Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[klondike_bar]

ATH in price is only one side of the coin. the other is market cap.

in 2013 the market cap was ~12B at its peak, and litecoin was less than $100M.

today bitcoin is almost $19B, and the next 5 top coins have a combined $2B.

cryptocurrency as an entire sector is up 8 *BILLION* dollars, or ~66% since the 2013 peak.

$8 billion has NOT been poured in since 2013. Supply in all of those coins have risen essentially people hodling = marketcap rising. I bet less than a few hundred million $ has been put in but essentially people are willing to hodl coins more and more as they lose trust in the governments and services appear that allow you to bypass fiat and spend your crypto anywhere fiat is accepted.

duh, thats how market cap works.

[Meuh6879]

please someone quote me:

the ETF is nothing but trouble for bitcoin. best case: it fails, we crash and recover.

done

double done

confirmed.

[sidhujag]

ATH in price is only one side of the coin. the other is market cap.

in 2013 the market cap was ~12B at its peak, and litecoin was less than $100M.

today bitcoin is almost $19B, and the next 5 top coins have a combined $2B.

cryptocurrency as an entire sector is up 8 *BILLION* dollars, or ~66% since the 2013 peak.

$8 billion has NOT been poured in since 2013. Supply in all of those coins have risen essentially people hodling = marketcap rising. I bet less than a few hundred million $ has been put in but essentially people are willing to hodl coins more and more as they lose trust in the governments and services appear that allow you to bypass fiat and spend your crypto anywhere fiat is accepted.

duh, thats how market cap works.

Yea i guss.. its just that many people end up making it seem like 8 billion has been poured in when it has not. The cap increases for sure..
So heres an.interesting thought experiment. What if you decreased supply to keep cap the same.but raise the price? Would that still be the same? I would say that there is a fundamental difference.between the two in that in one the opportunity cost changes and essentially goes back to the idea that velocity drives the true value of money. If supply increased but people held.. the opportunity cost is less than if 8 billion was put in to drive the cap up while supply remained static. The extra liquidity increases opportunity and thus you cant say increasing cap.via decreasing supply == increasing cap via increased liquidity and thus price.

[kurious]

ATH in price is only one side of the coin. the other is market cap.

in 2013 the market cap was ~12B at its peak, and litecoin was less than $100M.

today bitcoin is almost $19B, and the next 5 top coins have a combined $2B.

cryptocurrency as an entire sector is up 8 *BILLION* dollars, or ~66% since the 2013 peak.

$8 billion has NOT been poured in since 2013. Supply in all of those coins have risen essentially people hodling = marketcap rising. I bet less than a few hundred million $ has been put in but essentially people are willing to hodl coins more and more as they lose trust in the governments and services appear that allow you to bypass fiat and spend your crypto anywhere fiat is accepted.

duh, thats how market cap works.

Yea i guss.. its just that many people end up making it seem like 8 billion has been poured in when it has not. The cap increases for sure..
So heres an.interesting thought experiment. What if you decreased supply to keep cap the same.but raise the price? Would that still be the same? I would say that there is a fundamental difference.between the two in that in one the opportunity cost changes and essentially goes back to the idea that velocity drives the true value of money. If supply increased but people held.. the opportunity cost is less than if 8 billion was put in to drive the cap up while supply remained static. The extra liquidity increases opportunity and thus you cant say increasing cap.via decreasing supply == increasing cap via increased liquidity and thus price.

If people held - that does not decide the price of the extra supply.

Price is determined by what people are prepared to buy the available supply at.  If that supply increases, then it does not matter if everyone who has the existing supply holds, the price becomes the price that the (increased) available supply is bought at.

Increased supply (if demand does not change) will normally decrease price.  The holders do not affect this, the buyers (and sellers) of the available supply do.  Decreased supply will normally increase price if demand is constant.

Market cap is useful in any traded asset, in that the measure is always the same; number of units of the asset that are available, multiplied by the current price of an available unit that the market will pay.  Any asset where units are uniform, that is reasonably easy to obtain with a known market price can be valued like this, thus it is a valuable metric.

Saying 'the money was not actually paid' is not relevant as this applies to all of such assets.  Apple shares are not all traded every day, many are held by pension schemes, but the company is still valued as the price of its issued shares multiplied by the number issued.

If the price goes up, then the value of all the available units is more valuable.

We all see our coins as 'worth' the current price. So we all believe in the market cap being an accurate measure.  Of course if everyone sells price will not be maintained, and the same applies if no one sells.  Supply and demand affects price and market cap equally, therefore it is a useful measure.

[HI-TEC99]

It's going back up to the old bitstamp ATH. I doubt the dump won't last long. After the banks open on Monday it will probably break above the gox ATH.

[becoin]

It's going back up to the old bitstamp ATH. I doubt the dump won't last long. After the banks open on Monday it will probably break above the gox ATH.

Bitcoin price movements are soooooo predictable. Incrementally open longs during sharp price drops and never open short positions during sharp appreciation. I love this game! It is very easy to make money!

[Gyrsur]

It's going back up to the old bitstamp ATH. I doubt the dump won't last long. After the banks open on Monday it will probably break above the gox ATH.

Bitcoin price movements are soooooo predictable. Incrementally open longs during sharp price drops and never open short positions during sharp appreciation. I love this game! It is very easy to make money!

you mean "buy the f***ing dip"?

EDIT: https://youtu.be/0akBdQa55b4

[Searing]

It's going back up to the old bitstamp ATH. I doubt the dump won't last long. After the banks open on Monday it will probably break above the gox ATH.

Yeah ....just for a mental game of .....about time that happens...I'd like the mt. gox all time high shattered and the price of BTC to go above gold

and that be the NEW floor at worst...

mainly because I was a newbie in 2013 and the ATH was made...and it would be just mentally nice to have it all be new territory on price and adoption

from that point on.......no more revisiting the past ATH from 2013 and of course just to be 1 up on gold price as a fact would also be nice

petty perhaps..but then again I have no life...what this as a 'gimmie' (I'm on here an't I ......thus rest my case of needing lame stuff like this......life wise)

[becoin]

It's going back up to the old bitstamp ATH. I doubt the dump won't last long. After the banks open on Monday it will probably break above the gox ATH.

Bitcoin price movements are soooooo predictable. Incrementally open longs during sharp price drops and never open short positions during sharp appreciation. I love this game! It is very easy to make money!

you mean "buy the f***ing dip"?

EDIT: https://youtu.be/0akBdQa55b4

No, I don't trade on the stock market. It is a giant ponzi scheme. Bitcoin is different.

[HI-TEC99]

petty perhaps..but then again I have no life...what this as a 'gimmie' (I'm on here an't I ......thus rest my case of needing lame stuff like this......life wise)

You have almost 100 Bitcoins. If the price rises by 5x you can buy yourself a life like bender.

[Karartma1]

Do you want to see the real bitcoin train today? Here it comes


What I see is FOMO, FOMO everywhere. Hold tight, relax and keep control over your keys.  

Oh, by the way

please someone quote me:
the ETF is nothing but trouble for bitcoin. best case: it fails, we crash and recover.

I hope to be to first to tell you how wrong you were  

[Searing]

petty perhaps..but then again I have no life...what this as a 'gimmie' (I'm on here an't I ......thus rest my case of needing lame stuff like this......life wise)

You have almost 100 Bitcoins. If the price rises by 5x you can buy yourself a life like bender.

yeah.....true....but 25% of them I have to wait a year to spend or 40% capital gains etc....(don't plan on it)

kinda interesting thou...at 95 btc now will be at a bit more then 100 btc at end of titans...will have ZERO invested at that time..thus 'mined' my way
out of it (dumb luck ..it was all dumb luck.not really kidding on that either)

thus ...life is the same..I'm still bored and on here.....even if what you say is true.....would reguire I get off my butt and go someplace

but then again I retire at 65 so 3 years to go from march on.... so we will see

I must admit ....if you can tuck some away (attic mine the junk in my attic on ebay to buy btc is my next goal now that home mining is dead) anyway

it does seem to make a big mental diff on your outlook on the whole thing...from your point 5x up sure.....from the other side it all goes 'tulips' the

only thing invested is time/labor/hobby

probably as close to thinking like Warren Buffet and using money (in this case as a tool only) as I'm ever gonna get close to..

but again was mostly circumstances and luck ..others on here can point that out in more detail

we will see..but it is an entirely weird way to look at this whole crypto/btc/ltc mining etc thing now since 2013 when I started...

hopefully whatever your amount of crypto you have will go up 10x ...thus you will be in my current position $$$ wise at that point ..and me...

well I'll just be further befuddled about the whole thing yet at a bigger $$$ level

its weird thou I'll give you that

[ErisDiscordia]

Do you want to see the real bitcoin train today? Here it comes

Visual representation of full blocks  

We're currently bouncing around the old Stamp ATH. As the weekend comes to a close I wonder if the growth will continue. I see potential for further correction and/or consolidation. But who knows, this is Bitcoin, after all.

[Torque]

ATH in price is only one side of the coin. the other is market cap.

in 2013 the market cap was ~12B at its peak, and litecoin was less than $100M.

today bitcoin is almost $19B, and the next 5 top coins have a combined $2B.

cryptocurrency as an entire sector is up 8 *BILLION* dollars, or ~66% since the 2013 peak.

$8 billion has NOT been poured in since 2013. Supply in all of those coins have risen essentially people hodling = marketcap rising. I bet less than a few hundred million $ has been put in but essentially people are willing to hodl coins more and more as they lose trust in the governments and services appear that allow you to bypass fiat and spend your crypto anywhere fiat is accepted.

duh, thats how market cap works.

Yea i guss.. its just that many people end up making it seem like 8 billion has been poured in when it has not. The cap increases for sure..
So heres an.interesting thought experiment. What if you decreased supply to keep cap the same.but raise the price? Would that still be the same? I would say that there is a fundamental difference.between the two in that in one the opportunity cost changes and essentially goes back to the idea that velocity drives the true value of money. If supply increased but people held.. the opportunity cost is less than if 8 billion was put in to drive the cap up while supply remained static. The extra liquidity increases opportunity and thus you cant say increasing cap.via decreasing supply == increasing cap via increased liquidity and thus price.

If people held - that does not decide the price of the extra supply.

Price is determined by what people are prepared to buy the available supply at.  If that supply increases, then it does not matter if everyone who has the existing supply holds, the price becomes the price that the (increased) available supply is bought at.

Increased supply (if demand does not change) will normally decrease price.  The holders do not affect this, the buyers (and sellers) of the available supply do.  Decreased supply will normally increase price if demand is constant.

Market cap is useful in any traded asset, in that the measure is always the same; number of units of the asset that are available, multiplied by the current price of an available unit that the market will pay.  Any asset where units are uniform, that is reasonably easy to obtain with a known market price can be valued like this, thus it is a valuable metric.

Saying 'the money was not actually paid' is not relevant as this applies to all of such assets.  Apple shares are not all traded every day, many are held by pension schemes, but the company is still valued as the price of its issued shares multiplied by the number issued.

If the price goes up, then the value of all the available units is more valuable.

We all see our coins as 'worth' the current price. So we all believe in the market cap being an accurate measure.  Of course if everyone sells price will not be maintained, and the same applies if no one sells.  Supply and demand affects price and market cap equally, therefore it is a useful measure.

Actually another thing to think about. Many people across the world are not just buying bitcoin because they think it will dramatically rise in value within the next few years. They are buying bitcoin because they see the purchasing value of their local fiat currency continually falling in purchase power (due to govt. devaluation or inflation/hyperinflation) and they simply want to preserve their current wealth/purchasing value. Many would be happy if the bitcoin exchange rate just stayed steady for the next 5-10 years.

Also note that if wealthy people pile into bitcoin within the next year, they are also not necessarily doing it for investment reasons only. They have insider knowledge of when the worldwide market crash is coming that Average Joe does not, and will precede that with piling into safe haven assets 12-18 months in advance.  I believe that will start happening this year, if it isn't happening already. My feeling is this is exactly and precisely why we are seeing talk of Bitcoin ETFs this year.  In earlier years there was no interest or sense of urgency by the establishment to make them happen.

[gembitz]

Do you want to see the real bitcoin train today? Here it comes

Visual representation of full blocks  

We're currently bouncing around the old Stamp ATH. As the weekend comes to a close I wonder if the growth will continue. I see potential for further correction and/or consolidation. But who knows, this is Bitcoin, after all.

^India buying yes i've been pounding the table on this fact!! :-D weeeeeeee

[abercrombie]

Bear trap!!     

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see our little profit-taking/consolidation/beartrap seems to be pretty much finished and we're creeping back up again... currently $1165USD (Bitcoinaverage).

Time to get back over $1200 and set our sights on the old Gox ATH (for those who care) and more importantly, gold ounce parity.

Go Bitcoin go.

[vortex1878]

Gold ounce parity does not matter at all.
Why parity to an ounce compared to 1 BTC?
Why not to a Satoshi? Or to a kg of Gold?
Pointless...

Edit: The only comparison that could make sense (not saying that it does) would be that of good old rpietila who once compared the total supply of BTC with that of Gold. He came up with 300k USD per BTC. I never bothered to confirm his calculation though. In addition the total supply of gold is not fixed. There might be new supplies coming up (new mines on planet earth, some even unannounced; new supplies from outside-world mines; alchemy..).

[HI-TEC99]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see our little profit-taking/consolidation/beartrap seems to be pretty much finished and we're creeping back up again... currently $1165USD (Bitcoinaverage).

Time to get back over $1200 and set our sights on the old Gox ATH (for those who care) and more importantly, gold ounce parity.

Go Bitcoin go.

It just jumped up to $1182 on stamp. Now the old stamp and finex ATHs are broken again. If we can push above $1200 there's a realistic chance of breaking that gox ATH when the banks open tomorrow.

[bitcoinvest]

Bear trap!!    

Good afternoon bitcoin land!
wow! indeed good photo for the situation so far
Today my dog is my savior Tomorrow i will take him for gift all day game - walk I was more to start trade again and was not sure some hours before  ....
At that time my beagle come for walk  and here we are now watching the price at ~1117€ !! Yes!