Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Elwar]

GBTC opens for trading in 1 minute 

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[Peter R]

Jorge deliberately chooses to ignore the role of a bitcoin miner. That role is to distribute new coins and maintain network security. Moaning that miners get paid with the block reward and that this somehow makes bitcoin inefficient is stupid. It is a design choice...

This debate with Jorge reminds me of a piece I wrote in September:
===========================================

Of course miners selling coins affects the price.  If there's insufficient demand to absorb the new coin supply, then the price will fall until demand picks up.  This is bitcoin's distribution system doing what it's designed to do: distribute coins to those who value them.    

Bitcoin is a strategizing women that will use your lust to accomplish her goals.  It's your desire for wealth that precipitates the boom, and it's your hope and envy that fuels the accompanying media frenzy, propelling us another rung up the market-cap ladder.  And she knows this.  She also knows that in your despair you will sell your coins to those she hasn't dated yet, as though you're burning love notes from a women who broke your heart.      

She has nobler goals than to enrich you.  Although some of you will score and some of you will strike out, to her you were all only useful tools.  We're building a new decentralized economy that, if successful, will reshape the world in unfathomable ways.  She's the foundation of this new economy--sound money where each coin was forged by the greatest physical efforts of man to strangely produce a purely-digital asset…a digital asset that can be transferred in less than a second across the world without the permission of an authority or the assistance of a third party.  She is an evolution in money.    

Indeed the price must grow for the experiment to succeed, but it's more important that the price be the right price to best distribute coins to those who want them.  The issuance of new coins is what keeps downwards-pressure on the price, testing the faith of hodlers: "why are your coins so special if miners are finding new coins everyday?"  It prevents the price from deviating too far from true demand, as ruthless miners will put to rest the ambitions of lustful.  This is necessary.  We're all just playing out our roles.  

How will it end?  I don't know.  Tales of great ambition are fraught with great tragedy.  Only time will tell if she'll seduce her way to the very top.

[snowdropfore]

A single small event like GBTC trading at an ask above 300 could be the only trigger required to ignite the end of the bear market definitively. This could happen at any time.

GBTC opens for trading in 1 minute  

EDIT: And the 5k BTC bid was just put back.

EXCITING ，waiting！！！

[Elwar]

Those that complain about the miners selling their bitcoins are the same ones that put their heads in the sand when it comes to the halving next year.

If all of the miners are selling all of their bitcoins right now and we are maintaining a stable price even with that happening...

what happens when that $800,000 per day being converted to fiat is cut down to $400,000?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Indeed the price must grow for the experiment to succeed, but it's more important that the price be the right price to best distribute coins to those who want them.

I cannot possibly disagree with this statement, but the question is what is the "right" price. 

The bitcoin "business plan" would make a lot of sense if there was no speculation, and the price was determined only by its use as currency, according to the money velocity equation.  Then the price today would be 5 $/BTC or lower, any interested person could mine and get some coins (even at a loss), big money would not try to take over mining, people would not be pushing it on the "unbanked poor" or pestering Wikipedia and Mozilla to "accept it", no one would pay Bloomberg time to sell it, etc.  The user base would just grow naturally if/as people found it useful, and the price would slowly grow in proportion. 

But things obviously did not work that way, and the current "business plan" makes no sense, sorry. 

[Cassius]

I am staggered by the banality of the conclusion that capitalism is flawed.

[simmo77]

Hey Jorge. You spend a LOT of time on various fora discussing BitCoin. Must be like a full time job almost.

How can you afford to do that, plus make a living?

[minerpumpkin]

Those that complain about the miners selling their bitcoins are the same ones that put their heads in the sand when it comes to the halving next year.

If all of the miners are selling all of their bitcoins right now and we are maintaining a stable price even with that happening...

what happens when that $800,000 per day being converted to fiat is cut down to $400,000?

Yeah and they're not even selling all their coins! If they were, they wouldn't want to mine in the first place! I think the true price of mining a coin is at about maybe ~$100 at the moment - on average. So more than half of the coins remain. I don't think that miners are dumping all those coins on the market at spot price!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Hey Jorge. You spend a LOT of time on various fora discussing BitCoin. Must be like a full time job almost.

How can you afford to do that, plus make a living?

My question would be more - Why bother?

I dedicate my time to things I enjoy & have belief in.

[gentlemand]

Those that complain about the miners selling their bitcoins are the same ones that put their heads in the sand when it comes to the halving next year.

If all of the miners are selling all of their bitcoins right now and we are maintaining a stable price even with that happening...

what happens when that $800,000 per day being converted to fiat is cut down to $400,000?

Yeah and they're not even selling all their coins! If they were, they wouldn't want to mine in the first place! I think the true price of mining a coin is at about maybe ~$100 at the moment - on average. So more than half of the coins remain. I don't think that miners are dumping all those coins on the market at spot price!

There'll be no shortage of miners with off market deals set up. Everyone involved in the transaction wins.

[simmo77]

Hey Jorge. You spend a LOT of time on various fora discussing BitCoin. Must be like a full time job almost.

How can you afford to do that, plus make a living?

My question would be more - Why bother?

I dedicate my time to things I enjoy & have belief in.

My point exactly.

So why DOES he dedicate so much time to something he doesn't believe in?

[Elwar]

Hey Jorge. You spend a LOT of time on various fora discussing BitCoin. Must be like a full time job almost.

How can you afford to do that, plus make a living?

My question would be more - Why bother?

I dedicate my time to things I enjoy & have belief in.

My point exactly.

So why DOES he dedicate so much time to something he doesn't believe in?

I spend about half of my life on pro-socialist forums like hitlerpraise.com and stalinforums.com talking about how ridiculous they all are and that their ideal of everyone making the same pay for different levels of work will never succeed. I do it for the children.

[gentlemand]

My point exactly.

So why DOES he dedicate so much time to something he doesn't believe in?

This question pops up like clockwork every few weeks. We'll never know why. The dude just keeps on truckin' regardless. He'll outlive, and out type, us all.

[Elwar]

My point exactly.

So why DOES he dedicate so much time to something he doesn't believe in?

This question pops up like clockwork every few weeks. We'll never know why. The dude just keeps on truckin' regardless. He'll outlive, and out type, us all.

This has been answered.  He gets status points which can be redeemed for dinner party and conference invites.

It is a very competitive world to get such valuable points.

[hyphymikey]

Someone turn up the volume

[simmo77]

My point exactly.

So why DOES he dedicate so much time to something he doesn't believe in?

This question pops up like clockwork every few weeks. We'll never know why. The dude just keeps on truckin' regardless. He'll outlive, and out type, us all.

I'd like to hear Jorge answer it himself.

[JorgeStolfi]

So why DOES he dedicate so much time to something he doesn't believe in?

I spent on bitcoin about as much time as I spent following the cold fusion saga, in the late 1980s, which I did not believe in either.  Why is that strange?  There are people who devote a lot more time studying scams and religions that they don't believe in.  There are people who know all Start Trek episodes by heart, and of course they don't believe in them either.

I myself spent a lot more time studying the Voynich manuscript. Unlike many of my voynichologist colleagues, I do not think that it contains anything important (but i am convinced that it is not random text, either).

[JorgeStolfi]

He gets status points which can be redeemed for dinner party and conference invites.

I am afraid that the only conferences that would host presentantions about bitcoin are those organized by bitcoiners, who would never invite a critic, much less a hard skeptic. 

As for dinners, my dinner friends won't let me talk about bitcoin for more than 30 seconds each night.  And they are as surprised as you are that I be wasting so much time with this [ expletive deleted by self-censorship subroutine ].

[simmo77]

So why DOES he dedicate so much time to something he doesn't believe in?

I spent on bitcoin about as much time as I spent following the cold fusion saga, in the late 1980s, which I did not believe in either.  Why is that strange?  There are people who devote a lot more time studying scams and religions that they don't believe in.  There are people who know all Start Trek episodes by heart, and of course they don't believe in them either.

I myself spent a lot more time studying the Voynich manuscript. Unlike many of my voynichologist colleagues, I do not think that it contains anything important (but i am convinced that it is not random text, either).

Why is that strange? I guess because I lead a very busy life. I run a business (nothing to do with crypto).

I'm lucky to have 1-2 hours a day (including weekends) to devote to frivolous endeavours. I guess I'm just surprised that you, with your position and credentials, have so much time to devote to BitCoin.

Sounds like you need a better hobby.