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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26371384 times)
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Blazin8888
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November 10, 2015, 11:15:32 AM

MICROSOFT + BLOCKCHAIN: https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/ethereum-blockchain-as-a-service-now-on-azure/
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Hyperjacked
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November 10, 2015, 11:16:40 AM

just tweeted @ohyperjacked

Gotta love the BB tightening... Shocked Shocked Shocked Cool

Explosive moves when you turn on the power washer! But what will be the pressure release valve limit!

cheers and good day  Cheesy
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November 10, 2015, 11:35:58 AM





good luck trading against xu mom. they wiped them out two times.
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November 10, 2015, 11:42:33 AM


Woo hoo! Blockchain blockchain blockchain!!!
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November 10, 2015, 11:52:49 AM


so basically yes, hedge funds and HFT companies are in...


[...]


Quote
Up until now the Bitcoin markets & trading-sphere have largely been an outworld where legacy HFT firms could not dare enter -- they were instead left sidelined to peer through the murky ether at an untapped virgin goddess with her large bid/ask spreads and fragmentation. These aligning characteristics has caused a growing restlessness and salivating for the potential profits of "tapping that".

Enter the recent AlphaPoint integration into BitFinex's backend and one of the final pieces for institutional order flow to enter the Bitcoin trading ecosystem is near complete -- although this may not be in the form of hopium bitcoin believers perceive as "Wall Street getting in" -- more on that later

Here is the latest release:

http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2015/04/28/729278/0/en/Bitfinex-Completes-AlphaPoint-Integration.html

TLDR: The most significant point I took away from this is the ability to interact with BFX through the FIX protocol -- "FIX has become the de facto messaging standard for pre-trade and trade communication in the global equity markets, and is expanding into the post-trade space to support straight through as well as continuing to expand into FX, fixed income and derivatives markets." FIX is essentially the backbone of modern financial interactions between broker-dealer and hedge fund communications to the exchanges. OKCoin has had FIX enabled for some time now and it was announced on our very own Google Hangout that a EURO based hedge fund was utilizing their platform -- enter the well known 20x OKC "woodchipper" and I will allow you to draw your own conclusions on that matter. (http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2m04s4/okcoin_rep_says_a_new_hedge_fund_controlling_3/)

It has also become public that the specific HFT firms DRW Trading Group and Citadel have taken steps to enter the crypto space(http://www.wsj.com/articles/big-investor-involvement-could-boost-bitcoin-1428259814 ). This is not only apparent in DRW's presence at the latest Inside Bitcoins NYC conference speaking privately to both OKCoin and BFX but also their large winning of the DPR coins at the last auction via their subsidiary Cumberland Mining -- all signs pointing toward a large and active presence for DRW in the BTC markets.

Benjamin's Big Short & the DRW Connection

Another page out of the BTC trading folklore is the larger than life character known by the handle Benjamin(http://tradingview.com/u/Benjamin%20/  ) on TradingView and sporting his Uncle Ben's Rice avatar -- many await his appearance like a Lock Ness Monster sighting in TradingView Chat or TeamSpeak. In early January his 3 person team borrowed 50,000 BTC to short bitcoin sub $200 -- he announced on TeamSpeak that his team was originally planning on borrowing these coins from a chinese connection but ended up going through a London hedge fund -- I give you DRW Trading Group's London office.

Many of the myoptic minded bitcoiners quibbled that why would a hedge fund allow someone to borrow coins for the purpose of shorting -- only to return them with significantly less value at a future date. Regardless if DRW was hedging off the risk before hand they would be charging a fair amount of interest fees on that amount of borrowed coins but the MOST interesting "coincidence" was the backdrop of the looming DPR auction. An auction in which Cumberland Mining scooped up an additional 27,000 BTC adding to their inventory and reducing their cost basis. The question remains if they are still looking to acquire in the next auction and I will stop short of speculating whether they are.

[I was actually debating whether to exclude this portion entirely as I thought it would distract from the real substance of what I was getting at knowing well that /r/bitcoinmarkets likes to devolve into /r/conspiracytheory very quickly. It is just really something to ponder of all the pieces involving DRW/Cumberland Mining]

The Changing Retail Trader Landscape

I do not want to go into the minutia of the Auction details itself and the Cumberland Mining mystery as I think the Coindesk article(http://www.coindesk.com/secretive-mining-firm-revealed-as-possible-us-marshals-auction-winner/ ) does a great job of divining into topic for those interested. What I do want to focus on is the consequences to bitcoin retail trading going forward with these new players stepping in.

What these funds are doing is engaging in is mainly market making and advanced algorithmic trading where they simply see BTC as part of their asset inventory to feed off of the supple virgin order flow that has been inaccessible until now. BTC is a new speculative asset class and they see the price of BTC only as a cost basis and are not necessarily interested in its direct appreciation as an investment vehicle. With that said active retail traders may find that their strategies stop working and can & will be used against them. As Sang Lucci says pertaining to the listed space any retail strategy that can be algorithm-itised has been and will be soon enough into Bitcoin as well.

Largely, I believe that this is a necessarily step towards seeing the institutional (portfolio style) money come in that the bitcoin believers have been ranting about for so long. But to be perfectly clear these HFT/algo hedge funds make their money on the order flow not the fundamental appreciation of the underlying security -- however -- they may not be mutually exclusive but it is important to make this distinction as I believe it is often conflated and misrepresented as overtly bullish.


https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/351le4/bitcoins_virginity_benjamins_big_short_the_drw/

This is likely to be the best post on trading proper that I've read in here this year. Thanks a lot for bringing it to our attention.
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November 10, 2015, 12:07:20 PM

Coin

Explanation
ghandi
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November 10, 2015, 12:13:36 PM





good luck trading against xu mom. they wiped them out two times.


Repetive pattern looks like some trouble with the trading engine. Wink
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November 10, 2015, 12:30:40 PM

Anyone with a bit of a deeper network and cryptography knowledge care to comment on this technical proposal:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bitcoin-ng-or-how-cornell-researchers-think-a-radical-redesign-can-solve-bitcoin-s-scaling-issues-1447108649

Basic idea seems to be to decouple proof of work blocks from transactions blocks (while keeping the two connected, obviously), without the usual trade off that means more tx -> bigger blocks.

Looks plausible to me, and actually a lot less "radical" than, say, turning Bitcoin into a proof-of-stake system. That said, I don't have sufficient technical knowledge to judge if it only appears plausible at a glance or if there's a catch I don't see right now.

(... he asked on the Wall Observer thread, thinking "What could possibly go wrong?")

This looks like an interesting idea which seems to both address the transaction limit concerns voiced by large blockers and the mining centralization due to slow propagation of large blocks feared by small blockers. It might open up new attack vectors though. First thought which comes to my mind is that if the miner currently responsible for verifying transactions goes offline/something happens to them, do we get a delay in transaction confirmations until the next block is mined? If so this would open the door to an attack where you would just DDOS or otherwise incapacitate the miner and the network grinds to a halt. Such centralization, very scare. Also what happens if the miner decides to double-spend transactions worth more than the coinbase reward + transaction fees combined? As far as I can tell the only punishment seems to be that their block rewards gets taken away retroactively by the network. Also what happens to such a reward afterwards? Wouldn't that mess with Bitcoins steady predictable inflation rate? So many questions...

That's the kind of input I was hoping for...


Quote
First thought which comes to my mind is that if the miner currently responsible for verifying transactions goes offline/something happens to them, do we get a delay in transaction confirmations until the next block is mined? If so this would open the door to an attack where you would just DDOS or otherwise incapacitate the miner and the network grinds to a halt. Such centralization, very scare.

The difference to the current situation is that you'd only need to incapacitate a fraction of total hash power, in contrast to the global attack you'd need to launch now to achieve the same. Correct?

Is there a time delay how long it takes to "direct" your DDOS attacks? As in: once you've learned who holds the key for the current micro block period, you have exactly 10 minutes to perform a targeted attack. Is that enough, given the constraints of practically applicable DDOS attack scenarios we know?


Quote
Also what happens if the miner decides to double-spend transactions worth more than the coinbase reward + transaction fees combined? As far as I can tell the only punishment seems to be that their block rewards gets taken away retroactively by the network. Also what happens to such a reward afterwards? Wouldn't that mess with Bitcoins steady predictable inflation rate? So many questions...

I don't consider this one so problematic, for two reasons:

(1) There's a strong economic disincentive to do so for global utility reasons, even if locally, it might make economic sense. The only entities (pools, presumably) likely to pull off such an attack are the big holders of hash power anyway. A double spend exceeding reward+fees would be worth it locally, i.e. they'd gain more (txs value) than they'd lose (reward+fees), but they would almost certainly suffer a much greater loss globablly due to (a) lower value of any rewards+fees gained in the future because of negative market reaction to the "inside" attack, and (b) sharp disappreciation of their (sunk) hardware cost, caused by the same mechanism as in (a).

(Aside: I've used a similar argument a few times as criticism of the (imo economically naive) attack scenarios described by Emin Gün Sirer. He correctly describes a positive "local" incentive to cheat given mining centralization, but doesn't properly account for the "global" economic consequences for the cheating entity.)

That said, even if you would in principle agree with my global vs. local utility argument, there's likely a limit to it, i.e. if you manage to cheat the network out of enough coins that you'd be able to sell fast enough before the market reacts, the attack could be worth it. Which leads to my next point:

(2) Waiting for confirmation (just 10 minutes) or several confirmations if large values are at stake is already recommended now. We're only describing successful cheating in case of the recipient accepting 0-conf txs anyway, right? In that case, there's an upper limit to the actual damage caused anyway, since the network only allows us to see no. of confirmations (and, after the fact) possible double spends, but tx acceptance is a decision process outside the network, and it is almost guaranteed that the actually ("externally") accepted volume per block is strictly smaller than the total volume per block.
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November 10, 2015, 12:37:17 PM

Anyone with a bit of a deeper network and cryptography knowledge care to comment on this technical proposal:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bitcoin-ng-or-how-cornell-researchers-think-a-radical-redesign-can-solve-bitcoin-s-scaling-issues-1447108649

Basic idea seems to be to decouple proof of work blocks from transactions blocks (while keeping the two connected, obviously), without the usual trade off that means more tx -> bigger blocks.

Looks plausible to me, and actually a lot less "radical" than, say, turning Bitcoin into a proof-of-stake system. That said, I don't have sufficient technical knowledge to judge if it only appears plausible at a glance or if there's a catch I don't see right now.

(... he asked on the Wall Observer thread, thinking "What could possibly go wrong?")

Sounds juicy and coherent
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November 10, 2015, 12:37:50 PM




good luck trading against xu mom. they wiped them out two times.


Repetive pattern looks like some trouble with the trading engine. Wink


no, people cashed in on that crash, and okponzi is trying to block those accounts.
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November 10, 2015, 12:38:51 PM
Last edit: November 12, 2015, 10:54:28 AM by Fatman3001

Anyone with a bit of a deeper network and cryptography knowledge care to comment on this technical proposal:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bitcoin-ng-or-how-cornell-researchers-think-a-radical-redesign-can-solve-bitcoin-s-scaling-issues-1447108649

Basic idea seems to be to decouple proof of work blocks from transactions blocks (while keeping the two connected, obviously), without the usual trade off that means more tx -> bigger blocks.

Looks plausible to me, and actually a lot less "radical" than, say, turning Bitcoin into a proof-of-stake system. That said, I don't have sufficient technical knowledge to judge if it only appears plausible at a glance or if there's a catch I don't see right now.

(... he asked on the Wall Observer thread, thinking "What could possibly go wrong?")

This is an idiots (that is me) take on it:

It addresses mining centralization. But mining centralization is sort of a lost cause because of the economics of mining. And sort of not a problem because of the economics of it. Mining will go the areas with the cheapest electricity, globally. Sending work to a server connected to good fiber can be done anywhere in the world. There is a built in incentive to keep the network robust and decentralized to a certain degree. This has been put to the test recently (ghash.io) and I'd say Bitcoin passed.

The idea of "poison transactions" is a bit unclear to me. If it solely relies on lost rewards as a way of incentivizing miners to remain honest, then I think that is sort of naive. If anyone wants to build a sufficiently large farm to mine blocks on their own, then they either want to protect the network or attack the network. Not commit theft.

As far as I can see Bitcoin NG doesn't address node centralization, which I think is the most contentious issue. All of these transactions on the microblock will need to be communicated. And I don't see how unlimited microblocks every 10s will lead to less bloat or less network demands on the node.

Edit: Turns out Gavin Andresen agrees with me on the last part:

"It's an interesting idea, but it isn't a scaling solution-- the same amount of transaction data has to get to every fully-validating node, it doesn't matter if it is sent in the microblocks of the Bitcoin-NG proposal or the blocks we have now."
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November 10, 2015, 12:58:43 PM




good luck trading against xu mom. they wiped them out two times.


Repetive pattern looks like some trouble with the trading engine. Wink


no, people cashed in on that crash, and okponzi is trying to block those accounts.

Pattern is nearly pixel-identical over 10 minutes. Only difference is the second leg down...

But what i now noticed: on the given chart there is two times 16:20 o'clock?
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November 10, 2015, 12:59:37 PM

1-day macd has turned red, do we expect a drop ?
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November 10, 2015, 01:12:49 PM

China is already dropping, in case you missed it Wink
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November 10, 2015, 01:19:35 PM

Just like the 2-year drop from 1200 to 120, we are going from 500 to 50 over the next 2 years. It's called the long tail.
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November 10, 2015, 01:22:00 PM

2400cny about to break. 2335 looks like some kind of last resort on Huobi...
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November 10, 2015, 01:23:06 PM

Just like the 2-year drop from 1200 to 120, we are going from 500 to 50 over the next 2 years. It's called the long tail.
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November 10, 2015, 01:29:00 PM

Lots of FUD & trolls circle jerking over a drop in price today. Go & play in traffic or something.
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November 10, 2015, 01:33:28 PM

1-day macd has turned red, do we expect a drop ?

Go draw a Fib retracement box from the $1160 high, right down to the $150 low.

You will see that the first resistance zone, is right at $390. Now of course, Bitcoin shot way beyond that, but much of that momentum was largely to do with shorters, who started opening short positions on the approach to the first Fib retracement zone, as TA 101 says that one should, suffering a brutal short squeeze. After that panic buying or forced buying was all burned out, Bitcoin has come right back down to, and consolidated just under the first long term Fib resistance point.

Over the past week, we have seen a thinning pennant forming. If we take the pole of this pennant, as being from $505 down to $350, then this is bearish as hell. If on the otherhand we assume the spike up to $505 being a bullshit spike, driven in the main by shorts being squeezed, and the usual FOMO brigade, and take the flag pole as being from the base of the previous significant correction, so $300, then the flag becomes a bull flag.

A sell signal for me at this point, would be a break below $360 (although I aint selling), and a buy signal would be a break out above $385.
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November 10, 2015, 01:36:30 PM

Coin

Explanation
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