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Question: When $60K? (EST time zone)
Feb. 21 - 7 (5.7%)
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Feb. 26 - 9 (7.4%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25182138 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
Searing
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November 22, 2019, 11:28:00 PM

I would not keep it in Fiat. Stocks or real estate or what ever brings me 5% a year.

 This. With a good managed portfolio, I've been pulling in 10-12% over the last three years on my traditional investments. Very happy with the numbers I'm seeing.

 Does not make sense to keep money liquid, just sitting there, earning basic sub 0.5% interest rates in a traditional checking account; take a number you are comfortable with not touching for at least a year, and put it into a managed fund, if you can. The fee's are more than made up for with the profits you will likely realize.

 In my experience, anyway.

Well, if what you say is actually accurate, then you are pulling out way the fuck more than what is within the realms of conventional recommendations, which is to pull out within the area of 4%.  Of course, any of us can tweak recommendations because as people we have discretion to do whatever the fuck we like; however, your pulling out 2.5x to 3x of the conventional recommendations seem a bit much.. and I suppose that within you assertion, you might be suggesting that you are able to achieve returns that are on average 2.5x to 3.5x greater than normal peeps?

Could be. Could be.  But doesn't seem too likely, especially if you consider real long term projections about what actual returns are.  Of course, in recent years, we have BTC that can be added into the mix regarding our actual returns, so in that regard, our actual returns could end up getting way the fuck skewed to the upside if BTC continues to generally (and even quite exponentially) outperform traditional asset classes.

Mine is a managed 4-5% for the last year on traditional investments. I did put windows and siding on the house this year as well as a newer truck ...this because i expect a pretty

good 20-40% recession coming along soon. I took the house/truck money out of the traditional investments to take some 'cream' off the top for my view of a pretty harsh recession.

Guess I forgot about BTC's version of such now that we are down to $7,250 USD now I see.

What the heck bought about 0.266 BTC in the last couple of days...so wtf. Been in this too long to lame out now. The 2013 BTC Kool-Aid seems to be keeping me buying on the lows

(dust or not) it seems.

If I'm wrong with the current BTC hoard on buying in now and monthly, big whoop, I'll have much bigger problems with the BTC I hodl if that is the case for any of that to matter...

If I'm right, however, I will look like (and claim) I had it all planned. (even though I just placed a bet...BTC always drama)

oh well, chump or champ we will see in the next couple of years I guess...

Plan on buying more BTC whatever the price on Dec 1st, 2019....would be nice if I could keep up monthly buying 'some' as a habit...no matter the amount.Smiley

Anyway IF my recession idea of 20-40% correction on the traditional stock market, etc. Bitcoin will come back. If not....well it was fun!

later

Brad
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November 22, 2019, 11:29:55 PM

P.S. i would like this to happen but let's be real

Maybe you wouldn't like this to happen because price is not a description of quality or value.   We can get $trillion on that chart for all it matters, at that point it'd be talking about dollar and what happened there.   I see gold bugs talking similarly, the gold never changes but the quality of what it measures against does which I generally agree with.

The easiest counter to those long term curve charts is the rate of change is not consistent.  Even from looking at the halvening effect it is not the same every time and BTC has to take the training wheels off and rely on something less scheduled then block rewards.

Quote

That cartoon is great, market effect is like the monkeys paw.   Gold especially is just a measure of excess capital, tradable capacity which is what makes it useful between nations.   If capitalism is anything useful, its about the average gain to society but we dont exactly have capitalism now.   I do expect BTC to either be a gain to society or the price will be irrelevant as it wont be replacing dollar just sitting alongside and gaining a number only from sharing its inflationary effects somehow.  The monkey paw wish for higher price is never quite what we expect, measuring in dollars is hard to say because its not going to be the same dollar in a few years and we're all inside the bubble till we get that change I guess.


The only simple conclusion I have for price movement today is that we fell below the yearly average price but then regained that measure and may close the week above it possibly.   Similar price around in 2018 had the weekly bars showing possible support for todays low price.

Where I marked the purple line is todays low on late 2018 weekly bars


And this is April 2018 action in relation to a yearly average
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November 22, 2019, 11:31:20 PM

And also, the Iraqi defense minister is a Swedish citizen and on welfare, you heard it here first.
https://nyheteridag.se/iraqi-defense-minister-is-receiving-welfare-in-sweden-investigated-by-police/

He is also gay.
https://nyheteridag.se/i-want-to-fk-you-sex-sex-sex-iraqi-defense-minister-sexually-harassing-young-male/

No it's not a joke.
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November 22, 2019, 11:33:54 PM

Wekkel
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yes


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November 22, 2019, 11:34:15 PM

Suggesting caution for too much optimism, I dig. But posting chart after chart from the past that proved wrong ...  Shocked

Well, I have enough examples of those on my own  Grin
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November 23, 2019, 12:10:47 AM


 It's an odd story and very sad for the women in his life.  Nobody should have to live in fear of the next beating.
 
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November 23, 2019, 12:23:41 AM

About the Tesla pickup, I LOVE IT!!
It's exactly what I've been dreaming of ever since watching Blade Runner and Alien in the 80s.
I never liked the sedan models with their ugly rounded 90s look, but this one, just what I have been dreaming of since the 80s.
That's my next car after the new blow of top in 2021. Thank you Elon.

You can't argue taste, but it looks like an APC.
I wonder if APCs could be had, used.
I checked out model 3: it is certainly not worth the asking price ($42K) because the cabin is so small.
Model S is nice, but about twice the price of a midsize beemer.
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November 23, 2019, 12:24:14 AM

It's only 2:05PM ET and we’ve already traded 2,367 contracts today, beating our previous record of 1,756

https://twitter.com/Bakkt/status/1197958340648800257?s=20
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November 23, 2019, 12:25:29 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

This is within the odds, and I think they are very high: The level of Bitcoin support could trigger an explosive movement of bulls, if defended.

Quote
In the near-term, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will pause its descent at this level, as the $6,900 to $7,200 range marks the crypto’s “golden pocket,” which may allow it to find some much needed buying pressure that catalyzes a short-term rally.



Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/11/22/bitcoin-support-level-may-spark-explosive-bull-movement-if-its-defended/
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November 23, 2019, 12:31:05 AM

Told you guys were in the great long-term downtrend. There is no substantial up from here. Yeah, sure, it'll wobble around, but we are definitely witnessing the "slow" death of bitcoin. There is not going to be another all time high. No more sustained above $10k prices anymore. That's in the past. I know it sucks for a lot of you to hear this, but it's just done. Play the market if you want, play a long term low leverage short if you really want to make money, but bitcoin has run it's course. 2 years from now bitcoin will not be above $10k, that's guaranteed.

Hardly guaranteed. There is a lot of uncertainty on a 2 year view, and it is one scenario that BTC may be experiencing slow death, but surely it is not possible to guarantee any particular outcome ?

What is the basis for your view that this is a long term downtrend ?

...and shorts are pretty hazardous, so I can see why you said 'low leverage'.  
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November 23, 2019, 12:45:51 AM

This is within the odds, and I think they are very high: The level of Bitcoin support could trigger an explosive movement of bulls, if defended.




Maybe, but perhaps not soon. Price is now close to better support. It may take a lot of time around these levels, but at least there is the possibility to pause and stop the medium term downtrend.
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November 23, 2019, 12:54:06 AM

About the Tesla pickup, I LOVE IT!!
It's exactly what I've been dreaming of ever since watching Blade Runner and Alien in the 80s.
I never liked the sedan models with their ugly rounded 90s look, but this one, just what I have been dreaming of since the 80s.
That's my next car after the new blow of top in 2021. Thank you Elon.

You can't argue taste, but it looks like an APC.
I wonder if APCs could be had, used.
I checked out model 3: it is certainly not worth the asking price ($42K) because the cabin is so small.
Model S is nice, but about twice the price of a midsize beemer.

I like APCs, yes they can be bought. Every now and then you see them for sale here in Sweden, mostly old KPs.

https://kvibergs.se/event/lotdetails/2258001/terrangbil-m42-skp-samlarobjekt-endast-379-mil-gar-bra

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KP-bil
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November 23, 2019, 12:57:09 AM

$5000 BTC for black friday.
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November 23, 2019, 01:00:52 AM

Published on 21 March 2014, 15:06 UTC: Fake China Bitcoin Ban pushes BTC price below $600

https://www.ccn.com/fake-china-bitcoin-ban-pushes-btc-price-below-600/



Bitcoin's parabolic uptrend which started in January 2015 is still intact. Now nearly touching support again, for the first time since March 2019. #buythedip




Peter Brandt:
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November 23, 2019, 01:35:01 AM

#HODLsleep #LETtheDUMBASSESkeepTALKING Kiss
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November 23, 2019, 01:44:05 AM
Last edit: November 23, 2019, 03:24:49 AM by realr0ach



If the evil cult of Judaism admits they're running an unelected, treasonous, 5th column, deep state, it looks like an open and shut case for public execution in a court of military law since such a thing is not supposed to exist.
Since Jews as a whole are criminal, inbred psychopaths, they will likely not get the message until the entire 'deep state' apparatus like the CFR is tried in military court, convicted, and publicly hanged, from the CFR president, all the way down to every single lowly typist secretary that works there.  Then they can try and hang the numerous other Jewish criminal rackets posing as "think tanks" one by one as well.
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November 23, 2019, 01:59:43 AM

I spent three months of my life on btctalk.
Oh, well.
As Bob might say:
"Sheeeeit"
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November 23, 2019, 03:11:29 AM

Could be. Could be.

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November 23, 2019, 03:33:06 AM

Told you guys were in the great long-term downtrend. There is no substantial up from here. Yeah, sure, it'll wobble around, but we are definitely witnessing the "slow" death of bitcoin. There is not going to be another all time high. No more sustained above $10k prices anymore. That's in the past. I know it sucks for a lot of you to hear this, but it's just done. Play the market if you want, play a long term low leverage short if you really want to make money, but bitcoin has run it's course. 2 years from now bitcoin will not be above $10k, that's guaranteed.

I love you are hedging your 10k quote there since the last time you said it would not go above 10k again it did...

Nice to see you... nice timing.
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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November 23, 2019, 03:46:13 AM

...edited...
hahahahaha

You seem to have some correct in you from time to time, lambie bambie.

When there are posts about extravagances, then that seems to be an opposite behavior to HODL and accumulate... especially when the BTC prices are dipping.

Seems that we might need more McDonalds posts and possible ways of frugality during these kinds of trying times.

If you have a substantial stash of coin, retired off it, need income but are loath to sell at these prices, consider earning weekly interest on a portion of holdings through Celsius.  It's way better than selling.  
... Then again, by lending, am I providing the central bankers a means to drive the price down I wonder?

I don't rest understand these aspects of market mechanics.

A lot of people get distracted and lured into interest bearing products because they believe that the return on BTC is not good enough for them. Seems too risky to me, and also seems unnecessary, but if you want to trust your coins with third parties, then so be it.  That's your choice.

Many times people who borrow BTC are actually dumping those BTC so yes, there is that aspect to it, on a more macro level.

I lend a portion of my btc Stash for weekly interest payments because I have no regular income investments at all, it's in btc mostly, and a bit in managed investments.  Being retired, I need income, and btc lending is the most obvious source to put it to work.

Well, that is fair enough.  Each person has to consider his/her own situation and what investment options that s/he has including what other investments that s/he has, which might include various forms of cashflow that might be available, including whether cash flow comes from other places.

Surely, I would not recommend any kind of diversification of investments that only involve BTC or have no other investments or has all money only in BTC, but whatever each of us has different situations whether we have to start drawing from our BTC or if we have other sources upon which we can draw  - and of course, if you are retired, then either you have an income from your retirement and/or your accumulated assets or you don't, so if you have no other accumulated assets that can  draw income and/or you do not have an income from other retirement plans, then yeah, you might not have any other choice but to start to attempt to earn an income off of your BTC stash.  Does not seem to be a preferred situation, but it is what it is in terms of where you are at and your age or health conditions or your mere choice to go into retirement status (if not choosing prematurely, only you would know the answers to those various questions).


I will never sell my btc Stash at below ath prices if I can live off interest, as a matter of principle.  But is it really more principled and better for btc to lend instead of sell?

Those are factors that you need to weigh for yourself the extent to which it would be better to lend than to sell, and not everyone is going to come to the same conclusion.  I am pretty sure that I am not going to come to that conclusion, but my plan is likely going to play out differently, since I had considered the most intense aspect of my BTC accumulation phase to have been in 2014, and even though I still accumulate some BTC, especially on large price swing, my whole system has gone more into a kind of maintenance stage.  I am thinking 4-5 years in which I might go into more of a liquidation phase, and currently my going into a liquidation phase has more to do with other things going on in my life rather than purely considerations of BTC price, because currently, I would ONLY not sell BTC if they BTC price were below $5k, otherwise, my liquidation phase (if I were to feel some need to go into it) is already tentatively authorized (by me) so long as the BTC price is over $5k.  By the way, early liquidation (which is theorized as a kind of maintenance of principle) authorizes a withdrawal of 1% of value per quarter, but if I go into a more aggressive liquidation that involves selling principle, then that would likely mean that I either have some emergency situation or some thoughts of needs to attempt to liquidate before end of life, if such a health situation or age were in consideration of such timeline issues.


I figure if central bankers are borrowing mine and others btc through middlemen like celsius.network to dump it, assuming they have infinite Fiat to play with, the price will go down as long as people are willing to lend.  But if deep pocket buyers ever buy more than what's available to lend, the price has to shoot up like fireworks when they cover their shorts by actually buying.

Those things could happen, but your decision to lend BTC through celsius network or through any other platform like that should be made on an individual level in terms of whether you believe that it is a prudent risk for you to leave your private keys with some other entity including the pay off that you get or if there might be better ways to either generate income (whether from BTC or otherwise).

I will concede that I had gained some interest on BTC that I had on Bitfinex during the 2017 market, and I recall that a lot of guys made a killing on Poloniex during that time, and even though I chose to make some BTC (or stack some sats) at that time, I have subsequently come to different conclusions about the level of risk, and that was only less than 10% of my total BTC, anyhow, but still, I no longer believe it to be prudent risk for myself, but I understand that guys (and gal) are going come to differing conclusions regarding the amount of risk that they are willing to take for the pay off that they believe that they will get through the use of such lending service(s).


Increasing volatility will not be good for growing adoption, yet isn't it better to lend than to sell?

It is not necessarily better to lend than sell.  You are taking on additional risk, and that is a choice that you make, and not everyone will conclude it to be a prudent risk.

Furthermore, there are also ways to make money through volatility, and surely volatility are one of the most guaranteed to happen phenomenons in bitcoin, moreso whether it's price is going up or going down, it is almost inevitably going to be volatile for a decently long period of time into the future, and if you know how to play volatility you can either make money off of that or at least attempt to use volatility to your advantage.

If I had a do over I would have sold off half my holdings earlier, but it's so easy to get greedy.

I don't recommend playing around like that, and sure it is easy to make those kinds of proclamations retrospectively, but it is really hard to predict the BTC price direction, so it might not pan out too well to be selling large portions of your BTC and believe that you know that a correction is coming, when it may or may not come in such a way that would allow you to sufficiently profit over having had just held through the ups and downs and just keep accumulating BTC like a long term investment rather than trying to play short term moves with large amounts of your BTC stash.
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