraph from the same blog post which shows that this data is inferred and not definite or published by Bitpay.  The analysis is only as good as the data and data which can be questioned should be posted with a disclaimer and not claimed to be 100% reliable.

The data for these plots comes from these pages that are claimed to show all transactions into the BitPay receiving wallet since it was created. However, the addresses that make up that “wallet” were inferred from the blockchain by an undisclosed heuristic that is supposed to identify addresses belonging to the same owner.

Link to the wallerexplorer site showing the raw assumed Bitpay transactions
https://www.walletexplorer.com/wallet/BitPay.com

Edit :
Basically if you're going to claim to do "serious data analysis" at least point out the reliability of the raw data and give proper credit to the creator of the charts.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Elwar]

Basically if you're going to claim to do "serious data analysis" at least point out the reliability of the raw data and give proper credit to the creator of the charts.

Modern scientists do not use raw data, they use editorialised data that supports their conclusion.

Just look at the global warming myth.

[Norway]

http://www.bloomberg.com/research/markets/news/article.asp?docKey=600-201504290300HUGIN___EUPRX____HUG1916185-1

XBT Provider Launches World's First Bitcoin Exchange Traded Note on Nasdaq Stockholm

This is awsome. They launch may 18.th.

[JorgeStolfi]

You should probably also include this paragraph from the same blog post which shows that this data is inferred and not definite or published by Bitpay.  [ ... ] Basically if you're going to claim to do "serious data analysis" at least point out the reliability of the raw data and give proper credit to the creator of the charts.

If you read carefully that blog post, you will learn who was the creator of those plots and the author of most of the text in it.

I don't recall whether I posted those plots on reddit or here or on both places, but that full explanation was attached to the plots at the time.

[Fatman3001]

Basically if you're going to claim to do "serious data analysis" at least point out the reliability of the raw data and give proper credit to the creator of the charts.

Modern scientists do not use raw data, they use editorialised data that supports their conclusion.

Just look at the global warming myth.

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

Basically if you're going to claim to do "serious data analysis" at least point out the reliability of the raw data and give proper credit to the creator of the charts.

Modern scientists do not use raw data, they use editorialised data that supports their conclusion.

Just look at the global warming myth.

Haha.... I nearly referenced the issue with temperature data but decided to stay away from it.

Besides, that data was deliberately manipulated.

Regarding my personal opinion I do believe in global warming.

[Godzillafacepalm]

Basically if you're going to claim to do "serious data analysis" at least point out the reliability of the raw data and give proper credit to the creator of the charts.

Modern scientists do not use raw data, they use editorialised data that supports their conclusion.

Just look at the global warming myth.

http://www.xbhp.com/talkies/attachments/motorcycle-ownership-experiences/167310d1419471234-ktm-rc-200-experience-thread-3801066-2.jpg

http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20120922215052/creepypasta/images/a/ab/Jesus_facepalm.jpg
http://img4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20141222232555/glee/images/1/11/Turbo_facepalm_by_specialvore-d69viv5.pnghttp://www.facepalm.su/wp-content/gallery/double-facepalm-1/quadruple_facepalm.jpg

http://cdn.funnyhub.com/2015/jan/facepalm/facepalm37.gif

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

You should probably also include this paragraph from the same blog post which shows that this data is inferred and not definite or published by Bitpay.  [ ... ] Basically if you're going to claim to do "serious data analysis" at least point out the reliability of the raw data and give proper credit to the creator of the charts.

If you read carefully that blog post, you will learn who was the creator of those plots and the author of most of the text in it.

I don't recall whether I posted those plots on reddit or here or on both places, but that full explanation was attached to the plots at the time.

At the bottom of the page is the text

This entry was posted in Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, E-commerce, Economics by Tim Swanson. Bookmark the permalink.

However I didn't check reddit and I can see there that you were the reddit author so fair enough

The raw data is still "inferred from the blockchain by an undisclosed heuristic that is supposed to identify addresses belonging to the same owner" so isn't reliable enough for "serious data analysis" (in my opinion at least).

Edit :  Where's my facepalm ? I'm sure it's deserved in part lol

[ensurance982]

http://www.bloomberg.com/research/markets/news/article.asp?docKey=600-201504290300HUGIN___EUPRX____HUG1916185-1

XBT Provider Launches World's First Bitcoin Exchange Traded Note on Nasdaq Stockholm

This is awsome. They launch may 18.th.

Has someone a short summary of how this is different to an ETF or other fund? I understand that Nasdaq Stockholm is some sort of Swedish subsidiary of the Nasdaq!? What are the exact implications of this and why are they able to get this running so rather quickly?

[gentlemand]

http://www.bloomberg.com/research/markets/news/article.asp?docKey=600-201504290300HUGIN___EUPRX____HUG1916185-1

XBT Provider Launches World's First Bitcoin Exchange Traded Note on Nasdaq Stockholm

This is awsome. They launch may 18.th.

Has someone a short summary of how this is different to an ETF or other fund? I understand that Nasdaq Stockholm is some sort of Swedish subsidiary of the Nasdaq!? What are the exact implications of this and why are they able to get this running so rather quickly?

It's an Exchange Traded Note.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etn.asp

So I think value depends on the credibility of the body who issued it. You're buying the promise of a coin from a third party.

[coinableS]

http://www.bloomberg.com/research/markets/news/article.asp?docKey=600-201504290300HUGIN___EUPRX____HUG1916185-1

XBT Provider Launches World's First Bitcoin Exchange Traded Note on Nasdaq Stockholm

This is awsome. They launch may 18.th.

This is very exciting, go Stockholm!
A lot of good news lately, prepare for the price to crash!

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Fatman3001]

Basically if you're going to claim to do "serious data analysis" at least point out the reliability of the raw data and give proper credit to the creator of the charts.

Modern scientists do not use raw data, they use editorialised data that supports their conclusion.

Just look at the global warming myth.

-snip-

Haha.... I nearly referenced the issue with temperature data but decided to stay away from it.

Besides, that data was deliberately manipulated.

Regarding my personal opinion I do believe in global warming.

I started writing something I realized I had written a thousand times before.

You can't fight confirmation bias.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

this plot



that shows that the number of deposits per day into BitPay's receiving wallet was quite flat through most of 2014, and increased by a factor of ~3 since mid-2013; whereas this plot



shows that the bitcoin volume of those deposits has been constant at ~1000 BTC/day since Jan/2013.  (Explaining these numbers is not trivial, but they definitely contradict the claims of "booming adoption", and are consistent with may other indications that usage for e-payments is stagnant at best.)

This sounds plausible to me.  I would say that a stagnant usage for e-payments is quite good given the >1 year bear market (with the resulting decrease of new blood).