Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Happy 2017 to everyone, I think the next step is the 1050$ if it breaks i don't have any idea what would be the next stop of this rally, maybe some old bitcoiners have an idea ?

I think that we need to look at the current ATH as the next stop and a potential resistance point...

There is considerable potential that the current ATH would not be a resistance point because we are already so close to it, but I think that we still need to see how this price range plays out between $1060 and $1180

Seems to be plausible, i'm very cautious because it's my first time as a bitcoiner as i experience a rally a these prices, so thanks for your thoughts

If you are nervous about retaining value with your BTC holdings, you can sell a little bit on the way up.  Usually you do not want to sell too much because you could end up with a bunch of fiat and a lacking in BTC.  

Everyone is different regarding how they will do it, but I tend to sell 1% to 2% of my BTC holdings every $100 price rise of BTC in about every $10 to $15 increments (in other words staggered in both directions - up and down), and then I buy back when BTC prices go back down... therefore, on average I end up selling less than 1% for every $100 (and my BTC holdings grow overall with the same amount of investment, more or less).  

I started this selling strategy at a bit over $250 (but my selling between $250 and about $400 was an even smaller percentage of my BTC holdings because my BTC portfolio was then in the red) and today, I still have nearly 92% of my BTC holdings in BTC and the other 8% in fiat.  

Some kind of a strategy of taking profits (even small amounts) can help you to be less nervous during BTC volatile periods (which are almost inevitable) but I think that even with extensive practice a lot of us get nervous no matter what when the price becomes really volatile (especially when it goes down), so we have to figure out ways to hedge and to safeguard some of our nervousness that are tailored to our own situations.

Thanks for the advises, I'm not so nervous because i have started by investing little amounts of fiat every months and i didn't invest a lot since november, also, what i've invested i consider if i lose this amount it won't change my life (even if i wouldn't be happy), but i wanted to trade a little bit but i was nervous so i was just hodl
But it's an interesting strategy to start trading at minimal risk, thanks i'll try that

I completely agree with what appears to be your initial strategy to invest small amounts into BTC on a regular basis that you could afford to lose, if worst case scenario were to arise.  That should be a continued strategy with any investment (and especially true with known volatile investments such as bitcoin).

Also, I understand that if you are in a kind of initial BTC accumulation phase of your investment, you cannot really justify selling any part of it.. because you feel that you have so little and you are continuing to accumulate and to buy on dips, etc.  

I accumulated BTC for more than a year and a half before I created a selling (or BTC trading) strategy... but partly my hand was forced to keep accumulating BTC during that time because during my initial investment BTC prices continued to go down for the first year (2014) and then only became somewhat flat then next 6-8 months in 2015, which allowed me to accumulate some coins at the lower prices and then to create a BTC trading strategy that I considered to be profitable because my strategy only allowed me to sell coins from the ones that I had accumulated below the then selling price (as prices went up - so my average buy price was less than $250 for those coins that I authorized selling some of the profits)....


So in essence I divided my total BTC investment into mostly three components, and initially, I held 2 of the portions that continued to be in the red and only traded from the portion of the coins that was in the green... as price continued to rise, then my other two portions of my BTC portfolio merged into the green or at least closer in the green which allowed me to authorize myself to trade more coins and a higher portion of my BTC portfolio  (my cost basis for the coins was a bit of a moving target as the price changed and as I continued to buy and sell, but initially my price averages for the three groups were approximately as follows: 1) below $250, 2) below $350 and 3) about $500.

I created some other limits too in order to only trade from "profits".  For example, if you have accumulated 10BTC, then every dollar that BTC prices goes up, your portfolio goes up in value by $10, which is $10 profits.  So, if BTC prices goes up $10, then your profits of your BTC holdings are $100, and initially I authorized myself only to trade from my BTC profits (and my authorization varied over time, but trading 30% to 50% of my profits seemed to be somewhat reasonable for me, but I know sometimes people will want to trade either more or less of their profits based on their own personality, view of bitcoin and/or otherwise overall financial circumstances).

Thanks for all these informations, for your strategy a little interrogation to help myself when you sell, at what level do you fix your buy back ? Level at selling - fees - 2 or 3 % ? I think I'll do regularly this in a little percentage until a reliable consensus for the scalability of the bitcoin will be determined, I think you could play with your method as long as this problematic remains unsolved, but I think if this problematic comes to an end the best strategy would be hold & accumulate with buying or  proposing services/works based on your specifications/qualifications for remuneration in btc, as mentionned by BTCTrader in the case where Bitcoin could explose and replace the role of the fiat without being limited by the hashing power of the network and their fees for the microtransactions.

NB : Sorry for my poor English syntax, i didn't learn it by the books :/

Surely, you need to figure out a comfortable percentage for yourself for your buy back location and your sell location and your amount.  I have varying fee amounts, generally between 0% and .4% (so usually the most for the fees is .8% to account for both the sell and the buy back, so the buy back price should be at least more than .8% lower when I am paying the highest rates.. the most usual fee on both ends is about .4%).   

By the way, fees differ on each location, and currently, I trade on BTC-e, Bitfinex, Bitstamp, Gemini and GDAX.

(my local bitcoin's is sporadic and also direct buys and sells to individuals - and I am not currently using Uphold, even though it is available - and we all know that Circle is no longer functioning for buying/selling)


  I am selling about .2% of my total bitcoin holdings approximately every $10 to $15 that the BTC prices rise with the understanding of the possibility that those sold coins could forever be left behind (but I will still have the cash from those coins that I could either completely take off the table or just use it for trading around, direct sales, arbitrage and even Localbitcoin sales and purchases/sells that are profitable). 

So for example, if I sell at .1BTC at each of the intervals of $999.28, $1014.28, and $1029.28, then as each of the orders fill I may set an order to buy back .11BTC or even .105BTC at each of the intervals of around $981.62, $996.62 and $1011.62.  In recent months, I had usually been planning to buy back a bit more BTC than I am selling because I am attempting to keep my bitcoin holdings up and not to bleed off the amount of my BTC sales more than necessary or more than my comfort level - I am currently at about 91.79% BTC, but I would feel a bit better to be above 92%, but I am not really too stressed about it, even though I feel that I have a bit more money in cash than I would prefer.   

From time to time, I tweak the amounts and the intervals of my buying and selling based on the fee at that exchange, but I will leave orders on the books that have not been filled for quite a long time, and I have buy orders going all the way down to about $550, and currently sell orders up to $1,220.

In other words, when I sell BTC, it is already in my head that there is a possibility that I will never buy back some of my lower orders at the originally intended buy back price, and after a while I remove those old and lower orders from the table and use that money for other purposes.  In that regard, I used to have some buy back orders all the way down to $240, but I have removed all my orders between $240 and $550 and have put that money to use in other kinds of ways - for example trading on local bitcoins and arbitrage opportunities but if I need to I still have that money in my BTC trading funds and I could reopen those buy orders at the low prices if BTC prices were to drop below my currently set orders below $550.

Overall, my method in the last year and a half has resulted in about the same amount of funds invested into BTC (although I do continue to put spare money into BTC in a kind of dollar cost averaging, but it is not any kind of high rate like it was during the first year and a half or so that I was mostly accumulating),  my lowering my average cost per BTC from a bit more than $500 to currently around $420, and I have way more cash in my possession (like I said a bit more than 8% of the total value of my BTC holdings are in fiat), and I have about 10% more BTC than I had when I started trading in October 2015.

I will admit that my system for measuring my BTC profit levels is not really scientific because it involves a lot of buying/selling activities and BTC and dollars floating in several accounts, and including a currently 400% increase in the price of BTC... so it is a bit of a moving target to figure out some of the specifics on a rolling basis.

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[JayJuanGee]

If you assume price = constant + superimposed sinusoidal curve, with the amplitude of the curve big enough to trigger buying and selling, then by your method, you repeatedly buy low, sell high, over and over again. Which means you make money, assuming the spread and transaction costs are less than what you earn from buying low and selling high.

Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.

I'd like to see that proof
A couple of problems I see with it:
1) you are talking about piecewise sinusoids (right? reset at each sudden price change?). That complicates any kind of frequency domain analysis. Lots of noise.
2) After a price change, how do you determine what phase (and amplitude) to start the next piece at?

If you really did mean fourier analysis of the whole price data, then you would see low frequency cycles with a bit of luck (but too many people already found those, so they're tiny). The sudden price moves add way too much noise to be able to detect anything sinusoidal at day trader frequencies.

I think that I understand that your criticism may encapsulate that humans are way too inconsistent in order to make such a system work mathematically as profitable - however, couldn't you program a bot to take out some of the human error and instead of having it set at really close intervals (like they probably do in china with no fees), they set them at intervals like $10 - or maybe more accurately to use percentage moves, like a .5 or 1% move in one direction triggers a sell, and then every equal increment.  Then buy backs would be 1% or more below the sales price.  Of course, there are variations about what increments to use and what quantities.

Percentages would definitely be the way to go, and the optimal percentages would depend on how wide you expect the price fluctuations to be. For example: if you expect LOTS and LOTS of +/- 10% fluctuations, then you're better off buying at the -10% and selling at the +10%. Suppose you model lots of +/- 3% fluctuations with very infrequent +/- 50% fluctuations ... in that case your idealized bot would probably have a pretty complex behavior. Deriving what exactly the ideal bot should do would be a very interesting exercise.

Since in the real world, I would not have any kind of real clue about how to program a bot (without having to engage in a lot of learning), therefore, I tend to set pretty small increments in terms of dollars (these days $10 or $15 increments.  I was doing other variations in the past - almost every variation down to a couple of dollars when there were lower fee options available to me, and price moves were a larger percentage of the overall change in value), and I do that because it is a bit easier to keep track..

Also, probably in recent weeks I have been trading way too much (even though I increased some of my intervals to like $15), so it is occupying more of my time than fruitful to be having to reset buys after sells have executed, so possibly in the future, I will trade on much larger swings in order that it is not as time consuming (which a bot would likely solve a lot of those kinds of issues - if the bot doesn't get programed in such a way that would fuck everything up because of unforeseen scenarios, for example or some other programing error).

Also, you have to take into account:
- risk of exchange getting hacked
- tax implications of selling
- exchange fees and spread

I bet someday someone is going to build a bot using ethereum (or some such tool) that will do this automatically using peer to peer exchanges. Of course that can't happen until:
- p2p exchanges gain more traction
- we can move fiat around on the blockchain (like Tether-USD, but with a more established backer and a larger market cap)

Yep... combination of bot and other attempts at arbitrage and the extent that the events are taxable or result in unanticipated losses.  I did have some losses - still unclear from Bitfinex and also I had some losses through some of my direct trades that I attempt to fold into my overall cost of doing business.  My average cost per BTC accounts for these events, to the best of my ability to figure it out, but yeah varying kinds of bots are going to evolve in the future and exchanges,  scams and other risks are going to continue to change, too  - and probably more and more of a target the higher the price of BTCs.

[harrymmmm]

I was responding to this statement:

Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.

But since you offered a challenge ...

I've never done the proof formally, but the statement to be proved would be something along these lines:
- assume X% allocation bitcoin, and 100-X % allocation fiat at the beginning
- assume price starts at $A and ends at $B, with arbitrary path from A to B
- assume zero spread and zero fees (makes the math simpler, but you'd have to bear in mind this is an oversimplification of the model)
Strategy 1: no buying and no selling at all
Strategy 2: if your percent allocation of wealth in bitcoin rises above or below X% by some fixed amount D (let's say, +/- 5%) due to bitcoin price fluctuations, then buy or sell as needed to keep the % allocation within X +/- D %.

For example: if you set X at 50% at the beginning and D at 5%, then your bot will buy or sell as needed to keep your percent allocation within the range of 45% to 55%

The proof would basically say that Strategy 2 works better than Strategy 1. I think a few more assumptions are needed though. I'm not sure, but I think Strategy 2 is better if we assume that neither bitcoin nor the fiat becomes worthless. Suppose, for example, that the fiat hyperinflates a la Zimbabwe in 2009 or whenever. In that case, Strategy 2 would definitely be a BAD idea, because by the end you would have sold all your bitcoin and you'd have a zillion Zimbabwean dollars worth nothing. But if we assume the fiat currency stays stable, and bitcoin goes to the moon but does so in a very volatile fashion, then I'm pretty sure Strategy 2 can be proven to be superior.

EDIT:
Actually I might also have to assume that you start and end at the same price. Obviously if the price of bitcoin shoots up to $1M, you're better off if you didn't sell any of it at all during the rise, which means Strategy 1 would be better.

[/quote]
Since you assume a trend a priori, ANY trading on the volatility around that trend is more profitable than the simple hold strategy 1. You simply sell when the price is above the trend, and buy when it's below.

In practice of course you can't assume the trend.

[simmo77]

hi guys!

you are not able to break 250.  

remember? 

Remember this guy? He's still here reading but for some reason doesn't have anything to say...

The professor always baffled me. Come back stolfi

If only he'd taken up those offers of free BTC from forum members, or even bought a couple, he could afford to buy a clue now...


Jorgi Boy, we know you're still here... Whenever you're ready to man up and admit you were wrong, and admit you are a massive worthless beartroll that has been wasting soooo many hours/days/years of your pathetic existence, we'll be here waiting.


 

[savetherainforest]

I see that JJG is at it again! ... He found fresh blood / meat.


Btw... I forgot to answer to you I think...

 I'm still resentful......      

Don't worry... sometimes we still partially read your comments when we forget to check the username...  





Anyway... Choo!!!..choo!!!...

[Ibian]

I'm getting a lot of people who wanna buy my coins. It's weird! Price is super high, they should be selling! Not that I'm gonna turn them down, of course, but humans are fucking weird man.

[Yves_Oluchione]

Happy 2017 to everyone, I think the next step is the 1050$ if it breaks i don't have any idea what would be the next stop of this rally, maybe some old bitcoiners have an idea ?

I think that we need to look at the current ATH as the next stop and a potential resistance point...

There is considerable potential that the current ATH would not be a resistance point because we are already so close to it, but I think that we still need to see how this price range plays out between $1060 and $1180

Seems to be plausible, i'm very cautious because it's my first time as a bitcoiner as i experience a rally a these prices, so thanks for your thoughts

If you are nervous about retaining value with your BTC holdings, you can sell a little bit on the way up.  Usually you do not want to sell too much because you could end up with a bunch of fiat and a lacking in BTC.  

Everyone is different regarding how they will do it, but I tend to sell 1% to 2% of my BTC holdings every $100 price rise of BTC in about every $10 to $15 increments (in other words staggered in both directions - up and down), and then I buy back when BTC prices go back down... therefore, on average I end up selling less than 1% for every $100 (and my BTC holdings grow overall with the same amount of investment, more or less).  

I started this selling strategy at a bit over $250 (but my selling between $250 and about $400 was an even smaller percentage of my BTC holdings because my BTC portfolio was then in the red) and today, I still have nearly 92% of my BTC holdings in BTC and the other 8% in fiat.  

Some kind of a strategy of taking profits (even small amounts) can help you to be less nervous during BTC volatile periods (which are almost inevitable) but I think that even with extensive practice a lot of us get nervous no matter what when the price becomes really volatile (especially when it goes down), so we have to figure out ways to hedge and to safeguard some of our nervousness that are tailored to our own situations.

Thanks for the advises, I'm not so nervous because i have started by investing little amounts of fiat every months and i didn't invest a lot since november, also, what i've invested i consider if i lose this amount it won't change my life (even if i wouldn't be happy), but i wanted to trade a little bit but i was nervous so i was just hodl
But it's an interesting strategy to start trading at minimal risk, thanks i'll try that

I completely agree with what appears to be your initial strategy to invest small amounts into BTC on a regular basis that you could afford to lose, if worst case scenario were to arise.  That should be a continued strategy with any investment (and especially true with known volatile investments such as bitcoin).

Also, I understand that if you are in a kind of initial BTC accumulation phase of your investment, you cannot really justify selling any part of it.. because you feel that you have so little and you are continuing to accumulate and to buy on dips, etc.  

I accumulated BTC for more than a year and a half before I created a selling (or BTC trading) strategy... but partly my hand was forced to keep accumulating BTC during that time because during my initial investment BTC prices continued to go down for the first year (2014) and then only became somewhat flat then next 6-8 months in 2015, which allowed me to accumulate some coins at the lower prices and then to create a BTC trading strategy that I considered to be profitable because my strategy only allowed me to sell coins from the ones that I had accumulated below the then selling price (as prices went up - so my average buy price was less than $250 for those coins that I authorized selling some of the profits)....


So in essence I divided my total BTC investment into mostly three components, and initially, I held 2 of the portions that continued to be in the red and only traded from the portion of the coins that was in the green... as price continued to rise, then my other two portions of my BTC portfolio merged into the green or at least closer in the green which allowed me to authorize myself to trade more coins and a higher portion of my BTC portfolio  (my cost basis for the coins was a bit of a moving target as the price changed and as I continued to buy and sell, but initially my price averages for the three groups were approximately as follows: 1) below $250, 2) below $350 and 3) about $500.

I created some other limits too in order to only trade from "profits".  For example, if you have accumulated 10BTC, then every dollar that BTC prices goes up, your portfolio goes up in value by $10, which is $10 profits.  So, if BTC prices goes up $10, then your profits of your BTC holdings are $100, and initially I authorized myself only to trade from my BTC profits (and my authorization varied over time, but trading 30% to 50% of my profits seemed to be somewhat reasonable for me, but I know sometimes people will want to trade either more or less of their profits based on their own personality, view of bitcoin and/or otherwise overall financial circumstances).

Thanks for all these informations, for your strategy a little interrogation to help myself when you sell, at what level do you fix your buy back ? Level at selling - fees - 2 or 3 % ? I think I'll do regularly this in a little percentage until a reliable consensus for the scalability of the bitcoin will be determined, I think you could play with your method as long as this problematic remains unsolved, but I think if this problematic comes to an end the best strategy would be hold & accumulate with buying or  proposing services/works based on your specifications/qualifications for remuneration in btc, as mentionned by BTCTrader in the case where Bitcoin could explose and replace the role of the fiat without being limited by the hashing power of the network and their fees for the microtransactions.

NB : Sorry for my poor English syntax, i didn't learn it by the books :/

Surely, you need to figure out a comfortable percentage for yourself for your buy back location and your sell location and your amount.  I have varying fee amounts, generally between 0% and .4% (so usually the most for the fees is .8% to account for both the sell and the buy back, so the buy back price should be at least more than .8% lower when I am paying the highest rates.. the most usual fee on both ends is about .4%).    

By the way, fees differ on each location, and currently, I trade on BTC-e, Bitfinex, Bitstamp, Gemini and GDAX.

(my local bitcoin's is sporadic and also direct buys and sells to individuals - and I am not currently using Uphold, even though it is available - and we all know that Circle is no longer functioning for buying/selling)


  I am selling about .2% of my total bitcoin holdings approximately every $10 to $15 that the BTC prices rise with the understanding of the possibility that those sold coins could forever be left behind (but I will still have the cash from those coins that I could either completely take off the table or just use it for trading around, direct sales, arbitrage and even Localbitcoin sales and purchases/sells that are profitable).  

So for example, if I sell at .1BTC at each of the intervals of $999.28, $1014.28, and $1029.28, then as each of the orders fill I may set an order to buy back .11BTC or even .105BTC at each of the intervals of around $981.62, $996.62 and $1011.62.  In recent months, I had usually been planning to buy back a bit more BTC than I am selling because I am attempting to keep my bitcoin holdings up and not to bleed off the amount of my BTC sales more than necessary or more than my comfort level - I am currently at about 91.79% BTC, but I would feel a bit better to be above 92%, but I am not really too stressed about it, even though I feel that I have a bit more money in cash than I would prefer.    

From time to time, I tweak the amounts and the intervals of my buying and selling based on the fee at that exchange, but I will leave orders on the books that have not been filled for quite a long time, and I have buy orders going all the way down to about $550, and currently sell orders up to $1,220.

In other words, when I sell BTC, it is already in my head that there is a possibility that I will never buy back some of my lower orders at the originally intended buy back price, and after a while I remove those old and lower orders from the table and use that money for other purposes.  In that regard, I used to have some buy back orders all the way down to $240, but I have removed all my orders between $240 and $550 and have put that money to use in other kinds of ways - for example trading on local bitcoins and arbitrage opportunities but if I need to I still have that money in my BTC trading funds and I could reopen those buy orders at the low prices if BTC prices were to drop below my currently set orders below $550.

Overall, my method in the last year and a half has resulted in about the same amount of funds invested into BTC (although I do continue to put spare money into BTC in a kind of dollar cost averaging, but it is not any kind of high rate like it was during the first year and a half or so that I was mostly accumulating),  my lowering my average cost per BTC from a bit more than $500 to currently around $420, and I have way more cash in my possession (like I said a bit more than 8% of the total value of my BTC holdings are in fiat), and I have about 10% more BTC than I had when I started trading in October 2015.

I will admit that my system for measuring my BTC profit levels is not really scientific because it involves a lot of buying/selling activities and BTC and dollars floating in several accounts, and including a currently 400% increase in the price of BTC... so it is a bit of a moving target to figure out some of the specifics on a rolling basis.

No, I think your strategy is mathematically accurate when uncertainty hit the bitcoin, it allows you to increase your btc/fiat stocks without invest more fiat, i think that now that uncertainty is more on fiat money (in my thoughts) you've got to move up your percentage of btc holdings, this is logic so this is just a question of momentums and be quick to adapt your percentages based on the moving market and fundamentals after all. My goal is just to increase little by little my holdings and if this strategy makes me waste some fiat at the end if i manage to have a good repartition i think it's still a winning strategy. Thanks for the tips this is highly appreciated.

[talkingleaves]

I'm getting a lot of people who wanna buy my coins. It's weird! Price is super high, they should be selling! Not that I'm gonna turn them down, of course, but humans are fucking weird man.

guess you could always just keep raising your price and see what happens 

[Ibian]

I'm getting a lot of people who wanna buy my coins. It's weird! Price is super high, they should be selling! Not that I'm gonna turn them down, of course, but humans are fucking weird man.

guess you could always just keep raising your price and see what happens 

In time, all in good time. For now accumulate customers, then raise prices when and if I can't keep up with the demand.

[JayJuanGee]

Don't worry... sometimes we still partially read your comments when we forget to check the username...  

Look......    Savetherainforest is a "we"        possibly a royal "we" ?   

[Dafar]

$3K per BTC by end of 2017 or bust....

[keithers]

Will be pretty frickin sweet if $1000 becomes the new floor!

[r0ach]

$3K per BTC by end of 2017 or bust....

[Bitcoin Addict666]

is anyone even shocked.  the legendary  poster   loaded  said  "soon".   page 16148.     for those that dont no  who loaded is,  hes  a verified  btc fat cat  that  perdicted the 2013 rise.   when loaded  says "soon", u better put ur moon boots on.

[JimboToronto]

$3K per BTC by end of 2017 or bust....

I thought it was $3200 as decreed by that ancient oracle "adamstgBit" who has passed on to another realm.

So is it written. Verily it shall come to pass.

[Przemax]

I'm getting a lot of people who wanna buy my coins. It's weird! Price is super high, they should be selling! Not that I'm gonna turn them down, of course, but humans are fucking weird man.

guess you could always just keep raising your price and see what happens 

In time, all in good time. For now accumulate customers, then raise prices when and if I can't keep up with the demand.

Yeah humans are fucked up royaly. They dont want to buy cheap stuff. They need someone to suggest them something is worth something otherwise they are clueless. I mean most of the people. Like 95%.

[PoolMinor]

is anyone even shocked.  the legendary  poster   loaded  said  "soon".   page 16148.     for those that dont no  who loaded is,  hes  a verified  btc fat cat  that  perdicted the 2013 rise.   when loaded  says "soon", u better put ur moon boots on.

Except for when he said "soon" on March 10 2015....the price tumbled down from $300 to $210. 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg10728870#msg10728870

[jbreher]

Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series.

Not quite. Any periodic curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves. The trick is in knowing the periodicity of $=f(t). protip: that f() ain't periodic.

[jbreher]

It will be interesting to see what other people think about my gold/silver/bitcoin allocation tables.

I've always thought the FOA idea of revaluing gold at $55,000 was kind of absurd since India and the Arabs have so much of it. The west would just be transferring power to 3rd world nations.

If official figures are to be believed, then the US is actually in good shape with regards to your scenario.

I've been collating figures over the last several years:
All monetary gold: 33000 tonnes
Us has actually 8133 tonnes
ECB  10788
Russia 1500*
China admits to 1823 tonnes (probably around 4000 total)
UK 310 tons left
IMF 2800 tonnes

Figures are pretty sloppy, but from rough order of magnitude, the current monetary powers seem to roughly match gold holdings.

Of course, nobody has seen inside Fort Knox for decades...

[hv_]

$3K per BTC by end of 2017 or bust....

I thought it was $3200 as decreed by that ancient oracle "adamstgBit" who has passed on to another realm.

So is it written. Verily it shall come to pass.

Lets first reach 2017 $  in 2017.