Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Mrpumperitis]

great discussion guys    roach n alex    , jorge n smooth , azwarel n richy and a few others debating gd tech talk

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[r0ach]

Satoshi's basic mistake was to make the currency non-inflationary.

Anonymint made the same mistake as you, thinking it's somehow more ethical to have an inflationary currency.  I think I have debunked that notion in the link below:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1319681.msg13544160#msg13544160

I wrote that too before: it became a pyramid investment scheme and a tool for crime.  

You need to lay off the moonshine before typing stuff like this.  All forms of currency are either pyramids or ponzies.  Any finite commodity like gold where you can attempt to corner the market is a pyramid scheme.  Paper money is a Ponzi because the infinite printing fulfills the requirement for needing a continuous stream of investors or you're by definition robbing the others.  The unsustainable requirement of the Ponzi is also fulfilled by the fact that currency is inherently an options contract for goods or services in the future.  The fact that I can just refuse to accept your paper currency and switch to a different currency making you not able to redeem anything gives it an always unsustainable nature each second of the day.  They're nothing but option contract time bombs.

The only honest man's currency is to remove the abstraction and just use flat out barter.  You're making a deal with the devil in order to have more efficient specialization of labor.  And "crime", give me a break.  You can delete every currency that exists and there will still be crime, so what are you even talking about.

[ChartBuddy]

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[JayJuanGee]

Nothing is going to stay in some fixed microcosm when it is projected to grow. Satoshi himself said that Bitcoin was going to be big or nothing, so there was no vision that Bitcoin would remain some niche experiment as it, of course, had to start out small before it could become bigger.

Again: once, while discussing future user base growth, Satoshi considered 20% per year (doubling every 4 years) a "crazy" rate of growth.  That would be consistent with his chosen block reward schedule (halving every four years).  With a "non-crazy" growth rate of less than 20%/year, the USD value of the block reward would have deceased with time, forcing the system to transition gradually to fees.

Surely he was too smart to risk actual predictions, but on the other hand he cannot have expected the price to rise by a factor of 10 every year for 5 years.  So the USD value of the block reward too increased by almost he same factor, instead of decreasing as he may have expected.

The price rose so fast because of speculative investment and trading, fueled by predictions that it would one day replace VISA.  That surely is a use for bitcoin that he did not expect.  If there is something that the world did not need in 2009, and will never need, is another penny stock.  He would not have bothered creating bitcoin, if he knew that it would turn into that.

Surely, this is a speculation forum, but when you get into prognosticating what some kind of fictitious founder wanted, you are getting into lala land. 

In reality, it does not matter what one founder or anyone else wanted, when some invention is crowd sourced, the invention becomes public and becomes what the majority of influential forces wants, so who really cares about the irrelevant point about what may have originally been intended... and attempting to assign such visions really amounts to wishful thinking instead of acknowledgement of various positive developments.

You attribute certain negative values to positive historical matters.  Price appreciation is a good thing and likely to be within foreseeable possibilities.  Bitcoin has not become ruined because of price appreciation and various accompanying speculation, but price speculation has become a feature of bitcoin that needs to be accounted for in order to assist in determining its history and some of the dynamics of where it may be going.

Accordingly, it is also foreseeable with any paradigm changing invention that parts of its direction and applications are going to to evolve in ways that are not exactly known, but may be within feasibility even if scope, quantity and negative and positive attributes are not quite known.

Overall, your ongoing supposedly academic interest remains quite skewed in its selective picking and choosing of which parts of history you want to emphasize about bitcoin and continuing to paint your obvious selective negative pictures of bitcoin dynamics.

[JayJuanGee]

...........

Whether BTC prices are transitioning back into a bear market is still to be determined, yet I believe the probabilities from the upper $300 price range are greater than not that we are still in a bull market and more likely to have a sustained upturn of 20% rather than a sustained downturn of 20%


Yes, I have disclosed a considerable amount of information regarding my various past BTC positions, but that does not make me lacking in knowledge merely because I have been accumulating BTC, and since about October 2015 I have begun to buy and sell bitcoin (rather than just accumulating BTC), which to date, since October has brought down my average price per BTC from $502 to about $478.. and in the meantime my BTC portfolio is better positioned with cash on both sides and a larger quantity of BTC and more dollars in my BTC trading accounts. 

I am not claiming to be any kind of expert regarding trading or knowing the price direction, but I am attempting to do what i think is best for my own position in light of the totality of my various investments, including but not limited to BTC investments. 

I don't recall disclosing exactly my quantity of coins, but I acquired more than 2/3 of my coins during 2014, and I accumulated around 5% more coins since I started trading in October.. while increasing my cash reserves.. but overall the quantity of my trades still remains fairly limited amount of my total BTC portfolio, with less than 10% of my BTC at stake at any point in time, yet I anticipate increasing the percentage of BTC that I will put into play with the passage of time, and likely as I continue to bring down my average price per BTC in my portfolio.   
..........

Following my earlier post, from time to time, I do like to have the excuse to layout some of my tentative plans... just to demonstrate that it seems to be good to have staggering bets in each direction, even though my own overall investment approach seems to have a bit of a preference for BTC prices to go up.   


Currently, my tentative downward buying looks something like this:

$325.00      0.76923077   $250.00
$335.00      0.74626866   $250.00
$345.00      0.72463768   $250.00
$355.00      0.70422535   $250.00
$362.00      0.41436464   $150.00
$372.00      0.40322581   $150.00



And, currently, my tentative upward selling looks something like this:
 

$393.00      $300.00       0.763358779
$401.00      $300.00       0.748129676
$406.00      $300.00       0.738916256
$413.00      $250.00       0.605326877
$420.00      $350.00       0.833333333
$427.00      $300.00       0.702576112
$433.00      $300.00       0.692840647


At the moment, we do look closer to the buying, and I am slightly inclined (maybe 55% for down and 45% for up) to believe that prices will be going down a bit more before going up... but I am also of the belief that we have not really left the bull market, yet, and maybe we would need to experience sustained prices below $330-ish before I may conclude that we have transitioned into a bear market.

[cbeast]

You made a declarative statement. Do you care to explain why you say "I could like it again if it somehow returned to the original plan -- with 10 times as many users perhaps than it had in mid-2010" and "I cannot like the monster into which it has mutated." What has changed that you don't like?

I wrote that too before: it became a pyramid investment scheme and a tool for crime. 

Both developments were bad for mankind, and it is hard to tell which one will be more harmful in the end.  But the first one also ruined the technical experiment: it attracted a horde of scammers and unsavory characters, encouraged hoarding, created volatility that all but destroyed its usefulness as currency, made mining into a fabulously lucrative industrial activity that was inevitably centralized, gave birth to Blockstream and their plan to sacrifice bitcoin's original goal to the spurious goal of inflating the price, and more...

Well I can't argue against that being a Resource Based Economy devotee. All I can say is that this speculation phase is temporary. I don't know why you think such a small economic tool has any significant effect on global crime, but in principle perhaps it is actually decreasing overall crime by showing that crimes can't always be covered up by big banks.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Elwar]

Satoshi's basic mistake was to make the currency non-inflationary.

This sums up the problem that all of the "blockchain instead of Bitcoin", Keynesian, part of the problem people have with Bitcoin. That and the fact that they can't centrally manipulate the value.

Inflationary currencies fail. Every one of them.

[boumalo]

Bitcoin Prise again on another rise for the 1000$ ?  
Would be great

When the paradigm will change, the price could increase 10 fold in a few months

[Karartma1]

Satoshi's basic mistake was to make the currency non-inflationary.

This sums up the problem that all of the "blockchain instead of Bitcoin", Keynesian, part of the problem people have with Bitcoin. That and the fact that they can't centrally manipulate the value.

Inflationary currencies fail. Every one of them.

Yes Elwar I do agree and I've always thought that is the best part of the experiment. IMHO Bitcoin is good as it is right now, I don't understand why people look for perfection here. Bitcoin works, I'm using it without problems since 2010 and I don't care if Mt.Gox, Mintpal, Cryptsy and sons dissapear along the way.
Satoshi gave us a huge power and if we can not handle it then, perhaps, we don't deserve it.

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[sAt0sHiFanClub]

it’s possible to construct a transaction that takes up almost 1MB of space and which takes 30 seconds or more to validate on a modern computer (blocks containing such transactions have been mined). In 2MB blocks, a 2MB transaction can be constructed that may take over 10 minutes to validate which opens up dangerous denial-of-service attack vectors. Other lines of code would need to be changed to prevent these problems.

sauce

This is a known protocol design bug: signatures were defined in such a way that the cost of validating a transaction with N signatures is proportional to N² rather than N.  

It has a known simple solution: limit the number of inputs of a transaction to some reasonable value, say 20 or 100, independent of the block size limit.  That will keep the cost of verifying one transaction bounded, and will inconvenience only a few users, by forcing them to break any big transaction into a chain of smaller ones.

IIRC, BiotcoinXT included this simple solution.  Hopefully it will be included in Classic too.  

XT simply made a more accurate count of the number of ECDSA ops to validate the block,( and put a proportional limit on this), but more importantly estimated the amount of *data* needed to do so. This is where the real performance hit was - the block quoted took 1.2Gb to store the hashes.

An average single core cpu can do around 10K sig hashes per second with libsecp258, so sigops in of themselves is not the issue.

So it limited sigops to 80k for a 8mb block, but crucially, limited no. of bytes needed to calc. sig hashes ( up to 1.3Gb for an 8mb block) where previously this was unlimited.

These are not difficult problems to solve. There just needs to be a will. I think core much rather keep the problem so they can point to it and say "Look what will happen!!"

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

Listen to LFC Bitcoin guise... he knows what he's talking about... srs
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1318765.0

 

[ChartBuddy]

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[mOgliE]

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We're at a decision point here. Time to bet on the next trend. I'd bet for a small down, like 20$ then slowly going up until we pass the 400 again.

Of course, that's only if nothing else happen, if we see another dev quitting the btc adventure it'll be another story xD

[Loimu]

Yeah, I believe the price is already starting to climb. Slowly and steadily we will break $400 again.

[lottery248]

Yeah, I believe the price is already starting to climb. Slowly and steadily we will break $400 again.

before this goes true, we would need to get to track the price.
in order to get the price back to the $400, what kind of the factor could get the bitcoin back to the $400?