Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Last of the V8s]

lol mic

Sounds like a possible flood attack vector? I'm just spitballing here as I have not read anything except what you posted so far.

That's exactly right, I was just editing as you posted. I'd need to look again, but seems a bit magical for no reason. ach well

[1576092158]

1576092158

[1576092158]

1576092158

[HairyMaclairy]

Some things change.  Some stay the same.

What are you trying to say, hairy mcbary?  Are you trying to say that we are largely "on track"?

Yeah pretty much.  We are back a bit higher than we should be so I wouldn’t expect much price action for the next year or so.  Death by boredom most probable.   We might retest $13k at the halvening.

The real action will start in early 2021.

On the accelerated model - I never agreed with it.  That model puts us at $15k now and $50k in January 2020.  It’s not going to happen.  

[Last of the V8s]

Soo boys are y'all saving up your art for the last minute?
Or we're just not so talented in that direction? I know I'm not.
I realise we have like 4/5 entrants.
Bob not going to give theymos a nice installation? You do the best memes man at least, c'mon on.
I feel like jojo's welding soemthing together as we speak...

[Hueristic]

OK, i'd need some opinions on this prototype piece i experimentally fucked up, taking hours and days to take it this far.
Now i have got a last piece of ebony left, which will serve for the production blank, where all flaws of the protype should be eradicated.
This will serve the purpose of being a card protector for future texas hold'em games.

When it's done add it to the Art thread and I'll +sM you there.

Some things change.  Some stay the same.

What are you trying to say, hairy mcbary?  Are you trying to say that we are largely "on track"?

Yeah pretty much.  We are back a bit higher than we should be so I wouldn’t expect much price action for the next year or so.  Death by boredom most probable.   We might retest $13k at the halvening.

The real action will start in early 2021.

On the accelerated model - I never agreed with it.  That model puts us at $15k now and $50k in January 2020.  It’s not going to happen.  

Don't be messing with me like this man!

Soo boys are y'all saving up your art for the last minute?
Or we're just not so talented in that direction? I know I'm not.
I realise we have like 4/5 entrants.
Bob not going to give theymos a nice installation? You do the best memes man at least, c'mon on.
I feel like jojo's welding something together as we speak...

I couldn't draw a straight line with a ruler.

[Dabs]

I soppose nothing is going to change, noone in our crew is willing to pull out Cryptos out of their Wallets and finance this job on their own. Here is what i suggest : 35% Upfront to cover the costs then 65% when we show results. This seems the most fair option available which is used in Business, agreed?

There's no need to pull out crypto, use fiat. The whole point of escrow is to do the job first before you get paid. You'll get 100% when the results meet whatever it was agreed upon. That's how I funded a bunch of altcoin ICOs, collected 200 to 400 BTC, did not pay them at all until the coin launched and was stable for a few days.

When there is a trade I escrow, coins are not released until buyer has confirmed they got what they paid for.

No one on this thread is going to agree to your proposal, but I'm sure they'll fund the escrow address if you say you'll accept and do it. You'll see the amount in any block explorer and at least you're sure the coins are there waiting for you to finish what you claim to do.

[Raja_MBZ]

Soo boys are y'all saving up your art for the last minute?

Well, mine is taking way too long to get completed. I actually wonder if I'll be able to get it completed by the submission expiration time. I'm making a mosaic gallery containing 110 images in total (10 images for each year, from 2009 to 2019), and each of these images is being designed by me completely (and separately). Designing the images of each year is taking about 3-4 hours, and I'm done with 3 years (out of 11) so far. So still a very long way to go before it gets completed!

For example, the following five (out of total ten) are from the year 2010:



So I don't think that I'm saving up my art for the last minute, it's just that it'll not get completed until the last minute.

[LUCKMCFLY]

The strength of Bitcoin.


Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinLifestyl/status/1190806756143714304

Co-founder and partner at Morgan Creek Digital, Anthony Pompliano:

195 days until the next Bitcoin halving.

Less than 3 million Bitcoin left to mine.

Hash rate keeps hitting all-time highs.

We are watching the strongest computer network in the world continue to get stronger and stronger.

Incredible.

Via Twitter: @APompliano

More info: https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-fundamentals-are-better-and-stronger/

There is much talk that debt increases in the world's households and saving decreases, the Fed has been manipulating financial markets and lowering interest rates.There is no possible diversification, the best refuge found is through BTC.Then for 2008 the banks were responsible for the global financial crisis, and the perspective that it seems will continue to be the culprits of the next one?

[jojo69]

“We should be happier to have a job than to have our savings protected,” said Lagarde.

is she threatening us?

that sounds like a threat

[tranthidung]

Enjoy the monthly update

Update:

ABSTRACT

(1) Last two months, Bitcoin increased ~11% in price, while figures for total replies, total pages, total views between last two periods (31/8/2019-30-9/2019 and 30/9/2019-31/10/2019) fell 11.5%, 27.1%, and 11.6%, respectively.  (Details, please see in the last table in the bottom of the post).
(2) In medians, figures for monthly new replies, views, and pages are 6099, 52920, and 268, respectively

Data source (from @VB1001):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52028093#msg52028093
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52029308#msg52029308
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52325977#msg52325977
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52614459#msg52614459
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52946959#msg52946959

Converted dataset:

Code:

. list id day month2 year date rep repchange prep2 views viewchange pview2 pages pagechange ppages2 btc pbtc, abb(30)

     +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     | id   day   month2   year        date      rep   repchange    prep2      views   viewchange   pview2   pages   pagechange   ppages2     btc     pbtc |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |  1    31       10   2017   31oct2017   361446           .        .   19386138            .        .   18703            .         .    6380        . |
  2. |  2    30       11   2017   30nov2017   368288        6842        .   19749672       363534        .   18415         -288         .    9786    53.39 |
  3. |  3    31       12   2017   31dec2017   380800       12512    82.87   20076512       326840   -10.09   19041          626         .   13186    34.74 |
  4. |  4    31        1   2018   31jan2018   386480        5680    -54.6   20118498        41986   -87.15   19325          284    -54.63   10138   -23.12 |
  5. |  5    28        2   2018   28feb2018   396480       10000    76.06   20185277        66779    59.05   19825          500     76.06   10629     4.84 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |  6    31        3   2018   31mar2018   402460        5980    -40.2   20222795        37518   -43.82   20109          284     -43.2    7119   -33.02 |
  7. |  7    30        4   2018   30apr2018   407457        4997   -16.44   20247143        24348    -35.1   20288          179    -36.97    9275    30.29 |
  8. |  8    31        5   2018   31may2018   410507        3050   -38.96   20280891        33748    38.61   20526          238     32.96    7559    -18.5 |
  9. |  9    30        6   2018   30jun2018   416730        6223   104.03   20315481        34590     2.49   20787          261      9.66    6457   -14.58 |
 10. | 10    31        7   2018   31jul2018   419443        2713    -56.4   20341078        25597      -26   20975          188    -27.97    7848    21.54 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 11. | 11    31        8   2018   31aug2018   424622        5179     90.9   20413924        72846   184.59   21132          157    -16.49    6935   -11.63 |
 12. | 12    30        9   2018   30sep2018   426942        2320    -55.2   20474102        60178   -17.39   21288          156      -.64    6633    -4.35 |
 13. | 13    30       10   2018   30oct2018   430939        3997    72.28   20650285       176183   192.77   21447          159      1.92    6642      .14 |
 14. | 14    30       11   2018   30nov2018   437199        6260    56.62   20782977       132692   -24.69   21810          363     128.3    4015   -39.55 |
 15. | 15    31       12   2018   31dec2018   446510        9311    48.74   20926425       143448     8.11   22296          486     33.88    3800    -5.35 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 16. | 16    31        1   2019   31jan2019   452916        6406    -31.2   21006158        79733   -44.42   22563          267    -45.06    3459    -8.97 |
 17. | 17    28        2   2019   28feb2019   459605        6689     4.42   21042628        36470   -54.26   22974          411     53.93    3901    12.78 |
 18. | 18    31        3   2019   31mar2019   465823        6218    -7.04   21079099        36471        0   23292          318    -22.63    4103     5.18 |
 19. | 19    30        4   2019   30apr2019   473225        7402    19.04   21133357        54258    48.77   23662          370     16.35    5270    28.44 |
 20. | 20    31        5   2019   31may2019   480783        7558     2.11   21193583        60226       11   24040          378      2.16    8501    61.31 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 21. | 21    30        6   2019   30jun2019   488192        7409    -1.97   21256108        62525     3.82   24410          370     -2.12   11262    32.48 |
 22. | 22    31        7   2019   31jul2019   493567        5375   -27.45   21307690        51582    -17.5   24679          269     -27.3   10052   -10.74 |
 23. | 23    31        8   2019   31aug2019   497611        4044   -24.76   21343127        35437    -31.3   24881          202    -24.91    9605    -4.45 |
 24. | 24    30        9   2019   30sep2019   502612        5001    23.66   21386769        43642    23.15   25131          250     23.76    8247   -14.14 |
 25. | 25    31       10   2019   31oct2019   507039        4427   -11.48   21418588        31819   -27.09   25352          221     -11.6    9154       11 |
     +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Notes on variables:
- rep: total replies
- repchange: change of total replies between two months
- prep2: percent of change in rep (replies) between two continuous months.

- views: total views
- viewchange: change of total views between two months
- pview2: percent of change in total views (views) between two continuous months.

- pages: total pages
- pagechange: change of total pages between two months
- ppages2: percent of change in total pages (pages) between two continuous months.

- btc: BTC price
- pbtc: percent of change in BTC price (btc) between two continuous months.
Since this update, I use new variables, pview2, prep2, ppages2, because variables for percentage of changes between two months in OP look stupid, so I decided to change.
Now, let I explain the formula for variable prep2:
To make it simple, I have a simple dataset like:

Code:

month rep repchange prep2
1 10 na na
2 50 40 na
3 80 30 x

How to calculate x?
x = (80-50)/(50-10)*100
It means I calculate percentage of changes in two period: period 1 (from month 1 to month 2), period 2 (from month 2 to month 3)


Results:
Period of observations (24 months, Oct. 2017 - 31^th Oct. 2019)

In medians, figures for monthly new replies, views, and pages are 6099 (repchange), 52920 (viewchange) and 268 (pagechange), respectively

Code:

. tabstat repchange viewchange pagechange, s(n mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max) c(s)

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   repchange |        24  6066.375  2318.993      6099      4712      7122      2320     12512
  viewchange |        24  84685.42  89092.09     52920   35953.5   76289.5     24348    363534
  pagechange |        24  277.0417  169.5245       268       195       370      -288       626
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Plots

Code:

. list id day month2 year date prep2 pview2 ppages2 pbtc, abb(30)

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     | id   day   month2   year        date    prep2   pview2   ppages2     pbtc |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |  1    31       10   2017   31oct2017        .        .         .        . |
  2. |  2    30       11   2017   30nov2017        .        .         .    53.39 |
  3. |  3    31       12   2017   31dec2017    82.87   -10.09         .    34.74 |
  4. |  4    31        1   2018   31jan2018    -54.6   -87.15    -54.63   -23.12 |
  5. |  5    28        2   2018   28feb2018    76.06    59.05     76.06     4.84 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |  6    31        3   2018   31mar2018    -40.2   -43.82     -43.2   -33.02 |
  7. |  7    30        4   2018   30apr2018   -16.44    -35.1    -36.97    30.29 |
  8. |  8    31        5   2018   31may2018   -38.96    38.61     32.96    -18.5 |
  9. |  9    30        6   2018   30jun2018   104.03     2.49      9.66   -14.58 |
 10. | 10    31        7   2018   31jul2018    -56.4      -26    -27.97    21.54 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 11. | 11    31        8   2018   31aug2018     90.9   184.59    -16.49   -11.63 |
 12. | 12    30        9   2018   30sep2018    -55.2   -17.39      -.64    -4.35 |
 13. | 13    30       10   2018   30oct2018    72.28   192.77      1.92      .14 |
 14. | 14    30       11   2018   30nov2018    56.62   -24.69     128.3   -39.55 |
 15. | 15    31       12   2018   31dec2018    48.74     8.11     33.88    -5.35 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 16. | 16    31        1   2019   31jan2019    -31.2   -44.42    -45.06    -8.97 |
 17. | 17    28        2   2019   28feb2019     4.42   -54.26     53.93    12.78 |
 18. | 18    31        3   2019   31mar2019    -7.04        0    -22.63     5.18 |
 19. | 19    30        4   2019   30apr2019    19.04    48.77     16.35    28.44 |
 20. | 20    31        5   2019   31may2019     2.11       11      2.16    61.31 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 21. | 21    30        6   2019   30jun2019    -1.97     3.82     -2.12    32.48 |
 22. | 22    31        7   2019   31jul2019   -27.45    -17.5     -27.3   -10.74 |
 23. | 23    31        8   2019   31aug2019   -24.76    -31.3    -24.91    -4.45 |
 24. | 24    30        9   2019   30sep2019    23.66    23.15     23.76   -14.14 |
 25. | 25    31       10   2019   31oct2019   -11.48   -27.09     -11.6       11 |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

[JayJuanGee]

As a musician

I think we can all appreciate one of Strung Out's top songs describing the phenomenon of JayJuanGee posts:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhPxGPKOa4E

You got a real problema Roach to be reminded of me because of that song.    

Hello WO Bulls, how are you ?

Did you decide yet if you are going to fund our Crypto Mania Spark that we intend to recreate?

This is even worse than a JayJuanGee post.

ditto.

Roach obsessed, aka one sick pup.   

[JayJuanGee]

Remember when the goal was to get 21BTC, which surely would put any of those folks who had been able to HODL onto that amount as being in a very decent position at $100k per coin, and now there are a lot of meme-ing around the random 6.15BTC goal, which seems to rely on BTC going much higher than $100k per coin in order to really be comfortable.

I guess that part of my point is that amount of BTC goals are going down and down and down.  Of course, we have those who are either with a mediocre budget or are just getting in striving to get to 1BTC and more.  There have surely been some of those folks participating in this thread.  At some point, we are going to have peeps aspiring to get 1 million satoshis... or whatever other reasonable amount becomes our new deflationary goalpost point.

Oh man, how I love this post!
Thanks JJG!

That's a moving target. I just looked at official inflation numbers and it is a woozy.
Basically, dollar lost about 50% in relative value since 30 years ago, therefore, to be "comfortable" in the future you need to take this into consideration, but it is very difficult to do since, historically, forward inflation values were not very predictable.

Even in 2015, there were some folks lingering and trying to reach three digit bitcoins, but it became much more reachable, even for regular people to attempt to accumulate 21 bitcoins... three digits became a bit out of reach.

Yet as BTC's price went up, and then failed to really come back down below $3k, and even only stayed below $4k for a few months, 21BTC became much more unreachable by regular people.

I think that now, we have people who are trying to get seriously into accumulation either shooting for 1 BTC or the 6.15 BTC. 

I hate to look through my old posts regarding myself personally, yet many times, I would take about accumulation goals in terms of what might be reasonable based on evolving prices.  Frequently, also I would talk about some kind of reasonable BTC buying budget in terms of dollars, and then of course that would convert into a quantity of BTC, even while only rarely does someone say, I have $12k to spend over 6 months or something like that.  $12k is a nice number because it is quite divisible and to be able to attempt to stay with round numbers when suggesting what to do.

Sometimes we also realize the large number of people who do not even have their financial lives together sufficiently enough to even be able to afford some trivial amount of emergency expense, like $400.  I personally believe that those people should NOT be investing into bitcoin until they first get their finances in sufficient order so that they are prepared for at least a  $400 expense and also have their cashflow projections in sufficient enough order in order to project how much cash they have in reserves for a minimum of 6 months.  You can get away with a shorter period of projecting your expenses if you are single and if you do not complicated expenses, but as soon as you add in a family or a business or some other payments such as a house or a car payment and other things like that, then you have to project out further - 18months or more. 

Of course, the shorter the time out from the present, then you are going to be more accurate with your cash projections, and the further out that you go, the cashflow projections are going to serve as outlines, and surely the more specific that you can be in projecting, including projecting an ongoing cashflow cushion then the more accurate you are going to be and the fewer surprises that you are going to have, even if you run into some emergencies along the way.

Once all that is in place, then you can add you bitcoin buying/accumulation budget into the mix... which then you decide what are your tentative BTC accumulation goals in 6 months?  one year?  two years? five years?  Gotta walk before you run, and even consider that some goals are going to be harder to reach than others and certain goals are going to be reasonable and prudent...   Do you involve gambling in your goal creation?  I hope not.  Not until you reach a certain stash, then maybe, thereafter, you can establish a side gambling stash.

[JayJuanGee]

Call me a skeptic, but seems a bit overly bearish to suggest that bitcoin is not going to break above old ATH until October 2024-ish.

Thats bullish not bearish, because 2024 is a fair way into the next decade and we are speculating that Bitcoin will be turning over doing well and we know the situation with FIAT is that they degrade vs the long term debt obligations made.    It will break that ATH and likely have the momentum to make a much higher one after that much time and settle after any profit taking above that previous ATH.
  It could also be taken as a positive as leaving a wider population of people multiple years to accumulate, get involved for the long term while noticing that BTC isnt going away making its longevity a continuing reason to hold it.    Achieving 20k by xmas on the other hand represents volatility and uncertainty because even if its a higher price it was massively unexpected by most, going that far that fast shows imbalance is there in an uncontrollable way almost.
  Far more people will drop BTC for a quick profit if its 20k by xmas or any short time, the alternatives will still be attractive and seemingly viable.   By 2024 with a strong BTC it will be in sharp contrast to people having lost alot of value in FIAT and there will be even less motivation to hold that certain ongoing loss.   I'll take the situation where BTC is a long term positive in the world for sure any day.

BTC is positive above 200 day average for the weekend but with maybe 9500 part of some triangle formation I dont think its moving much at the moment.

I stand by my earlier statement

Your further explanation sounds even more pie in the sky (as well as bearish) as if bitcoin is going to take some kind of slow and steady path.

If bitcoin takes a slow and steady path it is largely showing that people are not interested rather than inspiring confidence in its adoption.

The hype cycles in bitcoin might be a bit dramatic and traumatizing for peeps who don't know how to handle them, but in the end, they are both good for bitcoin and nearly inevitable in this kind of a free market that involves both  sound money and a paradigm shifting disruptive asset.

[JayJuanGee]

not that i had not earned or mined, 
i had mostly lost them, in wallets, exchanges, trusting (so called) friends,

I registered here in February 2014, but I had gotten into bitcoin in late November 2013 (right at the peak of that particular exponential growth period).  You registered here about 9 months before me, and BTC prices were nearly 80% less expensive when i got started in BTC.

Actually, at that time (and before that), Money and I were interested in something else... something very stupid:



*this is about erepublik.com*

We were stacking bazookas instead of bitcoin.

You dumb fucks!!!!!!!!!


hahahahahaha  ... that is funny, Raja, if not ironic.

I did not even know about anything specifically related to bitcoin until November 2013 - except in November 2013, bitcoin was on my list of "things to look into" as of about September or October 2013, but I had not look into it at all until November.. go figure.

[makrospex]

OK, i'd need some opinions on this prototype piece i experimentally fucked up, taking hours and days to take it this far.
Now i have got a last piece of ebony left, which will serve for the production blank, where all flaws of the protype should be eradicated.
This will serve the purpose of being a card protector for future texas hold'em games.

Looks very interesting. Is this carved in ebony by machine (CNC or laser) or by hand?  
Is you're criticism that the logo is not centered on the wood?  Maybe run another try on the back side?

Carved with a cnc laser. It will be cut out circular and sanded, coated, sanded, polished. (short version).
The other side is the BTC logo. It's just not coated, but will be done on the final piece, where i also carve an outer circle as a guide for cutting.
I could cut it out beforehand, would be easier, but harder to center so that both sides match (one would be off by a few fractions of mm, but you would notice).
Uncoated looks good too, but misses the sparkle of the silver epoxy filling, but conserves the wooden appeal. Coated looks more like plastic.
It's my fifth piece in epoxy work, a test of murphy's law essentially, the only thing i got good experience with is the laser carving. Ebony is so hard, i need two passes of carving to make the grooves deep enough for filling.
A good friend of mine gets 50 yo next week, i make a similar chip for him with "50" instead iof "10" on walnut, this will probably be the last time i will do something like this again.

[VB1001]

Is the Increasing US Debt A Stage Setter for Bitcoin? – A Realistic Take

The United States national debt has now crossed $23 Trillion. Furthermore, debt per the United States citizen sums up to $69, 724. In a way, central banks are paving way for the smooth transition of Bitcoin into traditional finance.

While traditional finance enjoys the trust of the major US population, Bitcoin is here to stay. Considering the fact that Bitcoin and other crypto-assets are anti-inflationary and have a controlled supply, it is likely that in the future that Bitcoin continues to map the international market and eventually becomes a better bet than the inflated dollar.

https://coingape.com/increasing-us-debt-stage-setter-bitcoin-realistic-take/

Good morning WO,s take care of your Bitcoin.

[AlcoHoDL]

Guys, have you noticed that she looks like that Japanese fake Satoshi dude?
LOL!

[Cryptotourist]

Hello WO Bulls, how are you ?

Did you decide yet if you are going to fund our Crypto Mania Spark that we intend to recreate?

I'll volunteer to handle escrow. No funds transferred to you until the target is met before the stated deadline. That sounds fair.

No Dabs, it does NOT sound fair.
I don't understand what's your position on this matter. You are trying to facilitate/help a team of scammers, scam us?
Do you have that little faith for your holdings?

These cocksuckers are trying to make the most of what is inevitably going to happen (BTC>moon), and we should pay them for that?
Personally it doesn't seem appropriate, watching you offer meaningless escrow. It should be crystal clear that their only intention is to scam.

[makrospex]

Hello WO Bulls, how are you ?

Did you decide yet if you are going to fund our Crypto Mania Spark that we intend to recreate?

I'll volunteer to handle escrow. No funds transferred to you until the target is met before the stated deadline. That sounds fair.

Krippletonium back again?
Not finished giving us the laughs?
This glass is empty, my friend 

[jbreher]

I posted this weeks ago!!!!!!!!

Hmm. Oct 31 is not exactly weeks ago, seeing as it is literally the following day, but let's go with your delusions of grandeur.

Apparently the maximum amount he could have possibly "lost" was less than 0.1 BTC (if he wasn't making up everything):

orly? the most any party could lose in any situation involving LN is 0.1 BTC? Tell me more.

Nevermind the absurdity of hitching your wagon to something incapable of paying a month's rent anywhere I might wanna live.

Granted it was before breher overlooked it to claim it was a farce, but still,

WTF are you on about? Point to where I declared it "a farce". You can't, you greasy lying motherfucker.  I merely asked for evidence.

[jbreher]

edit: I fucked the quotes below up, and in my drunken stupor, don't see a way to fix it. Sorry. Hopefully it will all make sense in the morning.

Palazzo Vecchio, Florence

WO gang!
Time for a more pixel game!


A very easy one!

Ai! Firenze! Largely acknowledged as the nursery of double-entry bookkeeping. And house of some of humanity's finest artworks. I spent a New Years Eve there - prolly before most all y'all been born.

Here's to triple-entry bookkeeping!
 (breaking) Opa!