Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I am not attempting to accuse you of any purposeful misrepresentation, but I do understand that empty blocks are not being counted in the chart buddy's renditions of how full are the blocks on an hourly basis.  

Accordingly, leaving out blocks (whether a more accurate representation or not) could be the reason that blockchain.info is coming up with different numbers..  

I invite you to run the numbers yourself. If you'll notice the times when the red line agrees with the solid green level, those are times when there have not been empty blocks and they do not affect it at all.

Let me turn it around a bit. One of the complaints the small blockers have with BIP101 is that despite there being a 75% of 1000 requirement for BIP101 to activate, random chance would mean that that could be achieved with much less than 75% of the hashrate. This is true. Likewise, even if on daily average, blocks appear to be much less than 100% full, random chance can (and has started to) mean that at random times, the blocks *are* full and users experience congestion. One full block is not really all that big a deal but we are starting to see, two, three and even four full blocks in a row. That's potentially a confidence destroying poor user experience. This is happening now.

Bear in mind, we *don't* have RBF, we *don't* have Lightning Network and we *don't* have segwit. What we do have is a fairly straight-line log plot that showed this was coming and warnings from several people, ranging from 2-5 years ago that this would have to be addressed.

I'm not getting into any arguments about small block or big block, and all I am saying is that I do not really understand the various chart buddy representations and clearly why they deviate from the depictions on blockchain.info.  If the various representations of chartbuddy is not clear to people, then it becomes a lot more difficult to stay on the same page regarding what it is that we are arguing about (that is if we are arguing), exactly.

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[JayJuanGee]

That is a decent explanation regarding how you are attempting to represent what is going on accurately and without bias, but for some reason, even though you have been explaining in various posts, readers still seem to be a bit confused about what some of the indicators mean.

Can we click on chartbuddy and receive your various explanations concerning what the various numbers, scales, dots and charts represent in a kind of one stop shopping location?

Don't get me wrong, because I am not trying to bust your balls on any of this.  I think that you have been doing a great service to this thread with your creation and updates of chart buddy through the years... and by taking on such tasks, you are likely to receive various unwarranted and comments of non appreciation.

I did explain it at one point but it probably does need to go in the explanation link, probably with an explanation diagram.

I have seen several of your explanations, and probably you have repeated yourself in several regards.  Nonetheless, if there is some kind of explanatory diagram, then maybe that could clarify the extent to which people are arguing and even make more clear the gravity of the block size problem, if there is such a problem.  Some people may be more difficult to convince than others regarding whether there is an urgent problem (maybe even yours truly), but at least if a large majority of us are able to understand specifically regarding the various representations of chart buddy, then at least we are not arguing about different sets of "facts."

[JayJuanGee]

I don't know why this didn't occur to me until just now, but with well over 50% hashing power in China, what happens if the Communist Party confiscates all the mines? Then instead of shutting them down, they merge the pools and double spend until the price crashes to pennies.

It wouldn't even do any good to fork away from them.  They have the ASICs, so they could just jump on the new fork and double spend again.

I think this is the biggest security threat to Bitcoin right now. This is a bigger threat than pools, massive miner farms, fewer nodes, anything.   

These mines are too big to hide. If the ChiComs don't know where they all are, they could easily find out.

The Red Chinese government is the only power on earth that could shut down Bitcoin right now, but they could do it with a few phone calls.   They have reasons for doing it too, from preserving the value of the Renmimbi to enforcing capital controls, to consumer protection to regulating commerce to protecting incumbent players or even propping up their preferred altcoin (Litecoin?)

Yeah, when one set of FUD doesn't work, shift over to something else...

You must be having a good ole time coming up with various lil fantasy scenarios.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

JJG if you think he's wrong you have to explain why!

[billyjoeallen]

Do you really believe those chart buddy numbers?

So you're calling me a liar. Either

1)Prove it

2)Apologize.

3)Show the world that you're a man of no honor.

I think that I already elaborated on what I had meant in my earlier posts regarding the reason for my chartbuddy comment, and again I have not been calling you a liar.. nor accusing you of any purposeful attempts at misrepresentation.  

I will apologize to the extent that my words may have been read by you and possibly others as implying some level of purposeful misrepresentation coming from you, because so far, up until now, I have not witnessed any such attempts from you to purposefully misrepresent in regards to chartbuddy.


Anyhow, I believe that there is a need for all of us to retain a certain amount of thicked skinnedness when dealing with some of these forum matters and comments that we receive that may seem to be criticsms and reflections of non-appreciation, and surely over the years, I have received my fair share of what I would count as selective and emotional unwarranted attacks on me (and others may assert that I deserved every single bit and maybe even more of some of those attacks that I received)... hahahahaha       Can we make up?  

You got more out him than I did, Richie. JJG either gets punched out a lot or he cowardly limits calling people liars to online forums.  

BJA... seems to be proving my point.... .. likes to stir shit and point fingers... .. and describe various of his supposed/hypothetical BTC investment strategies that make little to no sense because he is constantly a high-baller and winning like a mo fo... no matter what. yet, we keep thinking that he is leaving BTC, but in reality, he is never gonna leave cause he is going to whine and shit-stir no matter what the outcomes, even if we witness him getting his way, he will stay around, continue to post disingenuous half truth, point fingers at others and just ask for more and more of what he wants....

All you had to do to get rid of me was keep pumping the market until I had liquidated all my holdings, but no, you couldn't keep doing that, could you? Too many people saw through the smallblocker bullshit.

Anyone following my lead has made money in the last month. Anyone following yours has lost about 15%.  Who's adding value here?

Hellrow?    don't mischaracterize my position for some cheap thrill and strawman argument.   I could give a ratt's ass about whatever is adopted regarding scaling, so long as there is some kind of vetting and non-rush into some fearmongered position.


Regarding price, it is likely affected by manipulation in these times more than anything when  we coincidentally have several stories coming out at once while there is some simultaneous dumping in an attempt to create some fear and to shake some weak hands.... Yes, surely, I hope that the current bull market does not transition into a bear market because that probably would not be good for bitcoin, but it seems that we are a ways from such a transition.. maybe we would need to experience prolonged prices below $330 before we would be able to call that bitcoin is no longer in a bull market.

Hellrow? Do you know what the commonly accepted definition of a bear market is? It's a market that has dropped greater than 20%. We have been in a bear market for over two years. we've dropped more than 20% from the November high of $504. We've dropped more than 20% from the more recent December high of $475. just this month, the drop from $465 to $352.50 was 24.2%.
WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET, DIPSHIT

[billyjoeallen]

I don't know why this didn't occur to me until just now, but with well over 50% hashing power in China, what happens if the Communist Party confiscates all the mines? Then instead of shutting them down, they merge the pools and double spend until the price crashes to pennies.

It wouldn't even do any good to fork away from them.  They have the ASICs, so they could just jump on the new fork and double spend again.

I think this is the biggest security threat to Bitcoin right now. This is a bigger threat than pools, massive miner farms, fewer nodes, anything.   

These mines are too big to hide. If the ChiComs don't know where they all are, they could easily find out.

The Red Chinese government is the only power on earth that could shut down Bitcoin right now, but they could do it with a few phone calls.   They have reasons for doing it too, from preserving the value of the Renmimbi to enforcing capital controls, to consumer protection to regulating commerce to protecting incumbent players or even propping up their preferred altcoin (Litecoin?)

Yeah, when one set of FUD doesn't work, shift over to something else...

You must be having a good ole time coming up with various lil fantasy scenarios.

It's not just paranoia, you squirrel-brained boob. The Chi-coms have a history of nationalizing businesses, industries and whole sectors of the economy. They've done it more than any other government in history with the possible exception of the Soviets.

[AZwarel]

Removing the block size limit is like Uber.

  ... you don't monitoring you bandwidth usage, right ?

decrease the minimal fee relay on your node ... and you can cry about upload black hole.  

PS: Uber map & service use more than 2Gb of mobile bandwidth ... it's not free !

He wasn't using Uber as a technological thing. He was saying that free market has surprising and innovative ways to try reaching an equilibrium in supply/demand. Hes example was the number of taxis is a fixed supply constrain, than Uber came and increased the supply out of nowhere..but some can not think out of the box. Way too many one dimensional thinker here to grasp anything outside "blocksize and fees" arguments.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Do you really believe those chart buddy numbers?

So you're calling me a liar. Either

1)Prove it

2)Apologize.

3)Show the world that you're a man of no honor.

I think that I already elaborated on what I had meant in my earlier posts regarding the reason for my chartbuddy comment, and again I have not been calling you a liar.. nor accusing you of any purposeful attempts at misrepresentation.  

I will apologize to the extent that my words may have been read by you and possibly others as implying some level of purposeful misrepresentation coming from you, because so far, up until now, I have not witnessed any such attempts from you to purposefully misrepresent in regards to chartbuddy.


Anyhow, I believe that there is a need for all of us to retain a certain amount of thicked skinnedness when dealing with some of these forum matters and comments that we receive that may seem to be criticsms and reflections of non-appreciation, and surely over the years, I have received my fair share of what I would count as selective and emotional unwarranted attacks on me (and others may assert that I deserved every single bit and maybe even more of some of those attacks that I received)... hahahahaha       Can we make up?  

You got more out him than I did, Richie. JJG either gets punched out a lot or he cowardly limits calling people liars to online forums.  

BJA... seems to be proving my point.... .. likes to stir shit and point fingers... .. and describe various of his supposed/hypothetical BTC investment strategies that make little to no sense because he is constantly a high-baller and winning like a mo fo... no matter what. yet, we keep thinking that he is leaving BTC, but in reality, he is never gonna leave cause he is going to whine and shit-stir no matter what the outcomes, even if we witness him getting his way, he will stay around, continue to post disingenuous half truth, point fingers at others and just ask for more and more of what he wants....

All you had to do to get rid of me was keep pumping the market until I had liquidated all my holdings, but no, you couldn't keep doing that, could you? Too many people saw through the smallblocker bullshit.

Anyone following my lead has made money in the last month. Anyone following yours has lost about 15%.  Who's adding value here?

Hellrow?    don't mischaracterize my position for some cheap thrill and strawman argument.   I could give a ratt's ass about whatever is adopted regarding scaling, so long as there is some kind of vetting and non-rush into some fearmongered position.


Regarding price, it is likely affected by manipulation in these times more than anything when  we coincidentally have several stories coming out at once while there is some simultaneous dumping in an attempt to create some fear and to shake some weak hands.... Yes, surely, I hope that the current bull market does not transition into a bear market because that probably would not be good for bitcoin, but it seems that we are a ways from such a transition.. maybe we would need to experience prolonged prices below $330 before we would be able to call that bitcoin is no longer in a bull market.

Hellrow? Do you know what the commonly accepted definition of a bear market is? It's a market that has dropped greater than 20%. We have been in a bear market for over two years. we've dropped more than 20% from the November high of $504. We've dropped more than 20% from the more recent December high of $475. just this month, the drop from $465 to $352.50 was 24.2%.
WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET, DIPSHIT

Hahahaha. Look at you?  

Appearing desperate in your stretched and selective definitions in what you are deeming to be a "bear market."  

In order to come off as somewhat believable, rather than an inadequate chicken little wannabe, you need to look at Bitcoin's history and fundamentals a bit more broadly, rather than selectively choosing some price spikes and throwing out random attempts at appealing to authority numbers.

Gotta find some humor in your ridiculous bold assertions.

Yours truly, DIPSHIT.....   not.   

[JorgeStolfi]

Do you even realize that the long term outcome of Lightning (the Holy Graal of Core folks) would be to massively reduce the amount of transaction fees versus an on-chain scaling?

At this point its totally unclear whether the Lightning Netvapor will be economically and practically viable at all.  There are still huge gaps in the design (think of a sketch of the bitcoin protocol without block rewards) and no one can answer my questions about how simple hypothetical use cases woudl work out.  

Therefore, it is impossible to say what its impact will be on the revenue that miners will get from transaction fees.  Greg is pathologically obsessed with the 1 MB cap and apparently has convinced many (but maybe not all) Blockstreamers that it will provide miners with suitable incentives without making LN fees too expensive.

One thing that we can say is that anyone who wants to open, close, settle, or top up an LN payment channel will have to pay a bitcoin transaction fee.  Thus, if the LN user base grows, the demand for those channel operations will become more desperate, the demand for bitcoin block space idem, the bitcoin transaction fees will become more expensive, and therefore the cost of the LN per user will increase.  

Would this business plan make sense in Austrian economics, perhaps?

Do you even realize that Lightning is build UPON a base named Bitcoin? Do you even realize that a house CAN'T exist without its base? How is Lightning bad thing for minors? Lightning can't exist without bitcoin and bitcoin can't exist without minors. Is Lightning a bad thing for Lightning?!

Actually Lightning could use any cryptocurrency in place of bitcoin. Or even multiple cryptocurrencies, with some (or all) nodes and hubs doubling as currency exhanges.  That would let users choose the combination of speed, hashpower, and transaction fees that best suits their needs.  

(Maybe that is why BTCDrak of Viacoin, an altcoin that intends to replace Bitcoin, paid Peter Todd to implement OP_CLTV, (aka  OP_DAMN_DAMN_DAMN_I_TYPED_2160_INSTEAD_OF_2016) -- a bitcoin script opcode that is totally useless except for the LN payment channels.  And why Charlie "Litecon" Lee likes Blockstream's (non)scaling plan, in public disagreement with his boss Brian Armstrong.)

Even more: Adam once claimed that the LN would achieve 10'000 transactions for every blockchain transaction.  Leaving aside what that would mean for the coin lock-in periods of the channels, the rate of 1:10'000 is so close to 0:10'000 that no one would notice if the LN just dropped bitcoin altogether, and from then on just shuffled its "cryptochecks" around indefinitely, without ever settling them.  

Of course, LN users would never accept that.  It would be like that time when the US government decided that dollars would no longer be convertible to gold or silver.  We all remember the revolts in the streets, and the huge bonfires where enraged dollar holders burned their then-worthless bills.  Right?

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

You got more out him than I did, Richie. JJG either gets punched out a lot or he cowardly limits calling people liars to online forums.  

BJA... seems to be proving my point.... .. likes to stir shit and point fingers... .. and describe various of his supposed/hypothetical BTC investment strategies that make little to no sense because he is constantly a high-baller and winning like a mo fo... no matter what. yet, we keep thinking that he is leaving BTC, but in reality, he is never gonna leave cause he is going to whine and shit-stir no matter what the outcomes, even if we witness him getting his way, he will stay around, continue to post disingenuous half truth, point fingers at others and just ask for more and more of what he wants....

All you had to do to get rid of me was keep pumping the market until I had liquidated all my holdings, but no, you couldn't keep doing that, could you? Too many people saw through the smallblocker bullshit.

Anyone following my lead has made money in the last month. Anyone following yours has lost about 15%.  Who's adding value here?

Hellrow?    don't mischaracterize my position for some cheap thrill and strawman argument.   I could give a ratt's ass about whatever is adopted regarding scaling, so long as there is some kind of vetting and non-rush into some fearmongered position.


Regarding price, it is likely affected by manipulation in these times more than anything when  we coincidentally have several stories coming out at once while there is some simultaneous dumping in an attempt to create some fear and to shake some weak hands.... Yes, surely, I hope that the current bull market does not transition into a bear market because that probably would not be good for bitcoin, but it seems that we are a ways from such a transition.. maybe we would need to experience prolonged prices below $330 before we would be able to call that bitcoin is no longer in a bull market.

Hellrow? Do you know what the commonly accepted definition of a bear market is? It's a market that has dropped greater than 20%. We have been in a bear market for over two years. we've dropped more than 20% from the November high of $504. We've dropped more than 20% from the more recent December high of $475. just this month, the drop from $465 to $352.50 was 24.2%.
WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET, DIPSHIT

Hahahaha. Look at you? 

Appearing desperate in your stretched and selective definitions in what you are deeming to be a "bear market." 

In order to come off as somewhat believable, rather than an inadequate chicken little wannabe, you need to look at Bitcoin's history and fundamentals a bit more broadly, rather than selectively choosing some price spikes and throwing out random attempts at appealing to authority numbers.

Gotta find some humor in your ridiculous bold assertions.

Yours truly, DIPSHIT.....   not.  🤓🤓🤓🤓

From Wikipedia:
"While there’s no agreed-upon definition of a bear market, one generally accepted measure is a price decline of 20% or more over at least a two-month period." from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trend

From http://content.moneyinstructor.com/693/what-bull-bear-market.html
"If the markets fall by more than 20% then we have entered a bear market. "

From investopedia:
"Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20\% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.

Read more: Bear Market Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp#ixzz3xfIUiEIk

[JayJuanGee]

JJG if you think he's wrong you have to explain why!

Which he?

[JayJuanGee]

I don't know why this didn't occur to me until just now, but with well over 50% hashing power in China, what happens if the Communist Party confiscates all the mines? Then instead of shutting them down, they merge the pools and double spend until the price crashes to pennies.

It wouldn't even do any good to fork away from them.  They have the ASICs, so they could just jump on the new fork and double spend again.

I think this is the biggest security threat to Bitcoin right now. This is a bigger threat than pools, massive miner farms, fewer nodes, anything.   

These mines are too big to hide. If the ChiComs don't know where they all are, they could easily find out.

The Red Chinese government is the only power on earth that could shut down Bitcoin right now, but they could do it with a few phone calls.   They have reasons for doing it too, from preserving the value of the Renmimbi to enforcing capital controls, to consumer protection to regulating commerce to protecting incumbent players or even propping up their preferred altcoin (Litecoin?)

Yeah, when one set of FUD doesn't work, shift over to something else...

You must be having a good ole time coming up with various lil fantasy scenarios.

It's not just paranoia, you squirrel-brained boob. The Chi-coms have a history of nationalizing businesses, industries and whole sectors of the economy. They've done it more than any other government in history with the possible exception of the Soviets.

Of course this is the speculation thread, so may as well speculate with your pie in the sky fantasies.

[billyjoeallen]

Would this business plan (LN) make sense in Austrian economics, perhaps?

Obviously not. I hope this is a sarcastic question. Generally speaking, Austrian economics studies how third party (usually government) interference in the markets distorts price signals, leading to misallocations of capital resources.  This includes creating by fiat markets that wouldn't otherwise exist, such as carbon credits or auctioning off rights that aren't even owned by the entity selling them such as radio frequencies.

Both of the above examples of artificial scarcity solve problems, but create other problems that are harder to spot at first. "Seeing the unseen", the unintended consequences, that is the heart of Austrian Economics.

 

[JayJuanGee]

You got more out him than I did, Richie. JJG either gets punched out a lot or he cowardly limits calling people liars to online forums.  

BJA... seems to be proving my point.... .. likes to stir shit and point fingers... .. and describe various of his supposed/hypothetical BTC investment strategies that make little to no sense because he is constantly a high-baller and winning like a mo fo... no matter what. yet, we keep thinking that he is leaving BTC, but in reality, he is never gonna leave cause he is going to whine and shit-stir no matter what the outcomes, even if we witness him getting his way, he will stay around, continue to post disingenuous half truth, point fingers at others and just ask for more and more of what he wants....

All you had to do to get rid of me was keep pumping the market until I had liquidated all my holdings, but no, you couldn't keep doing that, could you? Too many people saw through the smallblocker bullshit.

Anyone following my lead has made money in the last month. Anyone following yours has lost about 15%.  Who's adding value here?

Hellrow?    don't mischaracterize my position for some cheap thrill and strawman argument.   I could give a ratt's ass about whatever is adopted regarding scaling, so long as there is some kind of vetting and non-rush into some fearmongered position.


Regarding price, it is likely affected by manipulation in these times more than anything when  we coincidentally have several stories coming out at once while there is some simultaneous dumping in an attempt to create some fear and to shake some weak hands.... Yes, surely, I hope that the current bull market does not transition into a bear market because that probably would not be good for bitcoin, but it seems that we are a ways from such a transition.. maybe we would need to experience prolonged prices below $330 before we would be able to call that bitcoin is no longer in a bull market.

Hellrow? Do you know what the commonly accepted definition of a bear market is? It's a market that has dropped greater than 20%. We have been in a bear market for over two years. we've dropped more than 20% from the November high of $504. We've dropped more than 20% from the more recent December high of $475. just this month, the drop from $465 to $352.50 was 24.2%.
WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET, DIPSHIT

Hahahaha. Look at you? 

Appearing desperate in your stretched and selective definitions in what you are deeming to be a "bear market." 

In order to come off as somewhat believable, rather than an inadequate chicken little wannabe, you need to look at Bitcoin's history and fundamentals a bit more broadly, rather than selectively choosing some price spikes and throwing out random attempts at appealing to authority numbers.

Gotta find some humor in your ridiculous bold assertions.

Yours truly, DIPSHIT.....   not.  🤓🤓🤓🤓

From Wikipedia:
"While there’s no agreed-upon definition of a bear market, one generally accepted measure is a price decline of 20% or more over at least a two-month period." from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trend

From http://content.moneyinstructor.com/693/what-bull-bear-market.html
"If the markets fall by more than 20% then we have entered a bear market. "

From investopedia:
"Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20\% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.

Read more: Bear Market Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp#ixzz3xfIUiEIk

Well, you must be correct, then, if you are citing wikepedia, the money instructor and investopedia.   Gosh.... I guess bitcoin is ded.   

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[cbeast]

Actually Lightning could use any cryptocurrency in place of bitcoin. Or even multiple cryptocurrencies, with some (or all) nodes and hubs doubling as currency exhanges.  That would let users choose the combination of speed, hashpower, and transaction fees that best suits their needs.  

That would introduce security issues. There is no evidence that other cryptocurrencies could stand up to the same level of attacks Bitcoin has successfully withstood. If you are using LN, then you wouldn't benefit from the other altcoin transaction specifications anyway.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation