Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dilla]

Not 100% sure we aren't going to $305 again lol. Kind of pathetic after that massive drop we aren't $320+

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[riils]

any geniuses left to dump it to 305 once more?

The real geniuses are those who think that price will go up for no reason.

After the break at 500, it was almost obvious that price will return to mean - 250 or so.

[marcus_of_augustus]

... and just like that all the mainstream media bitcoin-pump articles stopped, like magic.

Price-perception manipulation, TA analysis tool price-targetting, HFT, leveraged derivatives, say hello to Wall St. guys this is what you asked for.

I know people like to conceptualize the swings as "pump and dumps", but reality is probably a bit more complex, and, yes, professional algorithmic trading likely plays a large part in this.

Not sure that's a bad thing though, per se: it makes (private, "retail") trading more challenging, though not impossible, but that's a sign of a maturing market as well, isn't it? The uncontested "bubble run-ups" (that went on for weeks or months) are maybe a thing of the past then, but again: how is that bad? The market is evolving, and that is (imo) more exciting than depressing.

anything that smells like a rigged market with incredibly volatile moves that  only benefit the rich and powerful is dead on arrival for mainstreet ... maybe that's exactly what Wall St. wants with bitcoin (same as they did with gold and silver)?

[adamstgBit]

any geniuses left to dump it to 305 once more?

The real geniuses are those who think that price will go up for no reason.

After the break at 500, it was almost obvious that price will return to mean - 250 or so.

10 geniuses  vs half a million retards.

it's going to be interesting.

[bambou]

... and just like that all the mainstream media bitcoin-pump articles stopped, like magic.

Price-perception manipulation, TA analysis tool price-targetting, HFT, leveraged derivatives, say hello to Wall St. guys this is what you asked for.

I know people like to conceptualize the swings as "pump and dumps", but reality is probably a bit more complex, and, yes, professional algorithmic trading likely plays a large part in this.

Not sure that's a bad thing though, per se: it makes (private, "retail") trading more challenging, though not impossible, but that's a sign of a maturing market as well, isn't it? The uncontested "bubble run-ups" (that went on for weeks or months) are maybe a thing of the past then, but again: how is that bad? The market is evolving, and that is (imo) more exciting than depressing.

anything that smells like a rigged market with incredibly volatile moves that  only benefit the rich and powerful is dead on arrival for mainstreet ... maybe that's exactly what Wall St. wants with bitcoin (same as they did with gold and silver)?

Let the financial crisis come, bails in and out, neg interest rates, credit bubbles pop and domestic markets collapse.

Cheap cheap BTC incoming.

Thx WS.

[AmazonStuff]

Wow, that Bitstamp ask wall got even bigger

EDIT: This wall is doing push-ups, 1500, 2500, 1000, 2000, 1500 (in BTC volume)

[Stringer Bell]

anything that smells like a rigged market with incredibly volatile moves that  only benefit the rich and powerful is dead on arrival for mainstreet ... maybe that's exactly what Wall St. wants with bitcoin (same as they did with gold and silver)?

And Blythe has shown up fairly recently. I've been thinking about this too lately. It's a system with unlimited resources, and BTC is a direct threat to their way of life. Expect them to go after it any way they can, similar to the way gold and silver are kept 'in check'. Doesn't mean it can't be won, just that it's a battle.

[noobtrader]

any geniuses left to dump it to 305 once more?

that was a nice bear trap... 

[adamstgBit]

[marcus_of_augustus]

... and just like that all the mainstream media bitcoin-pump articles stopped, like magic.

Price-perception manipulation, TA analysis tool price-targetting, HFT, leveraged derivatives, say hello to Wall St. guys this is what you asked for.

I know people like to conceptualize the swings as "pump and dumps", but reality is probably a bit more complex, and, yes, professional algorithmic trading likely plays a large part in this.

Not sure that's a bad thing though, per se: it makes (private, "retail") trading more challenging, though not impossible, but that's a sign of a maturing market as well, isn't it? The uncontested "bubble run-ups" (that went on for weeks or months) are maybe a thing of the past then, but again: how is that bad? The market is evolving, and that is (imo) more exciting than depressing.

anything that smells like a rigged market with incredibly volatile moves that  only benefit the rich and powerful is dead on arrival for mainstreet ... maybe that's exactly what Wall St. wants with bitcoin (same as they did with gold and silver)?

Let the financial crisis come, bails in and out, neg interest rates, credit bubbles pop and domestic markets collapse.

Now is a great time to catch some cheap BTC.

Thx WS.

there will be no more financial crises, only endless stagnation into a slow-march-downwards economic decline, not unlike Soviet or socialist economies (for basically the same reasons). The central banks have essentially nationalised the entire global credit markets and are socialising the massive risks/losses onto the national currencies. No collapse, just endless decline (in real terms).

[oda.krell]

... and just like that all the mainstream media bitcoin-pump articles stopped, like magic.

Price-perception manipulation, TA analysis tool price-targetting, HFT, leveraged derivatives, say hello to Wall St. guys this is what you asked for.

I know people like to conceptualize the swings as "pump and dumps", but reality is probably a bit more complex, and, yes, professional algorithmic trading likely plays a large part in this.

Not sure that's a bad thing though, per se: it makes (private, "retail") trading more challenging, though not impossible, but that's a sign of a maturing market as well, isn't it? The uncontested "bubble run-ups" (that went on for weeks or months) are maybe a thing of the past then, but again: how is that bad? The market is evolving, and that is (imo) more exciting than depressing.

anything that smells like a rigged market with incredibly volatile moves that  only benefit the rich and powerful is dead on arrival for mainstreet ... maybe that's exactly what Wall St. wants with bitcoin (same as they did with gold and silver)?

I guess that depends on your broader goals and ideas what the market should look like. When I look at gold, I see it up by more than 100% from 10 years ago, more than the S&P in the same period in fact, which is impressive, considering the monetary incentives given by most Western developed economies. But perhaps our definitions of 'rigged' differ here.

[riils]

any geniuses left to dump it to 305 once more?

that was a nice bear trap... 

Exactly. All the price movement after bitcoin reached 1000$ is just one big beartrap lol.

[oda.krell]

If the Cumberland Mining rumor is true, this is even bigger [HFT] kids coming to play in our sandbox, with shitloads of ammo. 'Luck competing with that. In an unregulated market.
[Bitcoin traders as closet masochists theory redacted]

The lack of regulation in our market is probably offset by the higher professionalization of trading in other, more mature markets. So, retail traders in any market are borderline masochists, I'd say. It's as if you were allowed to sign up for a world championship-level poker tournament after you've played poker for a while against your friends. Still, there's only one way to find out if you can beat the market or not, and that is by giving it a try (preferably with a bit of an idea of money management beforehand), no?

[bambou]

If the Cumberland Mining rumor is true, this is even bigger [HFT] kids coming to play in our sandbox, with shitloads of ammo. 'Luck competing with that. In an unregulated market.
[Bitcoin traders as closet masochists theory redacted]

The lack of regulation in our market is probably offset by the higher professionalization of trading in other, more mature markets. So, retail traders in any market are borderline masochists, I'd say. It's as if you were allowed to sign up for a world championship-level poker tournament after you've played poker for a while against your friends. Still, there's only one way to find out if you can beat the market or not, and that is by giving it a try (preferably with a bit of an idea of money management beforehand), no?

Prices set by these exchanges have always been manipulated, whether by inhouse operators, loaded early adopters or now HFT sharks.

It does not mean such prices are relevant in the first place.

14m btc x 1/2 Exahash would give us an invaluable bitcoin already.

[adamstgBit]

poeple all round the world now pulling out their calculator, first calculating how many bitcoin they will have when they buy back at 295 and then calculating how much money that will bring them next year.


... not quite milliaire at 4000$, but if you sell it all now and buy back at 285, ah ha!

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[noobtrader]

any geniuses left to dump it to 305 once more?

that was a nice bear trap... 

Exactly. All the price movement after bitcoin reached 1000$ is just one big beartrap lol.

you only trapped after you admit that you were trapped 

[marcus_of_augustus]

it is remarkable to see how easily they can get "esteemed" publications like WSJ, Bloomberg and The Economist to dance around like town-cryers, in unison, for the pump 'n dump turning bitcoin into little more than yet another chop stock. Securities fraud is still securities fraud however, no matter how high the corruption runs.

[oda.krell]

If the Cumberland Mining rumor is true, this is even bigger [HFT] kids coming to play in our sandbox, with shitloads of ammo. 'Luck competing with that. In an unregulated market.
[Bitcoin traders as closet masochists theory redacted]

The lack of regulation in our market is probably offset by the higher professionalization of trading in other, more mature markets. So, retail traders in any market are borderline masochists, I'd say. It's as if you were allowed to sign up for a world championship-level poker tournament after you've played poker for a while against your friends. Still, there's only one way to find out if you can beat the market or not, and that is by giving it a try (preferably with a bit of an idea of money management beforehand), no?

You're right about small traders being outclassed in regular markets, in general. That's partially why sophisticated investor requirements exist.
As far as "find out if you can beat the market," I'm not going to try winning from players who play with marked decks (what regulation, ideally, trys to prevent).
Just not my thing, I got other bad habits.

Fair enough.

I'll add though that I don't buy the binary "rigged vs. non-rigged" and "investor vs. trader" distinction that seems to underlie a lot of arguments on whether you should trade or not. "Rigged/non-rigged" is just a way of expressing an information advantage of one group over another (a gap which exists in every market, though perhaps more in some markets than in others), and the "investor/trader" distinction is just a matter of the predictive horizon of the market participant, in my view..

In other words, one can absolutely conclude that the particular set up of likely knowledge gaps (probably rather high in here) and short-term prediction ability (not extremely high maybe, but improving) in this market is unfavorable for personal attempts at trading. That said, there are plenty of people who see the same parameters and conclude it is worth it.

[bambou]

it is remarkable to see how easily they can get "esteemed" publications like WSJ, Bloomberg and The Economist to dance around like town-cryers, in unison, for the pump 'n dump turning bitcoin into little more than yet another chop stock. Securities fraud is still securities fraud however, no matter how high the corruption runs.

Bitcoin is not some securities.
You'd still be in full control of the ones you own.
21m cap and high network security is the deal, the rest is noise so just let the maniacs do what they always do.