Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Asrael999]

my gf has her friend over,

I walked into the other room, and she asks "babe, how much would the USD be worth if it wasnt the global exchange"
I assumed she meant world reserve currency
I replied, " ehhhhhhhh like 1 cent ?  no probably not that bad, but ya, a lot less... "


I find it ODD they are talking about such things...

i'll be back.

It's probably safe to say that a Dollar will always be worth 100 cent, whether it would still be worth 0.0024 BTC or 1/40th a Barrel of Oil, now thats debatable.

[ChartBuddy]

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[Asrael999]

my gf has her friend over,

I walked into the other room, and she asks "babe, how much would the USD be worth if it wasnt the global exchange"
I assumed she meant world reserve currency
I replied, " ehhhhhhhh like 1 cent ?  no probably not that bad, but ya, a lot less... "


I find it ODD they are talking about such things...

i'll be back.

It's probably safe to say that a Dollar will always be worth 100 cent, whether it would still be worth 0.0024 BTC or 1/40th a Barrel of Oil, now thats debatable.

Although I guess it isn't safe to say that at all. A Brit in 1945 would always have said GBP 1 would always be worth 240d, a quarter of a century later it would not have been.

[iCEBREAKER]

Please support your assertion that 2-5 cents will buy something to eat.
Where in the world can you buy a snack for 5 cents?  AFAIK not even Thailand/Cambodia/Nepal/India have such cheap food.  IIRC 35 cents is about the lowest you can go for a meal's worth of calories.

If you know better, share the specifics and I'll update Numbeo accordingly.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/photos/food-price-comparison-around-the-world/#!fullscreen&slide=988845

That's ~3 cents per egg btw (for India).

Nice try.  You have to buy a dozen eggs to get them for 3 cents each.

And good luck eating that egg raw.  I'm sure the bargain bin store brands in Delhi are extra organic.   

What do you think about the analysis indicating each BTC tx uses about $6-$8 worth of electricity, in the context of these outrageous 3-cent fees?

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[valta4065]

Damn stable. Just raise a bit, I wanna sell at 380€ that's all I ask for 

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[Asrael999]

Please support your assertion that 2-5 cents will buy something to eat.
Where in the world can you buy a snack for 5 cents?  AFAIK not even Thailand/Cambodia/Nepal/India have such cheap food.  IIRC 35 cents is about the lowest you can go for a meal's worth of calories.

If you know better, share the specifics and I'll update Numbeo accordingly.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/photos/food-price-comparison-around-the-world/#!fullscreen&slide=988845

That's ~3 cents per egg btw (for India).

Nice try.  You have to buy a dozen eggs to get them for 3 cents each.

And good luck eating that egg raw.  I'm sure the bargain bin store brands in Delhi are extra organic.   

What do you think about the analysis indicating each BTC tx uses about $6-$8 worth of electricity, in the context of these outrageous 3-cent fees?

That tells me that Bitcoin is currently priced pretty much to perfection.
Each block contains roughly 1500 Transactions. Block reward 25 BTC + fees
Block Reward currently roughly $10,300 -  reward per Transaction -> $6.87

Cost of electricity per Transaction and reward per Transaction are equal - sounds like a perfect market.

Block halving -> either 1) Higher BTC Price, or  2) Less electricity usage, or 3) some combination of both.

[tommorisonwebdesign]

Please support your assertion that 2-5 cents will buy something to eat.
Where in the world can you buy a snack for 5 cents?  AFAIK not even Thailand/Cambodia/Nepal/India have such cheap food.  IIRC 35 cents is about the lowest you can go for a meal's worth of calories.

If you know better, share the specifics and I'll update Numbeo accordingly.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/photos/food-price-comparison-around-the-world/#!fullscreen&slide=988845

That's ~3 cents per egg btw (for India).

Nice try.  You have to buy a dozen eggs to get them for 3 cents each.

And good luck eating that egg raw.  I'm sure the bargain bin store brands in Delhi are extra organic.   

What do you think about the analysis indicating each BTC tx uses about $6-$8 worth of electricity, in the context of these outrageous 3-cent fees?

That tells me that Bitcoin is currently priced pretty much to perfection.
Each block contains roughly 1500 Transactions. Block reward 25 BTC + fees
Block Reward currently roughly $10,300 -  reward per Transaction -> $6.87

Cost of electricity per Transaction and reward per Transaction are equal - sounds like a perfect market.

Block halving -> either 1) Higher BTC Price, or  2) Less electricity usage, or 3) some combination of both.

I am going to put my money on Bitcoin reaching $1000-$1200 after halving. It may not happen right away, but sometime in the near future we will see prices like this.

[ChartBuddy]

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[AlexGR]

Please support your assertion that 2-5 cents will buy something to eat.
Where in the world can you buy a snack for 5 cents?  AFAIK not even Thailand/Cambodia/Nepal/India have such cheap food.  IIRC 35 cents is about the lowest you can go for a meal's worth of calories.

If you know better, share the specifics and I'll update Numbeo accordingly.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/photos/food-price-comparison-around-the-world/#!fullscreen&slide=988845

That's ~3 cents per egg btw (for India).

Nice try.  You have to buy a dozen eggs to get them for 3 cents each.

(Morpheus meme kicks in) What if I told you that in a large percentage of the rest of the planet, people don't buy coca colas and beers by the 6packs, eggs by the dozens, and fuel by the gallon?

What do you think about the analysis indicating each BTC tx uses about $6-$8 worth of electricity, in the context of these outrageous 3-cent fees?

Westerners / people of developed countries are lucky enough to not even have to care about such low fees, hence why I'm condemning the hypocrisy of "ohh fees are too high", "who cares for bloat, let's just buy larger hard disks for hundreds of $$$" and then also raising the point of how easy it is to "destroy value" by reckless moves - and this happens because BTC is unappreciated.

As for those who live in developing countries and value these 3 cents proportionately more they won't complain because they'd lose 100 times that using legacy payment systems to move money around the planet. Immigrants from developing countries know this kind of exploitation by first hand experience, while transferring money back to their countries. This means that while a 3 cent fee might hurt them more, a 30$ fee saving (for using btc instead of western union) would mean (comparatively) enormous savings for them - or a day's of work doing the dishes in some western restaurant. Yes, in that context, they'd happily pay the 3 cents instead of 30$.

As for the 6-8$ of electricity, naturally, tx/s, fees and btc price will rise to compensate. In 4.5 years (post halving for 6+ btc per block) we may be doing 20-50 tx/s instead of 3, and in 8.5 years (post the 3+ btc per block) we may be upwards of 50-100tx/s, on-chain.

This will reduce the pressure for serious fees per tx but if the gains compared to legacy systems are great (and typically they will), then people will be outbidding one another to get the biggest savings by using BTC - so even if the fees don't need to be high, they may end up being high if on-chain tx/s capacity can't scale that much. Right now we are averaging 600-800$ per tx with inclusion costs of 1 to 5 cents, depending the priority. This could escalate to thousands per tx when dust is eliminated, and tens of thousands as people start to flock to BTC to save big money from the legacy systems. In terms of annual money movement, BTC will be doing trillions per year at that point, dwarfing the western unions and paypals. At a 150-230mn/day current pace, we are currently at levels comparable with western union, despite all the wasteful dust txs which drag the average down. And the tx cost is extremely low still.

[jbreher]

To me, it seems that the status quo of bitcoin is the current 1mb limit on the blocksize,

It may seem that way to you. Another way of looking at it is that, until very recently, the max block size was no factor in the economics of bitcoin.

Nonetheless, the plan to implement seg wit seems to have reached consensus...

If The SegWit Omnibus Changeset had reached consensus, we would not be arguing over it, now would we?

would you like to attempt another summary of what I just said, or are you o.k. with letting my words speak for themselves?

I think I understand your words. I just think they reveal flawed premises.

[ChartBuddy]

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[rebuilder]

As for the 6-8$ of electricity, naturally, tx/s, fees and btc price will rise to compensate. In 4.5 years (post halving for 6+ btc per block) we may be doing 20-50 tx/s instead of 3, and in 8.5 years (post the 3+ btc per block) we may be upwards of 50-100tx/s, on-chain.

This wasn't exactly your main point, but there's no certainty that fees will rise to compensate for the loss of subsidy. Miners can also simply go out of business due to unprofitability. The question really being discussed now is: "What kind of usage of the blockchain will lead to the best income for miners, and how should we decide what usage we aim for?"

This because ultimately the miners decide what kind of network they secure.

[ZyclonRacerX]

...
Westerners / people of developed countries are lucky enough to not even have to care about such low fees, hence why I'm condemning the hypocrisy of "ohh fees are too high", "who cares for bloat, let's just buy larger hard disks for hundreds of $$$" and then also raising the point of how easy it is to "destroy value" by reckless moves - and this happens because BTC is unappreciated.

Alex. Bloating blockchain is irrelevant to people living in developing countries. Because half of mankind lives on ~2 dollars a day.
That half is not going to run a full node -- not @ $20/mo, not @ $40/mo, not even @$5/mo.
That half also can't afford the 8c tx fee you propose, because already spent their $2//day on internet access. Internet is expensive in God-forsaken hellholes.
So let's stop pretending that any of this matters.

As for those who live in developing countries and value these 3 cents proportionately more they won't complain because they'd lose 100 times that using legacy payment systems to move money around the planet. Immigrants from developing countries know this kind of exploitation by first hand experience, while transferring money back to their countries.

Curious fact #1: The developing world doesn't subsist on WU sent from America. Some of those people work. Or panhandle locally.
Curious fact #2: Sending bitcoin to developing countries is stupid, that's why almost no one does it, because no one accepts it there. Because people need cash there, because the beggars are still using last gen iPhones.
Bitcoin remittance isn't a thing, it's just another implausible use case backstory, which falls apart when met with reality.

[adamstgBit]

As for the 6-8$ of electricity, naturally, tx/s, fees and btc price will rise to compensate. In 4.5 years (post halving for 6+ btc per block) we may be doing 20-50 tx/s instead of 3, and in 8.5 years (post the 3+ btc per block) we may be upwards of 50-100tx/s, on-chain.

This wasn't exactly your main point, but there's no certainty that fees will rise to compensate for the loss of subsidy. Miners can also simply go out of business due to unprofitability. The question really being discussed now is: "What kind of usage of the blockchain will lead to the best income for miners, and how should we decide what usage we aim for?"

This because ultimately the miners decide what kind of network they secure.

"What kind of usage of the blockchain will lead to the best income for miners" i think the answer is crazy simple, infinite usage , the more the usage the better.

pretty sure no matter how to slice it, even if miners require 1GB/s internet connections and high quality hardware, because of huge blocks, the more usage there is on the network they more money they will make.

pricing the fees is relatively easy to, put the low enough fee as to include 90% of the TX but high enough and exclude 10%, you want the fee high enoght as lose that 10% of TX's so  that you know the other 90% are paying as much as you can get them to.

[adamstgBit]

Miners can also simply go out of business due to unprofitability

this is simply IMPOSSIBLE, maybe individual miners can go  out of business, the the bitcoin mining industry as a whole simply cannot go under, it's impossible.