Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

but you can always fork off and play with eth dapps derps.

ETH: Price > 10x in 2 months
BTC: Keeps tanking, predictably

Man, you must feel AWFUL

And if you even decided to invest in Ethereum, you can hope to see tears once the whales start dumping their coins and dropping the price back down to where it's supposed to be, and feeling bad about not sticking with bitcoin.

Bad as the tears around here, when BTC started tanking at $1,200?
Man, would'a cried my eyes out, myself, because such not P&D

Yes in retrospect we recognize $1200 as an inflated highpoint... but hardly a pump and dump to take nearly a year to force the price down to below $200 with considerable amounts of capital used in order to achieve such objective.

Actually, there was considerable amounts of capital used in both directions (the pump and the dump of bitcoin)... We will see whether Ether can do another 10X... after the latest 10x... and that would surely be impressive if it were capable of such (which seems very low likelihood).  Bitcoin seems to be in a much better position for a 10X (at this time) as compared with Ether doing another 10x at its current price point.

[Andre#]

holy shit wtf is going on?

https://medium.com/@barmstrong/what-happened-at-the-satoshi-roundtable-6c11a10d8cdf#.pscurkusv

Armstrong speaks --> price retreats

OMG, he discovered big font and colors!

BTW, Amstrong's blog is from yesterday. Price started retreating three days ago. Perhaps the correct causality is

price retreats --> Armstrong speaks

[ahpku]

but you can always fork off and play with eth dapps derps.

ETH: Price > 10x in 2 months
BTC: Keeps tanking, predictably

Man, you must feel AWFUL

And if you even decided to invest in Ethereum, you can hope to see tears once the whales start dumping their coins and dropping the price back down to where it's supposed to be, and feeling bad about not sticking with bitcoin.

Bad as the tears around here, when BTC started tanking at $1,200?
Man, would'a cried my eyes out, myself, because such not P&D

Yes in retrospect we recognize $1200 as an inflated highpoint... but hardly a pump and dump to take nearly a year to force the price down to below $200 with considerable amounts of capital used in order to achieve such objective.

Actually, there was considerable amounts of capital used in both directions (the pump and the dump of bitcoin)... We will see whether Ether can do another 10X... after the latest 10x... and that would surely be impressive if it were capable of such (which seems very low likelihood).  Bitcoin seems to be in a much better position for a 10X (at this time) as compared with Ether doing another 10x at its current price point.

Another 10x?! You mean "and blow Bitcoin right out of the water"?

You do understand that 10x * 10x is 100x, correct? Making ETH market cap higher than BTC by, roughly, a third?
The improbability of this sort of thing is something many Bitcoin enthusiasts fail to grasp

Lowered Expectations



~ time passes ~

~ time passes ~

Yep, third month of 2016, no $500
Next Coindesk poll: 50% of Bitcoin Experts Believe Bitcoin Will Be Worth Over $275 by 2017
Prob'ly miss that by a shitload, per usual.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

28 million in leveraged longs on BFX. Shorts barely changed.  This is a dangerously unstable situation.  Every one of those longs have to close at some point, either at a profit or a loss. It amounts to massive overhead resistance.

Where the hell is the pump gonna come from? Halving is priced in. SegWit is priced in even though it may not happen or happen on a longer time frame than expected.  Global economic stability? Bitcoin lost 5% in a day, hardly a safe haven asset, especially given the current governance situation.

Bitcoin is a honeybadger, so price may go up, but if it does, it will be in spite of fundamentals, not because of them.  There can be no sustainable rise without a permanent scaling solution.

Sometimes you make a lot of sense; however, this is not one of those times.


Get real.


If price were in a consolidation period for a few days, then of course it makes sense to attempt to weigh price direction in terms of which way the bets are stacked; however, in this case, price just suffered a test of $400, and that test took a whole hell-a-va lot of coins to move the price (on stamp) from $402 to $382 (actually about 3000 BTC on stamp within a few minutes).  That was no sustainable drop, but instead a test of the bottom that has proven that it takes a whole hellava lot of coins to push below $400 and we are currently back above $400...... ...

On the other hand, I don't really know for sure.. but to me, it seems that the bottom has been tested, and we are back on our way up in bitcoin.  In any event, the odds seems greater to go up from here (5% or 10%), rather than going down.  On the other hand, we could languish in this price area for a few days, and if that happens, then we will need to reconsider our predictions a that point, including considering the extent to which longs (or shorts are stacking up) and other potential tests of support or resistance.. and how much volume of BTC is employed to engage in such tests.

[adamstgBit]

holy shit wtf is going on?

https://medium.com/@barmstrong/what-happened-at-the-satoshi-roundtable-6c11a10d8cdf#.pscurkusv

Armstrong speaks --> price retreats

OMG, he discovered big font and colors!

BTW, Amstrong's blog is from yesterday. Price started retreating three days ago. Perhaps the correct causality is

price retreats --> Armstrong speaks

Amstrong had another similar blog the day of the round table.

hes been very vocal about this for a long time.

[ahpku]

...
Amstrong had another similar blog the day of the round table.
...

Round Table Original or Round Table Classic?

[adamstgBit]

...
Amstrong had another similar blog the day of the round table.
...

Round Table Original or Round Table Classic?

the first one?
...
the one where they pretended to reach consensus


I remember, i was  saying " take notice of poeple speaking out against the consensus, it's likely they are stupid "

the next day Amstrong had a blog post.

[JayJuanGee]

28 million in leveraged longs on BFX. Shorts barely changed.  This is a dangerously unstable situation.  Every one of those longs have to close at some point, either at a profit or a loss. It amounts to massive overhead resistance.

Where the hell is the pump gonna come from? Halving is priced in. SegWit is priced in even though it may not happen or happen on a longer time frame than expected.  Global economic stability? Bitcoin lost 5% in a day, hardly a safe haven asset, especially given the current governance situation.

Bitcoin is a honeybadger, so price may go up, but if it does, it will be in spite of fundamentals, not because of them.  There can be no sustainable rise without a permanent scaling solution.

I do believe segwit is not priced in, if anything word of segwit causing forks on the testnet has poeple selling ( which is a silly reason to sell, nothing ever works perfectly first time around ) But segwit will likely be priced in way after the fact. I will be looking to sell when segwit is released, in fear of it causing a complete mess, after a few weeks of it working fine, and we really do get a 1.75X capacity increase from it. i will buy back.

if it causes a mess which devs need to clean up, i could see price half overnight, and with that the mining industry will crumble, and with that bitcoin will crumble. implementing thousands of lines of code, and asking other node oppeterater  ( blockchain.info wallets and the like ) to write some code to acomadate segwit, has HUGE downside risks, to much for me to just HODL and pray for the best.


but if we see segwit give us more then 50% capacity increase and then the 2MB HF is a go, we'll have 4X more block space this time next year, if we somehow manage to fill these 4X bigger blocks totally full again by this time next year I expect price to be at least double what it is now or at most 10x bubble like rise and crash. price has always been highly correlated with TX.

Actually, I think this is a really fair analysis.

There are some uncertainties with seg wit.  Oh yeah, it seems like a really great idea, yet like you said problems in the testnet causes some uncertainties concerning whether fixes can be made and whether problems can be identified sufficiently and whether it accomplishes all or most of what it is billed to accomplish without causing various unexpected downsides.

And, problems could cause some delays in the actual deployment of seg wit into the real bitcoin space with real world applications built upon it.

Because I take a lot of the FUD with a large grain of salt, the upside of seg wit seems to be much more likely than the downside of seg wit... .. but until it is actually deployed into the wild, we will not know for sure regarding whether it is meeting or exceeding expectations or turns out to be a major disappointment (as some of the FUDsters seem inclined to suggest as a real and likely possibility).

[JayJuanGee]

If you didn't get in at 382 you missed the bottom.

difficult to time these matters exactly, especially if you are trading somewhat manually. 

I was sleeping when $382 took place, and I believe that my bitcoin alarm was set for $393 or something like that.  The alarm went off, and the volume was a bit low, so I believe several minutes took place before I was able to get sufficiently oriented.. blah blah blah...

I ended up buying some at $392 and some at $389...   

Even though I saw a pretty decent sign that bottom had been in (that is nearly 3k BTC sold on stamp within a few minutes), I'm not a balls to the wall kind of investor, so I bought a pretty decent quantity with my available fiat; however, I saved a bit of the fiat just in case we were witnessing (not for the first time), a false bottom.

[adamstgBit]

Oh look another buy opt coming up!

i'm hitting buy Buy BUY!!!!! at 395  

[BitconAssociation]

...
Amstrong had another similar blog the day of the round table.
...

Round Table Original or Round Table Classic?

the first one?
...
the one where they pretended to reach consensus


I remember, i was  saying " take notice of poeple speaking out against the consensus, it's likely they are stupid "

the next day Amstrong had a blog post.

Was surprised (i know, i know, "still?" Must be a learning disability...) by how seriously people took that. Like me, they just never learn...

[JayJuanGee]

28 million in leveraged longs on BFX. Shorts barely changed.  This is a dangerously unstable situation.  Every one of those longs have to close at some point, either at a profit or a loss. It amounts to massive overhead resistance.

Where the hell is the pump gonna come from? Halving is priced in. SegWit is priced in even though it may not happen or happen on a longer time frame than expected.  Global economic stability? Bitcoin lost 5% in a day, hardly a safe haven asset, especially given the current governance situation.

Bitcoin is a honeybadger, so price may go up, but if it does, it will be in spite of fundamentals, not because of them.  There can be no sustainable rise without a permanent scaling solution.

The most important part is that 8 M$ are new longs opened since 21st February, when price was 450$, so they are underwater now, and more down could trigger a long squeeze.

I noticed that.  One thing I do notice is that since the great 2013 bubble, there has never been two consecutive short squeezes or long squeezes. They ALWAYS happen short, long, short, long. The last one was the short squeeze to $502.  The longs are due.  Still, patterns continue until they don't. 

Another ridiculous application of a decent theory.  There maybe long short long short, but if you have not seen a long squeeze since $502, you seem to be really selective with your analysis... so selective that it makes little to no sense.   

[adamstgBit]

...
Amstrong had another similar blog the day of the round table.
...

Round Table Original or Round Table Classic?

the first one?
...
the one where they pretended to reach consensus


I remember, i was  saying " take notice of poeple speaking out against the consensus, it's likely they are stupid "

the next day Amstrong had a blog post.

Was surprised (i know, i know, "still?" Must be a learning disability...) by how seriously people took that. Like me, they just never learn...

>80% hashing power, devs and CEO's all agreed

it is still seriously serious proposal which we are going ahead with despite what Amstrong blog says.

[BitconAssociation]

^
But it was so vague. If i remember right, core promised to work on stuff, and miners promised to stick to core if core did what it promised. No way for either side to cry foul when the other backs out, due to (intentionally?) loose wording.
Got a link to that pdf?

[adamstgBit]

[JayJuanGee]

but you can always fork off and play with eth dapps derps.

ETH: Price > 10x in 2 months
BTC: Keeps tanking, predictably

Man, you must feel AWFUL

And if you even decided to invest in Ethereum, you can hope to see tears once the whales start dumping their coins and dropping the price back down to where it's supposed to be, and feeling bad about not sticking with bitcoin.

Bad as the tears around here, when BTC started tanking at $1,200?
Man, would'a cried my eyes out, myself, because such not P&D

Yes in retrospect we recognize $1200 as an inflated highpoint... but hardly a pump and dump to take nearly a year to force the price down to below $200 with considerable amounts of capital used in order to achieve such objective.

Actually, there was considerable amounts of capital used in both directions (the pump and the dump of bitcoin)... We will see whether Ether can do another 10X... after the latest 10x... and that would surely be impressive if it were capable of such (which seems very low likelihood).  Bitcoin seems to be in a much better position for a 10X (at this time) as compared with Ether doing another 10x at its current price point.

Another 10x?! You mean "and blow Bitcoin right out of the water"?

You do understand that 10x * 10x is 100x, correct? Making ETH market cap higher than BTC by, roughly, a third?
The improbability of this sort of thing is something many Bitcoin enthusiasts fail to grasp

Lowered Expectations



~ time passes ~

~ time passes ~

Yep, third month of 2016, no $500
Next Coindesk poll: 50% of Bitcoin Experts Believe Bitcoin Will Be Worth Over $275 by 2017
Prob'ly miss that by a shitload, per usual.

Regarding the point about another 10x of ETH or a 10x of BTC, surely I recognize your point regarding the ramifications of a 10X of ETH (if BTC were to stay the same price or even to drop in value).  The market place does all kinds of irrational things because it is based on some irrationalities and information disparities and pure speculation disparities.  So, yes, what I am saying is not completely outside of the realm of possibilities (I mean I am not making a straw man argument), yet maybe we already agree (in part) regarding my overall point that bitcoin is in a much better place than ETH for an irrational valuation appreciation that is more capable of securely supporting such irrational value appreciation.

Even though ETH currently has  considerable momentum and hype, there are likely a large number of crypto knowledgeable people that would acknowledge and recognize that ETH is currently in a very precarious position. .not only in terms of a potential (and probably extreme market reversal), but also in terms of the security of its various systems (including third party risk) to secure the value that is contained therein.  I'm not sure about how long it is going to take for the ethereum situation to get ugly (or if it will for sure), but it seems pretty likely to end with a lot of downward movement (that is likely going to take place quite a bit faster than what took place in bitcoin in 2014).

Regarding polls, surely they can reflect various kinds of public sentiment.  But there is a lot of inconsistencies in polls and which populations are being polled and what questions are being asked that can change rapidly and also does not really reflect what bitcoin prices are actually going to do and how people's perceptions can change once the price starts to do something that the persons' had not originally conceived to be within the mix of possibilities.

Your quoting of the polls is all over the place, and I doubt that such polls provide any meaningful insight concerning either the short term (3-12 months) or the long term (1-5 years) price possibilities of bitcoin.

[ahpku]

^
>Regarding polls, surely they can reflect various kinds of public sentiment.
Why don't you click your mouse on the pictures and find out for yourself? Yes, they're links to Coindesk polls.
And sure, Bitcoin enthusiasts are a little overexuberant when it comes to their coin of choice, and a little feeble when it comes to maths. hence the poll results.

[adamstgBit]

^
But it was so vague. If i remember right, core promised to work on stuff, and miners promised to stick to core if core did what it promised. No way for either side to cry foul when the other backs out, due to (intentionally?) loose wording.
Got a link to that pdf?

vague?

segwit asap ( probably may ) and 2MB HF about 1 year later.

[adamstgBit]