Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Phil_S]

And now we're back to 19400. Like nothing happened.

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[Lambie Slayer]

Beartards rekt again. 24k this week?

[soullyG]

I love Bitcoin, it really makes you feel alive. Even better than doing blow off a hooker's ass from the top of a moving Lambo

[Dabs]

Don't forget what Hal Finney predicted more than ten years ago, or rather his napkin math calculation. (TLDR = $10m USD / BTC) Still, that's going to take a few more years (perhaps another decade.)

Not a prediction, more like top limit estimate: the ceiling that bitcoin price cannot reach.

At that time, which was 10 years ago. In the future, the money supply would, of course, be slightly larger. But who is to say that new coiners would skip fiat altogether ... ... which would imply that it's not going into any M1 or M2 or anything...

[VB1001]

Congrats!!!WO and also to all who visit us, bears, bulls, weak hands, trolls, everyone is welcome, we have closed November with a new ATH and the year is not over yet.

 
#StrongHats

[soullyG]

=> at what point are HOLDlers willing to start parting with their coins?

I don't know how I could gauge that or make an educated guess on where that level would be. My gut reaction would be that $50k would make a few large holdlers nervous and that $100k can be expected to be a big 'cash out' (=redistribute) moment.

If anyone has a better scientific approach to this, let that person step forward.

I feel the closest we can get is roughly = length of time hodled * number of coins hodled * personal moon target

The problem is that last variable is subjective and likely to change every few weeks/months/years!

[cAPSLOCK]

Don't forget what Hal Finney predicted more than ten years ago, or rather his napkin math calculation. (TLDR = $10m USD / BTC) Still, that's going to take a few more years (perhaps another decade.)

I came to $3M / BTC after a quick calculation (roughly $60 Trillion divided by 21 million) while pondering the idea of GBTC buying more BTC daily than mined daily. On the latter: if that's the case and we are truly in a new phase where there is relentless and relatively price agnostic buying on a continued basis above daily coin production, the question is simply:

=> at what point are HOLDlers willing to start parting with their coins?

I don't know how I could gauge that or make an educated guess on where that level would be. My gut reaction would be that $50k would make a few large holdlers nervous and that $100k can be expected to be a big 'cash out' (=redistribute) moment.

If anyone has a better scientific approach to this, let that person step forward.

It is the ultimate marshmallow challenge.  Many of us have lowered our time preference so much we are just not going to let go of much even when it does go up quite a bit.

For me personally the formula revolves around comfortable retirement and a little diversification into property.  I just don't want to spend much money on stupid shit, or even living large.  And I am acutely aware that the longer I wait the more I will be left with in the end.

That is where the real crux is, in my opinion.  Where that point is for each whale/minnow.

[Lambie Slayer]

Don't forget what Hal Finney predicted more than ten years ago, or rather his napkin math calculation. (TLDR = $10m USD / BTC) Still, that's going to take a few more years (perhaps another decade.)

I came to $3M / BTC after a quick calculation (roughly $60 Trillion divided by 21 million) while pondering the idea of GBTC buying more BTC daily than mined daily. On the latter: if that's the case and we are truly in a new phase where there is relentless and relatively price agnostic buying on a continued basis above daily coin production, the question is simply:

=> at what point are HOLDlers willing to start parting with their coins?

I don't know how I could gauge that or make an educated guess on where that level would be. My gut reaction would be that $50k would make a few large holdlers nervous and that $100k can be expected to be a big 'cash out' (=redistribute) moment.

If anyone has a better scientific approach to this, let that person step forward.

The 100k mark will be interesting, yes Hodlers will sell some large amounts to fund 100k parties across the globe, but as much of these funds will be given to hookers and coke dealers attending the parties, we can expect said whores and dealers to want in on the action and to invest much of their earnings into Bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

Can someone help me, from what website is this screenshot ?

The screenshot comes from http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD

Specifically, I am pretty sure that is Bitstamp as it was passing through (to $19,918) as nutildah said in his post that he did not catch the exact top.  

Well, it was fun watching today's All Time High, caught it a few dollars short of the actual:



Happy to be here at the WO to do it.

Since I started typing this the price dropped to $19450 $18933 briefly, so we are all poor again. Shit.

Whoops... I should have read the very next post... soullyG answers..

It's from Bitcoinity

https://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD

[dragonvsandroid]

Where are all the rockets in this thread that were promised? 

I thought we made new ATH on all exchanges today? Disappointed.

[True Myth]

Don't forget what Hal Finney predicted more than ten years ago, or rather his napkin math calculation. (TLDR = $10m USD / BTC) Still, that's going to take a few more years (perhaps another decade.)

I came to $3M / BTC after a quick calculation (roughly $60 Trillion divided by 21 million) while pondering the idea of GBTC buying more BTC daily than mined daily. On the latter: if that's the case and we are truly in a new phase where there is relentless and relatively price agnostic buying on a continued basis above daily coin production, the question is simply:

=> at what point are HOLDlers willing to start parting with their coins?

I don't know how I could gauge that or make an educated guess on where that level would be. My gut reaction would be that $50k would make a few large holdlers nervous and that $100k can be expected to be a big 'cash out' (=redistribute) moment.

If anyone has a better scientific approach to this, let that person step forward.

The 100k mark will be interesting, yes Hodlers will sell some large amounts to fund 100k parties across the globe, but as much of these funds will be given to hookers and coke dealers attending the parties, we can expect said whores and dealers to want in on the action and to invest much of their earnings into Bitcoin.

FYI



*Edit - at current prices of said coke and BTC

[JayJuanGee]

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can.

Boompph.  Ouch...

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can.

Boompph.  Ouch...

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can.

Boompph.  Ouch...


One of these times it's gonna make it over.

Seems to me that we are still in no man's land.. recall in early 2017, BTC prices came within about 20 dollars of the previous ATH of $1,163... on January 4/5 and then took a bit of a vacation until about late February when it finally surpassed the previous ATH..  Stayed at, near or slightly above previous ATH for  about 3 weeks, and then made one last sub ATH dippening in mid-March to slowly rise above by early April and to never see previous ATH again...

That's part of the reason that it is considered (by some) as "no man's land" because in the whole scheme of things taking a few months to get through no man's land might feel like a long time, it really could be problematic to attempt to trade it or to expect to sell and to buy back lower because there is a kind of inclination towards UPpity.. and a kind of UPpity that causes a "we not coming back" dynamics.

In this situation, we have only been in no man's land since about November 16... and really all does seem to be "going as planned" even though the specifics cannot really be foretold.. and sure, it may not work out the same, but still seems to me that the evidence is still pointing towards very decent odds that we are in a "passing through" territory rather than "let's get worried" territory, and maybe 6 months from now (and maybe shorter) this location will be largely, if not completely behind us... and I am not even saying that we might not revisit this area at a later date  - which surely could happen - because one thing about the future, is it remains much more difficult to figure out before it happens rather than after it had already happened, but then by the time we figure it out, it is no longer the future.  Go figure.   

[strawbs]

Where are all the rockets in this thread that were promised? 

I thought we made new ATH on all exchanges today? Disappointed.

Waiting for $20k - ATH was too easy.

[Phil_S]

Don't forget what Hal Finney predicted more than ten years ago, or rather his napkin math calculation. (TLDR = $10m USD / BTC) Still, that's going to take a few more years (perhaps another decade.)

Not a prediction, more like top limit estimate: the ceiling that bitcoin price cannot reach.

At that time, which was 10 years ago.

Yes, top limit estimate, in 2009 dollars. Not a prediction.

[JayJuanGee]

wonder what price ill wake up to. might have to break my tradition of not checking the price till after ive caught up on the WO.

well apparently i was rich when i started reading the WO this morning (5 pages behind or so) but by the time i caught up and actually checked the price im poor again. maybe rich by noon?

so just another day for the honeybadger really.

I agree that it is NOT easy being a bitcoin HODLer.

Going from rags to riches and back to rags again... and then hoping that riches will come back... at some point.. hopefully soon ^tm.

Kind of wished that when I was in that transitory "rich" status, I would have cashed some out.. and valued my wealth in fiat.....



hahahahahaha




NOT

=> at what point are HOLDlers willing to start parting with their coins?

You seem to be arguing definitionally regarding what is a "HODLer"  

A true HODLer would not depart with his/her coins until... blah blah blah.

Hardly makes sense because there are all kinds of variations in the positions of peeps, including their entry points.

Of course, there are perceptions regarding whether the price is going up from any given point or if it is going to reverse.

I don't know how I could gauge that or make an educated guess on where that level would be. My gut reaction would be that $50k would make a few large holdlers nervous and that $100k can be expected to be a big 'cash out' (=redistribute) moment.

Sure there are various round numbers in which there might be some psychological hang-ups and consideration that the price might reverse.

If anyone has a better scientific approach to this, let that person step forward.

I'll refer you to BTC price prediction models of stock to flow, 4 year fractal and exponential scurve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.  

Looks like no matter how hard they dump, it goes only up. When 20k is broken, all hell will broken lose.

Agree.. the battle is futile.. but does not stop it from being waged...

Sure it could take weeks or even months to play out... but still.. odds are against fighting it... but NOT going to stop the wisheners for DOWNity to have hopenium and to press their luck.

Don't forget what Hal Finney predicted more than ten years ago, or rather his napkin math calculation. (TLDR = $10m USD / BTC) Still, that's going to take a few more years (perhaps another decade.)

I came to $3M / BTC after a quick calculation (roughly $60 Trillion divided by 21 million) while pondering the idea of GBTC buying more BTC daily than mined daily. On the latter: if that's the case and we are truly in a new phase where there is relentless and relatively price agnostic buying on a continued basis above daily coin production, the question is simply:

=> at what point are HOLDlers willing to start parting with their coins?

I don't know how I could gauge that or make an educated guess on where that level would be. My gut reaction would be that $50k would make a few large holdlers nervous and that $100k can be expected to be a big 'cash out' (=redistribute) moment.

If anyone has a better scientific approach to this, let that person step forward.

The 100k mark will be interesting, yes Hodlers will sell some large amounts to fund 100k parties across the globe, but as much of these funds will be given to hookers and coke dealers attending the parties, we can expect said whores and dealers to want in on the action and to invest much of their earnings into Bitcoin.

You left out Lambo dealers... You fuck!!!!!   

[Lambie Slayer]

Gentz, I know we have spent years plotting things like the 100k party, but I have had my mind on another festivity for WO's to participate in......

This could be done either in groups or individually......

Its something I think deep down you all want to do, whether you will admit it or not......

Something that with the right WO hand sign in the right pic could have legendary implications that resonate across the Bitcoin universe......

A trend that could result in the unfortunate(but still worthwhile) extinction of several species of mammals.....


What I am proposing is for some noble WO member to travel deep into the heart of Carolina and......

KILL A BEAR (then flash the WO hand sign in a pic )



https://www.carolinasportsman.com/features/do-it-yourself-carolina-bear-hunting/

We could even have a small BTC bounty and whoever kills the bear w the WO sign first then other members would send a donation to their address as a token of appreciation. I certainly would make a donation if someone beats me to the first kill.  


 

[Lambie Slayer]

wonder what price ill wake up to. might have to break my tradition of not checking the price till after ive caught up on the WO.

well apparently i was rich when i started reading the WO this morning (5 pages behind or so) but by the time i caught up and actually checked the price im poor again. maybe rich by noon?

so just another day for the honeybadger really.

I agree that it is NOT easy being a bitcoin HODLer.

Going from rags to riches and back to rags again... and then hoping that riches will come back... at some point.. hopefully soon ^tm.

Kind of wished that when I was in that transitory "rich" status, I would have cashed some out.. and valued my wealth in fiat.....



hahahahahaha




NOT

=> at what point are HOLDlers willing to start parting with their coins?

You seem to be arguing definitionally regarding what is a "HODLer"  

A true HODLer would not depart with his/her coins until... blah blah blah.

Hardly makes sense because there are all kinds of variations in the positions of peeps, including their entry points.

Of course, there are perceptions regarding whether the price is going up from any given point or if it is going to reverse.

I don't know how I could gauge that or make an educated guess on where that level would be. My gut reaction would be that $50k would make a few large holdlers nervous and that $100k can be expected to be a big 'cash out' (=redistribute) moment.

Sure there are various round numbers in which there might be some psychological hang-ups and consideration that the price might reverse.

If anyone has a better scientific approach to this, let that person step forward.

I'll refer you to BTC price prediction models of stock to flow, 4 year fractal and exponential scurve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.  

Looks like no matter how hard they dump, it goes only up. When 20k is broken, all hell will broken lose.

Agree.. the battle is futile.. but does not stop it from being waged...

Sure it could take weeks or even months to play out... but still.. odds are against fighting it... but NOT going to stop the wisheners for DOWNity to have hopenium and to press their luck.

Don't forget what Hal Finney predicted more than ten years ago, or rather his napkin math calculation. (TLDR = $10m USD / BTC) Still, that's going to take a few more years (perhaps another decade.)

I came to $3M / BTC after a quick calculation (roughly $60 Trillion divided by 21 million) while pondering the idea of GBTC buying more BTC daily than mined daily. On the latter: if that's the case and we are truly in a new phase where there is relentless and relatively price agnostic buying on a continued basis above daily coin production, the question is simply:

=> at what point are HOLDlers willing to start parting with their coins?

I don't know how I could gauge that or make an educated guess on where that level would be. My gut reaction would be that $50k would make a few large holdlers nervous and that $100k can be expected to be a big 'cash out' (=redistribute) moment.

If anyone has a better scientific approach to this, let that person step forward.

The 100k mark will be interesting, yes Hodlers will sell some large amounts to fund 100k parties across the globe, but as much of these funds will be given to hookers and coke dealers attending the parties, we can expect said whores and dealers to want in on the action and to invest much of their earnings into Bitcoin.

You left out Lambo dealers... You fuck!!!!!   

When you're right, you're right. Apologies to all you Lambo dealers trawling WO daily looking for future customers. 

[Torque]

t is the ultimate marshmallow challenge.  Many of us have lowered our time preference so much we are just not going to let go of much even when it does go up quite a bit.

For me personally the formula revolves around comfortable retirement and a little diversification into property.  I just don't want to spend much money on stupid shit, or even living large.  And I am acutely aware that the longer I wait the more I will be left with in the end.

That is where the real crux is, in my opinion.  Where that point is for each whale/minnow.

You sir, are very wise.

Anyone not following a similar recommendation/approach is going to end up with massive regrets before they die.

I see so many here joking about blowing their bitcoin "winnings" on fancy cars, frivolous shit and such, and inwardly I know some of them aren't really joking.

[Lambie Slayer]

http://www.buffalocreekguideservice.com/services/black-bear/

"Black Bear hunts are conducted out of Hyde County, North Carolina. This land has more Black Bear per square mile than anywhere in the world. The bears in NC do not hibernate, and huge tracts of farmland with corn and soybean fields surround this area."

"North Carolina is a “natural bait” only state and therefore we use corn and peanuts to lure in our bears. "



Its all starting to make sense now. In a far away land called Carolina, they literally use corn to lure bears in so they can kill them. Its all connected and part of the cosmic plan.

[Wekkel]

Saylor:

You don't have to invest all your money in #Bitcoin, just the money you want to keep.

https://t.co/bQjYkvRa1S

Haha, I love this guy.