Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

Apparently we all doesn't know.   Maybe you should 'splain ur selfie?

It's possible, also, yet maybe not in your speculation scenario, that we are in a correction period in 2022 and/or 2023 in preparation for the 2024 halvening. 

You consider  a possible upcoming correction cycle within your knowing more than everyone else scenario?

LOL, 'twas a joke. That was my point "we all doesn't know".

O.k.  fair enough. I could kind of see a thread of a possible joke in there.... so no real desire to bust anyone's balls over a possible joke, whether really having balls or a girl or a bot.   

By the way, my response is kind of  serious, and LFC has been spouting off about moon in late 2020 or early 2021 for about 2 years now, which even if he is not exactly correct, I think that there is a decent amount of plausibility to build BTC price bubble theories around halvening effects, and even accounting for possible bubbles coming before the time line in your theory or even after, but bitcoin has been showing quite a few of these repeated bubble patterns playing out, and there is no real reason to believe that they are going to stop, unless you just happen to be a denier who is buying into some less convincing theory including some of the goofballs who try to place bitcoin into a mature asset camp, which should be relatively clear that bitcoin really does not fit too well into a mature asset camp... and likely will not until after it goes through decent adoption which also likely involves a likely ongoing exponential s-curve that is far beyond what any normies expect, but accumulators and HODLers will likely be rewarded for their behaviors.. and at the same time, none of it is a given... which is back to the short term joke point....  "we all doesn't know".

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[infofront]

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

2022 seems to be the consensus. IMO that's a good indicator that we'll moon before or after 2022. Probably before, since most people also seem to be convinced that the BTC cycles are lengthening.

[HairyMaclairy]

Hey Jimbo

how about a Blue Jays halfway report?

The Jays are doing about as well as expected in a rebuilding year with a team consisting mostly of rookies. 2 of the 3 highly-touted  sons-of-superstars prospects have already been brought up (Guerrero and Biggio) and are already excelling. The 3rd, Bo Bichette is waiting in the wings.

[snip]

Writing like this could teach me to actually enjoy baseball

[mindrust]

...

I still remember 10 years ago, when I went into the bank and made a 5 year deposit with 4.5% year interest. I lived happily through those 5 years taking my profit. Until I heard of Bitcoin. What will be the interest of my Bitcoin deposit in 5 years? Incredibly high, for sure. Therefore, the price of suffering one more  bear year is insignificant compared to the prize after that.

...

I recently made a 6 month deposit with 3.25% (USD) yearly interest.  (nearly %25 of my total wealth) Not the most profitable investment I made since my btc investment is more than doubled itself in a couple of years.

You buy some gold, you buy some bitcoins, you buy some stocks (not a good idea now probably), you always keep some in a bank because banks are still kinda functioning and you still kinda need them for purchasing big stuff like houses, some at home as hard cash, if the amount is big enough some real estate in decent cities with low taxes, etc etc...

It is just a game of risk management.

You buy some risky assets, some less-risky assets, some solid assets, some barbaric relics... All has its spot in the game.

I don't trust banks but I don't want to lose my mind by watching crypto charts neither. (probably too late for that)

** Yes I'm going to wait 6 fucking months to get %1.625 (one point six two five percent) in profits (minus taxes). This is one of the most fucking terrible Investment ever.
*** Should I cancel that shit and go full btc?  

[HairyMaclairy]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>

I am so badly disillusioned by shitcoins I don’t think I am capable of taking any blockchain project seriously.  And that’s probably not a good thing, because if something genuinely good does come along I will probably just reject it out of hand.

[realsteelboy]

At $100k I will be hodling more than 1BTC.

I am 100% certain of that.

[sirazimuth]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>

I am so badly disillusioned by shitcoins I don’t think I am capable of taking any blockchain project seriously.  And that’s probably not a good thing, because if something genuinely good does come along I will probably just reject it out of hand.

You and me both my friend. (and most crypto seasoned folks on this thread too, no doubt)

[yefi]

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

The BTC/alt charts generally look terrible to me from a technical angle. A lot are in no man's land, where they've broken long-term support. I'm not touching that until I see signs of utter capitulation (sea of -2x%) or BTC's rally getting long in the tooth.

[wwzsocki]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>

I am so badly disillusioned by shitcoins I don’t think I am capable of taking any blockchain project seriously.  And that’s probably not a good thing, because if something genuinely good does come along I will probably just reject it out of hand.

You and me both my friend. (and most crypto seasoned folks on this thread too, no doubt)

I still hope that from over 2000 alts there will be a couple of them finally successful and we see working products which indeed will revolutionize at least something as intended.

Maybe indeed more time is needed and in some cases, new regulations and licenses across the world. Doubtful that it will take less than a decade, but for good things is worth to wait a little longer   .

[fillippone]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>

I am so badly disillusioned by shitcoins I don’t think I am capable of taking any blockchain project seriously.  And that’s probably not a good thing, because if something genuinely good does come along I will probably just reject it out of hand.

The time, the energies and the intellectual honesty you preserve not indulging in shitcoins project, will abundantly repay you for any (very unlikely) potential monetary gain you could face getting in the winning altcoin. If ever one will exist.

[bkbirge]

By the way, my response is kind of  serious, and LFC has been spouting off about moon in late 2020 or early 2021 for about 2 years now, which even if he is not exactly correct, I think that there is a decent amount of plausibility to build BTC price bubble theories around halvening effects, and even accounting for possible bubbles coming before the time line in your theory or even after, but bitcoin has been showing quite a few of these repeated bubble patterns playing out, and there is no real reason to believe that they are going to stop, unless you just happen to be a denier who is buying into some less convincing theory including some of the goofballs who try to place bitcoin into a mature asset camp, which should be relatively clear that bitcoin really does not fit too well into a mature asset camp... and likely will not until after it goes through decent adoption which also likely involves a likely ongoing exponential s-curve that is far beyond what any normies expect, but accumulators and HODLers will likely be rewarded for their behaviors.. and at the same time, none of it is a given... which is back to the short term joke point....  "we all doesn't know".

Good thoughtful post, I don't disagree with that. I do think a lot of price predictions get baked in long before they are supposed to happen so I don't really trust them too much but I do enjoy reading them. That doesn't mean I disagree that there will be many boom/bust cycles going forward or that there may be a pattern worth teasing out. I envy those that can actually trade the short term waves with enough consistent certainty to make a better long term profit than just holding. I'm not sure I've ever actually met one of those mythical traders, they might be unicorns.

The cool thing with BTC if you are real long is you won't ever have to figure out your exit strategy. Just wait for the adoption level to get to where price is no longer very volatile, and at that point there's probably no reason to even convert to fiat. That might be a wait in geologic time though, or never. The joke remains.

[bkbirge]

It is just a game of risk management.

You buy some risky assets, some less-risky assets, some solid assets, some barbaric relics... All has its spot in the game.

Sounds about right to me. I always get a chuckle on these boards when posters (present company excluded of course) recommend diversifying and their idea is to buy as many different tokens as possible.

[Globb0]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>

I am so badly disillusioned by shitcoins I don’t think I am capable of taking any blockchain project seriously.  And that’s probably not a good thing, because if something genuinely good does come along I will probably just reject it out of hand.

The time, the energies and the intellectual honesty you preserve not indulging in shitcoins project, will abundantly repay you for any (very unlikely) potential monetary gain you could face getting in the winning altcoin. If ever one will exist.

It sounds so maximalist. Many people really got payed back so many X10's in those markets.

I don't disagree many of the projects are disgusting. How do they live on year after year?

[JayJuanGee]

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

2022 seems to be the consensus. IMO that's a good indicator that we'll moon before or after 2022. Probably before, since most people also seem to be convinced that the BTC cycles are lengthening.

If you happen to read this thread (sarcasm intended), you would notice that consensus, to the extent that there is such a thing or that it matters, seems to be more in the early 2021 time frame.... , and surely there are questions  whether there is going to be a kind of double upwards boom like in 2013 or a kind of front running of the boom that would cause a decently-sized peak coming earlier than expected (even before the halvening) and lend some credibility to increase the likelihood of a kind of double peak that would still take place in late 2020 or up to mid 2021 when the effects of the halvening are actually felt in a more concrete way.

[JayJuanGee]

At $100k I will be hodling more than 1BTC.

I am 100% certain of that.

I'm tempted, but I am not going to ask.   

[kenzawak]

https://twitter.com/BinanceResearch/status/1148602494362226688

[Biodom]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>

I am so badly disillusioned by shitcoins I don’t think I am capable of taking any blockchain project seriously.  And that’s probably not a good thing, because if something genuinely good does come along I will probably just reject it out of hand.

I am not disillusioned with a specific comment that some are a mess, some too self-dealing and others are not even "real" crypto.
The downswing in alts had happened before and I am not sure if market dynamics favors just one coin.
Typically, in most other markets, there are at least a few dominant players (maybe FB and GOOG are the exceptions). We shall see.
I am certainly not selling any bitcoin for alts.

[infofront]

If you happen to read this thread (sarcasm intended), you would notice that consensus, to the extent that there is such a thing or that it matters, seems to be more in the early 2021 time frame....

Lets find out. New poll time!

Old poll results:

[JayJuanGee]

It is just a game of risk management.

You buy some risky assets, some less-risky assets, some solid assets, some barbaric relics... All has its spot in the game.

Sounds about right to me. I always get a chuckle on these boards when posters (present company excluded of course) recommend diversifying and their idea is to buy as many different tokens as possible.

There is some validity to diversification, but the concept is taken to an extreme with shitcoins, and there seems to be hardly any justification to diversify into shitcoins.

Another thing, the concept of diversification is to attempt to diversify into assets that are not likely to be correlated and represent some fundamental differences.  Frequently altcoins are merely following bitcoin, so they are not really a different asset class.

Finally, there is a pretty god damned low probability that any altcoin would be able to take over the slack if bitcoin were to fail, and so a justification to diversify into a world of altcoins based on a kind of bitcoin failure theory has a very faulty premise.

I am not opposed to people coming to their own conclusions regarding what kind of diversification would be good for them based on their personal situation, and I understand the temptation to completely diversify out of traditional investments; however, if an employer offers any kind of 401k, it would likely be a good idea to invest into such 401k at least up to the matching funds (if matching exists) and perhaps up to the tax deferrable limit, but that might be a question of how much money would be left to invest into bitcoin, because most young people should consider having some investment into bitcoin, even if such bitcoin investment only ends up being 1% to 10% or so of their total investments.

[JayJuanGee]

If you happen to read this thread (sarcasm intended), you would notice that consensus, to the extent that there is such a thing or that it matters, seems to be more in the early 2021 time frame....

Lets find out. New poll time!

Old poll results:

hahahahahaaha



Good one, infofront.

You are going to double down regarding theories of consensus....