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Question: Oct. 31 Closing Price:
$0 - 4 (5.1%)
<$7,000 - 10 (12.8%)
$7,000-$7,500 - 5 (6.4%)
$7,500-$8,000 - 10 (12.8%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 15 (19.2%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 10 (12.8%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 5 (6.4%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 4 (5.1%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 5 (6.4%)
>$10,500 - 4 (5.1%)
>$20,000 - 6 (7.7%)
Total Voters: 78

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21410212 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (109 posts by 22 users deleted.)
gembitz
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January 02, 2017, 09:56:12 PM

^what are we going straight up to $2000 now or should we wait? 

Cool

 HODL !!!
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January 02, 2017, 09:57:19 PM

Also new bitcoin client released, should boost price.

new client boosting price? haha that's a good one.  Cheesy

indeed.


No wonder and now I knew bitcoin is not just a coin cos I checked price acouplr of minutes and it $1009 but it now $1016. Gosh I'm so glad to be among this history in making and I love you bitcoin Smiley
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January 02, 2017, 09:59:10 PM
Last edit: January 04, 2017, 03:51:05 PM by HI-TEC99

^what are we going straight up to $2000 now or should we wait?  

Cool

 HODL !!!


My guess is up to $1500 then a bit of a correction before higher.

Disclaimer: My guesses are typically so bad that I gave up gambling on them.

HODL
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January 02, 2017, 10:01:39 PM

hey what are the big exchanges these days? i've been primarily watching bitstamp ever since the gox collapse.
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January 02, 2017, 10:03:26 PM
Last edit: January 02, 2017, 10:15:57 PM by r0ach

It will be interesting to see what other people think about my gold/silver/bitcoin allocation tables.

Quote
I've always thought the FOA idea of revaluing gold at $55,000 was kind of absurd since India and the Arabs have so much of it. The west would just be transferring power to 3rd world nations.

If official figures are to be believed, then the US is actually in good shape with regards to your scenario.

I've been collating figures over the last several years:
All monetary gold: 33000 tonnes
Us has actually 8133 tonnes
ECB  10788
Russia 1500*
China admits to 1823 tonnes (probably around 4000 total)
UK 310 tons left
IMF 2800 tonnes

Figures are pretty sloppy, but from rough order of magnitude, the current monetary powers seem to roughly match gold holdings.

Of course, nobody has seen inside Fort Knox for decades...

The Indian government has only 600 tons, but the Indian public has....over 20,000 tons.  Canada has basically zero gold, and their citizens also probably have little.  So the FOA argument of revaluing gold to some astronomical number would definitely be transferring HUGE power from the 1st world to the 3rd world in a lot of ways.  This is why I don't really see a gold hegemony as benefiting anyone that would actually be pulling the trigger on making it happen.  

If that actually happened, the R-selection giant mass of people in India would then all be rich and go from 1 billion to 4 billion people while the US and other nations have to export all their resources to them.  Nobody at round table groups like the CFR wants to see a scenario like that of mass overpopulation and making India king of the world.  A lot of people claim that since CBs hoard gold, that they will force gold hegemony in a monetary reset/recapitalization, but it just doesn't make sense in practice.

If they went for a bimetallism approach, nobody actually owns large amounts of silver, and they could just acquire it for cheap to dilute the power of places like India's gold holdings if they were forced to use metals for recapitalization.  It appears both JP Morgan (possibly acting as an agent of the govt) + China are currently acquiring huge amounts of silver as I talked about here:

https://steemit.com/money/@r0achtheunsavory/if-there-s-any-plausible-conspiracy-involving-silver-and-bitcoin-this-is-it

It's also possible Bitcoin was released to accomplish this goal due to the problems of them recapitalizing using metals.  The point is, to avoid a new dark ages, they will have to do some type of recapitalization event in a monetary reset that extinguishes debt, and the only real choices at play involve gold, silver, or bitcoin being used in some manner.  Bitcoin doesn't seem quite uh, realistic to have the entire world monetary system run on it, but it's definitely one of those backup to a backup plan options.  Metals seem like a much more realistic option, but they would either have to take all of India and random Arab nation's gold or go the bimetallism option I spoke of.
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January 02, 2017, 10:12:46 PM

hey what are the big exchanges these days? i've been primarily watching bitstamp ever since the gox collapse.

Okcoin and Huobi, really. Bitfinex lost a lot of market share after the hack, so there really isn't a dominant USD exchange anymore imo. So it's between finex, stamp, and gdax for usd.

For futures, Okcoin. Bitmex is gaining some popularity. I don't actively watch it right now, but I feel like I will in the future. Need a few more monitors first. And one of those mount thingies to put them above my other monitors lmao.

edits because i'm a drunk asshole
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January 02, 2017, 10:20:35 PM

Not much of a "dip" is it??  Cheesy
Haha, I was away for a few hours and didn't notice the dip at all. the price still looks pretty bullish to me right now...

On bitstamp it's only $19 below the high, it's already back up $23 from today's low. A $42 dip for today is just noise.
gembitz
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January 02, 2017, 10:25:33 PM

Not much of a "dip" is it??  Cheesy
Haha, I was away for a few hours and didn't notice the dip at all. the price still looks pretty bullish to me right now...

On bitstamp it's only $19 below the high, it's already back up $23 from today's low. A $42 dip for today is just noise.


$200000+ dollar BTC possible!? ===>




 Cool


~we are early to the party!
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January 02, 2017, 10:29:13 PM


They do make it look like it was the Trump election that's what started the sudden rise and surge in the price.
Right timing maybe. But they can't say it is because of it.
Where is that Trump Coin again? Cheesy
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January 02, 2017, 10:55:42 PM

MUST WATCH FOR EVERY CRYPTO ENTHUSIAST WHO WANTS TO KNOW WHERE BITCOIN IS HEADING IN 2017


News URL : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVAI07f-5M0
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January 02, 2017, 10:58:56 PM

MUST WATCH FOR EVERY CRYPTO ENTHUSIAST WHO WANTS TO KNOW WHERE BITCOIN IS HEADING IN 2017


News URL : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVAI07f-5M0


1 hour video! Is there a section on btc I can skip to?
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January 02, 2017, 11:23:33 PM

Clif High is the same oddball prognosticator who predicted nuclear war in 2010. You may as well get investment advice from Rush Limbaugh. Take a look at his website at halfpasthuman.com.
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January 02, 2017, 11:33:59 PM

MUST WATCH FOR EVERY CRYPTO ENTHUSIAST WHO WANTS TO KNOW WHERE BITCOIN IS HEADING IN 2017


News URL : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVAI07f-5M0


1 hour video! Is there a section on btc I can skip to?

Start from around the 20th minute.

Clif High is the same oddball prognosticator who predicted nuclear war in 2010. You may as well get investment advice from Rush Limbaugh. Take a look at his website at halfpasthuman.com.

I respect him a lot due to his "unique" way of analysis.
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January 02, 2017, 11:40:37 PM

If you assume price = constant + superimposed sinusoidal curve, with the amplitude of the curve big enough to trigger buying and selling, then by your method, you repeatedly buy low, sell high, over and over again. Which means you make money, assuming the spread and transaction costs are less than what you earn from buying low and selling high.

Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.

I'd like to see that proof Smiley
A couple of problems I see with it:
1) you are talking about piecewise sinusoids (right? reset at each sudden price change?). That complicates any kind of frequency domain analysis. Lots of noise.
2) After a price change, how do you determine what phase (and amplitude) to start the next piece at?

If you really did mean fourier analysis of the whole price data, then you would see low frequency cycles with a bit of luck (but too many people already found those, so they're tiny). The sudden price moves add way too much noise to be able to detect anything sinusoidal at day trader frequencies.

I trade much higher frequency and thrive on the volatility.. I'd say usually 20-100 trades per active trading hour..

I determine where to start the next position 90% based on what is happening in the books..
The books are constantly changing, so I need to get into the rythem of the certin exchange, stare at the books for 10 minutes or so to get a feel for the waves, enter positions when you see the waves in the books coming to push the price buoy back and forth..

I have found on huobi and ok that their are a lot of book "setups" where they try to make you think one thing and then they do the exact opposite..
Like they will put up a sellwall and buy into it themselves right before they dump, you think it's going through the wall and then WHAM they slam it when everyone is buying..

I flip tons of small price movements and try to stay away from longer term "swing" style trading unless the pattern is painfully obvious.. Like last night I went to sleep at abot 4X margin long and was happy this morning.. Made another 10% today in my morning routine trading for the first couple hours when I wake up.. I wake up staring at the books until I see something I have to have and then it's on..  

Also, when I say profits I mean increasing my BTC stash, I could give a crap how much of an alt or fiat I can make but rather just focus on making more BTC..
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January 02, 2017, 11:46:34 PM

1 hour video! Is there a section on btc I can skip to?

he's predicting that the chinese government will get hundreds of millions more online this year and wholeheartedly embrace bitcoin at the same time.

uh huh. i won't be betting the farm on that.
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January 02, 2017, 11:49:08 PM

If you assume price = constant + superimposed sinusoidal curve, with the amplitude of the curve big enough to trigger buying and selling, then by your method, you repeatedly buy low, sell high, over and over again. Which means you make money, assuming the spread and transaction costs are less than what you earn from buying low and selling high.

Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.

I'd like to see that proof Smiley
A couple of problems I see with it:
1) you are talking about piecewise sinusoids (right? reset at each sudden price change?). That complicates any kind of frequency domain analysis. Lots of noise.
2) After a price change, how do you determine what phase (and amplitude) to start the next piece at?

If you really did mean fourier analysis of the whole price data, then you would see low frequency cycles with a bit of luck (but too many people already found those, so they're tiny). The sudden price moves add way too much noise to be able to detect anything sinusoidal at day trader frequencies.

I think that I understand that your criticism may encapsulate that humans are way too inconsistent in order to make such a system work mathematically as profitable - however, couldn't you program a bot to take out some of the human error and instead of having it set at really close intervals (like they probably do in china with no fees), they set them at intervals like $10 - or maybe more accurately to use percentage moves, like a .5 or 1% move in one direction triggers a sell, and then every equal increment.  Then buy backs would be 1% or more below the sales price.  Of course, there are variations about what increments to use and what quantities.

Percentages would definitely be the way to go, and the optimal percentages would depend on how wide you expect the price fluctuations to be. For example: if you expect LOTS and LOTS of +/- 10% fluctuations, then you're better off buying at the -10% and selling at the +10%. Suppose you model lots of +/- 3% fluctuations with very infrequent +/- 50% fluctuations ... in that case your idealized bot would probably have a pretty complex behavior. Deriving what exactly the ideal bot should do would be a very interesting exercise.

If I were to program a high frequency bot I would program it to use the data of the books/depth and not the charts..
Chart shows the past, maybe can predict longer term trends up to a few hours..
Books show the future..
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January 02, 2017, 11:53:15 PM

Anyone remember which bitcoin price chart had that neat flashing "ATH" symbol when ATH was reached. I wanna make sure i get that experience again. Smiley

Either bitcoinwisdom or bitcoinity ...



Bitcoinity does those kinds of things at a variety of important threshold events ..
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January 02, 2017, 11:56:58 PM

Who is leading this 'dump'? It would be nice to see 1000$ hold.
every gesture towards a reversal is failing at the moment.
China too strong.

MRW bears and plebe non-hodlers try to dip BTC down to three digits but fail so hard their efforts are barely noticed:

https://i.sli.mg/kxp6Hr.jpg
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January 03, 2017, 12:16:19 AM

LOL Who sold at the bottom?  Cheesy

I did prolly 20 times or so but I guess I bought the bottom more often than sold..
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January 03, 2017, 12:16:42 AM

If you assume price = constant + superimposed sinusoidal curve, with the amplitude of the curve big enough to trigger buying and selling, then by your method, you repeatedly buy low, sell high, over and over again. Which means you make money, assuming the spread and transaction costs are less than what you earn from buying low and selling high.

Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.

EDIT:
Actually I might also have to assume that you start and end at the same price. Obviously if the price of bitcoin shoots up to $1M, you're better off if you didn't sell any of it at all during the rise, which means Strategy 1 would be better.

 All trading strategies have a threshold where they stop being profitable. The rebuy approach works best when ranging. It works worst when on a uptrend with no corrections.
 Even if there is retracing, that retracing must match your thresholds. In the worst-case event the corrections can fall just short of your rebuy levels.

 I built a spreadsheet to play around with formalizing these parameters a few years back.
EDIT - Old version:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jv97ERhahE7pP5xAVIXtHEE89Ew4CHiz7imtwsYw8zg/edit#gid=4 (Make a private copy before entering your own values.)

New version:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JDYALoV4KR_pvX5vuQww99t4hwqqmuHuAI9CZWhFgt0/edit#gid=0

In the end you are given a list of several points based on math. The variables you control:

 Net worth outside of bit coin, net worth in bitcoin, desired percentage of assets to hold in bit coin,  granularity of sell targets,  percent of funds to use for repurchases, percent correction rebuy target.

 As an example:  John Doe holds 10 bit coins, as a value of $5000 outside of bit coin, wishes to have 66% of his value in bit coin. Sells occur each 20% increase.  Revise occur when each cell target has dropped in value by half.

 This plan would start out balanced as $10,000 in bitcoin value, 5000 outside, matches the 66% balance. As bitch queen goes up you will be forced to sell more to stay to that balance level. Let's say we jump up to $10,000. At that point you would sell your $10,000 target. Now  in the future, that specific cell will only ever be repurchased if you hit $5000 or lower.

This is the key to the rebuy principle. You don't know how deep the corrections will go.
 If it ever only corrected to 6000, you would never revise anything. If it would have corrected to 2500, you could have three but twice as many. You can't to know in advance. So you have to guess on depth.

 Now, the depth of corrections varies in a rally based on how overextended it is.
So I played around with a "heat index " that let the amount that you sold at price targets increase as you deviate farther from moving averages. This lets you sell more when you believe you are overextended, but again there are no guarantees.

 It's a little cryptic to use with no explanation, and it did not have a ton of interest back in the day. I can find a link to the thread that describes it if anyone is interested now.

 Regardless, it is an important topic, and one that is good to have a good plan for, before prices go crazy and emotions can take over. Also crucial is the tax considerations of your buys and sells, long versus short term capital gains, but I am neither a lawyer nor an accountant so that stuff and all formal recommendations are each individual's responsibility.

I believe that I agree with a lot of your principles and your charts seem to contain a lot of the same ideas that I put into practice, which is a combination of selling and rebuying and also considerations regarding taking some of the profits off of the table.


In some sense, your target sell points are way more grand than mine, since I actually started to employ mine at $250 and have been employing them all the way up the price range to today's price with plans to continue to employ the techniques into the future....

So, actually it can be a bit of an unknown whether when you continue to sell on the way up if the price is ever going to return to the lower price points in which you can buy back, and therefore that money would potentially be useable for other purposes, such as direct buying/selling, arbitrage opportunities or maybe just cash flow management.

I think that part of the key, no matter what, is staying cognizant of your accumulation goals and your what kind of proportionality (BTC/fiat percentages) that you would like to have at various price points.

About a year ago, I created a chart like this to give me guidance (and I tweak it from time to time as my thought may change from time to time)


Price                          BTC Allocation
 
$200-350                     97-99.5%
$350-450                     96-99%
$450-550                     92-98%
$550-650                     90-96%
$650-850                     85-94%
$850-1250             84-92%
$1250-2000             83-91%
$2000-3000             82-90%
$3000-5000             55-84%
$5000-10000             50-80%
$10000-20000             48-78%
$20000-30000             45-75%
$30000-50000             43-73%



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