Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[CuntChocula]

Why don't we witness what is going around as "growing pains" or to be more context-specific "evolution pains" ?

"Butthurt"?

[1714819217]

1714819217

[smooth]

Regarding existing holders, if you have your own keys you are relatively ok (minus the obvious destruction of USD value), but the situation with coins in online exchanges and wallets will be "problematic" if say an exchange with 500k BTCs, say 'ok my clients, now you have 500k BTCCs because we adopted this fork' (and we are keeping 500k BTCs of the other fork for ourselves). It would be like stealing BTCs and exchanging them for Gavincoins.

This is a legit concern. However, there will be plenty of notice. Anyone who is genuinely worried about this should ensure their Bitcoins are withdrawn to keys they hold themselves, as always (and as you say. Missed that bit).

This might be a dumb question, but: have we ever had a contentious hard fork before? What will plenty of notice look like?

No the only hard forks have been uncontroversial development issues or bugs.

According to BitcoinHistory, a hardfork occurred March 12, 2013.


http://historyofbitcoin.org/

Yes due to a bug. There was no meaningful contention over fixing it.

[ImI]

In the end, Classic might win because of RBF

Work on 0.12 will start after the 0.11.2 release. We are planning to disable opt-in RBF. This decision is based on community feedback (miners included).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin_Classic/comments/41qeac/release_plan_19jan2016/

With testing due to start at the end of the month, Core will have to decide pretty soon if it will match Classic's increase in block sizes, or face a realistic forking off the chain.

I had thought support for Classic was a veiled threat by some of those that have come out in support....but, RBF might be the clincher.

imo its already given that classic will reach the 75% easily. the only question remains how core will react. as i see it they have also some breakup-potential, some might be willing to cooperate and to switch to 2MB also, others might go radical and choose another hash-algo (like maxwell/luke already hinted).

that could get really messy.

as i see it at the moment the biggest concern of the most core-devs is if segwit is able to run side by side with a non-segwit-client.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

Sounds like get everything the fuck into cold storage to me & await the chaos.

Why does everyone seem so certain this will blow over? I think it will, but it's not even close to a certainty, in any amount of time. This is the largest test of Bitcoin's anti-fragility yet and it's likely to get worse before it gets better. BitcoinClassic isn't an implementation. It's a proposed governance model that is only promising.  When concrete proposals get rolled out to be attacked, criticized and nitpicked, support may waver. 

The game isn't over. It's not even half time yet. We won't win until the longest chain has a block in it bigger than 1MB.  There's a bunch of stuff that can go wrong before then. Hell, it's possible something could go wrong AFTER that.

There are three main possibilities:
1. Bitcoin goes down before it comes back up.
2. Bitcoin could go up before it crashes again.
3. It could go down and stay down, like the Japanese stock market. 2 decades later and nowhere near it's all-time high.

The one thing that almost certainly will not happen is it goes up and stays up, because that would bring in new users and the network can't handle them. Fees higher than Mastercard AND the ChiComs have the kill switch?  Hey, what's this GooglePay app preinstalled on my new phone?

[coins101]

.....

There are three main possibilities:
1. Bitcoin goes down before it comes back up.
2. Bitcoin could go up before it crashes again.
3. It could go down and stay down, like the Japanese stock market. 2 decades later and nowhere near it's all-time high.
...

Price goes down over uncertainty of Core vs. Classic fork; resolution with Classic winning; price shoots up to $888 before the block halving in July.

Its a dead cert things will pan out as I have stated. Go sell your house and put everything on a quick short, then double up long.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

In the end, Classic might win because of RBF

Work on 0.12 will start after the 0.11.2 release. We are planning to disable opt-in RBF. This decision is based on community feedback (miners included).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin_Classic/comments/41qeac/release_plan_19jan2016/

With testing due to start at the end of the month, Core will have to decide pretty soon if it will match Classic's increase in block sizes, or face a realistic forking off the chain.

I had thought support for Classic was a veiled threat by some of those that have come out in support....but, RBF might be the clincher.

I've gone from being confused about opt-in RBF to sort of indifferent. Theymos may have seduced me with his charms tho.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1331275.msg13600494#msg13600494

[billyjoeallen]

.....

There are three main possibilities:
1. Bitcoin goes down before it comes back up.
2. Bitcoin could go up before it crashes again.
3. It could go down and stay down, like the Japanese stock market. 2 decades later and nowhere near it's all-time high.
...

Price goes down over uncertainty of Core vs. Classic fork; resolution with Classic winning; price shoots up to $888 before the block halving in July.

Its a dead cert things will pan out as I have stated. Go sell your house and put everything on a quick short, then double up long.

If $888's the top, what the bottom?

I have coins in cold storage worth considerably more than my house.

[coins101]

.....

There are three main possibilities:
1. Bitcoin goes down before it comes back up.
2. Bitcoin could go up before it crashes again.
3. It could go down and stay down, like the Japanese stock market. 2 decades later and nowhere near it's all-time high.
...

Price goes down over uncertainty of Core vs. Classic fork; resolution with Classic winning; price shoots up to $888 before the block halving in July.

Its a dead cert things will pan out as I have stated. Go sell your house and put everything on a quick short, then double up long.

If $888's the top, what the bottom?

I have coins in cold storage worth considerably more than my house.

Half of 8 is 3, so price will settle at $333

[marcus_of_augustus]

Does anybody know which exchanges offer cryptographic proof of reserves? It seems like an obvious selling point to any that want to gain market share.

Mike Hearn very publicly audited BitStamp once.

[Richy_T]

**Disclaimer - I'm not admitting to regular drug abuse via RL dealers though **

So irregular drug abuse then...

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[CuntChocula]

This civil war of ours, gentlemen... Why do we fight? Have you given it any thought?

War, huh? Good God, y'all! What is it good for? Absolutely nothing! Say it again:
Core! huh? yeah!
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, uh-huh, say it say it say you fuckin'
Whore!! huh? Good God, y'all! What are you good for? Absolutely nothing!

OK, you're right, I don't know where I'm going with that. More of an impromptu, artist-as-a-conduit-for-the-Muse, let-the-music-carry-me-away sort of a thing, that's what I was hoping for. The way it turned out, well... I just came off sounding like some faultfinding douche.
Sorry.
Was worth a try tho, could've been worse. Had a certain faux–naïf charm to it, a bit like The Song That Never Ends? No? OK, forget it.
Listen, you guys like The Dead? Oh, great!

~annoying noodlingtrippy space~
God damn, well I declare, have you seen my bike?

Back on topic:

Mike Hearn very publicly audited BitStamp once.

And now it started banning Russian IPs. http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/01/18/bitstamp-bans-access-from-russia-temporarily/
Coincidence?

[Mrpumperitis]

has anyone noticed that you cant make new btc addresses on exchanges now!, bittrex and polo dont allow it anymore, its one address per account ( with id on polo )
hmm i wonder why??

[RCan06]

I haven't been active on this forum in awhile, but I almost assumed with the failure of BitcoinXT this was past us, but it appears to have to increased. Haven't even decided which option is best, but I don't own a large mining farm or an exchange, so what does my decision even matter if it'll be made for me lol..
Hopefully bitcoin (which ever one the consensus agrees to) can swiftly move forward, and the developers of the disregarded platforms can concede without causing a ruckus and further damage our credibility.

Edit:

has anyone noticed that you cant make new btc addresses on exchanges now!, bittrex and polo dont allow it anymore, its one address per account ( with id on polo )
hmm i wonder why??

On Bittrex this appears to be the case for all coins, I can only have one Litecoin or Dash address as well. I can only assume this is so they don't have to manage and keep track of thousands of addresses, but does raise a question of decreasing anonymity. Not sure the reason.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[jbreher]

<<Sorry for the horkedattribution>>

Not at all. JorgeStolfi was saying that if you settle to the Bitcoin blockchain only 1/10000 of your tx then you might as well not do it at all and use a fiat LN system. I'm saying that at 1/10000 of your tx, the cost of using real Bitcoin (even with, hypothetically, expensive BTC transactions) would be so low there is no reason not to just stay with Bitcoin. I don't think people will want fiat LN.

Doesn't make much sense. While 1/10000 of the transaction represents only 0.01% of the customer's transaction cost, it represents 100% of the tranasaction aggregator's cost - and that is the party tasked with selecting the ultimate settlement network.

[JayJuanGee]

**Disclaimer - I'm not admitting to regular drug abuse via RL dealers though **

So irregular drug abuse then...

I know a place. If you savvy. 

Is there any current silk road for regular people, or does a person have to be savvy with technicals?   Or let's just say people in the USA who may want to buy prescription drugs, but not have to pay USA prices... ?

[Richy_T]

So for anyone still harboring any doubts, here is the actual data ChartBuddy used to generate this widget. Please feel free to point out any errors. I picked one with both empty and full blocks to give an illustration.

Code:

Block    Size     Limit    Perc
  394091   995032  1000000  100%
  394092   929728  1000000   93%
  394093   995189  1000000  100%
  394094   927529  1000000   93%
  394095      210  1000000    0%*
  394096   995123  1000000  100%
  394097   999928  1000000  100%
  394098   949174  1000000   95%
  394099   998803  1000000  100%
  394100    64143  1000000    6%
================================
AVE-NOMT  7854649  9000000   87%
AVE-MT    7854859 10000000   79%

Note that this round included 10 blocks, way more than the targeted 6 and 50% were still full. I probably should have included the times as well as though the last block is only 6% full, it came a scant 44 seconds after the previous block.

Empty blocks marked with a *

[Richy_T]

I've gone from being confused about opt-in RBF to sort of indifferent. Theymos may have seduced me with his charms tho.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1331275.msg13600494#msg13600494

The signs have been there for a while that the crazy is infectious.


(Disclaimer: I'm actually not against RBF)