Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[minerpumpkin]

Aww, what's happening now... Let's just hope that we'll form a double-bottom on the short-term support line that's been established over the last few days and bounce right back into the $240s... I don't feel comfortable leaving this uptrend-channel

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[macsga]

Lets see what happens.

Either bitcoin is very underpriced or GBTC users are happy to pay a heavy premium.

Dumping into the opening on a Chinese exchange shows the degree of desperation from bears - yes you will have to cover your positions

Both are true.  GBTC is the only option for some classes of funds (so heavy premium), and bitcoin is underpriced.  This is a decent arbitrage opportunity.

If someone is really serious about buying BTC, I bet they would be able to buy them on a regular exchange or from some mining company in bulk, even if they preferred an ETF. I know about the advantages and ease of use for people who are already active in that sector, but I don't know if this really warrants a markup of over 55%... This is quite steep!

There's a weird chicken-and-egg thing here. Could be wrong, buuuut:

a) Assessed market value without publicly tradable funds: $238.82.
b) Assessed market value WITH publicly tradable funds: $420.00 ($42 sale price of GBTC x 10 shares = 1 BTC)

As soon as the orders placed COULD become filled, the market shifted from a) to b), revaluating it.

That is the most optimistic explanation.

We're in one of those rare instances where supply or demand is severely pinched. Most actors don't know how to respond...until a trend emerges.
Success is far from guaranteed here, but this day ACTUALLY coming can't hurt the bullish scenario in my view.

The key IMHO is on the red lined text. I consider the GBTC the first "crystal clear" way for someone to get BTCs and not worrying about losing their money. This would take others to imitate or get passed by by businesses/initiatives like this. I've yelled much too long about the "dark" non-ledgered bitcoin transactions on almost ALL of the exchanges.

This has to end. The price will definitely find its way - thats how free market works. For the 1st time, I'm happy an "exchange" is starting its business.

[Sitarow]

Lets see what happens.

Either bitcoin is very underpriced or GBTC users are happy to pay a heavy premium.

Dumping into the opening on a Chinese exchange shows the degree of desperation from bears - yes you will have to cover your positions

Both are true.  GBTC is the only option for some classes of funds (so heavy premium), and bitcoin is underpriced.  This is a decent arbitrage opportunity.

If someone is really serious about buying BTC, I bet they would be able to buy them on a regular exchange or from some mining company in bulk, even if they preferred an ETF. I know about the advantages and ease of use for people who are already active in that sector, but I don't know if this really warrants a markup of over 55%... This is quite steep!

There's a weird chicken-and-egg thing here. Could be wrong, buuuut:

a) Assessed market value without publicly tradable funds: $238.82.
b) Assessed market value WITH publicly tradable funds: $420.00 ($42 sale price of GBTC x 10 shares = 1 BTC)

As soon as the orders placed COULD become filled, the market shifted from a) to b), revaluating it.

That is the most optimistic explanation.

We're in one of those rare instances where supply or demand is severely pinched. Most actors don't know how to respond...until a trend emerges.
Success is far from guaranteed here, but this day ACTUALLY coming can't hurt the bullish scenario in my view.

The key IMHO is on the red lined text. I consider the GBTC the first "crystal clear" way for someone to get BTCs and not worrying about losing their money. This would take others to imitate or get passed by by businesses/initiatives like this. I've yelled much too long about the "dark" non-ledgered bitcoin transactions on almost ALL of the exchanges.

This has to end. The price will definitely find its way - thats how free market works. For the 1st time, I'm happy an "exchange" is starting its business.

The BIT skipped the lengthy SEC registration process by taking a shortcut approved by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).

Without SEC registration, the BIT can’t formally be considered as an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), but other funds are seeking SEC approval for listing on the NYSE or Nasdaq.

The Winklevoss twins are planning a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF, which will be available to investors on NASDAQ with the ticker COIN.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/19760/bitcoin-investment-trust-bit-goes-live-ticker-gbtc/

[bassclef]

Aww, what's happening now... Let's just hope that we'll form a double-bottom on the short-term support line that's been established over the last few days and bounce right back into the $240s... I don't feel comfortable leaving this uptrend-channel

It's a probing bot that pushes the market down on low volume to absorb selling, catch stops, etc. It puts big hidden orders right above the market so the price can't move up, market sells a bit to make the amateur traders nervous, catches what it can of the selling, then reverses. Very clever.

[hdbuck]

so? where my GBTC pump?

[inca]

so? where my GBTC pump?

Where are your shorting colleagues?

[atlosas]

Aww, what's happening now... Let's just hope that we'll form a double-bottom on the short-term support line that's been established over the last few days and bounce right back into the $240s... I don't feel comfortable leaving this uptrend-channel

It's a probing bot that pushes the market down on low volume to absorb selling, catch stops, etc. It puts big hidden orders right above the market so the price can't move up, market sells a bit to make the amateur traders nervous, catches what it can of the selling, then reverses. Very clever.

Or markets test the resistance at 243, it doesn't break, so it pulls back. No conspiracy

[bassclef]

Aww, what's happening now... Let's just hope that we'll form a double-bottom on the short-term support line that's been established over the last few days and bounce right back into the $240s... I don't feel comfortable leaving this uptrend-channel

It's a probing bot that pushes the market down on low volume to absorb selling, catch stops, etc. It puts big hidden orders right above the market so the price can't move up, market sells a bit to make the amateur traders nervous, catches what it can of the selling, then reverses. Very clever.

Or markets test the resistance at 243, it doesn't break, so it pulls back. No conspiracy

The hidden walls give it away. I've seen "it" at work at least a dozen times. No conspiracy, just clever traders taking advantage.

[inca]

Aww, what's happening now... Let's just hope that we'll form a double-bottom on the short-term support line that's been established over the last few days and bounce right back into the $240s... I don't feel comfortable leaving this uptrend-channel

It's a probing bot that pushes the market down on low volume to absorb selling, catch stops, etc. It puts big hidden orders right above the market so the price can't move up, market sells a bit to make the amateur traders nervous, catches what it can of the selling, then reverses. Very clever.

Or markets test the resistance at 243, it doesn't break, so it pulls back. No conspiracy

Someone dumping the price lower isn't quite the same as 'it doesn't break'. But if the tape is painted it is still the tape!

[Norway]

Wow, just came home and discovered GBTC trading! Cool!
And remember may 18th. The date when bitcoin trading starts at Nasdaq Stockholm!

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[minerpumpkin]

Aww, what's happening now... Let's just hope that we'll form a double-bottom on the short-term support line that's been established over the last few days and bounce right back into the $240s... I don't feel comfortable leaving this uptrend-channel

It's a probing bot that pushes the market down on low volume to absorb selling, catch stops, etc. It puts big hidden orders right above the market so the price can't move up, market sells a bit to make the amateur traders nervous, catches what it can of the selling, then reverses. Very clever.

Huh, highly interesting! Is that also the reason why BitFinex's orderbook seems to be broken on Bitcoinwisdom? It seems to shift every 5 seconds or so... What's up with that? Also, does this mean the price is going to break back up in an hour or so?

[Peter R]

Tim Swanson thinks transactions cost 25 BTC divided by the number of transactions in a block. That's a complete misunderstanding of not just what the block reward does but of what Bitcoin even is. He has gathered some interesting data, but his analysis is unlikely to be of much use as he has no fundamental understanding of Bitcoin in the first place.

…

Right now, that entity gets 25 BTC (~6000 USD) for each validated block, and the average block contains 750 transactions.  So the miners are being paid ~8 USD for each transaction that they process, on average.

In percentage terms, the transactions in a block move about 280'000 USD, on average (excluding presumed "return change" outputs); so the miners' revenue is about 2% of the money that they move.

There is not much room for misunderstanding there.  Right now,  the bitcoin network is way too expensive for the service that it renders.

...

This inspired me to produce a historical chart of "miners' revenue as a percentage of the money they move."  Not unexpectedly, this percentage is decreasing as the number of transactions per day increases.  

Does this mean that the network becomes more cost-effective to operate as it grows?  

[sniveling]

Aww, what's happening now... Let's just hope that we'll form a double-bottom on the short-term support line that's been established over the last few days and bounce right back into the $240s... I don't feel comfortable leaving this uptrend-channel

It's a probing bot that pushes the market down on low volume to absorb selling, catch stops, etc. It puts big hidden orders right above the market so the price can't move up, market sells a bit to make the amateur traders nervous, catches what it can of the selling, then reverses. Very clever.

Huh, highly interesting! Is that also the reason why BitFinex's orderbook seems to be broken on Bitcoinwisdom? It seems to shift every 5 seconds or so... What's up with that? Also, does this mean the price is going to break back up in an hour or so?

It's working on Bitcoinity, so I doubt that's the reason for any Bitcoinwisdom problems.

[Alley]

Ask wall on stamp is gone.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

http://organofcorti.blogspot.ch/2015/05/may-3rd-2015-network-statistics.html

[minerpumpkin]

Aww, what's happening now... Let's just hope that we'll form a double-bottom on the short-term support line that's been established over the last few days and bounce right back into the $240s... I don't feel comfortable leaving this uptrend-channel

It's a probing bot that pushes the market down on low volume to absorb selling, catch stops, etc. It puts big hidden orders right above the market so the price can't move up, market sells a bit to make the amateur traders nervous, catches what it can of the selling, then reverses. Very clever.

Huh, highly interesting! Is that also the reason why BitFinex's orderbook seems to be broken on Bitcoinwisdom? It seems to shift every 5 seconds or so... What's up with that? Also, does this mean the price is going to break back up in an hour or so?

It's working on Bitcoinity, so I doubt that's the reason for any Bitcoinwisdom problems.

Well, Bitcoinity is screwing up their depth graph so often that maybe a potential glitch in Finex's API is counteracting Bitcoinity's depth-graph glitches?  *scnr*

[derpinheimer]

...
Does this mean that the network becomes more cost-effective to operate as it grows?  
...

It means that the network is becoming cheaper to attack, basically. Satoshi was working from the assumption that the cost of mining will approach the price of the coins mined. If the TX fees don't increase substantially when block reward is halved, interesting stuff will happen: Hangers full of mining gear will suddenly become unprofitable to mine with -> available dirt-cheap for more creative use, like 51% attack.

Doesn't this seem like fearmongering? In a year, who knows what these charts will be showing..

Worrying about mining being unprofitable in a years time is silly.

[Peter R]

...
Does this mean that the network becomes more cost-effective to operate as it grows?  
...

It means that the network is becoming cheaper to attack, basically. Satoshi was working from the assumption that the cost of mining will approach the price of the coins mined. If the TX fees don't increase substantially when block reward is halved, interesting stuff will happen: Hangers full of mining gear will suddenly become unprofitable to mine with -> available dirt-cheap for more creative use, like 51% attack.

No.  Total fees paid to miners tend to increase as the number of transactions per day increases.



Thus it would seem that the network simultaneously grows both stronger and more cost-effective as the number of transactions per day increases.

[Elwar]

...
Does this mean that the network becomes more cost-effective to operate as it grows?  
...

It means that the network is becoming cheaper to attack, basically. Satoshi was working from the assumption that the cost of mining will approach the price of the coins mined. If the TX fees don't increase substantially when block reward is halved, interesting stuff will happen: Hangers full of mining gear will suddenly become unprofitable to mine with -> available dirt-cheap for more creative use, like 51% attack.

Doesn't this seem like fearmongering? In a year, who knows what these charts will be showing..

Worrying about mining being unprofitable in a years time is silly.

We heard the same stuff before the first halving. Miners would stop and the difficulty would be so difficult that it would never adjust, blocks would take years to complete.

It was all true. Bitcoin ended that day. The bears won.