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Question: Among your family and friends, who owns Bitcoin?
Myself only - 35 (34.3%)
Myself and my spouse/partner - 12 (11.8%)
My family - 11 (10.8%)
Close friends - 14 (13.7%)
All of the above - 30 (29.4%)
Total Voters: 102

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25288306 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
Miz4r
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April 19, 2013, 12:33:51 PM
 #501

People have become more cautious since the big crash, so 'bubbles' pop earlier but will also crash less hard. Hopefully this will lead to more stability and less panic buying because they know a correction will soon follow if it goes up too fast. Smiley
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DougTanner
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April 19, 2013, 12:50:50 PM
 #502

Good morning! Crazy night we just had.

Still looks bullish as hell, resistance has moved above $140.

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April 19, 2013, 12:54:43 PM
 #503

Yes, small rally from the $110 low, hit twice, not broken. Next stop $120 ?
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April 19, 2013, 12:56:20 PM
 #504

Good morning! Crazy night we just had.

Still looks bullish as hell, resistance has moved above $140.



Where can I get those beautiful charts?

Edit: Got it nvm Smiley.
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April 19, 2013, 01:35:18 PM
 #505

No. They were found by miners of that pool, not the pool itself. If the pool misbehaves (the blocks contain only transactions with high fees or the blocks contain no transactions at all etc.) these miners will switch within hours.
I wonder though why the first ASIC miners are not solo mining. Damn you can afford to do it with a block found on average within hours.

Some of them seem to have a psychological objection to variance. Or maybe the theory is that as more asics come online, the pools will regain their importance so some loyalty is in order.
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April 19, 2013, 01:39:13 PM
 #506

As I said, if you believe that chart that was being bandied about, this is the return-to-the-mean which is about correct at 120. I'm withholding my judgement but I suspect we'll see a steady climb until we get some more news of governments doing something crazy. Which could be any time...
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April 19, 2013, 02:03:53 PM
 #507

No. They were found by miners of that pool, not the pool itself. If the pool misbehaves (the blocks contain only transactions with high fees or the blocks contain no transactions at all etc.) these miners will switch within hours.
I wonder though why the first ASIC miners are not solo mining. Damn you can afford to do it with a block found on average within hours.

Some of them seem to have a psychological objection to variance. Or maybe the theory is that as more asics come online, the pools will regain their importance so some loyalty is in order.
My reasoning behind pool or p2p mining as opposed to solo had my ASIC  turned up months ago and had difficulty been low enough would have been:  The odds of mining a block reduces at the same rate as difficulty increases and if this is rapid the cost of belonging to a pool pays for a share of the gains when difficulty is lower and odds are higher.  It's a bigger gamble to go solo because if you're unlucky in the first low-difficulty stage you've missed out on the gain you would had by having yours plugged in before the others who drove the difficulty up.
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April 19, 2013, 02:24:33 PM
 #508

Cool graph, gives noobs like me a little understanding.

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April 19, 2013, 03:07:48 PM
 #509

It just keeps bouncing off $112.

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April 19, 2013, 03:13:01 PM
 #510

Looks like it's going lower now :/
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April 19, 2013, 03:14:08 PM
 #511

Looks like it's going lower now :/

Don't jump so quick. We will eventually go very low but so far it seems market has some momentul. We'll see the next days.
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April 19, 2013, 03:25:36 PM
 #512

No. They were found by miners of that pool, not the pool itself. If the pool misbehaves (the blocks contain only transactions with high fees or the blocks contain no transactions at all etc.) these miners will switch within hours.
I wonder though why the first ASIC miners are not solo mining. Damn you can afford to do it with a block found on average within hours.

Some of them seem to have a psychological objection to variance. Or maybe the theory is that as more asics come online, the pools will regain their importance so some loyalty is in order.
My reasoning behind pool or p2p mining as opposed to solo had my ASIC  turned up months ago and had difficulty been low enough would have been:  The odds of mining a block reduces at the same rate as difficulty increases and if this is rapid the cost of belonging to a pool pays for a share of the gains when difficulty is lower and odds are higher.  It's a bigger gamble to go solo because if you're unlucky in the first low-difficulty stage you've missed out on the gain you would had by having yours plugged in before the others who drove the difficulty up.

Crap. If you solo mine, you can also be lucky and earn more than with a pool. It's just more variance and being more lucky now or less is absolutely the same now and later in the game but later your odds of finding 2 blocks per day might be half of today.
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April 19, 2013, 03:33:28 PM
 #513

With your graceful permission, I will repost here my recent findings.

Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.
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April 19, 2013, 03:41:27 PM
 #514

[...]

Hmm, not quite right neither …
[/s]
Edit:
for(Bid bid:bids) {
  weighted_bid_price+=bid.price_per_BTC * bid.volume_USD;
}
weighted_bid_price/=total_bid_sum;
for(Ask ask:asks) {
  weighted_ask_price+=ask.price_per_BTC * ask.volume_BTC;
}
weighted_ask_price/=total_ask_sum;


Would that work?


What if... I would offer 1BTC for 1 Billion Dollars?

You would have to wait 5 years for your order to get filled Grin

Ok, seriously, there has to be some nice measure. If the average bid/ask doesn't work, take the mean bid/ask:
Code:
for(Bid bid:bids) {
  bidSum += bid.volumeUSD;
  if (bidSum >= 0.5 * totalBidSum) {
    meanBidPrice = bid.pricePerBTC;
    break;
  }
}

for(Ask ask:asks) {
  askSum += ask.volumeBTC;
  if (askSum >= 0.5 * totalAskSum) {
    meanAskPrice = ask.pricePerBTC;
    break;
  }
}
meanSpreak = meanAskPrice – meanBidPrice;
giszmo
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April 19, 2013, 03:52:26 PM
 #515

With your graceful permission, I will repost here my recent findings.

Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.

Oh, ok so you say if Ƀ surpasses the $300,000 mark in 2013 $$, we should sell? Thanks for the heads up Grin

I kind of appreciate your argument but don't agree on the outcome as there will always be a speculative aspect to it. 7.11 billion people? Hey, I have some extra money and will speculate on the next 8 billion also wanting ɃɃ, so the value should be $600,000.
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April 19, 2013, 03:54:28 PM
 #516

With your graceful permission, I will repost here my recent findings.

Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.

Oh, ok so you say if Ƀ surpasses the $300,000 mark in 2013 $$, we should sell? Thanks for the heads up Grin

I kind of appreciate your argument but don't agree on the outcome as there will always be a speculative aspect to it. 7.11 billion people? Hey, I have some extra money and will speculate on the next 8 billion also wanting ɃɃ, so the value should be $600,000.

Oh no please, that's why I said read the analysis first. Adding 8 billion people will likely not change the outcome.
Miz4r
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April 19, 2013, 04:11:41 PM
 #517

This is crazy, total bid sum has gone through the roof. I think we should prepare for another rally upwards soon, it can't stay at 110-115 much longer now.
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April 19, 2013, 04:15:40 PM
Last edit: April 19, 2013, 04:51:30 PM by DougTanner
 #518

This is crazy, total bid sum has gone through the roof. I think we should prepare for another rally upwards soon, it can't stay at 110-115 much longer now.

It's where it was yesterday at this time, so yeah I think up is still very likely.



Yup.

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April 19, 2013, 04:48:50 PM
 #519

With your graceful permission, I will repost here my recent findings.

Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.

A few months ago I did the same assumption
"Bitcoins becomes as popular as gold"
according to my calculation

there have been ~17,000 tones of gold mined in total (Wikipedia)
there will be 21 million BTCs mined in total

I came up with a price of 450,000 EUR or USD  (can't remember which but who cares!  Grin)

Our numbers are very close

lets say 375,000 USD----> then---> EUR       Shocked   
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April 19, 2013, 05:12:59 PM
 #520

With your graceful permission, I will repost here my recent findings.

Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.

A few months ago I did the same assumption
"Bitcoins becomes as popular as gold"
according to my calculation

there have been ~17,000 tones of gold mined in total (Wikipedia)
there will be 21 million BTCs mined in total

I came up with a price of 450,000 EUR or USD  (can't remember which but who cares!  Grin)

Our numbers are very close

lets say 375,000 USD----> then---> EUR       Shocked   

I love you guys. Cheesy
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