Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dani]

anyone care to tell me why this is:

mtgox: 598
bfx: 573
btce 537
btsmp: 522

bitcoin.de: 430€ aka 580$

mtgox: sure, they don't do so well on payments, thats the reason I see here for high prices.
bitfinex: wow, what the actual fuck?
bitstamp: why are they way lower? Sure they pay, but so does bitfinex. Is it because bitfinex is kinda new as an exchange (new design recently, so a big startover, ending beta-phase).
bitcoin.de: forget those germans, this looks kinda stupid to me.

So why is not bitstamp leading the price? They have around the same volume in trades as Mtgox has.

I'm guessing Stamp hasn't processed the wiretransfers from before the weekend yet and people have run out of USD to buy there. I know that Bitfinex doesnt have funds on Stamp anymore (BFX users can also trade on Stamp, but can only buy on Stamp when BFX has USD there, which they don't at the moment).

I'm expecting Stamp to pull back up in a few hours when the fiat lands there.

good thing i got dollars on there, bad thing I didnt buy days ago..

[haightst]

Im scared lol

been at this 1 month mining 21 coins....hmmm......may have to take any coin I get put in paper wallet USB and place far away in
safe deposit box in a bank......if I plan to just hoard.....this is like trying to take a break from women at the playboy mansion....restraint man
restraint.....

crap its only been 1 month of this for me no wonder everyone on here is insane

damn 21 coins... here I am sitting with 1 coin lol

got a KNC Jupiter I expected to make ROI in a lesiurey fashion in say 9 months to 1 year...as I expected hype to slow down etc more equip etc.....mad ROI in 25 days
started mining oct 18th I think coin then was around $150

to say I'm noob and confused is an understatement

ah hell its only money (or not depending on what the u.s. house says on Monday about all this)

Very confused indeed. Your ROI is negative because you bought a BTC minting machine, and you would have bought more coins with your fiat that coins your machine will ever mint.

~not at all buddy, as the BTC /\Gold Rush[-2014-] is only beginning!  

[Hfertig]

There are some major differences now vs april. The most important one:

- Volume is spread in different exchanges

I highly doubt that we well see same kind of superpaniccrash that took place in %80 volume leading shitgox. Base in stronger. There were maybe 20k sold now and it didn't make a big dent and thats over 10 000 000 USD...

Sure, but the increase/day was so damn high last time. We didnt see this yet, so no reason to crash anyway. But if we see that increase again, it won't matter if you have 5 exchangers or 1. People will panic the fuck out of it, for human reasons, not for shitgox-lags.

...but the panic/crash is not nearly as big, that's the thing, all is relative.

How do you know ? the crash has not started yet....

[NewLiberty]

Who was it that predicted the 4K CNY flash crash because the Mandarin word for "four" sounds like the Mandarin word for "Death"?
Looks like someone used that for the spook factor.

[haightst]

anyone care to tell me why this is:

mtgox: 598
bfx: 573
btce 537
btsmp: 522

bitcoin.de: 430€ aka 580$

mtgox: sure, they don't do so well on payments, thats the reason I see here for high prices.
bitfinex: wow, what the actual fuck?
bitstamp: why are they way lower? Sure they pay, but so does bitfinex. Is it because bitfinex is kinda new as an exchange (new design recently, so a big startover, ending beta-phase).
bitcoin.de: forget those germans, this looks kinda stupid to me.

So why is not bitstamp leading the price? They have around the same volume in trades as Mtgox has.

I'm guessing Stamp hasn't processed the wiretransfers from before the weekend yet and people have run out of USD to buy there. I know that Bitfinex doesnt have funds on Stamp anymore (BFX users can also trade on Stamp, but can only buy on Stamp when BFX has USD there, which they don't at the moment).

I'm expecting Stamp to pull back up in a few hours when the fiat lands there.

good thing i got dollars on there, bad thing I didnt buy days ago..

+6OOBIG$$$$$=BTCBTCBTCBTCBTC
http://archive.globalgamejam.org/sites/default/files/uploads/2011/4744/MakeItStop.png?1296491493

LOL! WHO TOLD YOU!!!! =)

[BitThink]

Just half an hour ago, the whole ask orders are around 1000 BTC in BTCChina, but now there're 1600BTC up to 3990 CNY now. It seems a quick small correction attracts quit a lot sellers.

Just wait to see what happens when 60k coins are rapidly dumped as it happened on April, 10th.

Considering the current bid depth and daily volume, dumping 60k coins at once may drop the price to almost 0, but meanwhile you could dump it carefully for couple of days without affecting the price much.

For someone has 60k coins (that's more than $30M now), I doubt he will choose to dump at once and lose half of his wealth.

Guess you're new here Last weekends dip was about 60k dumped and it crashed the price to... where it was 3 days before. No one knows where the hell this is going but in terms of volume on the exchanges and panic buying we're at about $120 on the April rise.

I mean sell it to the wall immediately, as the most extreme case, but yes I admit no one will do something like that.

Large scale dumping tends to happen in stages.

For example someone dumps about 4000 BTC like we just saw.

The price will then quickly recover on low volume and everyone runs around congratulating themselves and patting each other on the back because they were strong and for 'holding' their coins instead of selling.

The wealthy guy just made a shit load of money off the back of those who didn't sell.

As soon as the bids fill in it happens again.

This is if one person is dumping. If another whale is watching (and they will be) it will be a race to see who holds out the longest before dumping.

As far as I'm concerned this is how a mass dumping event happens. All it takes is one or two to play the dumping game at the same time then others join in. Before you know it there's a free for all and everyone who's actively trading dumps their coins, exchanges get overloaded and the price bounces around like a ball bouncing down a stairway.

Yes, exactly. So why daily volume is important here to evaluate the effect of a dump. With the current daily volume around 50K in average, dump 60K does not seem so scary at all. For example, today's volume is already more than 86K in BTCChina.

[ChartBuddy]

[el_rlee]

Since when is bitstamp lower than btc-e? What's going on?

[BitThink]

There are some major differences now vs april. The most important one:

- Volume is spread in different exchanges

I highly doubt that we well see same kind of superpaniccrash that took place in %80 volume leading shitgox. Base in stronger. There were maybe 20k sold now and it didn't make a big dent and thats over 10 000 000 USD...

Sure, but the increase/day was so damn high last time. We didnt see this yet, so no reason to crash anyway. But if we see that increase again, it won't matter if you have 5 exchangers or 1. People will panic the fuck out of it, for human reasons, not for shitgox-lags.

...but the panic/crash is not nearly as big, that's the thing, all is relative.

How do you know ? the crash has not started yet....

Another difference is the average cost of the coin. It is much higher now than April. Many current holders bought at above $100 - $150, therefore, it will be really reluctant for them to sell below that price. So I believe bids under $150 don't have a good chance to be filled in all cases. $600 to $150 crash seems huge enough to me.

[maz]

There are some major differences now vs april. The most important one:

- Volume is spread in different exchanges

I highly doubt that we well see same kind of superpaniccrash that took place in %80 volume leading shitgox. Base in stronger. There were maybe 20k sold now and it didn't make a big dent and thats over 10 000 000 USD...

Sure, but the increase/day was so damn high last time. We didnt see this yet, so no reason to crash anyway. But if we see that increase again, it won't matter if you have 5 exchangers or 1. People will panic the fuck out of it, for human reasons, not for shitgox-lags.

...but the panic/crash is not nearly as big, that's the thing, all is relative.

How do you know ? the crash has not started yet....

Another difference is the average cost of the coin. It is much higher now than April. Many current holders bought at above $100 - $150, therefore, it will be really reluctant for them to sell below that price. So I believe bids under $150 don't have a good chance to be filled in all cases. $600 to $150 crash seems huge enough to me.

I'd bite hands off for a $150 coin right now, even if I thought it would drop to $60 I'd still be quite pleased with $150. Which is funny because at the beginning of October I sold some at $150 thinking 'this is a nice little day trade opportunity'. But hey we live and learn don't we. That little mistake will serve me for the next 40 years of Bitcoin buying and selling, so I'm glad I made it now.

[marcelus]

There are some major differences now vs april. The most important one:

- Volume is spread in different exchanges

I highly doubt that we well see same kind of superpaniccrash that took place in %80 volume leading shitgox. Base in stronger. There were maybe 20k sold now and it didn't make a big dent and thats over 10 000 000 USD...

Sure, but the increase/day was so damn high last time. We didnt see this yet, so no reason to crash anyway. But if we see that increase again, it won't matter if you have 5 exchangers or 1. People will panic the fuck out of it, for human reasons, not for shitgox-lags.

...but the panic/crash is not nearly as big, that's the thing, all is relative.

How do you know ? the crash has not started yet....

Another difference is the average cost of the coin. It is much higher now than April. Many current holders bought at above $100 - $150, therefore, it will be really reluctant for them to sell below that price. So I believe bids under $150 don't have a good chance to be filled in all cases. $600 to $150 crash seems huge enough to me.

We're probably not going to see a sub $300 coin again. Forget about $150.

[maz]

There are some major differences now vs april. The most important one:

- Volume is spread in different exchanges

I highly doubt that we well see same kind of superpaniccrash that took place in %80 volume leading shitgox. Base in stronger. There were maybe 20k sold now and it didn't make a big dent and thats over 10 000 000 USD...

Sure, but the increase/day was so damn high last time. We didnt see this yet, so no reason to crash anyway. But if we see that increase again, it won't matter if you have 5 exchangers or 1. People will panic the fuck out of it, for human reasons, not for shitgox-lags.

...but the panic/crash is not nearly as big, that's the thing, all is relative.

How do you know ? the crash has not started yet....

Another difference is the average cost of the coin. It is much higher now than April. Many current holders bought at above $100 - $150, therefore, it will be really reluctant for them to sell below that price. So I believe bids under $150 don't have a good chance to be filled in all cases. $600 to $150 crash seems huge enough to me.

We're probably not going to see a sub $300 coin again. Forget about $150.

Well see that's pure conjecture and you and I both know that we could see that price again, we could see lower actually. If America went full retard and announced it as illegal or regulated or whatever then it could cause a massive crash. Not saying I want that too happen, but it's a possibility which is something that should always be considered. Never say Never with Bitcoin!

[rpietila]

How do you know ? the crash has not started yet....

It is borderline possible that the "big crash" just started, but even if this is the case, BTC is not going below $250 and it takes no more than 4 months to surpass the old highs.

I just don't see the reason for big players to move just yet. Even I haven't moved or sold a single bitcoin during 200->600, because it is just too difficult to buy back in quantity. At 1500 it will be different, because there is money to be made after it crashes to 500.

By playing only big moves and playing them right, you gain much more than by worrying every 25% change in price.

When Gox was down in 11th April, I personally walked around the town buying goxbux and bought at $62-$90 next day. I think I made hundreds of BTC profit that week. I haven't made any profit since. This is not to underline how good I am. Just that you (collectively) would spend more time thinking and only execute the plan when you have one + the circumstances are right.

All those bitcoins came from the pockets of those whom I try to educate

[Davyd05]

I just find it hilarious that the price goes near vert as I am getting my funds in order...boy do I feel silly for being slow.

I can hope for minor correction through out the week to buy in at, but I might end up just dollar cost avg'n to mitigate a crash or steady gain. However I don't really feel a crash per say as much as some corrections.

[Miz4r]

Since when is bitstamp lower than btc-e? What's going on?

I've heard that fiat deposits on Bitstamp are being processed slowly for some reason, so not enough USD coming in fast enough to catch up with the other exchanges.

[Dargumin]

Why not spend them when I can pay less when paying with bitcoin and buy the coins at the time of use?

Because the BTC you bought "at the time of use" may be worth $100 more the next day and could buy you a whole lot more?

Try it with numbers and maybe you will understand.

Say you have $1000 and 2 BTC and bitcoin is US$500ea and you want to buy something for 1BTC or $500.  Seller's offer is that they will ship sameday express if you use BTC (because they have no risk).

I want to buy this thing and maximize my BTC.  I can either spend 1 BTC and buy 2 and end up with 3 BTC and sameday shipping, or spend US$500 and buy 1 BTC and end up with 3 BTC and wait on shipping.
Either way I have 3 BTC but by spending the BTC I get shipping faster, seller has less risk and less fees.

When you spend them, everyone wins, so your worry is silly.

Make sense now?

It does make sense given the condition of an incentive by the supplier to use bitcoin.  I'm not convinced sellers would see bitcoin as having "less risk" factoring in price volatility at the moment.

[maz]

I just find it hilarious that the price goes near vert as I am getting my funds in order...boy do I feel silly for being slow.

I can hope for minor correction through out the week to buy in at, but I might end up just dollar cost avg'n to mitigate a crash or steady gain. However I don't really feel a crash per say as much as some corrections.

Don't feel bad mate, I'm the same. My funds cleared at $280 and I thought 'no chance, I'll buy when it crashes'  

[Gordonium]

Can we get much higher? So high
Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh
Can we get much higher? So high
Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh

Can we get much higher? So high
Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh
Can we get much higher? So high
Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dr64ssOtI_A

[Davyd05]

I just find it hilarious that the price goes near vert as I am getting my funds in order...boy do I feel silly for being slow.

I can hope for minor correction through out the week to buy in at, but I might end up just dollar cost avg'n to mitigate a crash or steady gain. However I don't really feel a crash per say as much as some corrections.

Don't feel bad mate, I'm the same. My funds cleared at $280 and I thought 'no chance, I'll buy when it crashes'  

Money  hit at 300-320 waited till it hit 340 and said no time like the present with this kind of growth and my overall bullish feelings...the next transfer will not be so small.. Also I wish I bought more at 142.50 cause I did get some lol, I will admit I should've bought twice while waiting for verification...the fee added by localbitcoins would've been justified in full LOL

[proudhon]

I just find it hilarious that the price goes near vert as I am getting my funds in order...boy do I feel silly for being slow.

I can hope for minor correction through out the week to buy in at, but I might end up just dollar cost avg'n to mitigate a crash or steady gain. However I don't really feel a crash per say as much as some corrections.

We've all been through that.  First time I spent a significant amount, the price doubled from the time I initiated the transfer to MtGox to when it showed up.  After I bought, the price fell 30%.  The time between the fall and when things picked up again was a little stressful, to say the least.