Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[harrymmmm]

determinism says that, that the past, present, and future is identifiable as an unbreakable chain of circumstances of which no single link in such a chain could possibly be avoided or altered. so if there was a entity that knew everything about everything he could predict the future, because for any one moment there is only ONE possible physical further moment.
- The Truth

and so i say:


Existence precedes essence, but the the truth precedes all.

Unfortunately, quantum mechanics and a hundred years of thought and experimentation have laid waste to determinism in the way you're thinking.
At any 'point' in time, there are many future possible outcomes for the next cloasest future 'point' in time. All outcomes have known probabilities. One such outcome is randomly chosen from an observer's point of view.
That is true randomness btw - not just a lack of information.

[Mickeyb]

We're down 19.5% from the $789 top, half a percent from a bear market, and still $500 down from the ATH two and a half years ago. I blame the delayed recovery on Core and the lack of on chain scaling.

ATH was phony GOX price point. Probably would never have made it half that far with a real market. As for current 789 top. You are in a healthy correction in a perpetually growing valuation.

Right now with the halving Bitcoin is in new price discovery mode. I wouldn't be surprised that this current triangle resolves down instead of up. Probably needs to go sub $600 to kick off next big leg up.

Block size is not a concern for BTC because BTC is not a transaction type of currency, it is a store of value currency. Nobody cares if it takes 10 minutes to transact in bitcoin because that has been how long it has taken for confirmation since inception. And nobody that is waiting 10 minutes is buying a cup of coffee.

What is a concern is competition. I think there is a 50% chance that Bitcoin is replaced within a year with a higher valuation currency. Bitcoin is currently one alt-bubble away from being lapped... once that happens chaos will ensue because there will be just too many choices competing for crytpo dollars.

Post of the week.

I Second. But maybe under 5 years not one.

[becoin]

I'm liking the amount of FUD. Hoping for some panic. Just a few days is all I need.

Same here. But no chance.
Even a modest drop meets strong demand.

[Fatman3001]

I'm liking the amount of FUD. Hoping for some panic. Just a few days is all I need.

Since we've had a normal summer lull I'm guessing finex longs will crash sometime August. Just put in your low bids and reap the rewards.

[readysalted89]

I'm liking the amount of FUD. Hoping for some panic. Just a few days is all I need.

Since we've had a normal summer lull I'm guessing finex longs will crash sometime August. Just put in your low bids and reap the rewards.

I know there's a traders saying that the price of everything will crash during the summer and start rising again in autumn. Sadly it doesn't always work out like that though. July was the summer low point in 2013 after the April high of $230. The price gradually rose after the July low until October. In the following November there was the ATH.



Sell in May and go away doesn't always work.

This year you could have sold at $450 in May, then watched the price go to $800.

[DARKHOLDER]

We're down 19.5% from the $789 top, half a percent from a bear market, and still $500 down from the ATH two and a half years ago. I blame the delayed recovery on Core and the lack of on chain scaling.

ATH was phony GOX price point. Probably would never have made it half that far with a real market. As for current 789 top. You are in a healthy correction in a perpetually growing valuation.

Right now with the halving Bitcoin is in new price discovery mode. I wouldn't be surprised that this current triangle resolves down instead of up. Probably needs to go sub $600 to kick off next big leg up.

Maybe some whale tanking now btc...and dont let go low price..

[savetherainforest]

Man, so the US markets are breaking a new high every day for the last 8 days.  I see the equities doing so strong that BTC isn't as attractive, that can't last and seems like bubble territory in the stock market right now.

I suspect the markets will be propped up for the jewish bankers to try and get their Hillary Clinton sockpuppet into office.  If the markets were tanking while she's running on Obama's legacy, it wouldn't look very good.  When/if Trump wins, I assume they will crash the market like 1 month after he steps into office and try to blame it on him.  Or maybe they will pull the plug and crash the stock market the second they see Hillary can't win.

This.


But Trump will win anyway... And they will blame Trump for reaching 35-40 trillion debt... And Hitlery will step in after almost 2 years or so to take the reigns and blame Donald for everything!

[adamstgBit]

determinism says that, that the past, present, and future is identifiable as an unbreakable chain of circumstances of which no single link in such a chain could possibly be avoided or altered. so if there was a entity that knew everything about everything he could predict the future, because for any one moment there is only ONE possible physical further moment.
- The Truth

and so i say:


Existence precedes essence, but the the truth precedes all.

Unfortunately, quantum mechanics and a hundred years of thought and experimentation have laid waste to determinism in the way you're thinking.
At any 'point' in time, there are many future possible outcomes for the next closest future 'point' in time. All outcomes have known probabilities. One such outcome is randomly chosen from an observer's point of view.
That is true randomness btw - not just a lack of information.

does it really make any difference if the next possible outcome is chosen by true randomness or a predetermined set of random?
the end result is the same, we get an immutable chain of events which no one can really control.
i guess your suggestion that the future cannot be predicted because of the true randomness factor.
it would be interesting to understand how they have determined that true randomness actually exists...

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Look where we are this AM, back to $666.



Maybe all those little "Satanist" kiddies are right, LOL. At least it's higher than $420. 

Personally I want to see $9999. 

[DaRude]

I don't believe i heard a single serious argument how bigger blocks help decentralization, best case you get is that the benefit outweighs the increase of centralization.

Bigger blocks will decrease potential transaction congestion, enabling a faster user base growth.
A bigger user base with more use cases will create a bigger and stronger network, attract more businesses and lead to faster innovation, which will increase bitcoin valuation. This in itself, besides more mining fees from additional transactions, will attract new mining farms.

Furthermore; any new mining farms outside of China will not be in a disadvantage because of bigger blocks and the Great Chinese Firewall, since miners can always opt to mine smaller blocks. They will only loose out on some of the additional transaction fees as revenue, but these will be the smaller fees anyway.

So yes, bigger blocks, faster network growth, stronger network, more businesses, more use cases, faster innovation, better competitive position against other blockchains, and more farms including farms outside of China, hence more decentralization.

In the end it should be the market to dictate where to put a mining farm based on characteristics such as energy prices and optimal block size, and not a coding restriction.

A lot of assumptions there, where pretty much ever point can be argued (and has been to death). Like current block size = slowing user base growth. It's all just speculation.

How will they not be at disadvantage if new 248MB block will propagate in X seconds in China but X+Y outside?

And you lost me on how "bigger blocks...more farms including farms outside of China" then you say "market to dictate where to put a mining farm based on characteristics such as energy prices"

So if energy prices are the cheapest in north korea, china, sudan, or russia (due to government subsidies) let all the mining concentrate there? Don't think you'll get a lot of support on this one.

Beauty of BTC is that it doesn't care about the vocal minority blowing up forums and reddit on how the world is falling. Most of these are speculators concerned with short term price appreciation on their magical internet money. And they might actually be right, and centralization will be marginal and price will go to da moon, if we put 8MB block in, but even a 10% risk of things blowing up is not acceptable. A basic business vs engineering decision.

[tomothy]

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4twzwp/interesting_bullet_points_from_bitmain_rd/

The more I read and understand about LN, the more of a mess it seems.
I do not think any of this bodes well.

I think LN is the trojan horse to make miners less important. It results in transactions being conducted in huds and increases the importance of nodes. I think along with increasing transaction capacity it serves the dual purpose of hindering miner control.

[aminorex]

Proposal to fix major bitcoin protocol flaw http://elaineou.com/2016/07/20/bitcoin-improvement-proposal-hard-fork-to-return-stolen-silk-road-bitcoin-to-ross-ulbricht/

[adamstgBit]

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4twzwp/interesting_bullet_points_from_bitmain_rd/

The more I read and understand about LN, the more of a mess it seems.
I do not think any of this bodes well.

I think LN is the trojan horse to make miners less important. It results in transactions being conducted in huds and increases the importance of nodes. I think along with increasing transaction capacity it serves the dual purpose of hindering miner control.

agreed, but this is all just fine. what makes it bad is the idea of limiting the on-chain capacity in order to force TXs off of the blockchain and onto LN.

they will not say THAT, they will say increasing on-chain capacity will create node centralization, even tho that argument makes no sense, since no one in there right mind will choose to run a node on a network they have been priced out of ( high fees )...

being hell bent on making sure bitcoin can run on a 100$ computer, and at the same time claiming high fees isn't is a problem is kinda contradictory.

what's your incentive to run a full node on a network you dont not use?

[JimboToronto]

BTC is not a transaction type of currency, it is a store of value currency.

I prefer to think of it as a value transfer system.

Most people other than speculators who use Bitcoin, use it to send money quickly and cheaply to other parts of the world, at least at this time.

Making retail purchases with Bitcoin is still basically a gimmick.

[yefi]

Unfortunately, quantum mechanics and a hundred years of thought and experimentation have laid waste to determinism in the way you're thinking.
At any 'point' in time, there are many future possible outcomes for the next cloasest future 'point' in time. All outcomes have known probabilities. One such outcome is randomly chosen from an observer's point of view.
That is true randomness btw - not just a lack of information.

It may be impossible to determine the outcome from all past information in the universe, but I don't think that proves that the universe is non-deterministic. Perhaps, for example, there is a multiverse that contains all possible universes, and, if we might be granted to peer over it, the apparent randomness of electron clouds collapsing would be perfectly mechanical.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm liking the amount of FUD. Hoping for some panic. Just a few days is all I need.

Since we've had a normal summer lull I'm guessing finex longs will crash sometime August. Just put in your low bids and reap the rewards.

I know there's a traders saying that the price of everything will crash during the summer and start rising again in autumn. Sadly it doesn't always work out like that though. July was the summer low point in 2013 after the April high of $230. The price gradually rose after the July low until October. In the following November there was the ATH.



Sell in May and go away doesn't always work.

This year you could have sold at $450 in May, then watched the price go to $800.

Certainly, Bitcoin is not seasonal and it is not a mature, or even close to mature asset, so it's performance is not going to be exactly correlated with seasons, and I believe quite a few folks have been trying to figure out it's correlation with other asset classes, and since it is not mature, it is likely not going to correlate for some time - especially with ongoing adoption and development along with speculation that causes kinds of unscheduled periods of dramatic price increases, corrections, consolidation and then possibly repeating (not on a schedule exactly and also not exactly with predictable magnitude -even though in retrospect, we are going to be able to identify patterns).

[Elwar]

BTC is not a transaction type of currency, it is a store of value currency.

I prefer to think of it as a value transfer system.

Most people other than speculators who use Bitcoin, use it to send money quickly and cheaply to other parts of the world, at least at this time.

Making retail purchases with Bitcoin is still basically a gimmick.

Bitcoin is the only thing I ever use to make retail purchases. Almost any purchase actually. I am at about the 98% point when it comes to bitcoin vs fiat spending. Now that I can buy my food with bitcoins all of my basic necessities are covered.

[kobilica]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Look where we are this AM, back to $666.



Maybe all those little "Satanist" kiddies are right, LOL. At least it's higher than $420. 

Personally I want to see $9999. 

Next target is $1337

[DARKHOLDER]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Look where we are this AM, back to $666.



Maybe all those little "Satanist" kiddies are right, LOL. At least it's higher than $420. 

Personally I want to see $9999. 

Let's go to 777$ next week.
Next target is $1337

[Torque]

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4twzwp/interesting_bullet_points_from_bitmain_rd/

The more I read and understand about LN, the more of a mess it seems.
I do not think any of this bodes well.

I think LN is the trojan horse to make miners less important. It results in transactions being conducted in huds and increases the importance of nodes. I think along with increasing transaction capacity it serves the dual purpose of hindering miner control.

agreed, but this is all just fine. what makes it bad is the idea of limiting the on-chain capacity in order to force TXs off of the blockchain and onto LN.

they will not say THAT, they will say increasing on-chain capacity will create node centralization, even tho that argument makes no sense, since no one in there right mind will choose to run a node on a network they have been priced out of ( high fees )...

being hell bent on making sure bitcoin can run on a 100$ computer, and at the same time claiming high fees isn't is a problem is kinda contradictory.

what's your incentive to run a full node on a network you dont not use?

This is all moot, because...

Right now a small group of Chinese control > 90% of Bitcoin mining, and will ALWAYS control > 90% of Bitcoin mining, because of near zero energy cost (perhaps completely subsidized?) and complete ROI control.  This will stay the same for years, perhaps decades, unless and until someone else in another part of the world can compete with them in terms of cost basis and ROI.

That is the reality.  So the whole debate about "we gotta limit the block size in the protocol to keep and insure that mining is decentralized" is complete bullshit until something changes with what I just wrote above.  It's like a constructed form of Socialistic regulation written directly into the core protocol, with no tangible benefit to end users.

And it's a stupid, losing effort if you really think it through.  There are Gold mining operations all over the world that claim to be separate entities, but all actually run under shell corps all owned by something like 5 wealthy elite families, one being Rothschild.  The price of gold is fixed by the same.

For the record, I'm not opposed to LN.  I actually support it, because just raising block size in core is not going to scale transaction speed to what merchants and users are going to need for it all to work as a replacement for what the modern world has now.